patrick.net

https://www.reddit.com/r/DaveRamsey/comments/1469e0t/getting_majorly_impacted_by_return_to_the_office/

Getting majorly impacted by return to the office

Yuma housing market is well past peak. Checking around today, I see a number of rentals that have dropped prices in the past few weeks. In fact, one who was only trying to collect $100 more than last year has lowered his rent to $100 less than what he got in 2022. In an extreme example, a guy from Somerton was trying to sell his house since last year. After starting over $300k, he eventually settled around $284k before pulling the listing and attempting to rent instead. After not finding a renter for 45 days, he's dropped his rent as well. In another example, a pretty nice looking property that started WAY above market($2,800), has now dropped to $2,400 and still without a renter.

Market declines happen first in the most over-priced, or furthest out regions, eventually working their way through the entire market. You may want to locking your tenants in now before prices start dropping next year in your area, and they move elsewhere.

NuttBoxer says

Market declines happen first in the most over-priced, or furthest out regions, eventually working their way through the entire market. You may want to locking your tenants in now before prices start dropping next year in your area, and they move elsewhere.

Over priced is the key here. We have two gas stations, one in a neighboring town that do Uhaul rentals. They're piling up. Meaning people are moving my way. There are zero homes that I could find for rent in my town on any website. Zilch. 820 homes/units.

I'm gonna pull the former Realtor card. It's location. I never look at rentals and was honestly shocked just now that there's literally nothing I can find in my town. I drive/walk all the blocks and know damn near everyone. There's nothing. No for rent signs outside of the commercial downtown area. There's only 2 active listings for sale. Normal market here is 7-10 roughly active. They're building new homes finally.

That's why my view is probably jaded to some of you. I'm not witnessing at all what some of you guys are. Our exodus happened. My area is seeing an influx, which blows my mind for IL. I think it's city folks leaving and even suburban. I drove through areas this morning I haven't been to in 10 years. They're shit holes. I'd never raise my kids there. These are suburbs too, not Chicago. Life sucks in urban environments. Humans aren't supposed to live on top of each other.

NuttBoxer says

Yuma housing market is well past peak.

Will this be a factor there also ? See below article.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/01/us/arizona-phoenix-groundwater-limits-development-climate/index.html

I guess they'll not cave into the developers like Bay County, FL does to St Joe.

But if water prices go up, then that will put strain on housing prices just like increasing property insurance and HOA fees do.

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Bitcoiner says

Interesting. What are the best areas to live in Yuma? What is the Scottsdale of Yuma. Is it somerton?
Median household incomes seem a bit low in Yuma. Are there good employers out there providing high paying jobs?

Still not familiar enough to say for sure, but Foothills is the newer area of town, although Old Yuma(as locals seem to call it) has some nice housing developments as well. Really no idea on Somerton.

Yes, large percentage of the population is migratory, and only works during the winter. Creates misleading unemployment numbers, and possibly lower than normal income numbers. But my wife has been following some groups, and I think income is fairly spot on. A lot of people in Yuma do seem to struggle, although that's becoming more common everywhere.

Biggest employers are military, farms, government. Yuma is right next to the Colorado, so I would think water isn't a huge issue, although Phoenix also has some large rivers that flow right through town. I will tell you if looking at an overhead satellite view it's VERY common to see nothing but sand. Housing seems to have outpaced satellite photos by quite a bit. But given how remote it is, lack of local jobs, and summer temps, I don't see over-crowding ever being a problem.

Also, majority of landscaping consists of desert plants, sand and rocks. People like us who want grass for our kids are a strange breed.

Pretium Partners is the 2nd largest owner of single family owners (Invitation Homes is first).

Pretium recently bought 4000 homes (some unfinished) from D R Horton.

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/pretium-partners-to-acquire-4000-d-r-horton-rental-homes-in-1-5b-deal/

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Bitcoiner says

Nuttboxer, thanks. Never been to Yuma. Planning any trips to cross the border or not really a reason to do that? Btw., are you working remote or did you find a new job in Yuma?

Meaning Mexico? Certainly we'll travel down there at some point, mainly to see if any of the stuff my wife goes to Tijuana for we can do over there.

I've been remote Since 2020. Current company is East Coast, so have to wake up a bit early sometimes, but I've been assured by my boss I will never be asked to travel to corporate.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bosses-fed-remote-4-main-193500794.html

Bosses are fed up with remote work for 4 main reasons

Software Testing

Another great example of the greed an insanity that gripped housing in this current bubble. House in Julian Borrego Springs listed for over $600k a year ago. Finally sold a year later for nearly $150k UNDER original asking price. Now listed for rent for $3,900. Still vacant. No one from here would ever pay that much to live in Julian...

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1831-Hunter-Dr-Borrego-Springs-CA-92004/16645537_zpid/

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-market-detached-fundamentals-leading-122712553.html

The housing market is so detached from fundamentals that a leading research firm predicts the pause in home price declines is about to ‘prove temporary’

NuttBoxer says

Another great example of the greed an insanity that gripped housing in this current bubble. House in Julian listed for over $600k a year ago. Finally sold a year later for nearly $150k UNDER original asking price. Now listed for rent for $3,900. Still vacant. No one from here would ever pay that much to live in Julian...

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1831-Hunter-Dr-Borrego-Springs-CA-92004/16645537_zpid/

That's not even Julian - it's almost Salton City, lol.

Inventory

Will

Be

Constrained

Forever

GNL says

Forever

So you are saying that the supply of housing for long term rentals and sales is not going to keep up with demand ?

Why ? Because too much speculation and people converting them to Air BnB vacation/short term rentals ? Because of zoning laws like in California ?

You need to come to Florida panhandle like Bay County and Panama City Beach. Any patch of soil or vegetation is getting converted to concrete and asphalt.

.

ad says

So you are saying that the supply of housing for long term rentals and sales is not going to keep up with demand ?

Why ? Because too much speculation and people converting them to Air BnB vacation/short term rentals ? Because of zoning laws like in California ?

You need to come to Florida panhandle like Bay County and Panama City Beach. Any patch of soil or vegetation is getting converted to concrete and asphalt.

We lost a generation of tradesmen from the housing bust. Talk to any electrician or plumber. They could work for 90 hours and not keep up OR hire enough people to deal with demand. We slammed on the brakes during the housing bust in almost every market building. Investors came in and sucked the inventory up and rented it out. Building stopped so no new young men entered the housing construction/trades.

Might be a touch different locally, but this was one of the few times it went national. We don't have people that can do framing, concrete, electric and plumbing. No one knows how to do it outside of a select few. Where building is happening they move to that area and there's nothing in areas where there's no building. It will take another decade and maybe two for it to level out in most areas.

ad says

GNL says

Forever

So you are saying that the supply of housing for long term rentals and sales is not going to keep up with demand ?

Why ? Because too much speculation and people converting them to Air BnB vacation/short term rentals ? Because of zoning laws like in California ?

You need to come to Florida panhandle like Bay County and Panama City Beach. Any patch of soil or vegetation is getting converted to concrete and asphalt.

.

All of those reasons and more. The best bet is to hope Deagal is correct. Also that the jabs are fatal and people start dying in the 10's of millions.

Eric Holder says

That's not even Julian - it's almost Salton City, lol.

Apologies, yeah, that's out in the desert east of Julian. Fixed.

WookieMan says

Building stopped so no new young men entered the housing construction/trades.

that is what i was relaying to Senor Headset as far as the USA becoming more third world, as in lazy and incompetent

that means very high price inflation to provide the quality of life that we took for granted

we continuously lose capacity and capability to provide goods and services... it just drives up the prices as supply dwindles relative to demand...

or we just lower our expectations and our standard of living degrades or goes downhill also because its too expensive to try to maintain the same quality of life

.

Nothing a few million more illegals can't cure.

Misc says

Nothing a few million more illegals can't cure.

that is not a reasonable solution for an existing working age labor force of citizens who are lazy and/or dumb

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Bitcoiner says

Who is deagal and what is he saying?
Also, you hope for people to die for inventory to rise?!

From Rumble: "Deagel Corporation issue a forecast for the American population of 2025 back in 2014. It held such a drastic reduction, along with other western countries, that it was shocking to the many who saw it. We'll take a look and see how the numbers are adding up, along with and update on deaths that certainly appear to be from the COVID shots, as well as a warning against the 5G rollout which appears to be a kill switch."

If people die off, then that means less demand for housing. Also, the homes they live in either go for sale or are rented, so as to increase supply.

It creates a demographics bomb, as then there is a glut of residential real estate.

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Bitcoiner says

Reminds me of those nut jobs that predict the end of the world by a certain date.

If someone’s hope is based on this deagal….for buying a house at a discount due to skyrocketing inventory (because millions of Americans die)….than I’d say this screams desperation and is probably too pathetic to discuss further.

Yeah, I don't see how this is even possible. IF it were to happen, last thing anyone should be worried about is housing. Not that prices wouldn't drop, but you could just go squat in vacant homes and not worry about buying them. Losing 200 million people means there's be no enforcement of anything. There wouldn't be judges, attorneys and a mortgage servicer to follow through with foreclosure. 70% of them would be dead...

Doomsday stuff is kind of stupid. The vaccine was dumb, but I highly doubt that many people are dropping from it. 2019 was the last time I attended a funeral and that was for my dad who was 70. Not young, but old enough for death. We know a lot of people. My wife is in an industry where decision makers are 50 plus. Maybe 1 dies a year. We're talking 1,000+ people she knows or knows of across the country.

Inventory, interest rates (double digits), building and employment are the only things possibly bringing prices down dramatically. The first doesn't change until the last three go parabolic for a crash to happen. You can get a job doing anything now that pays well above minimum wage. Some will give bonuses for signing on. We'll see what they do with interest rates. And building en mass is not happing because there are no qualified tradesmen.

The only other X factor is taxes. If Dems were to get Congress and POTUS in 2024 they WILL raise taxes. Republicans need to unify yesterday and just admit Trump is the guy. And if you don't like him, get Desantis on board as VP to groom him (bad term... lol) for 2028. He's a backstop if Trump gets impeached and actually removed from office AND he could still get 2 terms if he had to take over. Infighting over 2024 is the worst possible move for Republicans.

WookieMan says

We don't have people that can do framing, concrete, electric and plumbing. No one knows how to do it outside of a select few. Where building is happening they move to that area and there's nothing in areas where there's no building. It will take another decade and maybe two for it to level out in most areas.

How does one learn electric and plumbing or even framing and concrete? These are not simple skills

gabbar says

WookieMan says

We don't have people that can do framing, concrete, electric and plumbing. No one knows how to do it outside of a select few. Where building is happening they move to that area and there's nothing in areas where there's no building. It will take another decade and maybe two for it to level out in most areas.

How does one learn electric and plumbing or even framing and concrete? These are not simple skills

Trade schools and unions. Shadow a small business owner that works in trades that needs help. They generally do. Problem today is that no one has work ethic and too many distractions.

I talk a lot about my wife's work, but her crews are young men. It's mild physical labor in road contruction. They can make $90k/yr WITH 3-4 months off and do plowing or other cash side gigs. A few employees stick but they churn through 4-5 annually that can't handle it. There's about 20 at her shop.

We're talking sitting in a truck and the most labor intensive part is standing with a stop/slow paddle or putting down cones. Basically you stand for 8-10 hours. It's mindless. No education needed outside of a quick training on the equipment and maybe a CDL if you don't want to do the physical part.

Electric is actually really easy if you have the equipment. There's not much to it for residential. Same with plumbing. Tools have become so advanced that you can plumb a house quickly as far as sweating pipes. Framing is going off site now a days. We just had a house in my small town framed and roofed (not shingles) in 2 days. They just brought panels in and put them together like a puzzle. They were from concrete pour to framed house in 10 days.

The ability to build is there, but I forgot the fact builders are risk averse. Most are boomers and pre-boomers that run the show. They don't want to over build. Around me at least it's one off builds. No more subdivisions built with anticipation for demand.

WookieMan says

No more subdivisions built with anticipation for demand.

That's because you are in Illinois.

zzyzzx says

WookieMan says

No more subdivisions built with anticipation for demand.

That's because you are in Illinois.

I travel the country. Besides the Northeast coastal area, because that's a shit hole. Only states I've witnessed building is TX, FL, TN, AZ, ID, MT, UT and CO (though I think CO is slowing). Tradesmen go where the money is. I've been in all these state in the last 3-4 years. I'm talking residential as well. Not for CRE or regular commercial.

I have not been to CA since 2018ish. Will be this fall. SoCal, but will be interested to see what's changed since our previous visits. I really have no interest in visiting the Bay area out there or any of Central CA besides Yosemite to check that NP box. Northern CA is fine. Beautiful.

Bitcoiner says

If someone’s hope is based on this deagal….for buying a house at a discount due to skyrocketing inventory (because millions of Americans die)….than I’d say this screams desperation and is probably too pathetic to discuss further.

My prediction was inventory will remain constrained forever UNLESS Deagal and/or the jab theorists are correct. I believe it's baked into the cake via government and their desires/actions.

Bitcoiner says

Eman
I want to take the risk and try the BRRRR method.

Any tips and advice you have for finding below market deals/fixer uppers besides finding the crappiest house in a good neighborhood?

Do you usually walk the property with a contractor to estimate the rehab costs?

From your experience, after the rehab…… the property appraises for more than the purchase price + rehab cost? …. in order to pull the cash back out during the refi?

@Bitcoiner,

Real estate is a relationship business. The veterans call it belly to belly biz so they’re anti app this and technology that.

So many ways to find deals. An investor friend takes different routes whenever he drives around. He’s looking for rundown and abandoned properties. He would take down the address, look it up and send the owner a letter stating he’s interested in buying the property.

For us, we sell ourselves to all listing agents/brokers in our market. We would ask them out for lunch and have a chat. We share our investment criteria, location, etc… Share with them why they should work with you. Then follow up, follow up and follow up. Always stay in front of them. Don’t be out of sight and out of mind.

Out of 10 agents, you’d be looking at 40-50 deals a year in your market. You’d be lucky to get 1-2 deals per year while you’d be having lunch with them at least a couple times a year each. Once you have an established closing track record, then deals will come to you regularly. Whoever sold you the deal, that agent owns the listing for life unless they’re retired like one of the agents in our market today.

@EBGuy,

Just closed this flip today for $1.3M. Added about 250sq to it. We received 3 offers with this one being the cleanest. We could squeeze a little more with doing multiple counteroffers, but it’s good enough for me to close and move on.

https://redf.in/Bdc4iU

Here’s another one in the area for anyone who is up to the challenge. Don’t blame it on the flippers. We help to beautify the neighborhood one home at a time while putting food on the table for our family and the subcontractors’.

https://redf.in/TjtInP

"BUZZARDS CIRCLING OVERHEAD? Yesterday I read an article about commercial real estate in San Francisco The two biggest hotels just went into foreclosure, i.e., the owners stopped paying the loans and dropped them back in the lenders’ laps. Another 20 hotels are lined up to do the same (crime, human feces, and homeless folks filling the sidewalks do NOT attract tourists.) Also, 30% of the commercial office space is vacant, and owners are also letting office buildings go in foreclosure. Here are the circling buzzards: y’all remember Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)? When the residential real estate market blew up, Mortgage-Backed Securities and the derivatives hedging their interest rates exploded like Mount Krakatoa and launched the 2008 financial crisis. Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities are the same animal, only commercial rather than residential. May be no more than a feather in the wind, but then, too, that might be a buzzard feather."

- F Sanders

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bosses-fed-remote-4-main-193500794.html

Bosses are fed up with remote work for 4 main reasons

I disagree with a lot in this article from personal experience. Perhaps there's truth for kids fresh out of college, but not for productive, experienced workers. I suppose it depends on the person as well.

I think where remote work falls down is in a hybrid scenario because people use their "off days" to slack off. If you're held accountable to get work done, the slackers will eventually be caught.

Bitcoiner says

Who is deagal and what is he saying?
Also, you hope for people to die for inventory to rise?!

@GND and @ad - I follow all the conspiracy bullshit, 95% which I know is bullshit. Deagel is bullshit.

I can find this original source only because I posted it before:

https://web.archive.org/web/20200828083314/https://www.deagel.com/country/United%20States%20of%20America
(may take a while to load from the Internet archive)

Basically it predicted a PRECIPITOUS decline in the US population by 2025 to be only around 100 million. That's about a 2/3rd decline.

Deagel is just a bullshit site. It bills itself as an "intelligence site", but it's not. If you go through earlier predictions (and later predictions) it's readily apparent it's just some nut posting bullshit, or it's a psy-op by our government intelligence agencies. I don't mind nuts, but if it's psy-ops, we're paying for it.

It's nonsense.

I follow propaganda, and it's not only government sourced. This was all over the net for a while, and I smelled bullshit, once I dug into it, it was pure manure. This is their CURRENT link outside of archive.org:

https://www.deagel.com/country/United%20States%20of%20America

You can see how much they modified it and see it's absent of any "forecast".

I've tried to trace the owner of the site, nobody knows who it is, it was widely referenced years ago, it's impossible to confirm, that tells me it's bullshit, and probably intelligence. It's somebody that won't stand behind their work, that generally means asshole intelligence psy-op agent. You don't know what dickheads they are. Their only job is to cause panic.

porkchopexpress says

I think where remote work falls down is in a hybrid scenario because people use their "off days" to slack off. If you're held accountable to get work done, the slackers will eventually be caught.

I would usually work 5-6 hours remotely with the brokerage and then 3-4 hours on the weekend. Kind of had to in real estate, so it burned me out after 15 years. When you're on vacation and have to still work it sucks. I got "vacation" time but there was never a true vacation in real estate. I was on the clock 24/7 basically. I was on my phone all the time. I have no clue how call center people live that life. It's a job I guess.

That's why I now work flexible or fixed time jobs so I don't have to work during off hours or take work home with me or deal with customers. Just bosses/managers and even then rarely. Kind of if the work gets done you're golden.

Interesting statistics. Years ago, I read a book where it had 74% of people became millionaires through real estate.

Secondly, the 70% rule for flippers. I use 55% rule. Others are aggressive. 😅

Eman says

Secondly, the 70% rule for flippers. I use 55% rule. Others are aggressive.

In other words be extremely obnoxious and try to exploit and Jew them down more on the price, assuming there is no illegal behavior like sabotage property to get a lower price or engaging in collusion or antitrust ??????

ad says

Eman says

Secondly, the 70% rule for flippers. I use 55% rule. Others are aggressive.

In other words be extremely obnoxious and try to exploit and Jew them down more on the price, assuming there is no illegal behavior like sabotage property to get a lower price or engaging in collusion or antitrust ??????

@ad,

https://redf.in/TjtInP

It’s on the market for everyone to buy. If I’m going to pay $500-$600k for it, I have to be able to resell it for $950-$1.1M. Don’t have to be obnoxious. Don’t have to chew anyone. Don’t have to sabatoge anything, or do anything illegal. Why such negative thoughts?

If someone is willing to pay more than that, it’s theirs.