patrick.net

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3827057-survey-finds-americans-wildly-misinformed-on-housing-market/

https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/bay-area-housing-market-cooling-17731732.php

Bay Area home prices fell more than anywhere else in US last month

zzyzzx says

Bay Area home prices fell more than anywhere else in US last month

Good. The high prices have made life miserable here.

B.A.C.A.H. says

zzyzzx says

Bay Area home prices fell more than anywhere else in US last month

Good. The high prices have made life miserable here.

I mildly suspect the fall will get worst because of Prop 13.

cisTits says

DR Horton Reports 40% DROP in Sales (Housing Crash Denial Spreads)

https://www.reventure.app/blog/dr-horton-reports-40-crash-in-sales-housing-crash-denial-spreads

You might as well literally live in a cardboard box in LA or SFBA anyway. DR houses are shit. Link doesn't load. And it says 40% in sales, not value in the link. That's pure clickbait. Sales/building will drop off if you're not building in anticipation of a drop off in sales so your prices don't drop.

Maybe prices are dropping in other places, but I'll keep saying it, they aren't here. No one is building and there's maybe 2 homes for sale out of 800 in my town. The rest of the country is not the West coast. People are moving OUT of CA and not into CA. Your numbers are going to be shit for the foreseeable future, I don't disagree with that. Out of the 39M people living there I'd get out of the dumpster fire. It doesn't get better.

The California dream is over. Most major films and shows don't even film there anymore. You have desert towns in CA, but you've got Alec Baldwin shooting people in New Mexico. Many weekly sitcoms are filmed here in Chicago. Atlanta is a big film spot. CA has lost its luster. Major personal brands are fleeing like Ben Shapiro. Joe Rogan. The list is getting bigger. Since prices are so high in CA it's going to drag the median down nationwide as I've said. It does NOT mean we're in a housing crash.

cisTits,

What is your prediction for home values?

cisTits says

Don't go after me with crap like this again unless you want to be reamed again and in a harsher way in future.

Lol. Get triggered much? 40% drop in SALES is not a drop in PRICES. That's not a strawman or even a dispute. The headline says sales, not price. Really confused where you are going with this.

Unless there's more inventory on the market it is unlikely to result in any meaningful price drops. We'll see this spring. Interest rates will stall PRICES nationally and CA (YOUR PRICES) may be in for a rough ride with the JOB LOSSES I've been talking about. I've been saying this would have to be a job loss housing crash IF housing even gets hit that hard. And even then the floor is pretty high on housing price losses.

SALES could drop 40% for DR because they got 40% less buyers wanting to build 5 months ago, so they didn't build and SALES went down. SALES will naturally go down in that scenario. We haven't built enough new inventory over the last decade and a half as is. These companies got burned leading up to 2006, they've learned. Don't overbuild if people aren't buying. They want to keep the prices up and over building brings them down.

Existing home sales are a better metric. But with regard to SALES, that could mean people are just staying put.

We're talking simple supply and demand economics. It's not an argument. You have ripped nothing on me. Show me year over year price losses in housing that are worse than -10%, regionally and not in a shit area/city like St. Louis or Memphis. Not one cherry picked neighborhood or individual house sales price history. PRICES, not gross SALES of homes. There simply aren't homes for sale in much of the country.

Inventory has to increase to show whether prices go down or not. You're talking about a home builder that probably didn't get contracts on new builds, so they didn't build, so sales dropped. So they layoff or drop contractors and sell the remaining 60% of what they built. Fact is it's a clickbait article using SALES from a builder who can scale up and down within a month or two. They scaled down.... Not much else to it.

Hell, even if the link did open, look at the source. I played this game for 15 years dude. Look at the image you posted. That's pure click bait. As I've said, I'm not bullish on housing, but this isn't 2006 2.0, where an 18 year old with no income could buy a $500k house. No one is moving because they locked in low interest rates. They have to buy a new place at higher interest rates. SALES will fall. It's inventory. No strawman there. Just a fact. Let me know when I'm wrong and you've "ripped" me.

An interesting take on the housing market. Points out that pending new home inventory is often left out of an analysis of supply and demand. And so you can have price declines with an apparent low inventory.

Apologies but not on Rumble.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQXr_5coj84&t=310s

This is interesting. I watched people's shopping carts at the grocery store yesterday. People are just buying the essentials.

I agree with Wookieman. I'm a real estate photographer and talk to many Realtors (yes, I realize they are sales people but, it makes sense what most of them are saying which is what wookieman is saying). Some seem to believe rates will come down in May. Not so sure I agree with that but, we'll see.

Low inventory will rule unless inflation goes ballistic or job losses go ballistic. There is a ton of boomer $$ out there. If it weren't for boomers, I believe starter homes, condos and townhouses would be priced considerably lower. That's my opinion.

CisTits

I ask your opinion because you are so confident in your discourse. Why wouldn't I ask you? What is your prediction on home prices for ANY market?

zzyzzx says

I guess Floridians don't know California! Costs such as insurance and property tax pale compare to California's state income tax and state/local sales tax. As for hurricanes... here in California we don't even buy insurance for earthquakes because it's too expensive! Add to that the mud slides, forest fires, week long power outages, and occasion BLM "protest" that seems to cause a lot of broken windows and fires and I'll take my chances with a modern, well-built house in Florida. (Note that a modern, well-built houses in Florida only cost $1MM, whereas new construction in California is nearly non-existent.)

zzyzzx says

https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/bay-area-housing-market-cooling-17731732.php

Bay Area home prices fell more than anywhere else in US last month

Basic math: If all metro areas fall by 20%, then the highest-priced area will fall by the most $$$.

SunnyvaleCA says

I'll take my chances with a modern, well-built house in Florida.

You might, but the mortage guarantor won't, without the insurance.

FYI: Residential median sales price for southwestern Utah - down 0.4% year over year December 22 compared to December 21. Median price for residential from peak pricing (April 22) compared to December 31, 22 down 17%. Inventory as of last week up 215% YoY and up 263% from bottom in inventory (February 22). We had a whole lot of Californians moving here over those two years, not so much now.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Seattle/comments/10m0cug/bought_a_house_at_the_peak_nearby_houses_are/

Bought a house at the Peak; nearby houses are going for 600K less than our house

Booger says

https://www.reddit.com/r/Seattle/comments/10m0cug/bought_a_house_at_the_peak_nearby_houses_are/

Bought a house at the Peak; nearby houses are going for 600K less than our house

You cant fix stupid

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/us-median-home-price-drops-12-in-six-months-largest-drop-since-2009/

From the article...

"San Francisco home prices have already fallen 30% from peak.

Denver, Austin, and Phoenix are all pushing 20% drops from peak.

It’s real. It’s happening. It’s not “small”."

I'm not that interested in this subject, but out of curiosity I looked.
The Redfin page says $1.28 million median home price in San Francisco, down 13.3% from last year.
Either way, 1. houses are a fortune up there 2. some people are pissed off 3. some people are happy.

The thing with houses is that they are ever popular. It's interesting to see.
Rich gazillionaires sometimes buy multiple houses, including fucking castles, etc.

After a certain level of wealth, you can afford fancy hotels for every day of your life; why own a castle in addition to your beach house in Malibu?

clambo says

After a certain level of wealth, you can afford fancy hotels for every day of your life; why own a castle in addition to your beach house in Malibu?

This is what Musk realized (and acted upon).

zzyzzx says

Lol! Sadly this is almost true at least in CA after 1978 prop 13. Boomers never cared even if it is hurting their own children.

Right now is not the time to invest in housing. Prices may continue to climb for a while as it continues to be a tight market. If you are a homebuyer, or a young person looking to buy a home, you need a bit of a reset. We need to get back to a place where supply and demand are back together and where inflation is down low again, and mortgage rates are low again. - Jerome Powell, June 14, 2022

In 2019, two home-sellers filed a lawsuit [Sitzer et al v. National Association of Realtors (NAR)], alleging that several NAR rules violate the Sherman Antitrust Act, an 1890 law which prohibits activities that restrict interstate commerce and competition. One of the NAR rules in question requires listing brokers to offer buyer brokers a commission to list a property. The lawsuit alleges that this practice inflates sellers' costs and, therefore, is anticompetitive. Traditionally, it takes two agents to sell a house: a buyer's agent and a seller's agent. However, if NAR loses the suit, the real estate industry would effectively see buyers' agents removed from the equation. That means the number of real estate agents in the U.S. (there are 1.5 million right now, according to NAR), could drop precipitously .

"You could see hundreds of thousands of real estate agents leaving the profession, and major brokerages go out of business," said Oppenheim. "We're on the precipice of an armageddon that nobody talks about."

There's hope for a settlement with regulators or an appeal process, but there's a high likelihood the marketplace for real estate agents is about to get majorly overhauled, said Oppenheim. He added that we could see the U.S. ultimately turn towards a model with lower total commissions, as is the case in Australia.

https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/district-courts/missouri/mowdce/4:2019cv00332/145710/741/

gabbar says

Right now is not the time to invest in housing. Prices may continue to climb for a while as it continues to be a tight market. If you are a homebuyer, or a young person looking to buy a home, you need a bit of a reset. We need to get back to a place where supply and demand are back together and where inflation is down low again, and mortgage rates are low again. - Jerome Powell, June 14, 2022

Actually, this was the time where housing prices peaked….if not a month or two before.

Low inflation and low mortgage rates happened through out the whole 2010’s especially the first half of 2010’s. Whoever didn’t buy after the housing bust missed an opportunity once in a lifetime. Prices have gone up 2-4x since. In the lower end markets, some have gone up 10x since.

GNL says

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/us-median-home-price-drops-12-in-six-months-largest-drop-since-2009/

From the article...

"San Francisco home prices have already fallen 30% from peak.

Denver, Austin, and Phoenix are all pushing 20% drops from peak.

It’s real. It’s happening. It’s not “small”."

The author is cursing in his article? So professional. If prices are dropping, they’re dropping. It’s a fact. Present the data to back up his thesis. No need to curse. This indicates the author is likely a renter, has missed his buying opportunity, and is simply outraged at Bay Area real estate prices.

To me, it is what it is. Use the data, make our decision to buy or not to buy and live with the consequences.

gabbar says

He added that we could see the U.S. ultimately turn towards a model with lower total commissions, as is the case in Australia.

When I was in England, I noticed that there were no multiple listings. One would list with a preferred "Estate Agent" and only pay 1%. I thought that was a good system.

Eman says

The author is cursing in his article? So professional. If prices are dropping, they’re dropping. It’s a fact. Present the data to back up his thesis. No need to curse. This indicates the author is likely a renter, has missed his buying opportunity, and is simply outraged at Bay Area real estate prices.

The only reason I posted that link is because it was on survivalblog.com. Rawles (the owner of the blog) has been pretty good with advice. Of course, only time will tell. Hindsight is 20/20 btw.

GNL says

Eman says

The author is cursing in his article? So professional. If prices are dropping, they’re dropping. It’s a fact. Present the data to back up his thesis. No need to curse. This indicates the author is likely a renter, has missed his buying opportunity, and is simply outraged at Bay Area real estate prices.

The only reason I posted that link is because it was on survivalblog.com. Rawles (the owner of the blog) has been pretty good with advice. Of course, only time will tell. Hindsight is 20/20 btw.

@GNL,

From what you know about him, did he advise people to get out, or don’t buy in 2005-2007? Did he advise people to buy during the downturn?

The market peaked around late spring to early summer so the price decline numbers will only get worse in the coming months when compared YoY. Next year numbers is where it would get interesting. My guess is the decline would be smaller YoY. Then possibly bottom out in 2025. However, I’ve seen some big names called the bottom of the housing market around mid to later this year. Time will tell.

I don’t know if you’ve heard of Bruce Norris, but he called the top in 2006-2007 and told his investors to sell and get out. Some even sold their house, went and rented and bought back in 2010-2012 when Bruce called the bottom. Bruce also called the top last summer so it’s been 3 for 3 from what I know.

The reason I remember things vividly because I’ve always been in the market every year for the last plus decade. I bought and/or sold real estate every year. I remember buying a 10- and a 12-unit buildings in 2018 and I went all out with my cash. I told myself what am I doing buying at the top of the market here? While Bruce insisted the market still had more room to run.

I know what numbers Bruce monitors to call the top and bottom. He was right the peak was not in based on his set of parameters, but things seemed so frothy then. In hindsight, one building turned out to be a great deal, and one is a good deal. I already got 38% of my money back on one building and 72% on the other after 3 years of ownership. The formula works. Don’t doubt it. Just rinse and repeat.

Eman says

From what you know about him, did he advise people to get out, or don’t buy in 2005-2007? Did he advise people to buy during the downturn?

He's not a real estate expert but he did advise people to sell their excess properties early 2022. His other investment advice has been pretty good also.

What's your formula? Is the Fed going to continue to raise? When is the next meeting to decide?

GNL says

What's your formula? Is the Fed going to continue to raise? When is the next meeting to decide?

Fed will fail to control inflation at the current rate of interest. So, it will continue to raise interest to get a handle on inflation. 6% +. Corporations will continue to fire employees, firings will accelerate. IT collapse will continue. Insider sales of stocks continue, no insider is buying stocks. Election season is not too far. How much pain can the American consumer take?

Eric Holder says

clambo says

After a certain level of wealth, you can afford fancy hotels for every day of your life; why own a castle in addition to your beach house in Malibu?

This is what Musk realized (and acted upon).

Billionaire Weirdo Nicolas Berggruen reportedly sold his homes, keeping only his clothes and his jet, and now lives carefree in 5 star hotels.
If he negotiates the price it might only be a grand or two a night and is certainly much cheaper than owning large homes.
It might be how I would play it.

Robert Sproul says

Billionaire Weirdo Nicolas Berggruen reportedly sold his homes, keeping only his clothes and his jet, and now lives carefree in 5 star hotels.
If he negotiates the price it might only be a grand or two a night and is certainly much cheaper than owning large homes.
It might be how I would play it.

I'm pretty sure I would do this exact thing. Maybe one house in a dream location so I can entertain family and friends.

GNL says

What's your formula? Is the Fed going to continue to raise? When is the next meeting to decide?

The general consensus is that the Fed will do 2 more 0.25% hikes in Feb and Mar and that should be it before lowering rates later this year or next.

With respect to the formula, it’s like anything else in the business world, expected return on investment. If I can get my seed capital back in 5-7 years, it’s a go. The asset must be able to sustain itself with 20% vacancy.

If one gets lucky and the market carries, getting seed capital back in 2-3 years is possible. I know a lot of skeptics on Patnet. Iwog and I shared real life deals on here. Like anything in life, people will believe what they want to believe.

Billionaire Tod Spieker just bought/added a 224-unit apartment complex in Sunnyvale for $106M to his portfolio. He must know something the average Joe and Jane don’t. I’ve met Tod in person several times at JPM events for real estate investors. Really nice guy. He shared what he does for free too. He lives in Atherton. He has one rule though. Regardless how busy work is, he has to be home by 7pm and have dinner with his wife. John Sobrato, who owns like half of downtown Cupertino, also lives in Atherton. Nice guy too. 😂

His SIL is a commercial agent in my market. Nice guy too. I’ve done 5 deals with him.

https://www.siliconvalley.com/2023/01/23/sunnyvale-housing-home-apartment-real-estate-buy-develop-build-tech/

Eman says

GNL says

What's your formula? Is the Fed going to continue to raise? When is the next meeting to decide?

The general consensus is that the Fed will do 2 more 0.25% hikes in Feb and Mar and that should be it before lowering rates later this year or next.

With respect to the formula, it’s like anything else in the business world, expected return on investment. If I can get my seed capital back in 5-7 years, it’s a go. The asset must be able to sustain itself with 20% vacancy.

If one gets lucky and the market carries, getting seed capital back in 2-3 years is possible. I know a lot of skeptics on Patnet. Iwog and I shared real life deals on here. Like anything in life, people will believe what they want to believe.

Billionaire Tod Spieker just bought/added a 224-unit apartment complex in Sunnyvale for $106M to his portfolio. He must know something the aver...

do you buy now in this market? or its just that 20% vacancy rate formula as only criteria? ive been eyeing frw properties, but cap been very low.

do you just buy full cash, or seed 30% down relying on positive cash flow less mortgage?

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

Eman says

GNL says

What's your formula? Is the Fed going to continue to raise? When is the next meeting to decide?

The general consensus is that the Fed will do 2 more 0.25% hikes in Feb and Mar and that should be it before lowering rates later this year or next.

With respect to the formula, it’s like anything else in the business world, expected return on investment. If I can get my seed capital back in 5-7 years, it’s a go. The asset must be able to sustain itself with 20% vacancy.

If one gets lucky and the market carries, getting seed capital back in 2-3 years is possible. I know a lot of skeptics on Patnet. Iwog and I shared real life deals on here. Like anything in life, people will believe what they want to believe.

Billionaire Tod Spieker just bought/added a 224-...

I’m always a buyer or seller for the right price. With that said, I haven’t bought any apartment since last year as the numbers don’t pencil out. Sellers haven’t capitulated while interest rates are high. Now, I’m looking at adding new units on my oversized lots. If I can be all-in at $200k/unit, and it’s worth $275-$300k/unit, then it’s worth the efforts.

I budget $600/sqft for the building, engineering, permit costs, etc…. If I can get the cost down to $500/sqft. Voila. The reason it should cost less because I don’t have to pay for land.