patrick.net

cisTits says

RWSGFY says

Explain how your "typical commercial diving company" would avoid their support vessel being detected by various means of surveillance and traced back

Simple. They go over the area in the ship, let them dive over board. Keep on a going. Then come back.

Also, you seem to think that spot is under 24/7 survelliance. It wasn't. The gas leak wasn't detected until Danish fighter jets flew over it, for example.

It was not detected because nobody was looking for it. The data being collected is not automatically going in front of human eyeballs 100% of the time. But when they go into all the data looking for something they would find the weird vessel maneuvers over the spot of interest.

@RWSFGY

perhaps the most productive collection of predictions would be from early days of Russian attack on Ukraine. I believe most of PDS crowd made brilliantly flawed predictions, which makes me think that their current predictions will be wrong as well.

richwicks says

Ukraine will likely have a Russian puppet as their "leader"

Well, they already did, then the US replaced him with their own puppet who funneled lots of money to the Biden crime family.

It's never over.

Eric Holder says

What is the fact? I don't need no stinking articles to know that the idea of diving 70 meters with a pack of explosives and setting the whole thing up (times 6) w/o a surface support vessel which is bound to be detected and traced back is fucking looney tunes. It's either submarines or pigs, period.

How hard is it to make a robot that follows a metal pipeline and then explodes after travelling some pre-programmed distance?

This operation could have started on land. There's no need for a support vessel, or having divers do this. The only location I can get for where the rupture is Bornholm, which is about 50 miles from where the pipeline hits land at Lubmin. That's kind of a brute force way of doing it, it's easy enough to use a robot sub to find the point and then dive and find the pipe, and kaboom.

There's really no reason to involve people in these sort of operations in setting up the explosions. This isn't 1950. I would bet this could have been done remotely, quite easily, in 2000.

PREDICTION: PUTIN FACES 'IRREVERSIBLE’ DEFEAT: Russia’s retreat from a key logistics hub in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region in the face of advancing Ukrainian forces is not only another embarrassing defeat for Russian President Vladimir Putin but may also mark a fundamental shift in momentum in favor of Ukraine, say former U.S. commanders.

“No amount of shambolic mobilization, which is the only way to describe it, no amount of annexation, no amount of even veiled nuclear threats can actually get [Putin] out of this particular situation,” said retired Army Gen. David Petraeus on ABC on Sunday. “He is losing, and the battlefield reality he faces is, I think, irreversible.”

“The reality facing Russia now is that Ukraine, a country a third the size of Russia, has a bigger, much more effective army on the ground, and other assets as well,” said Petraeus. “He's already lost a really critical element in that, a critical city that would have been a very key supply hub had they been able to go farther. And that's just going to continue. He's going to continue to lose on the battlefield. And at some point, there's going to have to be recognition of that.”

The liberation rail hub of Lyman (pron: lee-MON) came as Russian forces melted away without a fight, taking up what the Russian Defense Ministry called “more advantageous positions.”

“This is a tremendous victory for the Ukrainians. And it's a victory that I think that they could turn into a cascading series of defeats of Russian forces,” said retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster on CBS. “What we might be at here is really at the precipice of really the collapse of the Russian army in Ukraine, a moral collapse.”

“They must really be at a breaking point, if you look at just the numbers of casualties, the vast area that they're trying to defend,” said McMaster, former President Donald Trump’s first national security adviser. “I think it's very important also to understand that these forces that are in full retreat now out of Lyman were really the first round of mobilization. … Those forces were hastily trained, thrown into that front, and these are the forces that are collapsing right now.”

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/russian-army-on-precipice-of-collapse-say-us-generals-as-russian-retreat-from-lyman-marks-tipping-point-in-seven-month-war-in-ukraine

cisTits says

OMG total NeoCon propaganda.

Esp coming from Prataeus and WashEx.

Good thing it's registered in the predictions thread.

cisTits says

Established facts are not predictions.

Spoilsport.

cisTits says

Established facts are not predictions.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves: "PUTIN FACES 'IRREVERSIBLE’ DEFEAT" is not an established fact yet and is labeled as a prediction.

I understand the appeal of the underdog. I'm usually siding for them. But you guys have to know, whether you'll ever admit it or not, that thinking Ukraine can ever possibly defend itself against Russia is ludicrous right? Russia is a world power. Ukraine is a laundry mat, on it's way to a failed state that's sold all it's assets to foreign interests, a la Venezuela, Mexico, etc.

US advisors don't change that any more than they did in SE Asia. The only reason this isn't over is Ukraine may still have some assets that need to be positioned for sale, and NWO is desperately trying to third world US by offloading what's left of our wealth through Ukraine.

It's not a prediction, but my hope is this war ends as soon as possible, and the causalities end.

This is a hopeless war, it's like beating up a 10 year old kid. The sooner this ends, the better.

Russia will take control of Russian speaking areas, and Ukraine will be under their thumb again. Russia hasn't even deployed serious forces yet, nor used their best weaponry. This stupidity will just kill people at best, and at worst, will lead to World War III. Zelenskyy is nothing more than a quizzling. I hope the traitor is executed for what he's done. I hope he doesn't escape.

NuttBoxer says

Russia is a world power.

Was. It's not a peer for the US in anything except maybe nuclear capabilities and it's pretty damn clear but they still demand ridiculous concessions based on their former "glory". This is not how it works. If your army is that shitty, your navy is a fucking joke and your air force can't get air superiority over an adversary with a hodgepodge of old Soviet SAMs and some Western MANPADs after 7 months it's a sign that maybe, just maybe, you should stick to your borders and not go on grand imperial adventures to expand your (already biggest in the world) territory.

If you’re going to start a nuclear war, you’re wrong and nothing else matters. I feel like the Millennials never got the world crushing horror we Xers endured with our morning bowl of Wheaties in the what seemed inevitable end of the world with a nuclear exchange between the USA and Russia. So many books and movies written about what would or could happen. They all agreed on this point: that very few would survive and most of them would die over the next few years.

Shaman says

If you’re going to start a nuclear war, you’re wrong and nothing else matters.

Exactly. Ruscia is 100% wrong here. They should take their L and go home, just like US did in Vietnam. Throwing a temper tantrum and threatening everybody with nukes over failed attempt to expand their empire is the sign of complete delusion and mental weakness.

richwicks says

How hard is it to make a robot that follows a metal pipeline and then explodes after travelling some pre-programmed distance?

Some argument for an air launched attack:
https://www.monkeywerxus.com/blog/the-nord-stream-2-pipeline-sabotage

I grew up with fear of nuclear war. It was constant during the early 60's.
There were signs on buildings indicating nuclear shelter; we took drills in school and hid under our desks.
The Twilight Zone which we all loved had numerous episodes on nuclear war. Let me try to recall them.
1. After nuclear holocaust, the survivors in a town listened to an "oracle" in a cave to keep them alive. Some Mad Max guys rode into town and said "let's eat the canned food!" The oracle said not to and they all died; the oracle was a computer in the cave.
2. After the holocaust, Charles Bronson meets the enemy Elizabeth Montgomery. They first consider fighting then decide to become "Adam and Eve".
3. A guy has a fallout shelter in his basement; there is a report of nuclear attack and his neighbors all want to get in. Fighting ensues, and it's later just a false alarm.
4. Burgess Meredith loves to read during his lunch break; he goes inside the quiet bank vault with the huge door. The world is destroyed and he emerges but drops his glasses and breaks them, so he'll be unable to read in peace.
5. A group of people working on a rocket hear that nuclear war is imminent. They decide to escape with it and head to the "third planet from the sun", a twist ending since you assume they're on Earth.
6. A man who has a deep bunker to escape nuclear war (Dr. No actor) brings some people down and tells them they're all safe. He has a TV monitor of the situation above. They don't want to stay down with him and he goes up to "destroyed" earth which is actually not destroyed but he is delusional.
I may have left out an episode but those come to mind.
Putin launching nukes on Ukraine will have taken the final desperate step to his own final demise; the West and NATO will unleash a gigantic response. They won't have any choice.
I'm depressed lately; I grew up with assholes running a lot of the world; Mao, Castro, Johnson, Brezhnev, Ho, and others.
I had hopes of things improving but we still have some assholes like Putin, Xi, Biden, Fauci, Powell, etc. having power over people.
My younger friend at the gym asks me why I'm grumpy; I tell him "because everything sucks!"

RWSGFY says

Shaman says

If you’re going to start a nuclear war, you’re wrong and nothing else matters.

Exactly. Ruscia is 100% wrong here. They should take their L and go home, just like US did in Vietnam. Throwing a temper tantrum and threatening everybody with nukes over failed attempt to expand their empire is the sign of complete delusion and mental weakness.

Really? So if a neighboring state decides that a whole bunch of people who would rather be a part of your country than theirs should die in a purge, you should respect that state’s boundaries and not interfere with the planned genocide?

Because that’s the exact situation Russia was presented with. The Ukraine Nazi brigades surrounded the Donbas region and began shelling. They intended to wipe out ethnic Russian population or drive them over the border to never come back.

Putin said no and launched his war.

How many times has America gone to war to “save” a country of people from their dictator or another country which threatened it?
Can we even count that high?

If you’re going to be a war hawk, try to have some consistency, or we will have to assume you’re a mindless shill for the globalists.

Shaman says

try to have some consistency,

So Putin supports the legitimacy of Kosovo as an independent state?

https://patrick.net/post/1347658/2022-10-04-germans-to-dieoff-as-soon-as-this-winter

Shaman says

... if a neighboring state decides that a whole bunch of people who would rather be a part of your country than theirs should die in a purge,

What exact RL event are you referring to here? Or is it a pure hypothetical? Then yawn.

Don't know the guy's bona fides but here's a prediction in the form of "cock and balls plan":



https://mobile.twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1577033853180387328

RWSGFY says

Was. It's not a peer for the US in anything

I'm guessing your supposition is based on the USSR breakup actually changing anything? It definitely did not. Now you know I'm the first to admit that Communism is what bankrupts countries, but I think in the case of the USSR, they've been able to rely on their natural resources to keep their government power right where they want it.

I would actually rank governments ability to wage and win war with China first, Russia second, and the US third. They've exported manufacturing to China, sold all our tech, or allowed it to be stolen by China and Russia, all the while shipping our wealth and assets overseas. Under Obama they started purging our military, under Bush they engaged us in endless war, and we are now a shell of what we used to be.

The only reason this country stands as it is. We have a fuck ton of private guns, and you still need a ground war to conquer us. And no one, not even our own government wants to wake that sleeping giant.

This war/atrocity will last exactly as long as Russia, the US, and England want it to. Once Ukraine's bones are picked, and their people are destitute, that's when it will finally come to an end. But who gives a fuck, we're too busy hating some Ruskies right?

NuttBoxer says

RWSGFY says

Was. It's not a peer for the US in anything

I'm guessing your supposition is based on the USSR breakup actually changing anything?

No, based purely on performance. Military, economic, technological, scientific. All pathetic. They are turning to Iran for the latest wunderwaffe "moped" drones, for Pete's sake. Does it sound like a peer to the US?

Eric Holder says

What exact RL event are you referring to here?

I posted the interviews with people who lost kids, you ignored it. Would you like another antiwar.com link? I guess even genocide is ok as long as it's your side doing it...

RWSGFY says

Does it sound like a peer to the US?

The US gets its stuff from China, a known enemy.

"Here’s the weird thing: By any actual reality-based measure, Vladimir Putin is not losing the war in Ukraine. He is winning the war in Ukraine! " -- Tucker Carlson

NuttBoxer says

RWSGFY says

Does it sound like a peer to the US?

The US gets its stuff from China, a known enemy.

This is a politician-level dodge. Very skillfully done.

"Here’s the weird thing: By any actual reality-based measure, Vladimir Putin is not losing the war in Ukraine. He is winning the war in Ukraine! " -- Tucker Carlson

Eric Holder says

Does it sound like a peer to the US?

The US gets its stuff from China, a known enemy.

This is a politician-level dodge. Very skillfully done.

So buying stuff from an enemy with a long and recent history of stealing from us is superior to buying stuff from a friend? As long as it's the latest and greatest, who cares how much spyware, remote control shit is jammed in there? I think your threat model needs some re-analysis. Also, I'm a bit worried about your home invasion situation. I'm imagining ED-209 set to a default password of "password".

Eric Holder says

"Here’s the weird thing: By any actual reality-based measure, Vladimir Putin is not losing the war in Ukraine. He is winning the war in Ukraine! " -- Tucker Carlson

This is not only a military assessment which is all over the place. It's because Europe was supposed to do business with its partners in the east instead of continuing to be vasall states of the US. This war illustrates the need to break free from the US for Europe, and for the US to break free from their "obligations" in Europe.

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=1885383

mell says

This war illustrates the need to break free from the US for Europe

... so they finally can become total Putin's bitches, not half-bitches like now.

Hugh_Mongous says

mell says

This war illustrates the need to break free from the US for Europe

... so they finally can become total Putin's bitches, not half-bitches like now.

Wait you guys keep saying putin doesn't know shit and Russians are incapable. So hardly a problem for Europe. Plus, before the corrupt leftoid US stooges staged a coup in the Ukraine and installed a corrupt puppet government, Europe and putin got along pretty well. It's none of anyone's business. Let them figure it out and do business with whom they see fit. It would be asinine to let all that nat gas go to waste just to appease hunter xidens cocaine crackpot friends.

RWSGFY says

No, based purely on performance. Military, economic, technological, scientific. All pathetic. They are turning to Iran for the latest wunderwaffe "moped" drones, for Pete's sake. Does it sound like a peer to the US?

The job of the MIC is to spend money, not win wars. If Iran can build weapons more cheaply and effectively than Russia can, that has a total cost lower or Russians doing it, they are making a logical choice. It's just economics stupid.

If you can build a drone that can take out 1000 targets before it's destroyed that costs a billion dollars, versus 1000 dones that (on average) take out one target before they are destroyed at the cost of $1,000 each, the decision of the United States is ALWAYS the superdrone. It makes sense because it makes money. The F35 is a disaster in the air, but it cost 1.5 trillion dollars to develop and manufacture. It's a total success. Doesn't matter how it works in the battlefield. For fucks sake, the US made the Bradley fighting vehicle that was made out of ALUMINUM, a flammable material. Aluminium burns. They may as well have made it out of explosives.

They don't give a shit if it works, they only care if it's expensive. They care about profits, it doesn't matter one fucking bit if the US wins its wars, which is why the US doesn't really win wars. The US is still in conflict with Iraq. Could you imagine if we fought that war the way we did in WWII? It would have been over in less than 2 months, and it would have been then run by a military general as dictator, and it would be on its way toward development like Japan was a year later. It would be a popular vacation spot for Americans and Europeans.

Hugh_Mongous says

... so they finally can become total Putin's bitches, not half-bitches like now.

Europe is the US' bitch. To demonstrate this, the US blew up a pipeline to make their stupid dumbass citizens realize this. They can contemplate it, while they freeze to death this winter.

NuttBoxer says

I posted the interviews with people who lost kids, you ignored it. Would you like another antiwar.com link? I guess even genocide is ok as long as it's your side doing it...

Of course it is. The US has murdered, by current estimate, 9 million people over the last 20 years bombing Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, and Libya. You know who cares? Nobody, apparently.

I think I've probably said it in this thread or another. Whether Russia "wins" in the end they've ultimately looked very weak. Talking of resorting to a tactical nuke strike? On a land based neighbor? This should have been a cake walk for them or they could have bought the land with all those supposed resources they have. Putin has failed just like Bush and Obama.

Whether we won or lost any recent wars we at least managed to control parts of large countries for years halfway around the globe. Russia has had a loss of a major ship for their navy and this isn't even a sea war. They have more people. They do their version of a draft and everyone runs. This is the opposite of success even if Russia gets the land they want in the long run.

Fact is our society is too modern for people to want to actually fight a war. You're looking at maybe 1-2% of men. And even then, most of them do it for military pay or free college in the case of the US military. Otherwise they'd be working at a gas station.

WookieMan says

Fact is our society is too modern for people to want to actually fight a war.

Fear or anger would do it. A despicable false flag attack, for example, could even motivate an attack on a guiltess country.

Anyone predict the Kerch bridge getting hit on Putin's birthday?

Booger says

Anyone predict the Kerch bridge getting hit on Putin's birthday?

You are late to the party:

https://patrick.net/post/1347686/2022-10-06-the-party-is-about-to-begin

Prediction: as long as Biden is in the White House and Democrats and neocons control Congress, the us government will continue to fund and engage in wars around the world that make us (Americans) less safe and take our money to spend it on killing people. This includes Ukraine. It is not in our best interest to be involved in any way, except in negotiating peace.