patrick.net

@Eman
Good points...I believe NYC, Chicago and Detroit will want a word with you eventually.

Remote work is here to stay. I have friends pushing a Costa Rica WeWork commune village.

1337irr says

Eman
Good points...I believe NYC, Chicago and Detroit will want a word with you eventually.

Remote work is here to stay. I have friends pushing a Costa Rica WeWork commune village.

I'm pretty sure any company that moves to Puerto Rico does not have to pay taxes. Special program.

GNL says

1337irr says

Eman
Good points...I believe NYC, Chicago and Detroit will want a word with you eventually.

Remote work is here to stay. I have friends pushing a Costa Rica WeWork commune village.

I'm pretty sure any company that moves to Puerto Rico does not have to pay taxes. Special program.

My biz partner told me this once. Something along the line “if we moved to Puerto Rico and lived there for 6 months, we wouldn’t have to pay capital gains.”

Home is where our family is so we’re not moving anywhere anytime. Once the time is right, I’ll look into it. Talking about another loophole in our tax code, which was designed by…… and for………?

Rubicon says

And the funniest thing is, even if you would have bought at the worst possible time (peak of 2006) you would be totally fine today. Those prices in 2006 are dirt cheap compared to today’s prices.

1. Hardly anyone stays in their home that long anymore.
2. You're timing the market with your statement BUT with the benefit of hindsight.
3. Both 06 and covid were unknowable events and how they would play out. Well, most "financial" people should have known 06 would happen. Peter Schiff was screaming from the hilltops.
4. I still say inventory is the metric to watch. These high rates have not destroyed equity anywhere near where I would have thought they would. However, the fat lady hasn't sung yet.

I said your timing because you aren't counting whether a person had to sell during the 06 crash. Plenty of people were fucked.

Look, there's no question about it, RE has been phenomenal since 2010 or so. But these last 3 years are aberrations. RE is now a manipulated market. I'm sure of it.

I try to think big picture and believe this is bad for the country. Have incomes gone up as much as RE over the last 10 or so years?

I use to think RE had to crash but then we started having massive inflation. Unless we go into a depression or some other economic calamity I don't really see a crash and if those things happen we have more to worry about than a housing bubble. Our markets are 100% being manipulated across the board not just housing, hell our whole society is being massively manipulated at this point.

Eman says

Good luck with waiting. I hope the patience will payoff.

We never just wait though. We're always investing in something, just need to ensure it makes sense in the current market.

Rubicon says

It’s total fantasy. And nobody treats houses like a stock. Most people just enjoy living in their house and have no interest in selling to go back to renting.

You do. If you view something as an investment, not a place to live, that's the same as stock, or any other investment. The rest is your fantasy. Many of us have been much more successful by renting. Don't portray your narrow viewpoint as fact.

Rubicon says

Fast forward to today and I gained 500k in equity in just that house.

Prove it, sell the house for $500k more. You do understand the difference between potential, and realized gains right. Might be that greed clouding your logic again though.

Rubicon says

even if you would have bought at the worst possible time (peak of 2006) you would be totally fine today.

Sounds an awful lot like ever RE I've ever heard, "It's NEVER a bad time to buy!". You are heavily influenced by central banking propaganda, readily embracing the shackles of debt slavery. You have no understanding of history or holistic economics, and you revel in it.

I have no problem admitting situations I would buy in, you never admit there is a situation where renting makes sense. Your views are fanatical, and I have no time for fanatics.

Rubicon says

It’s total fantasy. And nobody treats houses like a stock.

Be careful, someone may think you don't know what you're talking about.
I am a virtual tour company owner. I can point to many Realtors whose entire efforts are aimed at getting people to "invest" in RE. Yes, that is like uh investing. I know 1 Realtor group who turns everything into Airbnb advice. In fact their whole retirement plan is to live off of their Airbnbs. I know another Realtor group (extremely successful in the DMV (that's DC, Maryland and Virginia) that pushes nothing but how to profit from RE. In fact he is constantly on Instagram driving around in his Ferrari and/or Range Rover pointing out the best areas to invest in. Be careful not to lean too far out over your skis when talking about RE.

How about all of those flip this house shows? Is that investing in RE?
How about this article found just now on Yahoo...https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/real-estate-agents-buy-property-145842517.html

Rubicon says

Huh? Of course RE is an investment. Nobody has questioned that. For many it’s the biggest investment they’ll ever make! Most of my wealth is invested in RE. What’s your point?

You said no one treats houses like stocks.

GNL says

How about all of those flip this house shows? Is that investing in RE?
How about this article found just now on Yahoo...https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/real-estate-agents-buy-property-145842517.html

“Flip This House” show does it for publicity and to raise money for more flips. Flipping real estate is a job, a very well paying job, if one is good at it. It would be investing if you’re an equity partner.

Check out this gal in my market. She’s quite successful at it and makes 7 figures e year vs. works for the man and makes six figures.

https://youtube.com/@TransformRealEstate

The article you linked has good contents, just lack of depth. The investors in the article shared good advice about those markets and made a good case for them: 1) population growth, 2) economic prosperity, 3) favorable policies and 4) affordable. The fact that they’re affordable, “This allows for tremendous appreciation for property owners with the right investments.” This advice should be heeded. Buyers beware and should do their own due diligence.

Rubicon says

GNL says

Rubicon says

Huh? Of course RE is an investment. Nobody has questioned that. For many it’s the biggest investment they’ll ever make! Most of my wealth is invested in RE. What’s your point?

You said no one treats houses like stocks.

Exactly.

Have you ever met someone who said: market is pretty high right now. I am going to sell my house! Live in a car or a rental and then buy back in a year when the market is down 30%.

It takes conviction to do that. I actually know someone who did it during the last housing bubble successful. She listened to Bruce Norris and actually pulled the trigger. Her name is Geraldine Barry, former president of SJREI. However, Bruce doesn’t expect a crash this time around so don’t do it.

Everyone is different. NuttBoxer believes in his “housing crash” thesis so let him be. I don’t know about other markets, but it makes no sense to be a home buyer, in most cases, in the Bay Area at the moment. The own vs. rent disparity is massive.

Rubicon says

Have you ever met someone who said: market is pretty high right now. I am going to sell my house! Live in a car or a rental and then buy back in a year when the market is down 30%.

Yes and no. No, I haven't heard anyone say they were going to go live in a car for God's sake. That is a ridiculous question and you know it. Come on, be an honest debater will you? Yes, there are people I know that have sold in order to buy back in. Yes, their personal residence. No, they did not have kids are other factors that would cause too much discomfort. Are you telling me that people don't sell into a high and then put their $$ some place else that they believe will bring greater profits? Is everyone doing these types of things? Of course not but I do know several RE investors that are selling right now. Maybe not all of their RE but certainly some of it.

@Nuttboxer is right, you only look at it one way.

@Eman, of course flipping is a job and has made many people tons of $$. I see it every day. Whole neighborhoods being knocked down one house at a time and replaced with McMansions because those old lots are the only ones left big enough to build close enough to town/city/work. I know of homeowners who have lived in 900 square foot shit boxes for the last 30 years but add on or "pop the top" just before selling because they have been lowballed forever by the builders and the only way they see to get top dollar is to make the home unprofitable for the builders to knock down.

@Eman, btw, I'd love to hear your number crunching strategy on when, where and how to buy RE.

GNL says

Eman, btw, I'd love to hear your number crunching strategy on when, where and how to buy RE.

I believe I’ve shared my number crunching on here a few times. It’s not rocket science. Anyone can do it on a piece of paper at anywhere, any place. With enough practice, one can eyeball the deal from miles away before even needing to crunch any numbers.

We only buy in one zip code (95112), which is our farm. We have the scale and a full time handyman to make our lives easier.

I have ventured out a little, within driving distance of course, because the deals were good. Otherwise, not worth the efforts. We only have a finite amount of time on this earth. I’m trying to be wiser with it.

Eman says

I believe I’ve shared my number crunching on here a few times.

Yes, I believe you have. I'll look for it.

Rubicon says

“ Yes, there are people I know that have sold in order to buy back in. ”

Market timers? Yeah, and how did that work out for them?

Sure, you can always find someone who makes a bad choice (like nutty). Believe it or not I know someone who knows a lesbian who got her vagina removed and replaced with something that was supposed to be a penis.

On the same token, we have some really smart people on this site like “justme” who was holding out on buying since the housing crash. Not sure if he bought something eventually.

BMWman took the tough pill and bought a SFH in Santa Clara for $850k around 2015. I thought it was high at the same, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s worth $1.5-$1.7M now.

Iwog, SFace and I got lucky we bought at the bottom of the housing crash. They stopped buying around 2012-2013 while I kept buying.

A retiree, who is also a real estate investor, told me his neighbor sold his house in 1989 due to the top of the housing market and the collapse of the national debt coming. He was priced out after that and ended up moving out of state.

At the end of the day, we all make our bets and live with the consequences. Everyone’s risk tolerance is different, and everyone has different comfort level when it comes to renting vs. buying. Let them be.

For the record, I didn't say you guys haven't been successful. Or that RE isn't a wealth creation vehicle. Of course it is. The problem is that people say there is no risk. Of course there is.

Rubicon says

It’s about calculated risk.

Yeah, loved reading the Calculated Risk Blog with Doris "Tanta" Dungey providing much needed insight (and relief) among the sea of real estate sales industry clowns and fools.

And Patrick came on scene around when I was following Calculated Risk Blog with his 20/20 appearance an his very valuable book.

The Wolfman offers a lot of similar perspective and insight also in his Wolf Street website.

,

Rubicon says

Exactly.

Have you ever met someone who said: market is pretty high right now. I am going to sell my house! Live in a car or a rental and then buy back in a year when the market is down 30%.

I remember Alan Greenspan testifying for Congress and making similar reference to this as far as housing being comparable to stocks.

,

You should own your primary home if you're at least handy enough to take care of the basics. You'll likely live there 7-10 years. It will almost certainly appreciate. Those are tax free gains on a primary home. That's a big deal if you earn a decent income. If you bought a $400k home and it now $500k you get $100k and no payment to the government or state.

Renting has it's place. But it make little sense in the long term as generally no one is disciplined enough to invest the difference if renting is cheaper. Flexibility is nice, but so is the flexibility of the landlord to sell the place at any time. Been there, done that. Won't do it again unless it's a snowbird type of thing in the Caribbean during retirement years for 4-6 months.

@Rubicon

A lot of predictions would have been proven correct if not for government intervention. This opens a whole new type of conversation...moral hazard.

Rubicon says

wolfstreet is a great place to find them.

Wolfe said the banks do not create money. Ugh. He also censors truthful comments like “the not based upon science lockdowns” negative affects on the economy. Yes, one of his readers actually acused me of making a racist comment based upon my use of slang in my comment.

@Rubicon and @Eman

How did the rent moratorium effect your RE?

Btw, I'm quite familiar with the wealth building possibilities of RE, my daughter married into a family whose grandfather built quite an RE empire here in the DC area. I'd bet they own close to a billion $$ in RE. My son inlaw is a trust funder. They live very well.

@GNL,

No impact on us fortunately. Some people are not as fortunate.

Wolf Ritchter is a perma-bear, same as Zerohedge. They only peddle negative news. I’ve read their stuff over the years. No thanks.

Yes, perma bear is no Bueno.

Neither is perma bull except that the government backstops many things which enhances economic bubalicousness.

She could try the most effective way of selling a house, or anything for that matter

......lower the price

Link:
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/1295-N-Cedar-Blvd-Unit-6_Cedar-City_UT_84721_M27748-17449

zzyzzx says

She could try the most effective way of selling a house, or anything for that matter

......lower the price

Didn't you pay attention, it's the interest rates!

I wonder what made these people leverage themselves so irresponsibly. I mean we certainly don't have anyone on patnet who would propose such reckless actions, or do we..?

SHORT SALE! Trending for the win!

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=short+sale&hl=en

It's not really up over the past year, or the past five years, save a spike during the Scamdemic.

zzyzzx says

She could try the most effective way of selling a house, or anything for that matter

......lower the price

Link:
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/1295-N-Cedar-Blvd-Unit-6_Cedar-City_UT_84721_M27748-17449

From a real estate investor perspective, the house is dated and looks filthy. If the owner doesn’t bother to get the house up to snuff to sell, what else does she neglect?

Not sure when she bought it, but looking at the price history, this townhouse has tripled in value since the bottom of the housing crash. Fair market rent is $1,685/month per Zillow. Real estate in this part of the woods is cheap. This means the demand is likely low. Talking about a bunch of bad combination.

Rents are cooling in some markets.

1337irr says

SHORT SALE! Trending for the win!

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=short+sale&hl=en

,



.

ad says

1337irr says

SHORT SALE! Trending for the win!

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=short+sale&hl=en

,



.

Banks won't mess around this time if it gets bad. I don't think it will housing wise. Forbearance would probably be the better search word. Banks learned they're not in the landlord/maintenance business last time and they suck balls at it. They want a payment, not property management. Any housing crash will be hidden. And price drops are likely in cities and they'll generally be minimal, mostly.

Major metro areas are for sure going to see problems though. The idea of going to an office, commuting and then picking around with other people at work is LESS productive than sitting in your underwear and actually getting the job done in 5 hours. Managers need to manage though. So they're going to insist on getting back to work at the office. Covid changed the whole dynamic of the work environment. I think for the better so people don't have to live in shit holes that are "close" to work.

WookieMan says

Banks won't mess around this time if it gets bad

All based on supply and demand, and also interest rates (even after buying down the maximum of 1% by buying 4% in discount points).

Ultimately a lot of purchases are driven by housing cost affordability standards such as no more than 35% of household income.

But I think a lot of homes are not underwater if prices drop 15%. And remember also there are no shit loans or subprime loans, as well as 2 or 3 year ARMs.

.

ad says

WookieMan says

Banks won't mess around this time if it gets bad

All based on supply and demand, and also interest rates (even after buying down the maximum of 1% by buying 4% in discount points).

Ultimately a lot of purchases are driven by housing cost affordability standards such as no more than 35% of household income.

But I think a lot of homes are not underwater if prices drop 15%. And remember also there are no shit loans or subprime loans, as well as 2 or 3 year ARMs.

.

@ad,

I’m not a fan of rate buy down unless you believe you could never refinance again due to your financial situation. It’s personal of course.

Eman says

I’m not a fan of rate buy down unless you believe you could never refinance again due to your financial situation. It’s personal of course.

In the same boat. Obviously buy what you can afford. 9 out of 10 times rates will come down from their highs. If you have to sell in two years and know that, probably better off renting. 5-7 years you should beat any cycle or crash and has the ability to refi to a lower rate if it's a forever home.

We're going to build with 7% interest rate. Just do what you can afford now and if the loan gets cheaper, refi. if rates go higher you got a deal. We have not intention of moving again for a decade and maybe 5 with winters in the Caribbean after 55 or so.