patrick.net
An Antidote to Corporate Media
1,260,787 comments by 15,055 users - Ceffer, stereotomy online now
housing prices peak 2
invite response
2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm 607,423 views 5,690 comments
by AD ➕follow (1) 💰tip ignore
« First « Previous Comments 493 - 532 of 5,690 Next » Last » Search these comments
493
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 9, 7:10am
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 9, 7:10am
https://www.lasvegasrealtor.com/housing-market-statistics
Las Vegas single-family home Median price falls 3.13% during the month of July, to $465,000
Las Vegas single-family home Median price falls 3.13% during the month of July, to $465,000
494
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 9, 7:14am
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 9, 7:14am
https://www.businessinsider.com/rapidly-cooling-housing-market-caught-biggest-buyers-off-guard-2022-8?gifted=0260cca6-881b-4807-ba03-dff301a56e0f
The Rapidly Cooling Housing Market Caught the Biggest Buyers Off Guard
Julie Essig, a real-estate agent in Boise, Idaho, often tells her sellers to first see what they can get by cutting a deal with Opendoor, one of several property-technology companies that buy up homes quickly with cash and then sell them for a profit.
But she's never advised one of her clients to take an offer from the so-called iBuyer — until this spring, as home mortgage rates were marching higher.
In May, at what Essig described as the peak of Boise's real-estate market, one of her clients sold a home to Opendoor for $521,400, she told Insider. The company soon relisted the home for $5,600 more.
"I was really surprised at how much they were offering. I would have listed it at $485,000," Essig told Insider.
She suggested that her client take the offer since their take-home haul from the transaction, minus Opendoor's fees, would be the same and they wouldn't need to widely list the home.
More than 45 days later, the property remains on the market, priced at $459,000 after four price cuts since the beginning of June. The price dropped almost $50,000 in July alone.
From Phoenix to Boise, housing markets are cooling so fast they’ve caught some of the biggest buyers by surprise Leonard ParkerAugust 5, 2022
From Phoenix to Boise, housing markets are cooling so fast they’ve caught some of the biggest buyers by surprise Demand from homebuyers is falling, creating spelling problems for businesses that buy homes and then sell quickly. Opendoor, Offerpad and Redfin expect to sell much of their inventory at a loss.
The effect is worst in markets like Phoenix, which were iBuyer’s darlings at the start of the pandemic.
Julie Essig, a real estate agent in Boise, Idaho, often tells her sellers to see what they can get first by making a deal with Opendoor, one of several real estate technology companies that buy homes quickly with cash and then sell them for a profit .
But she never advised any of her clients to take up an offer from the so-called iBuyer — until this spring, when home mortgage rates marched higher.
In May, when vinegar marked the peak of the Boise real estate market, one of her clients sold a home to Opendoor for $521,400, she told Insider. The company soon relisted the house for another $5,600.
“I was really surprised at how much they offered. I would have listed it at $485,000,” Essig told Insider.
She suggested her client to accept the offer as their take home transport from the transaction would be the same minus Opendoor’s fees and they would not have to comprehensively list the house.
More than 45 days later, the property is on the market at $459,000 after four price drops since early June. In July alone, the price dropped nearly $50,000.
Also read: Arizona's hot housing market is cooling off fast
Vinegar has a front row seat in the rapidly cooling Boise housing market, recently identified as America’s Most Overpriced Market by Moody’s Analytics. The aftermath of rising interest rates and excessive exuberance early in the pandemic has hit this city and similarly hot spots that have been favorites of Opendoor and other iBuyers suddenly having to rein in losses.
This correction, fueled by mortgage rates rising at an unprecedented rate, is being felt by Opendoor and Offerpad executives. They revised down their expectations for the third quarter during earnings presentations this week. iBuyers are bearing the brunt of falling home prices as they must bear the downside risk until they can resell the homes.
Shareholders of the companies saw a bit of “The Hunger Games” under iBuyers. Shares of Offerpad, a smaller iBuyer, plunged more than 15% after its earnings report, while shares of Opendoor rose a corresponding amount after it released financials for the period.
Now iBuyers plan to sell homes at a loss to take them off their balance sheets, an eerie reminder of the behavior that brought down Zillow’s iBuying division last year, albeit not to the same extent or for the same reasons.
What goes up must also come down The pain is not felt evenly across the country or in iBuyers’ portfolios.
“The markets with the biggest gains are the hardest hit,” Offerpad CEO Brian Blair said as he unveiled the company’s second-quarter earnings.
Blair said the company is slowing acquisitions in markets like Phoenix because of recent volatility. He identified these types of markets as the primary source of the company’s $21.2 million in writedowns related to home prices from April through June.
Opendoor sees the same dynamic
Daniel Morillo, Opendoor’s chief investment officer, said the company’s East Coast markets were performing well, particularly in the Southeast and Florida. Central markets are more mixed, he said, and western markets like Phoenix; Las Vegas; Sacramento, California; and Tucson, Arizona are “a little bit more challenged”.
Rapid market change surprises iBuyers iBuyers like Opendoor and Offerpad have braced themselves for a slowdown – after all, record transaction volumes and house price increases couldn’t last forever. But they didn’t expect how quickly the market would cool down, Opendoor’s chief financial officer Carrie Wheeler told analysts during the earnings call.
This rapid market change has resulted in iBuyers getting their hands on the homes they bought just a few months earlier. Redfin’s iBuying business, a real estate agent with lower fees than traditional agents, is likely to suffer a loss on the homes it bought in April and May after factoring in holding costs, selling costs and repairs, its CEO Glenn Kelman said during the company’s earnings call company this week.
June and July are less of a concern, Kelman said, because the company bought fewer homes and paid less for them during those months.
Those losses “will not be enough to sink our battleship,” Kelman said, expressing confidence that the iBuying business would survive this transition period.
“Our guidance assumes that home prices will continue to decline moderately through the end of 2022, but we continue to expect our real estate division to post significant full-year gross profit,” Kelman told analysts during the conference call.
Kelman acknowledged that iBuyers played a role in the rapid slowdown in the real estate market. In 2017, the share of inventory sold by iBuyers, builders and other institutions was 27%. That number is now nearly 35%, Kelman said. Unlike the average homeowner, these types of sellers are quick to lower prices if the homes don’t sell, he added.
“iBuyers price the listing below any comparable current offer and price it even lower if it doesn’t receive an offer during opening weekend,” Kelman said. “That makes market corrections sharper, but maybe shorter. The good news is that buyers are already reacting to falling prices and mortgage rates.”
A brief market correction would be good news for Offerpad and Blair, who said a buyer’s market is better for iBuyers. The challenge is the transition period.
“The hardest part is when it’s going from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market,” Blair said. “This transitional period at the top, it’s getting foggy like never before. And that’s exactly where we are in this cycle right now.”
The Rapidly Cooling Housing Market Caught the Biggest Buyers Off Guard
Julie Essig, a real-estate agent in Boise, Idaho, often tells her sellers to first see what they can get by cutting a deal with Opendoor, one of several property-technology companies that buy up homes quickly with cash and then sell them for a profit.
But she's never advised one of her clients to take an offer from the so-called iBuyer — until this spring, as home mortgage rates were marching higher.
In May, at what Essig described as the peak of Boise's real-estate market, one of her clients sold a home to Opendoor for $521,400, she told Insider. The company soon relisted the home for $5,600 more.
"I was really surprised at how much they were offering. I would have listed it at $485,000," Essig told Insider.
She suggested that her client take the offer since their take-home haul from the transaction, minus Opendoor's fees, would be the same and they wouldn't need to widely list the home.
More than 45 days later, the property remains on the market, priced at $459,000 after four price cuts since the beginning of June. The price dropped almost $50,000 in July alone.
From Phoenix to Boise, housing markets are cooling so fast they’ve caught some of the biggest buyers by surprise Leonard ParkerAugust 5, 2022
From Phoenix to Boise, housing markets are cooling so fast they’ve caught some of the biggest buyers by surprise Demand from homebuyers is falling, creating spelling problems for businesses that buy homes and then sell quickly. Opendoor, Offerpad and Redfin expect to sell much of their inventory at a loss.
The effect is worst in markets like Phoenix, which were iBuyer’s darlings at the start of the pandemic.
Julie Essig, a real estate agent in Boise, Idaho, often tells her sellers to see what they can get first by making a deal with Opendoor, one of several real estate technology companies that buy homes quickly with cash and then sell them for a profit .
But she never advised any of her clients to take up an offer from the so-called iBuyer — until this spring, when home mortgage rates marched higher.
In May, when vinegar marked the peak of the Boise real estate market, one of her clients sold a home to Opendoor for $521,400, she told Insider. The company soon relisted the house for another $5,600.
“I was really surprised at how much they offered. I would have listed it at $485,000,” Essig told Insider.
She suggested her client to accept the offer as their take home transport from the transaction would be the same minus Opendoor’s fees and they would not have to comprehensively list the house.
More than 45 days later, the property is on the market at $459,000 after four price drops since early June. In July alone, the price dropped nearly $50,000.
Also read: Arizona's hot housing market is cooling off fast
Vinegar has a front row seat in the rapidly cooling Boise housing market, recently identified as America’s Most Overpriced Market by Moody’s Analytics. The aftermath of rising interest rates and excessive exuberance early in the pandemic has hit this city and similarly hot spots that have been favorites of Opendoor and other iBuyers suddenly having to rein in losses.
This correction, fueled by mortgage rates rising at an unprecedented rate, is being felt by Opendoor and Offerpad executives. They revised down their expectations for the third quarter during earnings presentations this week. iBuyers are bearing the brunt of falling home prices as they must bear the downside risk until they can resell the homes.
Shareholders of the companies saw a bit of “The Hunger Games” under iBuyers. Shares of Offerpad, a smaller iBuyer, plunged more than 15% after its earnings report, while shares of Opendoor rose a corresponding amount after it released financials for the period.
Now iBuyers plan to sell homes at a loss to take them off their balance sheets, an eerie reminder of the behavior that brought down Zillow’s iBuying division last year, albeit not to the same extent or for the same reasons.
What goes up must also come down The pain is not felt evenly across the country or in iBuyers’ portfolios.
“The markets with the biggest gains are the hardest hit,” Offerpad CEO Brian Blair said as he unveiled the company’s second-quarter earnings.
Blair said the company is slowing acquisitions in markets like Phoenix because of recent volatility. He identified these types of markets as the primary source of the company’s $21.2 million in writedowns related to home prices from April through June.
Opendoor sees the same dynamic
Daniel Morillo, Opendoor’s chief investment officer, said the company’s East Coast markets were performing well, particularly in the Southeast and Florida. Central markets are more mixed, he said, and western markets like Phoenix; Las Vegas; Sacramento, California; and Tucson, Arizona are “a little bit more challenged”.
Rapid market change surprises iBuyers iBuyers like Opendoor and Offerpad have braced themselves for a slowdown – after all, record transaction volumes and house price increases couldn’t last forever. But they didn’t expect how quickly the market would cool down, Opendoor’s chief financial officer Carrie Wheeler told analysts during the earnings call.
This rapid market change has resulted in iBuyers getting their hands on the homes they bought just a few months earlier. Redfin’s iBuying business, a real estate agent with lower fees than traditional agents, is likely to suffer a loss on the homes it bought in April and May after factoring in holding costs, selling costs and repairs, its CEO Glenn Kelman said during the company’s earnings call company this week.
June and July are less of a concern, Kelman said, because the company bought fewer homes and paid less for them during those months.
Those losses “will not be enough to sink our battleship,” Kelman said, expressing confidence that the iBuying business would survive this transition period.
“Our guidance assumes that home prices will continue to decline moderately through the end of 2022, but we continue to expect our real estate division to post significant full-year gross profit,” Kelman told analysts during the conference call.
Kelman acknowledged that iBuyers played a role in the rapid slowdown in the real estate market. In 2017, the share of inventory sold by iBuyers, builders and other institutions was 27%. That number is now nearly 35%, Kelman said. Unlike the average homeowner, these types of sellers are quick to lower prices if the homes don’t sell, he added.
“iBuyers price the listing below any comparable current offer and price it even lower if it doesn’t receive an offer during opening weekend,” Kelman said. “That makes market corrections sharper, but maybe shorter. The good news is that buyers are already reacting to falling prices and mortgage rates.”
A brief market correction would be good news for Offerpad and Blair, who said a buyer’s market is better for iBuyers. The challenge is the transition period.
“The hardest part is when it’s going from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market,” Blair said. “This transitional period at the top, it’s getting foggy like never before. And that’s exactly where we are in this cycle right now.”
496
Patrick
2022 Aug 9, 3:51pm
Patrick
2022 Aug 9, 3:51pm
https://slaynews.com/economy/number-of-homes-for-sale-across-us-soars-as-increased-demand-higher-prices-see-buyers-hit-pause/
The number of homes listed for sale across the United States has soared to a record high in July, according to reports.
497
HeadSet
2022 Aug 9, 4:49pm
HeadSet
2022 Aug 9, 4:49pm
Patrick says
Realtor.com said the rise in unsold homes is due to a decline in pending inventory.
That is like saying the reason for a flood is excess water.
https://slaynews.com/economy/number-of-homes-for-sale-across-us-soars-as-increased-demand-higher-prices-see-buyers-hit-pause/
The number of homes listed for sale across the United States has soared to a record high in July, according to reports.
Realtor.com said the rise in unsold homes is due to a decline in pending inventory.
That is like saying the reason for a flood is excess water.
498
stfu
2022 Aug 10, 2:01am
They are careful to avoid any absolute numbers in order to maximize the sense of impending doom. Inventory remains below historical norms at a time when the pool of potential buyers is going up. I expect prices to inversely track with mortgage rates but I don't expect a collapse in prices. Rising mortgage rates mean People are being priced out of a monthly payment but this will not force sellers to lower prices as long as they can pay their mortgages (likely at 3%).
I remember in the mid 90's when an 8% mortgage was typical. My dad remembers rates in the teens. People still bought and sold homes.
If you are waiting for bargains, remember the best deals didn't happen in 2008, they happened in 2010 through 2012. It takes years for foreclosures to become available to joe home owner.
I remember in the mid 90's when an 8% mortgage was typical. My dad remembers rates in the teens. People still bought and sold homes.
If you are waiting for bargains, remember the best deals didn't happen in 2008, they happened in 2010 through 2012. It takes years for foreclosures to become available to joe home owner.
499
richwicks
2022 Aug 10, 2:30am
richwicks
2022 Aug 10, 2:30am
stfu says
I remember the 1970's and 1980's. I remember when gold went from $100 an ounce to $800 an ounce in 10 years and a "nice home" was $80,000.
National debt was about $900 billion when gold peaked. I expect a repeat, in fact, I expect an overshoot. Gold will be roughly (and I know this sounds unbelievable) about $30,000 an ounce. We're in for crazy fucking times ahead.
I don't expect the system to survive it this time but I'm overly optimistic...
I remember in the mid 90's when an 8% mortgage was typical. My dad remembers rates in the teens. People still bought and sold homes.
I remember the 1970's and 1980's. I remember when gold went from $100 an ounce to $800 an ounce in 10 years and a "nice home" was $80,000.
National debt was about $900 billion when gold peaked. I expect a repeat, in fact, I expect an overshoot. Gold will be roughly (and I know this sounds unbelievable) about $30,000 an ounce. We're in for crazy fucking times ahead.
I don't expect the system to survive it this time but I'm overly optimistic...
500
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 10, 4:57am
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 10, 4:57am
stfu says
Ummm.... Nope.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-09/home-listings-soar-in-cooling-us-housing-market
Non Paywall:
https://archive.ph/21zQB
at a time when the pool of potential buyers is going up
Ummm.... Nope.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-09/home-listings-soar-in-cooling-us-housing-market
Non Paywall:
https://archive.ph/21zQB
503
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 10, 5:15am
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 10, 5:15am
https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/where-the-most-sellers-are-slashing-prices/?cid=push_braze_marketing_apps_marketing-insights_48473293-ff7d-4883-9b96-a5f35d94a399_v2
Here Are the 10 Cities Where Sellers Are Slashing Home Prices the Most
Here Are the 10 Cities Where Sellers Are Slashing Home Prices the Most
504
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 10, 5:23am
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 10, 5:23am
https://fortune.com/2022/08/09/housing-bubble-2022-call-robert-shiller-housing-market/
Robert Shiller predicted the 2008 housing bubble. Here’s his 2022 call
On Sunday, Shiller spoke with Yahoo Finance. He told the outlet that he once again thinks the U.S. housing market is headed for trouble.
“Home prices haven’t fallen since the 2007–09 recession. Right now things look almost as bad,” Shiller said. “Existing home sales are down. Permits are down. A lot of signs that we’ll see something. It may not be catastrophic, but it’s time to consider that.”
A drop in home prices, Shiller says, looks very possible.
Robert Shiller predicted the 2008 housing bubble. Here’s his 2022 call
On Sunday, Shiller spoke with Yahoo Finance. He told the outlet that he once again thinks the U.S. housing market is headed for trouble.
“Home prices haven’t fallen since the 2007–09 recession. Right now things look almost as bad,” Shiller said. “Existing home sales are down. Permits are down. A lot of signs that we’ll see something. It may not be catastrophic, but it’s time to consider that.”
A drop in home prices, Shiller says, looks very possible.
506
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 10, 7:03am
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 10, 7:03am
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-sentiment-decade-low-203654331.html
Housing sentiment slides to a decade-plus low
Housing sentiment slides to a decade-plus low
507
stfu
2022 Aug 10, 9:34am
zzyzzx says
You misunderstood. I'm not talking about the pool of people that can afford a mortgage at the increased rates (as your link pertains to). I'm talking about demographics. There are more Millennials than Boomers, and there are more Gen Z's than Gen X.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/797321/us-population-by-generation/
At some point they will buy homes at the same rate that their predecessors did.
I will also point out that the article you linked to says "US HOME SUPPLY SOARS!!!!!!" but they never give you the absolute numbers. Even with soaring inventory it is still below what was considered normal 24 months ago. But continue to hope for a crash, and invest accordingly.
stfu says
at a time when the pool of potential buyers is going up
Ummm.... Nope.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-09/home-listings-soar-in-cooling-us-housing-market
Non Paywall:
https://archive.ph/21zQB
You misunderstood. I'm not talking about the pool of people that can afford a mortgage at the increased rates (as your link pertains to). I'm talking about demographics. There are more Millennials than Boomers, and there are more Gen Z's than Gen X.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/797321/us-population-by-generation/
At some point they will buy homes at the same rate that their predecessors did.
I will also point out that the article you linked to says "US HOME SUPPLY SOARS!!!!!!" but they never give you the absolute numbers. Even with soaring inventory it is still below what was considered normal 24 months ago. But continue to hope for a crash, and invest accordingly.
509
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 11, 6:06am
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 11, 6:06am
https://fortune.com/2022/08/11/housing-market-inventory-shifts-2022/
Just look at July inventory data. Active listings on realtor.com jumped 128,200 last month to 747,500. That’s the single biggest jump in the site’s database that goes back to 2016. The previous record hike was May 2022 (+106,900 homes) which nearly got surpassed by the June 2022 jump (+102,900 homes).
Among the 917 regional housing markets tracked by realtor.com, 898 saw rising inventory levels—the number of unsold listings—between March and July. Of those, 346 markets saw at least a 100% uptick. In 57 markets, inventory rose by over 200%. That includes Idaho Falls, Idaho (387% uptick); Ogden, Utah (372% uptick); Provo, Utah (371% uptick); Coeur d'Alene, Idaho (365% uptick); and Salt Lake City (355% uptick).
But balance could soon be on the way. Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at HousingWire, thinks we could reach pre-pandemic inventory levels in 2023. Heading into 2022, Mohtashami was on "team higher rates." In his mind, spiking mortgage rates were the only way to pull us out of an "overheated" housing market where historically tight inventory levels gave home shoppers little choice but to engage in bidding wars.
There's another reason to expect more inventory: Homebuilders currently have both a record number of homes under construction and a record number of unsold homes under construction. Those builders are already struggling to sell them. As those new abodes hit the market, it could see some regional housing markets get temporarily oversupplied.
Just look at July inventory data. Active listings on realtor.com jumped 128,200 last month to 747,500. That’s the single biggest jump in the site’s database that goes back to 2016. The previous record hike was May 2022 (+106,900 homes) which nearly got surpassed by the June 2022 jump (+102,900 homes).
Among the 917 regional housing markets tracked by realtor.com, 898 saw rising inventory levels—the number of unsold listings—between March and July. Of those, 346 markets saw at least a 100% uptick. In 57 markets, inventory rose by over 200%. That includes Idaho Falls, Idaho (387% uptick); Ogden, Utah (372% uptick); Provo, Utah (371% uptick); Coeur d'Alene, Idaho (365% uptick); and Salt Lake City (355% uptick).
But balance could soon be on the way. Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at HousingWire, thinks we could reach pre-pandemic inventory levels in 2023. Heading into 2022, Mohtashami was on "team higher rates." In his mind, spiking mortgage rates were the only way to pull us out of an "overheated" housing market where historically tight inventory levels gave home shoppers little choice but to engage in bidding wars.
There's another reason to expect more inventory: Homebuilders currently have both a record number of homes under construction and a record number of unsold homes under construction. Those builders are already struggling to sell them. As those new abodes hit the market, it could see some regional housing markets get temporarily oversupplied.
510
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 11, 6:51am
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 11, 6:51am
https://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta-based-angel-oak-pays-175-million-sec-fine/OP7KSMGGHJG6JCWQHZJCZ5TMH4/
Atlanta-based Angel Oak pays $1.75 million SEC fine
The company “improperly” moved money around to hide how many of its loans were not being paid back on time, SEC officials said.
Atlanta-based Angel Oak pays $1.75 million SEC fine
The company “improperly” moved money around to hide how many of its loans were not being paid back on time, SEC officials said.
511
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 11, 7:06am
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 11, 7:06am
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-5-percent-140011104.html
Mortgage rates surpass 5% again
The rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage increased to 5.22% from 4.99% the week prior, according to Freddie Mac. While the rate remains lower than the 5.81% registered in June, it’s still 2 percentage points higher than the start of the year.
The jump in rates is discouraging news for sidelined, price-shocked buyers, who are contending with tough affordability conditions. Meanwhile, homeowners are growing wary about selling, as the cooler market has forced some to lower their asking prices.
Mortgage rates surpass 5% again
The rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage increased to 5.22% from 4.99% the week prior, according to Freddie Mac. While the rate remains lower than the 5.81% registered in June, it’s still 2 percentage points higher than the start of the year.
The jump in rates is discouraging news for sidelined, price-shocked buyers, who are contending with tough affordability conditions. Meanwhile, homeowners are growing wary about selling, as the cooler market has forced some to lower their asking prices.
512
GNL
2022 Aug 11, 7:27am
GNL
2022 Aug 11, 7:27am
How can a financial institution lend at rates lower than inflation? Fraudulent market?
514
richwicks
2022 Aug 11, 2:09pm
richwicks
2022 Aug 11, 2:09pm
GNLusedtobeWine says
It's called a mafia front. They are laundering money.
Ever seen a store of some store NOBODY ever enters? That's a front. I used to have a "furniture rental store" near me, and I walked by it often, and never saw a single person enter it. When you see a "bidness" that never gets any traffic, but inexplicably stays around for years, that's a front.
How can a financial institution lend at rates lower than inflation? Fraudulent market?
It's called a mafia front. They are laundering money.
Ever seen a store of some store NOBODY ever enters? That's a front. I used to have a "furniture rental store" near me, and I walked by it often, and never saw a single person enter it. When you see a "bidness" that never gets any traffic, but inexplicably stays around for years, that's a front.
516
WookieMan
2022 Aug 11, 3:19pm
WookieMan
2022 Aug 11, 3:19pm
zzyzzx says
This really isn't a prediction. It's very possible we'll get hit by an astroid.
Shiller is okay at stats, but this isn't even a prediction. It's a maybe guess type play. And any moron that knows what interest rates are knows that housing is gonna slow down. There's nothing outside of hipster areas indicating a crash.
Any crash in housing would be employment created. We have boomers retiring. Employers cannot even find people that want to work. And many boomer kids have stayed with their parents, so they're not selling. In my opinion housing is fine or the foreseeable future in 90% of markets. A few might get beaten up and bring down the median and averages, but I see no doom coming. Aside from the feds doing a mega bump in rates, housing is pretty damn stable right now.
A drop in home prices, Shiller says, looks very possible.
This really isn't a prediction. It's very possible we'll get hit by an astroid.
Shiller is okay at stats, but this isn't even a prediction. It's a maybe guess type play. And any moron that knows what interest rates are knows that housing is gonna slow down. There's nothing outside of hipster areas indicating a crash.
Any crash in housing would be employment created. We have boomers retiring. Employers cannot even find people that want to work. And many boomer kids have stayed with their parents, so they're not selling. In my opinion housing is fine or the foreseeable future in 90% of markets. A few might get beaten up and bring down the median and averages, but I see no doom coming. Aside from the feds doing a mega bump in rates, housing is pretty damn stable right now.
517
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2022 Aug 11, 3:19pm
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2022 Aug 11, 3:19pm
$80,000 PRICE REDUCTION PLUS 1 Point for Buyer Assistance for Mortgage.
Aug 11, 2022
Price Changed
$695,000
Jul 25, 2022
Price Changed
Jul 14, 2022
Price Changed
Jun 28, 2022
Relisted (Active)
Jun 16, 2022
Pending (Yikes, this market is in freefall. I’m outta here!)
Jan 28, 2022
Listed (Active)
$825,000
Aug 11, 2022
Price Changed
$695,000
Jul 25, 2022
Price Changed
Jul 14, 2022
Price Changed
Jun 28, 2022
Relisted (Active)
Jun 16, 2022
Pending (Yikes, this market is in freefall. I’m outta here!)
Jan 28, 2022
Listed (Active)
$825,000
518
Ceffer
2022 Aug 11, 3:33pm
Ceffer
2022 Aug 11, 3:33pm
Fire sale in the condo complex next door in Tri Valley hood. Five signs went up almost overnight. I remember when I coulda bought one of those places cash for 80K, but was too nervous about overextending myself. They are half a million and above now.
519
AD
2022 Aug 11, 4:26pm
AD
2022 Aug 11, 4:26pm
zzyzzx says
this is a good canary in the coal mine as far as real estate industry and real estate prices
.
.
Rocket Mortgage’s profits drop dramatically in Q2 2022
this is a good canary in the coal mine as far as real estate industry and real estate prices
.
.
520
AD
2022 Aug 11, 4:30pm
AD
2022 Aug 11, 4:30pm
zzyzzx says
From what I've seen the 30 year mortgage rate is typically about 2.5% greater than the Fed Funds rate. The mortgage rate got ahead of itself as the Fed was announcing future increases. The Fed Funds rate is 2.5% now, and the Fed is likely to add 0.75% to it next month. I hope they increase the Fed Funds rate to 5% like they did around 1999-2000. That will give them enough margin to reduce the rate without going back to zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) like 2009 - 2016. Obama got too much of a free pass.
.
Mortgage rates surpass 5% again
From what I've seen the 30 year mortgage rate is typically about 2.5% greater than the Fed Funds rate. The mortgage rate got ahead of itself as the Fed was announcing future increases. The Fed Funds rate is 2.5% now, and the Fed is likely to add 0.75% to it next month. I hope they increase the Fed Funds rate to 5% like they did around 1999-2000. That will give them enough margin to reduce the rate without going back to zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) like 2009 - 2016. Obama got too much of a free pass.
.
521
AD
2022 Aug 11, 4:33pm
AD
2022 Aug 11, 4:33pm
richwicks says
Yeah, Russian mob is notorious with this.
Check this out: https://www.facebook.com/ConspiracyCentral.Jellysmack/videos/1098160527574667/
.
It's called a mafia front. They are laundering money.
Yeah, Russian mob is notorious with this.
Check this out: https://www.facebook.com/ConspiracyCentral.Jellysmack/videos/1098160527574667/
.
522
Booger
2022 Aug 11, 4:33pm
Booger
2022 Aug 11, 4:33pm
Ceffer says
Offer $80K for them.
Fire sale in the condo complex next door in Tri Valley hood. Five signs went up almost overnight. I remember when I coulda bought one of those places cash for 80K, but was too nervous about overextending myself. They are half a million and above now.
Offer $80K for them.
523
EBGuy
2022 Aug 11, 5:03pm
Once or twice a year I'll check on our favorite property baron to see if he's sold any of his holdings. In a strange coincidence, I did a search today and there was a recent transaction. Ducky just sold the family homestead. Given his impeachable timing, I'd say we're at the peak...
524
1337irr
2022 Aug 11, 5:10pm
1337irr
2022 Aug 11, 5:10pm
WookieMan says
I have seen this before. In Austin, at least 20% of all transaction in SFH are housing speculators. Hold my beer, please WookieMan.
zzyzzx says
A drop in home prices, Shiller says, looks very possible.
This really isn't a prediction. It's very possible we'll get hit by an astroid.
Shiller is okay at stats, but this isn't even a prediction. It's a maybe guess type play. And any moron that knows what interest rates are knows that housing is gonna slow down. There's nothing outside of hipster areas indicating a crash.
Any crash in housing would be employment created. We have boomers retiring. Employers cannot even find people that want to work. And many boomer kids have stayed with their parents, so they're not selling. In my opinion housing is fine or the foreseeable future in 90% of markets. A few might get beaten up and bring down the median and averages, but I see no doom coming. Aside from the feds doing a mega bump in rates, housing is pretty damn stable right now.
I have seen this before. In Austin, at least 20% of all transaction in SFH are housing speculators. Hold my beer, please WookieMan.
525
AD
2022 Aug 11, 5:45pm
AD
2022 Aug 11, 5:45pm
1337irr says
How do you get this data ? Is it through a real estate company source ? Or you check the county appraiser website or property records online ? I usually look at a neighborhood (i.e., home owners association) in my Florida county and check the appraiser website. If a home is not marked for homestead exemption then it is most likely a second home or rented.
.
In Austin, at least 20% of all transaction in SFH are housing speculators.
How do you get this data ? Is it through a real estate company source ? Or you check the county appraiser website or property records online ? I usually look at a neighborhood (i.e., home owners association) in my Florida county and check the appraiser website. If a home is not marked for homestead exemption then it is most likely a second home or rented.
.
526
1337irr
2022 Aug 11, 7:05pm
1337irr
2022 Aug 11, 7:05pm
ad says
It's from Reventure Consulting in one of his recent videos for the summer. I don't know how he gets his data but based on my own more qualitative research rather than quantitive. I have a friend from church who bought an investment property, and another that bought a fixed and flip in Austin. Austin has/had a very active real estate investment group that was led by Phil Groves and his wife. If everybody is getting into real estate, it may be time to get out.
1337irr says
In Austin, at least 20% of all transaction in SFH are housing speculators.
How do you get this data ? Is it through a real estate company source ? Or you check the county appraiser website or property records online ? I usually look at a neighborhood (i.e., home owners association) in my Florida county and check the appraiser website. If a home is not marked for homestead exemption then it is most likely a second home or rented.
.
It's from Reventure Consulting in one of his recent videos for the summer. I don't know how he gets his data but based on my own more qualitative research rather than quantitive. I have a friend from church who bought an investment property, and another that bought a fixed and flip in Austin. Austin has/had a very active real estate investment group that was led by Phil Groves and his wife. If everybody is getting into real estate, it may be time to get out.
527
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2022 Aug 11, 7:35pm
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2022 Aug 11, 7:35pm
A recent Reventure Consulting video described the top 10 cities with rapidly accelerating RE inventory, where RE prices will crash (Top 10 Cities Where Home Prices will Crash-Record SURGE in Inventory). The dude seems to have some serious Red Bull issues, but he does bring the data. Buyers are saying why buy now as prices will only continue to decrease and inventory will only continue to increase. He is predicting quite significant price cuts in these markets.
1. Boise - inventory is up 150% yoy.
2. Phoenix
3. Colorado Springs
4. Raleigh
5. Austin - market is in freefall.
6. Tampa
7. Seattle - Home sales down 37% yoy.
8. Sacramento
9. Las Vegas
10. Nashville
1. Boise - inventory is up 150% yoy.
2. Phoenix
3. Colorado Springs
4. Raleigh
5. Austin - market is in freefall.
6. Tampa
7. Seattle - Home sales down 37% yoy.
8. Sacramento
9. Las Vegas
10. Nashville
528
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 12, 6:03am
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 12, 6:03am
https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/wlhnzb/market_cooling_fast_in_our_area_will_dropping/
Market cooling FAST in our area--- will dropping price a 3rd time to keep up scare off buyers?
Market cooling FAST in our area--- will dropping price a 3rd time to keep up scare off buyers?
529
Ceffer
2022 Aug 12, 6:13am
Ceffer
2022 Aug 12, 6:13am
House in our hood that was asking top dollar price went off market, came back on sans 100K in asking price, still 100k over even Zillow estimate now. Looks like potentially five to ten percent drop in asking over peak now and peak selling season is almost over. Sales definitely stalling.
Another house already listed lower has gone on and off market twice now. Condos next store are going up for sale in clusters now, after years of low activity. Speculators dumping? Really crappy 810 sq. ft condos going for over 600K peak, now dropping dramatically.
Another house already listed lower has gone on and off market twice now. Condos next store are going up for sale in clusters now, after years of low activity. Speculators dumping? Really crappy 810 sq. ft condos going for over 600K peak, now dropping dramatically.
530
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 12, 6:17am
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 12, 6:17am
https://www.azcentral.com/story/money/real-estate/catherine-reagor/2022/08/11/metro-phoenix-eviction-filings-climb-13-year-high/10272194002/
Metro Phoenix eviction filings climb to 13-year high.
Metro Phoenix eviction filings climb to 13-year high.
531
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 12, 6:18am
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 12, 6:18am
https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/wlta8r/changing_market/
Looking to buy. I’ve been working with my agent since March ish.
Two months ago, I asked her if the market was changing since rates were changing. She said no not at all, the market hasn’t slowed down one bit.
I had three properties on my watch list. My agent asked if I wanted to make an offer. Each was listed for 150k, and I said I wasn’t interested in purchasing a $120k property for 150k. All three properties sat.
Two of them came down in price. The one I really wanted went under contract - and fell out of contract - three times over 58 days, so I opted not to make an offer on whatever the fuck was going on there.
About a month ago, my agent emailed me about the third property. They finally had a price reduction! I look it up. It’s now listed for $147k. I laughed. I said there’s no way I’m paying more than $120k for that house. So we waited and watched.
They dropped the price to $140k. Then $135k. Then $133k. It continued to sit.
My agent emailed me last week and said they dropped the price to $120k! Hahahaa finally
I looked it up. They had relisted it completely to eliminate the price change history.
My agent tells me we should move quickly because it probably won’t last at this price point.
I said “not yet”.
It’s been a week and it’s still sitting.
I’m not in any rush so I think I’ll watch it for another week or so before decided if I want to make a <120k offer or not.
I just think it’s funny my agent insisted the market wasn’t changing, and this property wouldn’t last. We shall see about that.
ETA: 20 min after I made this post, my lender texted me and asked if I was still in the market for a loan. Thirsty.
Looking to buy. I’ve been working with my agent since March ish.
Two months ago, I asked her if the market was changing since rates were changing. She said no not at all, the market hasn’t slowed down one bit.
I had three properties on my watch list. My agent asked if I wanted to make an offer. Each was listed for 150k, and I said I wasn’t interested in purchasing a $120k property for 150k. All three properties sat.
Two of them came down in price. The one I really wanted went under contract - and fell out of contract - three times over 58 days, so I opted not to make an offer on whatever the fuck was going on there.
About a month ago, my agent emailed me about the third property. They finally had a price reduction! I look it up. It’s now listed for $147k. I laughed. I said there’s no way I’m paying more than $120k for that house. So we waited and watched.
They dropped the price to $140k. Then $135k. Then $133k. It continued to sit.
My agent emailed me last week and said they dropped the price to $120k! Hahahaa finally
I looked it up. They had relisted it completely to eliminate the price change history.
My agent tells me we should move quickly because it probably won’t last at this price point.
I said “not yet”.
It’s been a week and it’s still sitting.
I’m not in any rush so I think I’ll watch it for another week or so before decided if I want to make a <120k offer or not.
I just think it’s funny my agent insisted the market wasn’t changing, and this property wouldn’t last. We shall see about that.
ETA: 20 min after I made this post, my lender texted me and asked if I was still in the market for a loan. Thirsty.
532
Onvacation
2022 Aug 12, 6:22am
Onvacation
2022 Aug 12, 6:22am
In my hood a two bed one bath shack has been on the market for a couple months at $700k; still there. The other day a couple new homes, much nicer and twice as big have come on in the same price range.
I have noticed more homes on the local market but the owners still want peak prices which PITI for $1,000 plus over monthly rental rate.
I have noticed more homes on the local market but the owners still want peak prices which PITI for $1,000 plus over monthly rental rate.
« First « Previous Comments 493 - 532 of 5,690 Next » Last » Search these comments
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net
Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.
Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.