patrick.net

Once or twice a year I'll check on our favorite property baron to see if he's sold any of his holdings. In a strange coincidence, I did a search today and there was a recent transaction. Ducky just sold the family homestead. Given his impeachable timing, I'd say we're at the peak...

WookieMan says

zzyzzx says

A drop in home prices, Shiller says, looks very possible.

This really isn't a prediction. It's very possible we'll get hit by an astroid.

Shiller is okay at stats, but this isn't even a prediction. It's a maybe guess type play. And any moron that knows what interest rates are knows that housing is gonna slow down. There's nothing outside of hipster areas indicating a crash.

Any crash in housing would be employment created. We have boomers retiring. Employers cannot even find people that want to work. And many boomer kids have stayed with their parents, so they're not selling. In my opinion housing is fine or the foreseeable future in 90% of markets. A few might get beaten up and bring down the median and averages, but I see no doom coming. Aside from the feds doing a mega bump in rates, housing is pretty damn stable right now.

I have seen this before. In Austin, at least 20% of all transaction in SFH are housing speculators. Hold my beer, please WookieMan.

1337irr says

In Austin, at least 20% of all transaction in SFH are housing speculators.

How do you get this data ? Is it through a real estate company source ? Or you check the county appraiser website or property records online ? I usually look at a neighborhood (i.e., home owners association) in my Florida county and check the appraiser website. If a home is not marked for homestead exemption then it is most likely a second home or rented.

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1337irr says

In Austin, at least 20% of all transaction in SFH are housing speculators.

How do you get this data ? Is it through a real estate company source ? Or you check the county appraiser website or property records online ? I usually look at a neighborhood (i.e., home owners association) in my Florida county and check the appraiser website. If a home is not marked for homestead exemption then it is most likely a second home or rented.

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It's from Reventure Consulting in one of his recent videos for the summer. I don't know how he gets his data but based on my own more qualitative research rather than quantitive. I have a friend from church who bought an investment property, and another that bought a fixed and flip in Austin. Austin has/had a very active real estate investment group that was led by Phil Groves and his wife. If everybody is getting into real estate, it may be time to get out.

A recent Reventure Consulting video described the top 10 cities with rapidly accelerating RE inventory, where RE prices will crash (Top 10 Cities Where Home Prices will Crash-Record SURGE in Inventory). The dude seems to have some serious Red Bull issues, but he does bring the data. Buyers are saying why buy now as prices will only continue to decrease and inventory will only continue to increase. He is predicting quite significant price cuts in these markets.

1. Boise - inventory is up 150% yoy.
2. Phoenix
3. Colorado Springs
4. Raleigh
5. Austin - market is in freefall.
6. Tampa
7. Seattle - Home sales down 37% yoy.
8. Sacramento
9. Las Vegas
10. Nashville

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/wlhnzb/market_cooling_fast_in_our_area_will_dropping/

Market cooling FAST in our area--- will dropping price a 3rd time to keep up scare off buyers?

House in our hood that was asking top dollar price went off market, came back on sans 100K in asking price, still 100k over even Zillow estimate now. Looks like potentially five to ten percent drop in asking over peak now and peak selling season is almost over. Sales definitely stalling.

Another house already listed lower has gone on and off market twice now. Condos next store are going up for sale in clusters now, after years of low activity. Speculators dumping? Really crappy 810 sq. ft condos going for over 600K peak, now dropping dramatically.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/money/real-estate/catherine-reagor/2022/08/11/metro-phoenix-eviction-filings-climb-13-year-high/10272194002/

Metro Phoenix eviction filings climb to 13-year high.

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/wlta8r/changing_market/

Looking to buy. I’ve been working with my agent since March ish.

Two months ago, I asked her if the market was changing since rates were changing. She said no not at all, the market hasn’t slowed down one bit.

I had three properties on my watch list. My agent asked if I wanted to make an offer. Each was listed for 150k, and I said I wasn’t interested in purchasing a $120k property for 150k. All three properties sat.

Two of them came down in price. The one I really wanted went under contract - and fell out of contract - three times over 58 days, so I opted not to make an offer on whatever the fuck was going on there.

About a month ago, my agent emailed me about the third property. They finally had a price reduction! I look it up. It’s now listed for $147k. I laughed. I said there’s no way I’m paying more than $120k for that house. So we waited and watched.

They dropped the price to $140k. Then $135k. Then $133k. It continued to sit.

My agent emailed me last week and said they dropped the price to $120k! Hahahaa finally

I looked it up. They had relisted it completely to eliminate the price change history.

My agent tells me we should move quickly because it probably won’t last at this price point.

I said “not yet”.

It’s been a week and it’s still sitting.

I’m not in any rush so I think I’ll watch it for another week or so before decided if I want to make a <120k offer or not.

I just think it’s funny my agent insisted the market wasn’t changing, and this property wouldn’t last. We shall see about that.

ETA: 20 min after I made this post, my lender texted me and asked if I was still in the market for a loan. Thirsty.

In my hood a two bed one bath shack has been on the market for a couple months at $700k; still there. The other day a couple new homes, much nicer and twice as big have come on in the same price range.

I have noticed more homes on the local market but the owners still want peak prices which PITI for $1,000 plus over monthly rental rate.

Yeah, it's funny watching the greed manifest in the bailers. They had the fixed idea of their fiat wealth and they refuse to give it up to their own detriment rather than price pragmatically.

They think the suckers are still out there in droves.

Ceffer says

They think the suckers are still out there in droves.

If you can't find the sucker, it might be you.

GNLusedtobeWine says

How can a financial institution lend at rates lower than inflation? Fraudulent market?

It should not.
Have you notice that recently banks simply don't care about people money. They can have as much as they need from thin air.
Use to be that banks were in competition with each other by offering higher interest rate on saving accounts, CDs, no fee services. Not anymore.
Economic is out, politics is in.

Guys you have to learn that there will never be a peak. Inflation is permanent, and will only get worse.

Selling is stupid, only reason I'm selling my CA house is because I hate CA government and paying them property taxes. If I didn't hate them that passionately, I'd keep it as a rental and bank on appreciation which is huge.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

3. Colorado Springs

Yeah I noticed Colorado Springs real estate has started to cool down and prices have dropped some. Florida panhandle like Pensacola, Niceville, South Walton, and Panama City are not on the list. I wonder why because its been very active here as far as development.

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It's real estate Monkey Pox!

More inventory coming up in Santa Cruz, common to see hundreds of thousands of reduction off previous asking prices. It looks like speculators are bailing (20 percent of residential market?).

Surprising to see stuff come up so fast. Kind of unheard of since the last couple of years. Heard Santa Cruz is the second most expensive rental market to San Francisco. Little lady we see on walks said her landlord (rooming house) doubled their rent overnight. Combine that with general inflation, all kinds of fuckation for people without reserves.

FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut says

Selling is stupid, only reason I'm selling my CA house is because I hate CA government and paying them property taxes. If I didn't hate them that passionately, I'd keep it as a rental and bank on appreciation which is huge.

Smart decision in my opine. I recall when you hadn't decided. keeping it might be smart in a red state in the right area. Even in TX I may sell mine before the 30 year mortgage is up. Reason being San Antonio tends to spread out in an urban sprawl concentric circle. People move outward for the nicer places and the interior goes to shit.

My former nice high school is full of gang bangers now.

Plus you can prob buy a more local quad-plex for what you sell it for. Investing in RE for appreciation is risky as all hell. Go for cash flow. Let the appreciation be the icing on the cake. If it comes and goes no problem. When it comes sell if you want.

Sell now or be priced down FOREVER!

On that note I move to SA in about 6 weeks. I'm going to rent at first and most of the houses in the area are owned and leased by Progress Residential. Same neighborhood as mine are.

OMG, big mistake but I don't have time to change it now and am interested in learning what people experience with my competition.

Nice house but I have to pay $15/month for a stupid smart lock (they use that to call it a smart home). I think the central air can be automated with my phone. There was a dumb $125 service fee. I've been dinged $35 twice for using a credit card to pay for stuff because they put artificial pre-payment deadlines and my bank still isn't connected via AHC. I'm going to be late because some more fees were not clear up front but I don't care. They'll have to push it out. I'm not doing that again. I have renters insurance but they will be charging me $17/month until I put their name on it.

The longest lease I've ever read in my life slanted hard toward them. I have to give 60 days notice. After 12 months if it goes month to month it goes to 120% without notice. I'm responsible for fixing broken sprinklers?!

Needless to say I'm just going to use it for a 10 month landing pad then find something else. I'm not going to kick out my renters.

Anyone who thinks I'm not providing a great service as a landlord there doesn't know WTF they are talking about.

Also, we need to put the kibosh on these large corps buying up houses. This is my first experience of, "You'll own nothing and be happy", - my ass

This is typical for renting from our corporate overlords, and they should be avoided.

just_passing_through says

On that note I move to SA in about 6 weeks. I'm going to rent at first and most of the houses in the area are owned and leased by Progress Residential. Same neighborhood as mine are.

OMG, big mistake but I don't have time to change it now and am interested in learning what people experience with my competition.

Nice house but I have to pay $15/month for a stupid smart lock (they use that to call it a smart home). I think the central air can be automated with my phone. There was a dumb $125 service fee. I've been dinged $35 twice for using a credit card to pay for stuff because they put artificial pre-payment deadlines and my bank still isn't connected via AHC. I'm going to be late because some more fees were not clear up front but I don't care. They'll have to push it out. I'm not doing that again. I have renters insurance but they will be charging me $17/month until I put their name on it.

The longest lease I've ever read in my life slanted hard t...

This ^^^

Fuck corporate ownership of SFH properties. The mom & pops are awesome, at least those that are not hand to mouth. The hand to mouth landlords try to scam, but they don't have the money for lawyers when you threaten them with a lawsuit, so they usually back down.

I lived in a corporate owned apartment. They wanted me to sign some rediculous agreement (they were switching how the utility charges were apportioned). I dug up state law showing what they were doing was illegal and made them sign my agreement where I ended up paying a fixed amount - otherwise I'd tell the state AG what they were trying to do. I enjoyed watching that corporate cunt writhe while she signed.

Booger says

,

Booger, it is waterfront property on 1.72 acres. That will attract the type who want an expensive fishing boat moored in the back. Its tax assessment or assessed value went from $200,000 in 1999 to $600,000 in 2020. As a very rough order of magnitude (ROM) estimate, I would say it is worth $600,000 times 1.20 or $720,000.

So $800,000 is not unreasonable. What gets me is that it was last sold in 2021 for $1,025,000.

Back around July 2021 the 30 year rate was 3% and now is around 5%, so a 20% drop in price is in line with the general rule that real estate drops 10% for every 1% increase in the 30 year rate.

I wonder who bought it and why they are trying to sell it at a loss now.
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https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/14254-Mount-Pleasant-Rd-Jacksonville-FL-32225/44584254_zpid/

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I don't see screened in back yards. Maybe there are less skeeters that far North?

just_passing_through says

I don't see screened in back yards. Maybe there are less skeeters that far North?

Yeah, Jacksonville like Florida panhandle is still Florida especially with respect to mosquitoes, wetlands, palm trees, and even citrus. Both get warm weather but about 75 days less warm weather than South Florida. Beach weather is from early March to mid November, whereas South Florida's beach weather is about 10 months.

You can grow Hamlin oranges and grapefruit as far north as the border with Georgia or Alabama.

I suspect that Jacksonville has a mosquito control board that is very effective.

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ad says

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

3. Colorado Springs

Yeah I noticed Colorado Springs real estate has started to cool down and prices have dropped some. Florida panhandle like Pensacola, Niceville, South Walton, and Panama City are not on the list. I wonder why because its been very active here as far as development.

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Housing crash is moving from West to East and may skip the Midwest. It may take until 2023 for it to hit Florida.

I'm still waiting for Boise to drop

Booger says

Housing crash is moving from West to East and may skip the Midwest. It may take until 2023 for it to hit Florida.

Depends as long as there are enough people from the North who are selling homes at a greater price than the homes they buy in Florida.

But I agree, as I am seeing some cooling off here in the Florida panhandle as prices have obviously peaked.

My wife said our townhome (2 miles from the beach) should have a bottom price of a value that is based on 4% annual appreciation from when we bought it in summer 2016.

We bought it for $187,000 so that means (1.04)^6 x $187,000 which is $237,000. The last price sold for an identical home was $300,000 about 4 months ago.

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Hold my beer.

RedStar says

I'm still waiting for Boise to drop

You'll be waiting for a long time. Wookieman says price reductions are unpossible.

ad says

Depends as long as there are enough people from the North who are selling homes at a greater price than the homes they buy in Florida.

Demographics in certain parts of Florida, St Petersburg in particular, suggests that people need to be frantically moving into the area to replace all the people dying to keep the population steady. Also, Florida, and a few other places, are famous for having people migrate in waves. It's possible, maybe more like probable, that the pandemic simply pushed people's timeline forward too, and demand for housing in Florida at current prices is a huge deterrent as well. Same for Atlanta and Charlotte.

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I wonder who bought it and why they are trying to sell it at a loss now.

Probably for carryover losses anticipating the market was going down and they had a good year doing something else to avoid a big tax bill. Rarely does anyone sell at a loss for fun. It was likely a tax strategy and they just paid a little PITI and wrote off a big tax bill. A $225k loss can get you out of some big tax bills if it was an investment and not owner occupied.

https://www.statesman.com/story/business/technology/2022/08/12/homeward-real-estate-startup-austin-tx-layoffs/65402005007/

Austin real estate startup Homeward to lay off 20% of employees