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housing prices peak 2
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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm 601,682 views 5,636 comments
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2810
Eman
2023 Jul 13, 4:40pm
Eman
2023 Jul 13, 4:40pm
GNL says
“Flip This House” show does it for publicity and to raise money for more flips. Flipping real estate is a job, a very well paying job, if one is good at it. It would be investing if you’re an equity partner.
Check out this gal in my market. She’s quite successful at it and makes 7 figures e year vs. works for the man and makes six figures.
https://youtube.com/@TransformRealEstate
The article you linked has good contents, just lack of depth. The investors in the article shared good advice about those markets and made a good case for them: 1) population growth, 2) economic prosperity, 3) favorable policies and 4) affordable. The fact that they’re affordable, “This allows for tremendous appreciation for property owners with the right investments.” This advice should be heeded. Buyers beware and should do their own due diligence.
How about all of those flip this house shows? Is that investing in RE?
How about this article found just now on Yahoo...https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/real-estate-agents-buy-property-145842517.html
“Flip This House” show does it for publicity and to raise money for more flips. Flipping real estate is a job, a very well paying job, if one is good at it. It would be investing if you’re an equity partner.
Check out this gal in my market. She’s quite successful at it and makes 7 figures e year vs. works for the man and makes six figures.
https://youtube.com/@TransformRealEstate
The article you linked has good contents, just lack of depth. The investors in the article shared good advice about those markets and made a good case for them: 1) population growth, 2) economic prosperity, 3) favorable policies and 4) affordable. The fact that they’re affordable, “This allows for tremendous appreciation for property owners with the right investments.” This advice should be heeded. Buyers beware and should do their own due diligence.
2811
Eman
2023 Jul 13, 4:53pm
Eman
2023 Jul 13, 4:53pm
Rubicon says
It takes conviction to do that. I actually know someone who did it during the last housing bubble successful. She listened to Bruce Norris and actually pulled the trigger. Her name is Geraldine Barry, former president of SJREI. However, Bruce doesn’t expect a crash this time around so don’t do it.
Everyone is different. NuttBoxer believes in his “housing crash” thesis so let him be. I don’t know about other markets, but it makes no sense to be a home buyer, in most cases, in the Bay Area at the moment. The own vs. rent disparity is massive.
GNL says
Rubicon says
Huh? Of course RE is an investment. Nobody has questioned that. For many it’s the biggest investment they’ll ever make! Most of my wealth is invested in RE. What’s your point?
You said no one treats houses like stocks.
Exactly.
Have you ever met someone who said: market is pretty high right now. I am going to sell my house! Live in a car or a rental and then buy back in a year when the market is down 30%.
It takes conviction to do that. I actually know someone who did it during the last housing bubble successful. She listened to Bruce Norris and actually pulled the trigger. Her name is Geraldine Barry, former president of SJREI. However, Bruce doesn’t expect a crash this time around so don’t do it.
Everyone is different. NuttBoxer believes in his “housing crash” thesis so let him be. I don’t know about other markets, but it makes no sense to be a home buyer, in most cases, in the Bay Area at the moment. The own vs. rent disparity is massive.
2812
GNL
2023 Jul 13, 5:33pm
GNL
2023 Jul 13, 5:33pm
Rubicon says
Yes and no. No, I haven't heard anyone say they were going to go live in a car for God's sake. That is a ridiculous question and you know it. Come on, be an honest debater will you? Yes, there are people I know that have sold in order to buy back in. Yes, their personal residence. No, they did not have kids are other factors that would cause too much discomfort. Are you telling me that people don't sell into a high and then put their $$ some place else that they believe will bring greater profits? Is everyone doing these types of things? Of course not but I do know several RE investors that are selling right now. Maybe not all of their RE but certainly some of it.
@Nuttboxer is right, you only look at it one way.
@Eman, of course flipping is a job and has made many people tons of $$. I see it every day. Whole neighborhoods being knocked down one house at a time and replaced with McMansions because those old lots are the only ones left big enough to build close enough to town/city/work. I know of homeowners who have lived in 900 square foot shit boxes for the last 30 years but add on or "pop the top" just before selling because they have been lowballed forever by the builders and the only way they see to get top dollar is to make the home unprofitable for the builders to knock down.
Have you ever met someone who said: market is pretty high right now. I am going to sell my house! Live in a car or a rental and then buy back in a year when the market is down 30%.
Yes and no. No, I haven't heard anyone say they were going to go live in a car for God's sake. That is a ridiculous question and you know it. Come on, be an honest debater will you? Yes, there are people I know that have sold in order to buy back in. Yes, their personal residence. No, they did not have kids are other factors that would cause too much discomfort. Are you telling me that people don't sell into a high and then put their $$ some place else that they believe will bring greater profits? Is everyone doing these types of things? Of course not but I do know several RE investors that are selling right now. Maybe not all of their RE but certainly some of it.
@Nuttboxer is right, you only look at it one way.
@Eman, of course flipping is a job and has made many people tons of $$. I see it every day. Whole neighborhoods being knocked down one house at a time and replaced with McMansions because those old lots are the only ones left big enough to build close enough to town/city/work. I know of homeowners who have lived in 900 square foot shit boxes for the last 30 years but add on or "pop the top" just before selling because they have been lowballed forever by the builders and the only way they see to get top dollar is to make the home unprofitable for the builders to knock down.
2813
GNL
2023 Jul 13, 5:40pm
GNL
2023 Jul 13, 5:40pm
@Eman, btw, I'd love to hear your number crunching strategy on when, where and how to buy RE.
2814
Eman
2023 Jul 13, 6:26pm
Eman
2023 Jul 13, 6:26pm
GNL says
I believe I’ve shared my number crunching on here a few times. It’s not rocket science. Anyone can do it on a piece of paper at anywhere, any place. With enough practice, one can eyeball the deal from miles away before even needing to crunch any numbers.
We only buy in one zip code (95112), which is our farm. We have the scale and a full time handyman to make our lives easier.
I have ventured out a little, within driving distance of course, because the deals were good. Otherwise, not worth the efforts. We only have a finite amount of time on this earth. I’m trying to be wiser with it.
Eman, btw, I'd love to hear your number crunching strategy on when, where and how to buy RE.
I believe I’ve shared my number crunching on here a few times. It’s not rocket science. Anyone can do it on a piece of paper at anywhere, any place. With enough practice, one can eyeball the deal from miles away before even needing to crunch any numbers.
We only buy in one zip code (95112), which is our farm. We have the scale and a full time handyman to make our lives easier.
I have ventured out a little, within driving distance of course, because the deals were good. Otherwise, not worth the efforts. We only have a finite amount of time on this earth. I’m trying to be wiser with it.
2815
GNL
2023 Jul 13, 7:01pm
GNL
2023 Jul 13, 7:01pm
Eman says
Yes, I believe you have. I'll look for it.
I believe I’ve shared my number crunching on here a few times.
Yes, I believe you have. I'll look for it.
2816
Eman
2023 Jul 13, 7:36pm
Eman
2023 Jul 13, 7:36pm
Rubicon says
On the same token, we have some really smart people on this site like “justme” who was holding out on buying since the housing crash. Not sure if he bought something eventually.
BMWman took the tough pill and bought a SFH in Santa Clara for $850k around 2015. I thought it was high at the same, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s worth $1.5-$1.7M now.
Iwog, SFace and I got lucky we bought at the bottom of the housing crash. They stopped buying around 2012-2013 while I kept buying.
A retiree, who is also a real estate investor, told me his neighbor sold his house in 1989 due to the top of the housing market and the collapse of the national debt coming. He was priced out after that and ended up moving out of state.
At the end of the day, we all make our bets and live with the consequences. Everyone’s risk tolerance is different, and everyone has different comfort level when it comes to renting vs. buying. Let them be.
“ Yes, there are people I know that have sold in order to buy back in. ”
Market timers? Yeah, and how did that work out for them?
Sure, you can always find someone who makes a bad choice (like nutty). Believe it or not I know someone who knows a lesbian who got her vagina removed and replaced with something that was supposed to be a penis.
On the same token, we have some really smart people on this site like “justme” who was holding out on buying since the housing crash. Not sure if he bought something eventually.
BMWman took the tough pill and bought a SFH in Santa Clara for $850k around 2015. I thought it was high at the same, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s worth $1.5-$1.7M now.
Iwog, SFace and I got lucky we bought at the bottom of the housing crash. They stopped buying around 2012-2013 while I kept buying.
A retiree, who is also a real estate investor, told me his neighbor sold his house in 1989 due to the top of the housing market and the collapse of the national debt coming. He was priced out after that and ended up moving out of state.
At the end of the day, we all make our bets and live with the consequences. Everyone’s risk tolerance is different, and everyone has different comfort level when it comes to renting vs. buying. Let them be.
2817
GNL
2023 Jul 13, 7:59pm
GNL
2023 Jul 13, 7:59pm
For the record, I didn't say you guys haven't been successful. Or that RE isn't a wealth creation vehicle. Of course it is. The problem is that people say there is no risk. Of course there is.
2818
AD
2023 Jul 13, 10:47pm
AD
2023 Jul 13, 10:47pm
Rubicon says
Yeah, loved reading the Calculated Risk Blog with Doris "Tanta" Dungey providing much needed insight (and relief) among the sea of real estate sales industry clowns and fools.
And Patrick came on scene around when I was following Calculated Risk Blog with his 20/20 appearance an his very valuable book.
The Wolfman offers a lot of similar perspective and insight also in his Wolf Street website.
,
It’s about calculated risk.
Yeah, loved reading the Calculated Risk Blog with Doris "Tanta" Dungey providing much needed insight (and relief) among the sea of real estate sales industry clowns and fools.
And Patrick came on scene around when I was following Calculated Risk Blog with his 20/20 appearance an his very valuable book.
The Wolfman offers a lot of similar perspective and insight also in his Wolf Street website.
,
2819
AD
2023 Jul 13, 10:52pm
AD
2023 Jul 13, 10:52pm
Rubicon says
I remember Alan Greenspan testifying for Congress and making similar reference to this as far as housing being comparable to stocks.
,
Exactly.
Have you ever met someone who said: market is pretty high right now. I am going to sell my house! Live in a car or a rental and then buy back in a year when the market is down 30%.
I remember Alan Greenspan testifying for Congress and making similar reference to this as far as housing being comparable to stocks.
,
2820
WookieMan
2023 Jul 14, 3:34am
WookieMan
2023 Jul 14, 3:34am
You should own your primary home if you're at least handy enough to take care of the basics. You'll likely live there 7-10 years. It will almost certainly appreciate. Those are tax free gains on a primary home. That's a big deal if you earn a decent income. If you bought a $400k home and it now $500k you get $100k and no payment to the government or state.
Renting has it's place. But it make little sense in the long term as generally no one is disciplined enough to invest the difference if renting is cheaper. Flexibility is nice, but so is the flexibility of the landlord to sell the place at any time. Been there, done that. Won't do it again unless it's a snowbird type of thing in the Caribbean during retirement years for 4-6 months.
Renting has it's place. But it make little sense in the long term as generally no one is disciplined enough to invest the difference if renting is cheaper. Flexibility is nice, but so is the flexibility of the landlord to sell the place at any time. Been there, done that. Won't do it again unless it's a snowbird type of thing in the Caribbean during retirement years for 4-6 months.
2821
GNL
2023 Jul 14, 4:06am
GNL
2023 Jul 14, 4:06am
@Rubicon
A lot of predictions would have been proven correct if not for government intervention. This opens a whole new type of conversation...moral hazard.
A lot of predictions would have been proven correct if not for government intervention. This opens a whole new type of conversation...moral hazard.
2822
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2023 Jul 14, 5:00am
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2023 Jul 14, 5:00am
Rubicon says
Wolfe said the banks do not create money. Ugh. He also censors truthful comments like “the not based upon science lockdowns” negative affects on the economy. Yes, one of his readers actually acused me of making a racist comment based upon my use of slang in my comment.
wolfstreet is a great place to find them.
Wolfe said the banks do not create money. Ugh. He also censors truthful comments like “the not based upon science lockdowns” negative affects on the economy. Yes, one of his readers actually acused me of making a racist comment based upon my use of slang in my comment.
2823
GNL
2023 Jul 14, 5:27am
GNL
2023 Jul 14, 5:27am
@Rubicon and @Eman
How did the rent moratorium effect your RE?
Btw, I'm quite familiar with the wealth building possibilities of RE, my daughter married into a family whose grandfather built quite an RE empire here in the DC area. I'd bet they own close to a billion $$ in RE. My son inlaw is a trust funder. They live very well.
How did the rent moratorium effect your RE?
Btw, I'm quite familiar with the wealth building possibilities of RE, my daughter married into a family whose grandfather built quite an RE empire here in the DC area. I'd bet they own close to a billion $$ in RE. My son inlaw is a trust funder. They live very well.
2825
Eman
2023 Jul 14, 6:06am
Eman
2023 Jul 14, 6:06am
Wolf Ritchter is a perma-bear, same as Zerohedge. They only peddle negative news. I’ve read their stuff over the years. No thanks.
2827
GNL
2023 Jul 14, 6:46am
GNL
2023 Jul 14, 6:46am
Neither is perma bull except that the government backstops many things which enhances economic bubalicousness.
2828
zzyzzx
2023 Jul 14, 8:47am
She could try the most effective way of selling a house, or anything for that matter
......lower the price
Link:
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/1295-N-Cedar-Blvd-Unit-6_Cedar-City_UT_84721_M27748-17449
zzyzzx
2023 Jul 14, 8:47am
She could try the most effective way of selling a house, or anything for that matter
......lower the price
Link:
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/1295-N-Cedar-Blvd-Unit-6_Cedar-City_UT_84721_M27748-17449
2829
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 Jul 14, 10:08am
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 Jul 14, 10:08am
zzyzzx says
Didn't you pay attention, it's the interest rates!
I wonder what made these people leverage themselves so irresponsibly. I mean we certainly don't have anyone on patnet who would propose such reckless actions, or do we..?
She could try the most effective way of selling a house, or anything for that matter
......lower the price
Didn't you pay attention, it's the interest rates!
I wonder what made these people leverage themselves so irresponsibly. I mean we certainly don't have anyone on patnet who would propose such reckless actions, or do we..?
2831
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 Jul 14, 3:09pm
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 Jul 14, 3:09pm
It's not really up over the past year, or the past five years, save a spike during the Scamdemic.
2832
Eman
2023 Jul 14, 4:21pm
Eman
2023 Jul 14, 4:21pm
zzyzzx says
From a real estate investor perspective, the house is dated and looks filthy. If the owner doesn’t bother to get the house up to snuff to sell, what else does she neglect?
Not sure when she bought it, but looking at the price history, this townhouse has tripled in value since the bottom of the housing crash. Fair market rent is $1,685/month per Zillow. Real estate in this part of the woods is cheap. This means the demand is likely low. Talking about a bunch of bad combination.
She could try the most effective way of selling a house, or anything for that matter
......lower the price
Link:
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/1295-N-Cedar-Blvd-Unit-6_Cedar-City_UT_84721_M27748-17449
From a real estate investor perspective, the house is dated and looks filthy. If the owner doesn’t bother to get the house up to snuff to sell, what else does she neglect?
Not sure when she bought it, but looking at the price history, this townhouse has tripled in value since the bottom of the housing crash. Fair market rent is $1,685/month per Zillow. Real estate in this part of the woods is cheap. This means the demand is likely low. Talking about a bunch of bad combination.
2834
AD
2023 Jul 15, 12:04am
AD
2023 Jul 15, 12:04am
1337irr says
,
.
SHORT SALE! Trending for the win!
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=short+sale&hl=en
,
.
2835
WookieMan
2023 Jul 15, 3:36am
WookieMan
2023 Jul 15, 3:36am
ad says
Banks won't mess around this time if it gets bad. I don't think it will housing wise. Forbearance would probably be the better search word. Banks learned they're not in the landlord/maintenance business last time and they suck balls at it. They want a payment, not property management. Any housing crash will be hidden. And price drops are likely in cities and they'll generally be minimal, mostly.
Major metro areas are for sure going to see problems though. The idea of going to an office, commuting and then picking around with other people at work is LESS productive than sitting in your underwear and actually getting the job done in 5 hours. Managers need to manage though. So they're going to insist on getting back to work at the office. Covid changed the whole dynamic of the work environment. I think for the better so people don't have to live in shit holes that are "close" to work.
1337irr says
SHORT SALE! Trending for the win!
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=short+sale&hl=en
,
.
Banks won't mess around this time if it gets bad. I don't think it will housing wise. Forbearance would probably be the better search word. Banks learned they're not in the landlord/maintenance business last time and they suck balls at it. They want a payment, not property management. Any housing crash will be hidden. And price drops are likely in cities and they'll generally be minimal, mostly.
Major metro areas are for sure going to see problems though. The idea of going to an office, commuting and then picking around with other people at work is LESS productive than sitting in your underwear and actually getting the job done in 5 hours. Managers need to manage though. So they're going to insist on getting back to work at the office. Covid changed the whole dynamic of the work environment. I think for the better so people don't have to live in shit holes that are "close" to work.
2836
AD
2023 Jul 15, 10:35am
AD
2023 Jul 15, 10:35am
WookieMan says
All based on supply and demand, and also interest rates (even after buying down the maximum of 1% by buying 4% in discount points).
Ultimately a lot of purchases are driven by housing cost affordability standards such as no more than 35% of household income.
But I think a lot of homes are not underwater if prices drop 15%. And remember also there are no shit loans or subprime loans, as well as 2 or 3 year ARMs.
.
Banks won't mess around this time if it gets bad
All based on supply and demand, and also interest rates (even after buying down the maximum of 1% by buying 4% in discount points).
Ultimately a lot of purchases are driven by housing cost affordability standards such as no more than 35% of household income.
But I think a lot of homes are not underwater if prices drop 15%. And remember also there are no shit loans or subprime loans, as well as 2 or 3 year ARMs.
.
2837
Eman
2023 Jul 15, 11:52am
Eman
2023 Jul 15, 11:52am
ad says
@ad,
I’m not a fan of rate buy down unless you believe you could never refinance again due to your financial situation. It’s personal of course.
WookieMan says
Banks won't mess around this time if it gets bad
All based on supply and demand, and also interest rates (even after buying down the maximum of 1% by buying 4% in discount points).
Ultimately a lot of purchases are driven by housing cost affordability standards such as no more than 35% of household income.
But I think a lot of homes are not underwater if prices drop 15%. And remember also there are no shit loans or subprime loans, as well as 2 or 3 year ARMs.
.
@ad,
I’m not a fan of rate buy down unless you believe you could never refinance again due to your financial situation. It’s personal of course.
2838
WookieMan
2023 Jul 15, 2:49pm
WookieMan
2023 Jul 15, 2:49pm
Eman says
In the same boat. Obviously buy what you can afford. 9 out of 10 times rates will come down from their highs. If you have to sell in two years and know that, probably better off renting. 5-7 years you should beat any cycle or crash and has the ability to refi to a lower rate if it's a forever home.
We're going to build with 7% interest rate. Just do what you can afford now and if the loan gets cheaper, refi. if rates go higher you got a deal. We have not intention of moving again for a decade and maybe 5 with winters in the Caribbean after 55 or so.
I’m not a fan of rate buy down unless you believe you could never refinance again due to your financial situation. It’s personal of course.
In the same boat. Obviously buy what you can afford. 9 out of 10 times rates will come down from their highs. If you have to sell in two years and know that, probably better off renting. 5-7 years you should beat any cycle or crash and has the ability to refi to a lower rate if it's a forever home.
We're going to build with 7% interest rate. Just do what you can afford now and if the loan gets cheaper, refi. if rates go higher you got a deal. We have not intention of moving again for a decade and maybe 5 with winters in the Caribbean after 55 or so.
2840
AD
2023 Jul 15, 9:28pm
AD
2023 Jul 15, 9:28pm
Eman says
I look at my income that is counted toward a VA mortgage like VA disability pension, 1099 work, dividends (not capital gains from option trading), and my SEPP from my IRAs.
So I figure if I could increase housing affordability by lowering our 30 year mortgage rate 1% then I'll buy the 4% in discount points.
Hence, its an extra 4% in housing price, and I believe the VA allows 2% of discount points to be rolled into a mortgage.
I also compare that the affordability rule that a 1% increase in 30 year interest rate means a 10% increase in housing price.
.
ad,
I’m not a fan of rate buy down unless you believe you could never refinance again due to your financial situation. It’s personal of course.
I look at my income that is counted toward a VA mortgage like VA disability pension, 1099 work, dividends (not capital gains from option trading), and my SEPP from my IRAs.
So I figure if I could increase housing affordability by lowering our 30 year mortgage rate 1% then I'll buy the 4% in discount points.
Hence, its an extra 4% in housing price, and I believe the VA allows 2% of discount points to be rolled into a mortgage.
I also compare that the affordability rule that a 1% increase in 30 year interest rate means a 10% increase in housing price.
.
2841
AmericanKulak
2023 Jul 15, 9:48pm
AmericanKulak
2023 Jul 15, 9:48pm
Again, in my East Coast FL area, the stubborn ass old home owners - and I'm talking 1200 sq ft early-mid 60s spacerace boom houses on 1/5th acre, carport (no garage), a 2 bedroom with the sunroom enclosed (badly), with HVAC often added later and poorly (ie enclosed sunroom only has one small vent, will be 5-10F hotter than the rest of house) - $280-299k.
VERSUS
Brand new DR Horton $281-306k for genuine 3 bedrooms with another 200 sq ft under air (1400-1600) a decent sized master suite with walk-in closets, new everything inc. built in USB ports, brand new and not undersized later added Central HVAC, roof, etc. AND the Builders unlike the homeloaners/inheritance kids are covering closing costs. Granted, they're zero lots, maybe 6000 sq ft total, but they come with 2-car garages.
I still just can't imagine paying north of $2000/month for a 3 bedroom/2 bath house or having to come up with ~$50-60k down.
VERSUS
Brand new DR Horton $281-306k for genuine 3 bedrooms with another 200 sq ft under air (1400-1600) a decent sized master suite with walk-in closets, new everything inc. built in USB ports, brand new and not undersized later added Central HVAC, roof, etc. AND the Builders unlike the homeloaners/inheritance kids are covering closing costs. Granted, they're zero lots, maybe 6000 sq ft total, but they come with 2-car garages.
I still just can't imagine paying north of $2000/month for a 3 bedroom/2 bath house or having to come up with ~$50-60k down.
2842
Eman
2023 Jul 15, 10:14pm
Eman
2023 Jul 15, 10:14pm
AmericanKulak says
To put things in perspective, people in San Jose pay $2k-$2.5k/month for a 1-bedroom apartment. People pay up to $3.5k/month for a 1-bedroom in San Francisco.
If I can work from home, I’m out of here. This explains the exodus of Californians to other states thanks to the pandemic and WFH.
Again, in my East Coast FL area, the stubborn ass old home owners - and I'm talking 1200 sq ft early-mid 60s spacerace boom houses on 1/5th acre, carport (no garage), a 2 bedroom with the sunroom enclosed (badly), with HVAC often added later and poorly (ie enclosed sunroom only has one small vent, will be 5-10F hotter than the rest of house) - $280-299k.
VERSUS
Brand new DR Horton $281-306k for genuine 3 bedrooms with another 200 sq ft under air (1400-1600) a decent sized master suite with walk-in closets, new everything inc. built in USB ports, brand new and not undersized later added Central HVAC, roof, etc. AND the Builders unlike the homeloaners/inheritance kids are covering closing costs. Granted, they're zero lots, maybe 6000 sq ft total, but they come with 2-car garages.
I still just can't imagine paying north of $2000/month for a 3 bedroom/2 bath house or having to come up with ~$50-60k down.
To put things in perspective, people in San Jose pay $2k-$2.5k/month for a 1-bedroom apartment. People pay up to $3.5k/month for a 1-bedroom in San Francisco.
If I can work from home, I’m out of here. This explains the exodus of Californians to other states thanks to the pandemic and WFH.
2843
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2023 Jul 15, 10:36pm
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2023 Jul 15, 10:36pm
zzyzzx says
She already did. Probably can't go further.
She could try the most effective way of selling a house, or anything for that matter
......lower the price
She already did. Probably can't go further.
2844
WookieMan
2023 Jul 16, 3:21am
WookieMan
2023 Jul 16, 3:21am
Eman says
I think it's beyond that. I don't think people want to be in or near cities anymore. You have to drop 7 figures plus to be in the "nice" part of a city and even then you can still get haggled by homeless, wife raped, held up at gun point, house robbed, generally shit schools, etc. Is that really worth it? Parking sucks in any city I've been to. Public transit is gross and dangerous. Amenities on paper "seem" close but it still takes 20-30 minutes to get to anything. Layer in defunding police and the lack of moral in every major cities PD, it's a recipe for disaster.
I don't know, not knocking anyone particularly, but if you're staying in a city I say you're not that intelligent. Automobiles and planes exist if you want to visit family. Also it's okay to let go of the past. You can always make new friends and go back and visit the old. I don't even like large suburbs anymore. They're all run by liberal school board moms that know nothing.
I like rural. I dislike my driving, but if you maintain a vehicle well you'll do fine. You can also afford a nicer vehicle so it's more comfortable. You're generally closer to cool things to do that aren't available in a city unless you enjoy homelessness, graffiti and piss/shit/garbage everywhere. And I don't want to hear the weather excuse from CA, TX or FL people. Winter isn't difficult at all.
WFH is a thing and so is cost. But it literally makes no sense on paper to live in a city by any metric. Chicago is a clean(ish) city in the spots it wants to be. It's still gross. Traffic, noise, light pollution, garbage, no parking, bad transit, bad politics, etc. If you could define "hell on earth" in the dictionary or a thesaurus it would be "city."
If I can work from home, I’m out of here. This explains the exodus of Californians to other states thanks to the pandemic and WFH.
I think it's beyond that. I don't think people want to be in or near cities anymore. You have to drop 7 figures plus to be in the "nice" part of a city and even then you can still get haggled by homeless, wife raped, held up at gun point, house robbed, generally shit schools, etc. Is that really worth it? Parking sucks in any city I've been to. Public transit is gross and dangerous. Amenities on paper "seem" close but it still takes 20-30 minutes to get to anything. Layer in defunding police and the lack of moral in every major cities PD, it's a recipe for disaster.
I don't know, not knocking anyone particularly, but if you're staying in a city I say you're not that intelligent. Automobiles and planes exist if you want to visit family. Also it's okay to let go of the past. You can always make new friends and go back and visit the old. I don't even like large suburbs anymore. They're all run by liberal school board moms that know nothing.
I like rural. I dislike my driving, but if you maintain a vehicle well you'll do fine. You can also afford a nicer vehicle so it's more comfortable. You're generally closer to cool things to do that aren't available in a city unless you enjoy homelessness, graffiti and piss/shit/garbage everywhere. And I don't want to hear the weather excuse from CA, TX or FL people. Winter isn't difficult at all.
WFH is a thing and so is cost. But it literally makes no sense on paper to live in a city by any metric. Chicago is a clean(ish) city in the spots it wants to be. It's still gross. Traffic, noise, light pollution, garbage, no parking, bad transit, bad politics, etc. If you could define "hell on earth" in the dictionary or a thesaurus it would be "city."
2845
gabbar
2023 Jul 16, 4:14am
gabbar
2023 Jul 16, 4:14am
WookieMan says
If I could find a location where I could see sunrise and sunset, it would possibly work for me irrespective of other considerations. Lived in Pittsburgh in a shitty home but had great view of the lovely downtown, loved it in the evenings. For cities; there is a video of a guy eating a sandwich during riots in France, one has to have this mindset, imho.
I like rural.
If I could find a location where I could see sunrise and sunset, it would possibly work for me irrespective of other considerations. Lived in Pittsburgh in a shitty home but had great view of the lovely downtown, loved it in the evenings. For cities; there is a video of a guy eating a sandwich during riots in France, one has to have this mindset, imho.
2847
WookieMan
2023 Jul 16, 6:43am
WookieMan
2023 Jul 16, 6:43am
Rubicon says
I lived in Chicago just outside of downtown for about 6 years. I hated it, but had my fun pre-kids going out till 4am all around the city after work or school. I don't hate cities necessarily, but it's really only a spot for men and women to hook up really. Even if you need to go to work in a city it's generally not worth living in 99% of the time unless you're super wealthy.
I honestly put it at child abuse level to raise a kid in any major city in America at least. Fortunately my wife found a job back where we grew up in the far west suburbs, so we moved back there. Eventually moved even further out and haven't looked back. If you're social enough and live in a small town it can be more fun than living in a city to be honest. Especially with kids. Kids need places to roam and be safe. That's not happening in any city I've been to.
Fact is in most cities, kids might not even see anything outside where they live. They don't know there's another world out there as much as that sounds weird. I don't know, I'm only down to a handful of people that live in cities either in IL or elsewhere that I know. I think once the millennials blow their wad in the city they're going to run for the country. I see rents and housing prices dropping. Not a crash. There's just no value in urban areas for the most part besides bars, restaurants and entertainment. You can have a whole hell of a lot more fun in rural areas with little to no regulation.
Yeah, I see it the same way. you probable know singles who like to live in the city as well? I have a few single colleagues and also single relatives that don’t want to live anywhere else but the city. I am guessing once they have found a partner and start a family they will move away.
I lived in Chicago just outside of downtown for about 6 years. I hated it, but had my fun pre-kids going out till 4am all around the city after work or school. I don't hate cities necessarily, but it's really only a spot for men and women to hook up really. Even if you need to go to work in a city it's generally not worth living in 99% of the time unless you're super wealthy.
I honestly put it at child abuse level to raise a kid in any major city in America at least. Fortunately my wife found a job back where we grew up in the far west suburbs, so we moved back there. Eventually moved even further out and haven't looked back. If you're social enough and live in a small town it can be more fun than living in a city to be honest. Especially with kids. Kids need places to roam and be safe. That's not happening in any city I've been to.
Fact is in most cities, kids might not even see anything outside where they live. They don't know there's another world out there as much as that sounds weird. I don't know, I'm only down to a handful of people that live in cities either in IL or elsewhere that I know. I think once the millennials blow their wad in the city they're going to run for the country. I see rents and housing prices dropping. Not a crash. There's just no value in urban areas for the most part besides bars, restaurants and entertainment. You can have a whole hell of a lot more fun in rural areas with little to no regulation.
2848
GNL
2023 Jul 16, 7:20am
GNL
2023 Jul 16, 7:20am
WookieMan says
I would agree with this. The best years of my life were in Michigan. My father was a logger and we lived on 10 acres in the middle of almost nowhere. We had a pet racoon and a pet fox even (they do NOT make good pets).
I honestly put it at child abuse level to raise a kid in any major city in America at least.
I would agree with this. The best years of my life were in Michigan. My father was a logger and we lived on 10 acres in the middle of almost nowhere. We had a pet racoon and a pet fox even (they do NOT make good pets).
2849
mell
2023 Jul 16, 7:49am
GNL says
Even leftoid Michigan is nice. At least last time I was in Ann Arbor it was pretty nice. May have changed by now who knows.
WookieMan says
I honestly put it at child abuse level to raise a kid in any major city in America at least.
I would agree with this. The best years of my life were in Michigan. My father was a logger and we lived on 10 acres in the middle of almost nowhere. We had a pet racoon and a pet fox even (they do NOT make good pets).
Even leftoid Michigan is nice. At least last time I was in Ann Arbor it was pretty nice. May have changed by now who knows.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net
Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.
Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.