patrick.net

https://fortune.com/2022/08/09/housing-bubble-2022-call-robert-shiller-housing-market/

Robert Shiller predicted the 2008 housing bubble. Here’s his 2022 call

On Sunday, Shiller spoke with Yahoo Finance. He told the outlet that he once again thinks the U.S. housing market is headed for trouble.

“Home prices haven’t fallen since the 2007–09 recession. Right now things look almost as bad,” Shiller said. “Existing home sales are down. Permits are down. A lot of signs that we’ll see something. It may not be catastrophic, but it’s time to consider that.”

A drop in home prices, Shiller says, looks very possible.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-sentiment-decade-low-203654331.html

Housing sentiment slides to a decade-plus low

zzyzzx says

stfu says

at a time when the pool of potential buyers is going up

Ummm.... Nope.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-09/home-listings-soar-in-cooling-us-housing-market

Non Paywall:
https://archive.ph/21zQB

You misunderstood. I'm not talking about the pool of people that can afford a mortgage at the increased rates (as your link pertains to). I'm talking about demographics. There are more Millennials than Boomers, and there are more Gen Z's than Gen X.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/797321/us-population-by-generation/

At some point they will buy homes at the same rate that their predecessors did.

I will also point out that the article you linked to says "US HOME SUPPLY SOARS!!!!!!" but they never give you the absolute numbers. Even with soaring inventory it is still below what was considered normal 24 months ago. But continue to hope for a crash, and invest accordingly.

https://fortune.com/2022/08/11/housing-market-inventory-shifts-2022/

Just look at July inventory data. Active listings on realtor.com jumped 128,200 last month to 747,500. That’s the single biggest jump in the site’s database that goes back to 2016. The previous record hike was May 2022 (+106,900 homes) which nearly got surpassed by the June 2022 jump (+102,900 homes).

Among the 917 regional housing markets tracked by realtor.com, 898 saw rising inventory levels—the number of unsold listings—between March and July. Of those, 346 markets saw at least a 100% uptick. In 57 markets, inventory rose by over 200%. That includes Idaho Falls, Idaho (387% uptick); Ogden, Utah (372% uptick); Provo, Utah (371% uptick); Coeur d'Alene, Idaho (365% uptick); and Salt Lake City (355% uptick).

But balance could soon be on the way. Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at HousingWire, thinks we could reach pre-pandemic inventory levels in 2023. Heading into 2022, Mohtashami was on "team higher rates." In his mind, spiking mortgage rates were the only way to pull us out of an "overheated" housing market where historically tight inventory levels gave home shoppers little choice but to engage in bidding wars.

There's another reason to expect more inventory: Homebuilders currently have both a record number of homes under construction and a record number of unsold homes under construction. Those builders are already struggling to sell them. As those new abodes hit the market, it could see some regional housing markets get temporarily oversupplied.

https://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta-based-angel-oak-pays-175-million-sec-fine/OP7KSMGGHJG6JCWQHZJCZ5TMH4/

Atlanta-based Angel Oak pays $1.75 million SEC fine

The company “improperly” moved money around to hide how many of its loans were not being paid back on time, SEC officials said.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-5-percent-140011104.html

Mortgage rates surpass 5% again

The rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage increased to 5.22% from 4.99% the week prior, according to Freddie Mac. While the rate remains lower than the 5.81% registered in June, it’s still 2 percentage points higher than the start of the year.

The jump in rates is discouraging news for sidelined, price-shocked buyers, who are contending with tough affordability conditions. Meanwhile, homeowners are growing wary about selling, as the cooler market has forced some to lower their asking prices.

How can a financial institution lend at rates lower than inflation? Fraudulent market?

Weren't rates close to 6% at one point?

GNLusedtobeWine says

How can a financial institution lend at rates lower than inflation? Fraudulent market?

It's called a mafia front. They are laundering money.

Ever seen a store of some store NOBODY ever enters? That's a front. I used to have a "furniture rental store" near me, and I walked by it often, and never saw a single person enter it. When you see a "bidness" that never gets any traffic, but inexplicably stays around for years, that's a front.

GNLusedtobeWine says

Weren't rates close to 6% at one point?

5.5 IIRC

zzyzzx says

A drop in home prices, Shiller says, looks very possible.

This really isn't a prediction. It's very possible we'll get hit by an astroid.

Shiller is okay at stats, but this isn't even a prediction. It's a maybe guess type play. And any moron that knows what interest rates are knows that housing is gonna slow down. There's nothing outside of hipster areas indicating a crash.

Any crash in housing would be employment created. We have boomers retiring. Employers cannot even find people that want to work. And many boomer kids have stayed with their parents, so they're not selling. In my opinion housing is fine or the foreseeable future in 90% of markets. A few might get beaten up and bring down the median and averages, but I see no doom coming. Aside from the feds doing a mega bump in rates, housing is pretty damn stable right now.

$80,000 PRICE REDUCTION PLUS 1 Point for Buyer Assistance for Mortgage.

Aug 11, 2022
Price Changed
$695,000

Jul 25, 2022
Price Changed

Jul 14, 2022
Price Changed

Jun 28, 2022
Relisted (Active)

Jun 16, 2022
Pending (Yikes, this market is in freefall. I’m outta here!)

Jan 28, 2022
Listed (Active)
$825,000

Fire sale in the condo complex next door in Tri Valley hood. Five signs went up almost overnight. I remember when I coulda bought one of those places cash for 80K, but was too nervous about overextending myself. They are half a million and above now.

zzyzzx says

Rocket Mortgage’s profits drop dramatically in Q2 2022

this is a good canary in the coal mine as far as real estate industry and real estate prices
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zzyzzx says

Mortgage rates surpass 5% again

From what I've seen the 30 year mortgage rate is typically about 2.5% greater than the Fed Funds rate. The mortgage rate got ahead of itself as the Fed was announcing future increases. The Fed Funds rate is 2.5% now, and the Fed is likely to add 0.75% to it next month. I hope they increase the Fed Funds rate to 5% like they did around 1999-2000. That will give them enough margin to reduce the rate without going back to zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) like 2009 - 2016. Obama got too much of a free pass.

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richwicks says

It's called a mafia front. They are laundering money.

Yeah, Russian mob is notorious with this.

Check this out: https://www.facebook.com/ConspiracyCentral.Jellysmack/videos/1098160527574667/

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Ceffer says

Fire sale in the condo complex next door in Tri Valley hood. Five signs went up almost overnight. I remember when I coulda bought one of those places cash for 80K, but was too nervous about overextending myself. They are half a million and above now.

Offer $80K for them.

Once or twice a year I'll check on our favorite property baron to see if he's sold any of his holdings. In a strange coincidence, I did a search today and there was a recent transaction. Ducky just sold the family homestead. Given his impeachable timing, I'd say we're at the peak...

WookieMan says

zzyzzx says

A drop in home prices, Shiller says, looks very possible.

This really isn't a prediction. It's very possible we'll get hit by an astroid.

Shiller is okay at stats, but this isn't even a prediction. It's a maybe guess type play. And any moron that knows what interest rates are knows that housing is gonna slow down. There's nothing outside of hipster areas indicating a crash.

Any crash in housing would be employment created. We have boomers retiring. Employers cannot even find people that want to work. And many boomer kids have stayed with their parents, so they're not selling. In my opinion housing is fine or the foreseeable future in 90% of markets. A few might get beaten up and bring down the median and averages, but I see no doom coming. Aside from the feds doing a mega bump in rates, housing is pretty damn stable right now.

I have seen this before. In Austin, at least 20% of all transaction in SFH are housing speculators. Hold my beer, please WookieMan.

1337irr says

In Austin, at least 20% of all transaction in SFH are housing speculators.

How do you get this data ? Is it through a real estate company source ? Or you check the county appraiser website or property records online ? I usually look at a neighborhood (i.e., home owners association) in my Florida county and check the appraiser website. If a home is not marked for homestead exemption then it is most likely a second home or rented.

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ad says

1337irr says

In Austin, at least 20% of all transaction in SFH are housing speculators.

How do you get this data ? Is it through a real estate company source ? Or you check the county appraiser website or property records online ? I usually look at a neighborhood (i.e., home owners association) in my Florida county and check the appraiser website. If a home is not marked for homestead exemption then it is most likely a second home or rented.

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It's from Reventure Consulting in one of his recent videos for the summer. I don't know how he gets his data but based on my own more qualitative research rather than quantitive. I have a friend from church who bought an investment property, and another that bought a fixed and flip in Austin. Austin has/had a very active real estate investment group that was led by Phil Groves and his wife. If everybody is getting into real estate, it may be time to get out.

A recent Reventure Consulting video described the top 10 cities with rapidly accelerating RE inventory, where RE prices will crash (Top 10 Cities Where Home Prices will Crash-Record SURGE in Inventory). The dude seems to have some serious Red Bull issues, but he does bring the data. Buyers are saying why buy now as prices will only continue to decrease and inventory will only continue to increase. He is predicting quite significant price cuts in these markets.

1. Boise - inventory is up 150% yoy.
2. Phoenix
3. Colorado Springs
4. Raleigh
5. Austin - market is in freefall.
6. Tampa
7. Seattle - Home sales down 37% yoy.
8. Sacramento
9. Las Vegas
10. Nashville

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/wlhnzb/market_cooling_fast_in_our_area_will_dropping/

Market cooling FAST in our area--- will dropping price a 3rd time to keep up scare off buyers?

House in our hood that was asking top dollar price went off market, came back on sans 100K in asking price, still 100k over even Zillow estimate now. Looks like potentially five to ten percent drop in asking over peak now and peak selling season is almost over. Sales definitely stalling.

Another house already listed lower has gone on and off market twice now. Condos next store are going up for sale in clusters now, after years of low activity. Speculators dumping? Really crappy 810 sq. ft condos going for over 600K peak, now dropping dramatically.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/money/real-estate/catherine-reagor/2022/08/11/metro-phoenix-eviction-filings-climb-13-year-high/10272194002/

Metro Phoenix eviction filings climb to 13-year high.

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/wlta8r/changing_market/

Looking to buy. I’ve been working with my agent since March ish.

Two months ago, I asked her if the market was changing since rates were changing. She said no not at all, the market hasn’t slowed down one bit.

I had three properties on my watch list. My agent asked if I wanted to make an offer. Each was listed for 150k, and I said I wasn’t interested in purchasing a $120k property for 150k. All three properties sat.

Two of them came down in price. The one I really wanted went under contract - and fell out of contract - three times over 58 days, so I opted not to make an offer on whatever the fuck was going on there.

About a month ago, my agent emailed me about the third property. They finally had a price reduction! I look it up. It’s now listed for $147k. I laughed. I said there’s no way I’m paying more than $120k for that house. So we waited and watched.

They dropped the price to $140k. Then $135k. Then $133k. It continued to sit.

My agent emailed me last week and said they dropped the price to $120k! Hahahaa finally

I looked it up. They had relisted it completely to eliminate the price change history.

My agent tells me we should move quickly because it probably won’t last at this price point.

I said “not yet”.

It’s been a week and it’s still sitting.

I’m not in any rush so I think I’ll watch it for another week or so before decided if I want to make a <120k offer or not.

I just think it’s funny my agent insisted the market wasn’t changing, and this property wouldn’t last. We shall see about that.

ETA: 20 min after I made this post, my lender texted me and asked if I was still in the market for a loan. Thirsty.

In my hood a two bed one bath shack has been on the market for a couple months at $700k; still there. The other day a couple new homes, much nicer and twice as big have come on in the same price range.

I have noticed more homes on the local market but the owners still want peak prices which PITI for $1,000 plus over monthly rental rate.

Yeah, it's funny watching the greed manifest in the bailers. They had the fixed idea of their fiat wealth and they refuse to give it up to their own detriment rather than price pragmatically.

They think the suckers are still out there in droves.

Ceffer says

They think the suckers are still out there in droves.

If you can't find the sucker, it might be you.

GNLusedtobeWine says

How can a financial institution lend at rates lower than inflation? Fraudulent market?

It should not.
Have you notice that recently banks simply don't care about people money. They can have as much as they need from thin air.
Use to be that banks were in competition with each other by offering higher interest rate on saving accounts, CDs, no fee services. Not anymore.
Economic is out, politics is in.

Guys you have to learn that there will never be a peak. Inflation is permanent, and will only get worse.

Selling is stupid, only reason I'm selling my CA house is because I hate CA government and paying them property taxes. If I didn't hate them that passionately, I'd keep it as a rental and bank on appreciation which is huge.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

3. Colorado Springs

Yeah I noticed Colorado Springs real estate has started to cool down and prices have dropped some. Florida panhandle like Pensacola, Niceville, South Walton, and Panama City are not on the list. I wonder why because its been very active here as far as development.

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