patrick.net

zzyzzx says

Housing market enters 'deep freeze,' as half of all homes sell below list price

For every 1% increase in the 30 yr mortgage rate there is a 10% drop in price based on monthly home payment affordability. Prices need to drop at least 25%. I suspect the 30 year rate will stabilize around 5.5% in later half of this year.

For most, they are technically buying monthly payments of a mortgage, home insurance, property tax, and HOA fee, instead of buying a house.

zzyzzx says

On the bright side he doesn't have the horrible awful W-2. :D

ad says

For most, they are technically buying monthly payments of a mortgage, home insurance, property tax, and HOA fee, instead of buying a house.

Mighty similar to NNN "renting."

ad says

Housing market enters 'deep freeze,' as half of all homes sell below list price

Home prices in my City near Cleveland are still bizarre. That is in bloody Cleveland in fooking Ohio!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-16/canadian-home-prices-post-record-drop-as-high-rates-hit-buyers

Canada Home Prices See Record Drop as High Rates Hit Buyers

Canadian home prices fell by the most on record in 2022, as rapidly rising interest rates forced a market adjustment that may have further to go.

The country’s benchmark home price fell 1.6% in December to C$730,600, bringing the total decrease since February’s peak to 13.2%, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday.

The decline was the biggest peak-to-trough falloff since the group started compiling the data in 2005. Last year also saw the biggest price decline for a calendar year since records began, with a 7.5% drop overall.

With the economy in danger of entering a recession, and the Bank of Canada warning of more rate hikes to counter persistent inflation, the housing market may face continued pressure in the coming months.

A record number of buyers used floating-rate debt for purchases during Canada’s pandemic-era real estate boom, and those borrowers may come under increasing strain if mortgage costs remain high. Job losses from an economic slowdown also would make it harder for people to keep up with loan payments and stay in their homes.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict Canada will enter a recession in the first part of this year.

“As we look ahead to the crucial spring selling season, the all-important question is who will emerge from hibernation in greater force — buyers or sellers?” Douglas Porter, chief economist at the Bank of Montreal, said in a note to clients commenting on the new sales data. “We suspect that the market will still be digesting the rapid run-up in interest rates, and that buyers will be more reluctant to re-emerge, keeping prices under pressure for some time yet.”

Pulling Back

The housing slump so far has largely been driven by a pullback among buyers who’ve been priced out due to higher interest rates. The number of transactions in December was down 39% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis from last year, when the market was approaching its peak and before interest rates started rising.

Compared with November, the number of sales in December rose 1.3%, while new listings fell 6.4% as more prospective sellers opted to try and wait out the market weakness.

Part of that may be seasonal: Listings tend to slow during Canada’s winter months, then pick up again when the weather warms in the spring, traditionally the busiest time to sell.

So far, the decline in prices doesn’t seem to be enough to lure back many buyers because it’s been so outpaced by the rise in borrowing costs. From a record low 0.25% last March the Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark rate to 4.25% today, meaning prospective buyers looking for a 5-year mortgage now often face rates of about 6.5%.

Despite the past year’s decline, prices rose so fast during the pandemic buying frenzy that the national benchmark in December remained 33% higher than it was three years earlier. A report last month by Royal Bank of Canada showed that for the typical buyer dependent on a mortgage, housing affordability deteriorated to its worst level ever as mortgage rates rose with prices still elevated.

Phoenix market:

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/10ek6s3/the_average_mortgage_cost_reaches_45_of_household/

The average mortgage cost reaches 45% of household income, highest level in 40 years

https://slaynews.com/economy/moving-in-the-dead-of-winter-a-new-study-finds-its-the-best-time-for-bargains/

Date Event Price
1/7/2023 Listed for sale $750,000 (-8%) $469/sqft

6/17/2022 Sold $815,000 (+1.9%) $509/sqft

6/12/2022 Pending sale $799,950 $500/sqft

6/9/2022 Listed for sale $799,950 (+47.5%) $500/sqft

8/7/2019 Sold $542,500 (-1.4%) $339/sqft

7/27/2019 Pending sale $550,000 $344/sqft

7/17/2019 Price change $550,000 (-8.3%) $344/sqft

7/9/2019 Listed for sale $600,000 $375/sqft

https://www.zillow.com/homes/134-N-136th-Street,-Seattle,-WA-98133_rb/48835950_zpid/

12/12/2022 Listed for sale $799,000 (-7.1%) $372/sqft

5/7/2021 Sold $860,000 $401/sqft

https://www.zillow.com/homes/9741-57th-Avenue-S,-Seattle,-WA-98188_rb/49017110_zpid/

cisTits says

The 'Housing Experts' of Patnet this time last year insisted that this would not happen! And they vilified anyone who said differently (namely, me)

I want to see a drop of real estate industry cartel blood on the street. Sorry.

Patrick says

Until there's a spike in inventory that graph doesn't mean all that much. Existing home sales decrease if there are limited number of homes for sale. Inventory is still low. Factor in the massive rise in vacation rental homes as well that may not hit the market for decades again. Flippers have a hard time finding deals, so there's minimal activity there. The graph "looks" alarming but I'm not seeing a housing crash.

What's happing is that most don't need/want to trade homes now with the increased interest rates. So they don't sell. So less homes sell. You cannot have a price crash in housing without a massive inventory increase. It took 12+ months of inventory for prices to really drop in Chicagoland area in 2006. Start worrying if it hits 9 months. You'll get your crash when it hits 12 months. Otherwise it just stagnates, but might drop in less desirable areas.

Also all the homes purchased between the upper spikes are all low interest for the most part. Qualified, solid debt. I see no indication of a solvency issue without more job losses and a job is easier to find than oxygen at this point.

I think this is going to be a tech/stock bubble 2.0. Layoffs are happening in the tech sector at a relatively high rate. Billions are being wiped out in crypto seemingly daily. This feels more like the 2000-01 than 2006-09. And even then I don't see a huge correction coming and I'm usually pessimistic. I'm at the age though for the long haul so the next decade feels more like an opportunity to create wealth if things go to shit as we're in a position to pounce on opportunities. And we will IF it happens.

Back to housing. There has to be a graph of new construction that correlates to inventory. If new construction isn't outpacing existing inventory, you're not going to see a crash any time soon. Just sideways action depending on location.

WookieMan says

Patrick says

Until there's a spike in inventory that graph doesn't mean all that much. Existing home sales decrease if there are limited number of homes for sale. Inventory is still low. Factor in the massive rise in vacation rental homes as well that may not hit the market for decades again. Flippers have a hard time finding deals, so there's minimal activity there. The graph "looks" alarming but I'm not seeing a housing crash.

What's happing is that most don't need/want to trade homes now with the increased interest rates. So they don't sell. So less homes sell. You cannot have a price crash in housing without a massive inventory increase. It took 12+ months of inventory for prices to really drop in Chicagoland area in 2006. Start worrying if it hits 9 mon...

Agreed, besides stronger corrections in obvious shithole areas I have not seen any significant price declines, it's neither a buyer nor sellers market right now, it's in an equilibrium. Sure if you want tons of money for your overpriced shack you're out of luck now, but reasonable offers are finding buyers quickly.

My neighbor sold his 50 year old 1200 sq ft East SJ sh*tbox at last August peak market (for our neighborhood that lotsa you folks would call "ghetto", with "lousy schools").

The sales price on Zillow was 1.05 M. The property tax rate, with all the junk fees added on, is about 1.4%. So, $1200 per month to Tax Collector, Santa Clara County.

I knew the seller. After the sale but before he moved out he shared about it. (This was in August already when things began cooling down).

There was a Housing Collapse in Northern California in the early 1990's. He and his spouse bought the place then, I think around 1992. Based on the recent Zillow property tax history, I reckon they paid about $150K for it then.

His spouse recently retired from her job in a local government agency. His adult daughter moved to the Sierra foothills as she could not afford to live here in the Bay Area. So it was time for these lifelong San Joseans to leave to be near their daughter. It was never about getting the best price, it was about when it's time to leave. That said, he said the ®ealtor advised them to game the buyers a bit with the asking price, deliberately list a bit below what they thought they could get to launch a Bidding War.

They were a little late to that game, as there was no Bidding War. One offer was all-cash, but he was suspicious that the buyer was kind of sketchy. The seller and ®ealtor were instructed NOT to contact the buyers' spouse. While the spouse was not involved in the sale, the seller (my neighbor) thought it was a bit odd, so he didn't accept the offer. In spite of no Bidding War, the second offer came in offering a large sum OVER asking, actually setting a "New Zillow Valuation" for everyone on our block.

These folks are wise; they were in no hurry to "parachute" into buying a place right away in a new community they were not familiar with. They were going rent for a while and figure something out to transfer their Prop-13 assessment and get under the 500K capital gains tax.

What is my point? I've been all over the city in recent years, walked over 100 miles of streets in San Jose for my cardio workouts. Also driving once a week to make deliveries for a non-profit. The region is aging. Some aging folks will have adult kids who will take over to get the Prop-13 assessment. Many, I'd say most, of the transitions will be sales in situations like my neighbor, - not to get the "peak price" but because of life changes. The prices will come down to meet the abilitiy of buyers like my neighbor's daughter, to pay.

Snarksters can say whatever they want to "Prove Me Wrong", but I think most ®ealtors are more about getting the sale, than getting the peak price. They won't stand in the way of a price corrections.

mell says

Agreed, besides stronger corrections in obvious shithole areas I have not seen any significant price declines, it's neither a buyer nor sellers market right now, it's in an equilibrium. Sure if you want tons of money for your overpriced shack you're out of luck now, but reasonable offers are finding buyers quickly.

Until new construction outpaces inventory (if that makes sense) prices cannot crash. Here in IL in 2005 you'd buy 80 acres, build 200 cardboard box homes and sell them to people that didn't have the finances. That's not remotely where we're at from my observation. There's not even the skilled trades people to scale it back up to building at that pace.

The snarky comments about housing are annoying though (not you). I don't think a user here is bullish on housing short term 5 years or less. There's not a crash coming without job losses. There are a fuck ton of jobs you can get and buy a $300k home. The coastal areas will get hit the hardest because the prices are massively higher in SFBA than Iowa homes and wages aren't as different as people think. Anyone can make good money in the midwest that's similar to CA. People are waking up to this.

The Meta, Twitter and Alphabet layoffs won't move my housing market. On paper the national median will drop because those employees live in $1M homes and might not soon. So nationally it looks like housing is trending down, but that doesn't matter to me. Same with hipster areas. But your average American is just fine in normal places that they enjoy and are fine living in. Any housing crash will be an urban one. And I give no shits about it. People need to stop thinking about housing nationally and reading that bull shit.

WookieMan says

mell says

Agreed, besides stronger corrections in obvious shithole areas I have not seen any significant price declines, it's neither a buyer nor sellers market right now, it's in an equilibrium. Sure if you want tons of money for your overpriced shack you're out of luck now, but reasonable offers are finding buyers quickly.

Until new construction outpaces inventory (if that makes sense) prices cannot crash. Here in IL in 2005 you'd buy 80 acres, build 200 cardboard box homes and sell them to people that didn't have the finances. That's not remotely where we're at from my observation. There's not even the skilled trades people to scale it back up to building at that pace.

The snarky comments about housing are annoying though (not you). I don't think a user here is bullish on housing short term 5 years or less. There's not a crash coming without job losses. There are a...

Yeah builders are hardly building due to high prices of materials and services from inflation, they simply would have to charge too much for the completed units. Also many cities and counties fuck with builders by delaying permits and making them pay through the nose. They often need to pay private security as drugged hobos and sex trafficers use construction sites as their playground or simply steal everything, and the builder is responsible and gets served! As long as building is depressed, the value of existing homes will be retained. I don't see an oversupply of houses, condos or apartments anywhere on the horizon. Note that even if SF prices crater by 25%, they are still exorbitantly high and higher than what people purchased them for 10 years ago. Plus the constant flow of illegal aliens put a lot of pressure on the low to upper-mid end market.

My pal who works for DR Horton is currently building 150 homes in parallel right now in San Antonio. According to him a record high. I was at a BBQ at his house last night and he said, yes, there are still issues with the supply chain effing with them.

Apparently unlike all other builders DR hit the gas pedal when covid hit and never let off. He's pretty over worked.

He said he just drives around to each construction site waving his arms in the air saying, "Please build houses!"... For a few months in a row he was overseeing foundations being poured for 6-7 house per-day.

mell says

They often need to pay private security as drugged hobos and sex trafficers use construction sites as their playground

They call that a soup kitchen

cisTits says

WookieMan says

Back to housing. There has to be a graph of new construction that correlates to inventory. If new construction isn't outpacing existing inventory, you're not going to see a crash any time soon. Just sideways action depending on location.

No there doesn't. Are house prices falling or not?

Not remotely where I live. There are basically no homes for sale and prices are rising. Outside of its weather and scenery, this is why most of flyover country dislikes Californians. They think their world is the reality for the rest of the country. It's not. They then flee their reality and fuck up communities with their bull shit perceptions of how things should be run.

Going from 4%, which is what most people got a couple years back, to 7% isn't a big move on a $200k-300k home, which is most of the country. Sure in CA it is a big difference with interest rates at 7% on a $1M home. Here in IL though you're talking a $200-300/mo difference on the same priced home if that. Any crash will be in urban, high prices areas and hipster areas. Hence why I've been warning to get out of cities and yuppie suburbs.

You will get smashed in coastal markets likely over the next 2-5 years. But most are locked in at low interest rates and qualified loans. So it won't be a crash. Prices don't always go up. But they also don't go down often. The biggest concern is Boomers wanting to downsize with 32 year old kids that still live at home. Can the 32 year old buy what the Boomers built? The demographic shift is what scares me the most, not interest rates.

There are more younger people than old, but they don't want anything like what mom and dad built/bought. So the large homes are going to sit on the market. We're building a 2,400 sq. ft ranch. We could build substantially bigger. We don't want to. No one wants a 3,600 sq. ft. home anymore outside of diva wives and entitled beta males. And yes, I'm not everyone near my age, but the demographic shift into purchasing years for 25-35 year olds at current prices could be rough.

To answer the question, yes prices are falling in SFBA. We have users though from IL (me), Maryland, Florida, NY, Ohio, etc. I'm not an expert, the data is plain as can be though were I live. Prices are going up and they're inline with incomes. We'd need massive layoffs for prices to go down. I could get drunk and interview for 30 jobs and get them all here in IL. Prices are not dropping here outside of Chicago and urban centers.

WookieMan says

I could get drunk and interview for 30 jobs and get them all here in IL.

I doubt this applies to any job that could support a family.

GNL says

WookieMan says

I could get drunk and interview for 30 jobs and get them all here in IL.

I doubt this applies to any job that could support a family.

Here it can. I could make $50k a year myself driving a bus for the schools AND get a pension after I'm vested. The median FAMILY income is about $62k(ish) nationally. If my wife makes $50k as well, we're above average by a good margin. That's not our situation, but the jobs are there.

There's no excuse really. Now will that salary buy you a house in desirable coastal areas? No. But there are plenty of small communities where you might have to commute a little longer and have a $300k house. That's well within reach for that salary/pay assuming no massive debt on cars and shit.

zzyzzx says

That’s really not too bad considering the headwinds right now. Other states are faring much worse. My own zip code has gone up a couple percent since last year somehow. But probably down a few since six months ago.

WookieMan says

The median FAMILY income is about $62k(ish) nationally.

Nationally. What's the median where you are?

GNL says

WookieMan says

The median FAMILY income is about $62k(ish) nationally.

Nationally. What's the median where you are?

$62k for my county. I'd like to give the county, but I'd dox myself too much. It's northern IL, north of I-80. East of I-39.

If you assume the 3x's income idea that puts you at $186k. That's not how it works though. You can borrow PITI up to 40 something percent of income. Basically you can afford $2,100/mo in payments on the median household income by lending standards if you don't have other debt and a good credit score (rare). This is back of napkin math, but that gets you into the $300k range on that income with a FHA 3.5% down loan at 6.7% interest.

Housing is just going to stall in non-coastal areas. Some may/will rise still. Interest on $1.2M versus $250k is exponentially different. Coastal areas are going to see an equity loss or potential crash. Specifically in the SFBA because of all the recent layoffs. That's not a surprise. Local government is pure shit so that doesn't help.

I could walk into any business or government entity here in IL and have a $40-70k job if I walked in not wearing pants. We'll see. I'm in Fort Wayne, IN Thursday, Phoenix, AZ Friday to Tuesday and Bozeman, MT until I think Feb 5. So hitting different parts of the country for 10-11 days.

Mexico seemed to be in better spirits than the Dominican. Bahamas was fine and didn't see negative energy economically, but that's the islands of FL essentially. Not that one cannot get stats and info, but experience is a thing. I'm in IL and WI often as well. I'm not bullish on anything currently. But I'm not overly bearish. European War III breaking out is of concern and potential nukes, but I think we're in a tech sector crash again. That's more probable than a recession that moves housing in a large way.

There are also the crazies in charge of our financial system. Seems one of the clueless ones is retiring and decided to spout some wisdom. She didn't really want to have a 2% inflation target and didn't like the idea of QE,, but wants to sell the Fed's portfolio of mortgage securities soon. That would cause mortgage rates to go even higher causing even less homes to be built and decreasing the loan amount for new buyers to qualify for.

You should read the article to see how clueless the Fed members really are.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-needs-mortgage-backed-securities-183640854.html

... AND they are all like her.

Misc says

There are also the crazies in charge of our financial system. Seems one of the clueless ones is retiring and decided to spout some wisdom. She didn't really want to have a 2% inflation target and didn't like the idea of QE,, but wants to sell the Fed's portfolio of mortgage securities soon. That would cause mortgage rates to go even higher causing even less homes to be built and decreasing the loan amount for new buyers to qualify for.

You should read the article to see how clueless the Fed members really are.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-needs-mortgage-backed-securities-183640854.html

... AND they are all like her.

In your opinion, is there anything wrong with low interest rates?

GNL says

Misc says

There are also the crazies in charge of our financial system. Seems one of the clueless ones is retiring and decided to spout some wisdom. She didn't really want to have a 2% inflation target and didn't like the idea of QE,, but wants to sell the Fed's portfolio of mortgage securities soon. That would cause mortgage rates to go even higher causing even less homes to be built and decreasing the loan amount for new buyers to qualify for.

You should read the article to see how clueless the Fed members really are.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-needs-mortgage-backed-securities-183640854.html

... AND they are all like her.

In your opinion, is there anything wrong with low interest rates?

I'm not Misc, but low interest rates are bad because they pull too much future demand forward to the present day. I.e., people buy more now on credit than later, and later, they're too indebted to buy anything else so economic activity stalls.

Low interest rates discourage saving by negating the time value of money - no one has any incentive to defer gratification.

Finally, low interest rates promote speculation in the riskiest assets in pursuit of yield. When these risky assets crash, savings are destroyed instead of invested.

stereotomy says

GNL says

Misc says

There are also the crazies in charge of our financial system. Seems one of the clueless ones is retiring and decided to spout some wisdom. She didn't really want to have a 2% inflation target and didn't like the idea of QE,, but wants to sell the Fed's portfolio of mortgage securities soon. That would cause mortgage rates to go even higher causing even less homes to be built and decreasing the loan amount for new buyers to qualify for.

You should read the article to see how clueless the Fed members really are.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-needs-mortgage-backed-securities-183640854.html

... AND they are all like her.

In y...

I agree with you. Seems Misc and others do not.

Maybe a peak but around Santa Cruz it's still insane.

clambo says

Maybe a peak but around Santa Cruz it's still insane.

The question is: did it survive the recent string of storms or got washed down the mountain? And what the insurance premium is going to be next year?

PS. I know a couple who "won" a house on a piece of land in that general area and had to back out after getting insurance quotes for the place. And it was before the recent storms (but after the recent wildfires).

In Santa Cruz, mudslide and earthquake disastered specials are slightly marked down. "And here you can have your Jacuzzi! Until it winds up down there. You can immerse your self in if it the fires get close (there were actually people who survived the Oakland Hills fire early 90's by jumping into swimming pools)".