patrick.net

Undoctored says

Is this just a long term trend reaching a tipping point, or is it a sign of something serious happening suddenly with the subscriber base? Could this be in any way related to that 40% jump in life insurance claims?

Thats a good thought. paedoflix expected growth of 2.5M subs, but ended up losing 200k subs for the quarter, and claim 700k was due to russia, so if we adjust for that, we end up with growth of 0.5M vs expected 2.5M. So a gap of 2M.

I think the us has around 3M deaths per year. That insurance company says 40% increase in, I think, all cause mortality (except covid deaths) of working age people. But I would think most annual deaths come from the older age group, past working age. So their 40% increase is only on a secondary fraction of us deaths, not the typical 3M deatsh per year. If we assume the 40% was for all age groups, then it would be

2.5 * 40% = 1M increase in deaths.

But according to that insurance data, it's probably less than half or a quarter of that due to the difference in age groups etc.

But its part of the loss.

Goran_K says

The last Star Wars trilogy pretty much destroyed anything I had for main stream blockbusters.

I used to be a big film buff. When I hit 35, I quite suddenly discovered I couldn't watch them any more. It was similar with video games.

With films, most films are pretty dumb, filled with plot holes, and that always drove me nuts, so I would search out films that didn't do that - Memento is one of them I really used to enjoy, very clever film with only one plot hole - but modern films, take Star Trek from 2009, it's NOTHING BUT plot holes. It's so distracting that the only enjoyment I can get out of it is how fucked up the film is in terms of plot versus all that work that was put into making the score, and doing the special effects. The film made absolutely no sense at all. Seriously, I wonder if the writers are attempting to make completely non logical plot hole filled trashbusters which are now the majority of films.

I think the last film series I enjoyed was Planet of the Apes. I think that was pretty well done and I think it was done better than the original.

I liked District 9 although THAT can be seen as being pretty stupid in many ways, but the race allegory was great. A lot of science fiction USED to take current problems and put them into an entirely different context to allow you to observe the problem from another point of view and District 9 did a great job of that. It's a pity that Neill Blomkamp basically was a one hit wonder director with that. I was once hoping for a sequel, but I used to hope for a sequel to Blade Runner - and I eventually got that.. :(

Better to let a brilliant film stand on its own, and not ruin it with a money grab. Matrix was like that. The first film was brilliant in the allegory IT presented, and the next 2 films just took all that away and the 4th film, it was unwatchable. It's just about impossible to convince somebody "watch the first X of this film series, but STOP after that point, or it will ruin the entire franchise for you" - because they always want to know what was next. Alien is like this, Terminator is like this, Star Trek, Star Wars, Matrix is like this.

It's been a long time since Breaking Bad. Better Call Saul mostly sucked except for the one season closely related to the themes of BB. Without exclusive and worthwhile shows, I don't really see the point of Netflix.

For the amount I watch, I'd rather watch the occasional thing on Amazon Prime for free or to pay a few dollars and watch something I really want to see. Amazon seems to have much more content if you're willing to spend a few dollars per movie.

Shaman says

And that rebel mothership (shaped like female reproductive system) getting relentlessly pounded by the Empire… oh wait that part was kind of amusing.

Battle Hardened, Brilliant tactician, Rebel General



Look at this shit. She looks like she could be an anchor on CNBC, or she throws fundraisers for Bernie Sanders. Pink haired, liberal white woman's dream.

Fuck Netflix.

Goran_K says

Look at this shit. She looks like she could be an anchor on CNBC, or she throws fundraisers for Bernie Sanders. Pink haired, liberal white woman's dream.

That kind of annoys me too. Looks like it takes her an hour to take a bubble bath, put on her makeup, do her hair, pick out her outfit (maybe trying on 2 or 3) and then go back to work being a major leader in a war.

I'm tired of faggoty Superheroes.

I prefer Action heroes.

Action heroes get tough or are toughened by rough experience to get revenge/get the bad guy. They're human and have to work to accomplish a goal, an inspiring, manly message.

Superheroes get exposed to Unobtainium or Radiation or Are Born This Way like Lady Gaga, and don't do shit for their super powers, it's a form of infantile omnipotence fantasy.

Goran_K says

The last Star Wars trilogy pretty much destroyed anything I had for main stream blockbusters. I literally swore off paying money to watch anymore of this woke BS anymore. Admiral Holdo, LOL

I feel the need to remind everyone of Mon Mothma who appeared as a leader in Return of the Jedi. Although her hair was of natural color.

AmericanKulak says

I'm tired of faggoty Superheroes.

I prefer Action heroes.

Action heroes get tough or are toughened by rough experience to get revenge/get the bad guy. They're human and have to work to accomplish a goal, an inspiring, manly message.

Superheroes get exposed to Unobtainium or Radiation or Are Born This Way like Lady Gaga, and don't do shit for their super powers, it's a form of infantile omnipotence fantasy.

So which is Batman..?

Batman is very obviously an action hero. The only powers he was born with was wealth and the only ones he gained were strength and skill.

Tranny in every new show, check
Black playing white roles(king Arthur), check
Gay characters in children's cartoons, check

Not surprised Netflix is tanking, check

NuttBoxer says

I feel the need to remind everyone of Mon Mothma who appeared as a leader in Return of the Jedi. Although her hair was of natural color.

Mothma and Holdo are literally NOTHING alike. Mothma has a far more natural and believable back story.

Mothma - Former SENATOR of Chandrila during the time of the Galatic Republic. Yes she wears a white dress, with her natural hair, but that's because she was formerly a senator of the republic, and only became a rebel leader when Palpatine took over and it was obvious he was going to be tyrannical. So her look, attitude, and dress is believable because that's probably what she would have worn and acted like as a senator in the republic.

Holdo - As a child she hung out with teenage Leia. They developed a friendship, with some semi-lesbian undertones that were never explored. She is supposedly force sensitive, and once Palpatine takes over she disappears for 30 years until the most recent trilogy where now she's a battle hardened general, who is supposedly a brilliant tactician who has lead the rebels to many victories.

Holdo's backstory makes ZERO sense. It's basically some force fed woke BS to create a "hero" relatable to woke LGBTQ millennials.

I primarily watch Youtube videos, of normal people doing normal shit. Fabricators, Off road vehicle recovery, crazy Russian auto mechanic that experiments with crazy ideas, Japanese Guitar teacher giving Blues in Minor triad and arpeggio scales. Oddly enough the videos I watch don't have one single commercial.
I also like watching the movie recap videos there's a few I like more than others. I like the 8 to 20 minute synopsis about the movies. I feel like by not hearing the dialog, I could still watch the movie if I thought it was interesting enough. I've seen a few I'll like to watch.
Though it's amazing how many have woke or gay shit overtones, which the narrator really makes it seem all the more crass, even if I can't tell if the narrator subscribes to the politics or not. They do call it out when woke shit is at work in the plots or story.

I don't have an account with Youtube, I don't hit the like and smash the subscribe. And what I watch is so varied YouTube doesn't know what to do with me. One thing for sure, they never show me the latest Pop star or celebrity gossip videos in the feed.

Re: YouTube videos.
I’m lately enjoying ones by a young mad scientist type: tyropyro

I give him 2 thumbs up.

Nooooooooooo!

When one of the big investors took a $400M loss and bailed on NFLX, there’s no reason anyone should stay in the stock. There’s a high probability it’s going to go lower.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ackmans-pershing-square-sells-netflix-224251956.html?source=patrick.net

its called WOKEFLIX

Tenpoundbass says

I primarily watch Youtube videos, of normal people doing normal shit. Fabricators

10#. Look up Mike Patey if you're into aviation. His Draco and Scrappy builds are fucking nuts. He's probably close to a billionaire out in Utah. Simple videos, not flashy, but the work he does is fucking amazing even if you don't fly or build planes. He's the type of guy if you could be reborn he'd be your Dad if you had a choice.

He's also got world speed records for building single prop aircraft. He didn't record those builds in detail though as far as I know. But if you're into fabrication and building you'll binge watch his shit for hours and days. His kids help, but it's usually just him and this felon that hit bad times he helped out and got him work.

More aviation, but Trent Palmer's channel is decent. He does drone cinematography but flies a bush plane. His camera work and filming are pretty amazing, but I'm indifferent on his personality as he's somewhat close to my age. But if the mountain west is something you like he has some cool videos. There are some duds in there though, so maybe watch a couple if you're not digging it. Start with something in like 2020 or before covid hit, but not too early. Can't remember was year he started.

Sorry, I like aviation. Might pull the trigger and get the license and partner with a friend on a plane. His wife is going for hers so might see if we can share time and get the license training costs down. I've got the time and the 40 hour bare minimum I could knock out in 2 months easy. If it takes 80 whatever. I'm a fucking expensive human... lol. If I were to die doing something, flying would be it as long as it was instant. Drowning or fire would be the worst.

WookieMan says

Sorry, I like aviation. Might pull the trigger and get the license

I've thought about maybe getting a pilot's license one day too. But more immediately, I'm really thinking of trying paramotoring. It looks so fun and the open air flying really appeals to me. So many youtubers post videos of them flying over the countryside, hills, desert etc... and it looks so free and fun. Not to mention it doesnt look very expensive. I need to look into the safety of it more though. I'm sure its nowhere near as safe as airplanes, but hopefully its not too bad if one is diligent about safety.

Any thoughts on it?

@Hircus There are a lot of paragliders in the Bay Area, since there are good cliffs for it. No motor, just a big wing. They step off the cliff and just sail around. Amazing to behold, but I get slightly ill just watching them.

richwicks says

It's just about impossible to convince somebody "watch the first X of this film series, but STOP after that point, or it will ruin the entire franchise for you" - because they always want to know what was next.

Actually, nowadays, that's less true than before.

After seeing 'The Expanse' seasons 1 to 3, I was all excited for season 4 but realized quickly on that the show lost its shine, making James Holden more useless than useful, and the best character of season 3, the antihero turned hero (& leader of the crew by the portal) Klaes Ashford, was killed for no purpose other than to show that there were some new terrorists in town, I mean space. What a waste!

And then the 'bad guy' of season 4, Adolphus Murtry, was just an unsympathetic dickhead. The fact that Amos didn't kill him in an instant was because he's pussywhipped by James Holden's idiotic pacifism (at all the wrong times). The Amos from prior seasons would have disposed of that trash heap in a heartbeat.

So in effect, the Expanse was over and I didn't watch any further. Others have followed suit and for a slew of viewers, the show was seasons 1 to 3, the best Sci-Fi space opera for the 2010s.

Seasons 4 to 6 were promptly forgotten & many just read the synopsis to get the gist of the completion.

Patrick says

@Hircus There are a lot of paragliders in the Bay Area, since there are good cliffs for it. No motor, just a big wing. They step off the cliff and just sail around. Amazing to behold, but I get slightly ill just watching them.

I'll have to go watch them in person sometime.

I watched a paramotoring video and the guy said those who have experience paragliding make better pilots for paramotoring due to being familiar with air currents / thermals etc... since that stuff is so critical to gliders, but paramotor pilots don't need to know so much about it, so very few study up. I'd imagine gliding is more dangerous - having a motor pushing you forward probably helps a lot to reduce the chance of a stall and to keep you in control. But I've seen videos of paramotor noobs who try to turn too sharply, and end up losing too much speed and lift, and they go from what looks like a safe controlled cruise to dropping 30-50ft onto the ground in 2 seconds, so I think the motor is certainly no panacea.

Hircus says

WookieMan says

Sorry, I like aviation. Might pull the trigger and get the license

I've thought about maybe getting a pilot's license one day too. But more immediately, I'm really thinking of trying paramotoring. It looks so fun and the open air flying really appeals to me. So many youtubers post videos of them flying over the countryside, hills, desert etc... and it looks so free and fun. Not to mention it doesnt look very expensive. I need to look into the safety of it more though. I'm sure its nowhere near as safe as airplanes, but hopefully its not too bad if one is diligent about safety.

Any thoughts on it?

Don't quote me on this but I believe paramotoring does not require an FAA license if you stay below a certain altitude. So you could buy or even borrow equipment today and be in the air. So that's appealing for sure if I'm correct and I think our user Headset could correct me on that. I only got an FAA license to fly a drone to receive payment commercially.

I want the license for speed and I enjoyed it the few times I've been in control of an aircraft. My wife's territory is all of Wisconsin and Illinois. I could get to any part of the state(s) in a Cessna 172 in about 2-3 hours from what would be our home airport depending on wind. The tip of WI is a 6-7 hour drive one way. Once at cruising altitude autopilot, check gauges and ATC communications. Much better than actively driving for 6-7 hours.

I don't have this kind of cash without a partner involved, but I'd like a Diamond DA50. 181kts sipping 9 gallons per hour of JetA fuel. I have 3 kids, so the 3 seats in the rear would be awesome or for clients. 850 mile range from the midwest. So Panhandle of FL, New York, Denver might be a stretch but close. I don't like the retractable gear as it's one more maintenance item, but you save time gaining speed. Also tax write off as a business expense of $1.2-1.4M for purchase and then write the maintenance and fuel expenses off as well. https://www.diamondaircraft.com/en/private-owners/aircraft/da50/overview/

I'd be able to get to most places I'd like to in under 2 hours from Chicagoland. Obviously not West Coast, but Nashville would be 1 hour 45 minutes. My airport is 10 minutes drive, towered and relatively low traffic outside of training. Supposedly one of the top FBO's in the nation, I've only been twice. Huge runway (6,500ft) if I'm a retard.

Jesus, novel over. I want an airplane.

On a positive note, watched a comedy special on Netflix last night that made fun of the woke. That said, the comedian who made the special will not be doing any more shows...ever. Sniff...

WookieMan says

Headset could correct me on that.

Sorry, I do not know anything about paramotors or drones, I have only flown regular planes. Even then, I last flew in the 90s and that was a Cessna 172.

WookieMan says

181kts sipping 9 gallons per hour of JetA fuel.

A recip engine that burns JetA sounds like it is a diesel, as a turboprop would burn more like 30-40 gallons per hour.

Sounds like a nice ride. Odd that you are worried the complexity of retractable gear, since a plane like that is likely to have an oxygen system as well.

WookieMan says

Once at cruising altitude autopilot, check gauges and ATC communications.

Do not forget you got to land, and often in IFR conditions. I presume you would get your Instrument Rating if you will be flying for business.

Let us know if you if get that plane.

Hircus says

I'll have to go watch them in person sometime.

@Hircus This is one place I've seen them doing it, north of Pacifica:

https://www.paragliding-lessons.com/mrsg/

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-cuts-netflix-to-sell-june-2022-120600082.html

Goldman cuts Netflix to 'Sell' citing competition and a 'consumer recession'

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-cuts-netflix-to-sell-june-2022-120600082.html

Goldman cuts Netflix to 'Sell' citing competition and a 'consumer recession'

don’t want to say that wokeness got consumers fleeing

WookieMan says

Might pull the trigger and get the license and partner with a friend on a plane.

HeadSet says

I have only flown regular planes. Even then, I last flew in the 90s and that was a Cessna 172.

I got an Instrument Rating and Commercial License when I was in my late teens in college. I flew the 150, 172, 182, Grumman Tiger, Bellanca Citabria, Rockwell Aero Commander (I think it might have been a "model 114"), Piper Cherokee.

In those days, most of the airlines required a college degree. It could be any degree, in any subject. My plan was to build hours while in college then follow the well-trodden path from air taxi to puddle jumper to regional airline to "majors". And to get a degree in something solid as a backup plan, in case I ever failed the physical from a heart murmur or (in those days) imperfect vision/hearing, or something else. I knew two such healthy folks who failed the ATP physical like that. They both wisely majored in solid fields and so got other employment.

My "solid" major opened some doors for me during college to work part time in "tech". Besides paying the college expenses I could now pay for more flying time. The goal was the next step, Multi-Engine. My college buddies took up golf. I would join them on most weekends, in the SF Bay Area the climate is mild enough to play gold year-round. My calendar, and my pocket book, could not support the flying and the golf. In my part time work I became more integrated into the company's technology development. I found the work more interesting and more fulfilling than the flying. Since I'd hung around the airport I knew a lot of young pilots, including a handful who made the transition to working for major airlines.

At the time, one of them, a bit older than me (late 20's) got his Dream Job working 3rd seat in a Boeing 727 for United Air Lines. In spite of his glamorous gig, I made more money than him working half-time as a research assistant at a sh*tty little tech company in Silicon Valley. I got so many stories about airline pilots I knew back in the day. Between me enjoying the golf, fascinated with the tech, and getting bored with the flying, I decided to ditch the flying.

Fast forward three decades. Kids done with college, house paid for, etc. Maybe I can pick up flying again as a hobby. I shopped around for insurance. First of all, life insurance policies mostly all have in fine print that they will not pay out for a death from flying (or riding in) a private plane. AOPA will broker a policy, but it's limit was 250K. Like BayArea has boasted on Patrick's website, that's Chump Change here in SIlicon Valley. I don't know if AOPA would broker ten policies for the same pilot, but at that point the premiums would be way more than the cost of the hobby.

A few years after that, I didn't care about the life insurance any more. Basically, "self-insured". However, the self-insurance amount could be target of a liability suit. You can also get a pilot's liability policy. Same problem. Any decent coverage will so be expensive that it will exceed the flying cost. Nonetheless I looked further into this.

When I was flying as a teenager, my flight instructors told me that they were not worried about my skill or judgement or whatever. They said that young pilots like me took the hobby seriously and were seldom in accidents. They told me that the pilots they worried about were successful affluent middle aged folks who viewed their airplane ownership and piloting as a hobby akin to golf or whatever. They told me these guys were a bit arrogant to assume that just like any other activity they were "on top of things". Sure enough, every one of the crashes I had a connection to would fit in that category. (Can you say, "JFK Junior"?) Nonetheless, I "knew" that wouldn't be me. I visited a flying school to inquire. All I wanted to do is buy the training manual to read up on resuming this activity. The guy at the front counter was the owner/chief instructor. He had me figured out. I could see the dollar signs in his eyes like the cartoon portrayal of Greedy Daffy Duck. He insisted in GIVING me the training manual. I said I wanted to pay him for it, even as he insisted. Finally, I got him to agree to take the payment, and that if I took refresh lessons from his school (he had a fleet of small planes and an army of young instructors), he could credit me back the cost of the training manual. He also insisted that he give me a "comp" demo flight that he would personally instruct, maybe even let me land the plane. "You will be enchanted", told said. I told him I'd take the manual home and get back to him.

OMG just a little bit of reading that training manual and I knew that if I picked up this as a hobby, just like JFK Junior and those middle aged pilots my flight instructors warned me about three decades ago, I'd kill myself or others. As a teenager I did not really respect all the knowledge and skill I'd accumulated in that "hobby". No way. It's not for me and in my opinion not for anyone like me.

If I get the itch to fly again I will hang around the airport and find some better-suited youngster to fly me around, and help him/her pay for the flying time.