patrick.net

EBGuy says

1 in 8 San Francisco Home Sellers Is Losing Money—the Highest Share in the Nation
Roughly one of every eight (12.3%) homes that sold in San Francisco during the three months ending July 31 was purchased for less than the seller bought it for, up from 5% a year earlier. That’s a higher share than any other major U.S. metro and is quadruple the national rate of 3%.

Interesting article. Oakland and San Jose are also listed in their table, and aren't outliers within the country with respect to percentage of houses sold at a loss. SF's woes don't seem to be related to overall high prices, as San Jose's median profit per sale is actually higher! Another realization is that "sold at a loss" — mere sale price minus purchase price — is probably not even quite the right metric, as selling costs can be really add up quickly. If you added in selling costs and also all the banking costs associated with getting a mortgage on a different house (presumably yoou're moving from from one house to another) and the 1-in-8 figure is probably a lot worse.

EBGuy says

1 in 8 San Francisco Home Sellers Is Losing Money—the Highest Share in the Nation
Roughly one of every eight (12.3%) homes that sold in San Francisco during the three months ending July 31 was purchased for less than the seller bought it for, up from 5% a year earlier. That’s a higher share than any other major U.S. metro and is quadruple the national rate of 3%.

Also from the article:

“Even though home prices have fallen from their peak, a majority of home sellers are still reaping significant financial gains. Nationwide, 97% of home sellers sold for a profit during the three months ending July 31, with the typical home that sold going for 78.4% ($203,232) more than the seller bought it for.

Even in San Francisco, most homeowners are still making a lot of money. The typical home that sold in the metro went for 70.5% ($625,500) more than the seller bought it for.”

The late buyers tend to get screwed.

Big_Johnson says

Forget about this timing the market BS and all the noise. If you can comfortably afford a house to live in for the long term. Buy and enjoy being a homeowner.

This is really all it's about. My mortgage payment is trivial at $1,300 PITI. It's so low I don't even think about it. That's changing, but it's still under 10% of debt to income. Fact is until lending gets out of control again or everyone decides to move, there's not much downside for the foreseeable future. High interest rates will slow the uptick and some hipster areas will eat shit price wise, but nationally I still don't see anything negative. By that I mean a 10% plus correction nationwide.

That said I wouldn't want to be a buyer right now. You're going to pay a touch more than you should. But if you stay 7+ years and keep your job you'll do fine with lending standards now. Real estate isn't about "timing" it's about "time." Big distinction there. I'm not sure of a point in history outside of maybe a Detroit or something where if you held onto a home 10 years, you came out with less.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-really-hate-the-idea-of-buying-a-house-right-now-152340819.html

Americans really hate the idea of buying a house right now

https://www.redfin.com/news/homeowners-selling-at-a-loss-2023/

1 in 8 San Francisco Home Sellers Is Losing Money—the Highest Share in the Nation

zzyzzx says

https://www.redfin.com/news/homeowners-selling-at-a-loss-2023/

1 in 8 San Francisco Home Sellers Is Losing Money—the Highest Share in the Nation

Nooooooooooo!

https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/16bxxs6/this_guy_purchased_a_home_and_is_now_renting_it/

This guy purchased a home and is now renting it out $800 less then what the mortgage is!

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/16bxxs6/this_guy_purchased_a_home_and_is_now_renting_it/

This guy purchased a home and is now renting it out $800 less then what the mortgage is!

WHY DO YOU HATE APPRECIATION?!!!!

zzyzzx says

1 in 8 San Francisco Home Sellers Is Losing Money—the Highest Share in the Nation

Good. Fucking insane market crap has to end. Even mounds of shit, being mugged by homeless and psychotic, and installed political puppets are just grazing it.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/the-us-is-dealing-with-a-very-savagely-unhealthy-housing-market-says-this-real-estate-expert-here-s-why-and-what-to-do-about-it/ar-AA1gqhq3

Is the housing market officially on ice? Or rapidly moving toward a deep freeze? While no formal benchmark for a real estate recession may exist, make no mistake — skyrocketing mortgage rates and dwindling supplies are sending chills through this crucial sector of the U.S. economy.

When mortgage rates exceeded 6% in 2022, the nation experienced a historic drop in home sales. Now, with rates solidly in the 7% range, real estate analyst Logan Mohtashami of HousingWire warns that 8% isn’t far behind — a potentially prohibitive rate that would fuel a “very savagely unhealthy” market for buyers and sellers alike.

I wonder what Logan's forecast is for the Fed Funds rate and the 30 year mortgage rate for spring and summer 2024 leading to Biden's reelection bid.

https://sfstandard.com/2023/09/07/san-francisco-home-sellers-lose-money/

San Francisco Home Sellers Losing Most Money in the Nation, Report Says
Written by Lydia You
Published Sep. 07, 2023

San Franciscans lead the nation in home sales losses and are four times as likely to lose money when selling a home as the national average, according to a Redfin report.

Roughly one in eight, or 12.3%, of home sellers in San Francisco lost money on home sales in the three-month period ending July 31, according to the report.

People in Canada tell me there's a shitton of land in Ottawa, but enviro rules keep it undeveloped to maximize used home prices for realtors and land prices to keep out new development.

Come, come, buy my 1959 home that last sold for $147,000 when interest rates were around 3.5% in 2018

For $275k just a few years later with 7% interest rates.

Better hurry, this low price won't last until, uh, just buy it now.



"There isn't much inventory"

"Because homeloaners are being stubborn, demanding 2020 Blue State COVID Refugee era pricing with 3.5% loans in a 7% environment"

It's not inflation. The house should still be under $200k accounting for Bideninflation and a 1-2% YoY increase on top.

It's going to be so much FUN when the boomers have to sell to retire or they pass and their kids sell off these places they don't want to move to. When it goes, it's going to collapse.

AmericanKulak says

It's going to be so much FUN when the boomers have to sell to retire or they pass and their kids sell off these places they don't want to move to. When it goes, it's going to collapse.

Depends on inventory versus demand. Look at new housing starts and see if they continue to lag compared to 2000 to 2008, for example.

Also depends on work from home and job availability in locations where housing inventory is being sold by the heirs of the baby boomers.

If the heirs are selling homes in Colorado mountain towns such as a 5 acre, 3 bedroom home for $750,000, it may not be that hard if there are enough white liberal hipster$ willing to spend that money to live and work from home.
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I dunno...looks like you can fit 3 families of illegals into it, or with 20% down you can AirBnB it for $150 per night and cashflow positive.

Can always put down 3.5% (less than $10k) and have a hedge against hyperinflation.

We may think it is overpriced, but some Chinese commie thinks damn I gotta get all the money I can out of mainland China before it goes to zero.

One of the "It's gonna be different this time" sayings is gonna be wrong. Higher interest rates have shot the affordability outta reach for the same properties for people with similar incomes. Therefore, prices should go down to match people's more or less constant income. However, prices of real assets historically have gone up during periods of inflation. - So one or the other "this time is different"; will be different.

Misc says

Higher interest rates have shot the affordability outta reach for the same properties for people with similar incomes.

Depends on interest rates as the 30-year rate may drop by next March to 5.5% from 7.25% now. I'm hoping there is some conversion of vacation rentals to at least long-term rentals. I'm seeing rents holding steady for last 18 months in the Florida panhandle, with a lot of offers of free 1st month rent for a 13 month lease.

If I buy, then I'd pay 4 discount points to lower the rate to 4.5% (from 5.5%) if I'm going to live at least 7 years in the home.

If we sell our townhome for $310,000, we'd offer our assumable VA mortgage (at 3% and $155,000 balance) as well as would offer to pay up to 4 discount points to lowering the buyer's rate. That is why I hope the 30 year mortgage rate is down to at least 6% by next summer.

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Misc says

We may think it is overpriced, but some Chinese commie thinks damn I gotta get all the money I can out of mainland China before it goes to zero.

Yeah, there are a few on Patnet who think that foreign investors (Chinese, Indian, etc.) are going to continue to prop up the California real estate market.

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ad says

Misc says

We may think it is overpriced, but some Chinese commie thinks damn I gotta get all the money I can out of mainland China before it goes to zero.

Yeah, there are a few on Patnet who think that foreign investors (Chinese, Indian, etc.) are going to continue to prop up the California real estate market.

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In San Francisco the homeownership rate is 35%. The average San Francisco home value is $1,269,632, down 11.5% over the past year and goes to pending in around 20 days. I am guessing that the decrease in average price has to do with more lower priced homes selling instead of lower prices for the same house. It takes about 40% down to qualify for Freddie.Fannie becuase of the price caps, so most buyers have to go with Jumbo mortgages if they do financing because coming up with $480k down to just have it sit there doesn't make sense to most people. Even so, with a Jumbo you are looking at about $250k down, needing solid employment and a strong position in other financial assets. It is next to impossible for regular folk to get a foot onto the property ladder Still...houses go pending in 20 days.

While it doesn't make sense for a W2 employee...for Commies trying to get coin outta China before it goes to zero,,,well...

Most boomers I know as a geezer millennial have already downsized and sold off. I think that wave has passed at this point. Older boomers are nearing 80 at this point. They can't manage 3,500+ square feet. They sold already. My own mother is a prime example of this.

From 2015-2020 boomers did sell off at good prices. And younger people bought at low interest rates in homes that are likely lifetime (20 year) homes. The "no one is going to buy the boomer homes" is over already. Millennials that could buy already bought. This is exactly why inventory is going to stay low for the foreseeable future. Appreciation will hit a ceiling but there's no crash coming. We'd have to build 5x's more than we are now and that's not going to happen. Housing will be expensive for the next decade and maybe longer. We haven't even hit double digit interest rates. People are freaking out over below historic normal interest rates. Calm your ponies. Give me a call when they hit 15%. Demographically we're growing and not building at pace to keep up. Higher home prices. That's all there is to it.

WookieMan says

Demographically we're growing and not building at pace to keep up. Higher home prices. That's all there is to it.

If so, then somethings got to give. I suspect it will be multi-families living in single family homes.

Outside of the big metropolitans, real estate in America is still cheap by the world standard.

Our politicians are all talk and no actions. If they want to solve the housing crisis in the metropolitans, they can subsidize and build affordable housing for everyone even if higher density building is required to accomplish this goal.

Let’s look at it from a financial perspective. New construction is higher risk so higher cost of borrowing. Land in metros is expensive. Materials and labor are expensive. Permit fees are jose bleeding expensive. How can any developer build affordable housing with all the above costs?

Instead of solving the housing issue, the politicians force the developers to designate 20% of new development to affordable housing or pay a big fee for it. This drives up housing cost for the other 80% of new housing.

When presenting with facts, the hatred comes out against landlords and mom-and-pop investors. Who voted for all these left wing politicians? YOU! You created this mess while blame it on others. It’s so typical of the left wing. It’s always someone else’s fault.

Eman says

hatred comes out against landlords and mom-and-pop investors

What hatred is that? What hatred did you observe?

Misc says

In San Francisco the homeownership rate is 35%. The average San Francisco home value is $1,269,632, down

What is the average and median household income and savings for that area?

I envision it is tech executives making at least $2 million per year and are usually paying with cash, or its foreign buyers who are paying with cash as well.

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Instead of spending money to help Americans with housing, another $1B will go to Ukraine. Of course, 10% for the big guy.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-06/blinken-pledges-1-billion-more-to-ukraine-including-oligarchs-assets

Eman says

Instead of spending money to help Americans with housing, another $1B will go to Ukraine. Of course, 10% for the big guy.

These are Pukin's money, relax. We can't spend them on ourselves - that would be illegal. Besides, "help Americans " how? Are you proposing Soviet-style public housing projects built by the government? With 10% for the Big guy? Such an wholesome conservative you are!

RWSGFY says

These are Pukin's money, relax. We can't spend them on ourselves - that would be illegal. Besides, "help Americans " how? Are you proposing Soviet-style public housing projects built by the government? With 10% for the Big guy? Such an wholesome conservative you are!

Yes its seized money from Russian oligarchs. I am hoping more short term and vacation rentals get converted to long term rentals.

This should also reduce home prices as there will be less demand by landlord investors to purchase residential property.

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RWSGFY says

Eman says

Instead of spending money to help Americans with housing, another $1B will go to Ukraine. Of course, 10% for the big guy.

These are Pukin's money, relax. We can't spend them on ourselves - that would be illegal. Besides, "help Americans " how? Are you proposing Soviet-style public housing projects built by the government? With 10% for the Big guy? Such an wholesome conservative you are!

We can take a page from Singapore when it comes to subsidizing housing for their people.

Here's a plan to start:
- eliminate foreign investment in residential real estate
- eliminate all tax breaks for rental properties and any residential property that's not a primary residence
- for CA, eliminate Prop 13

That should loosen up the bowels

porkchopXpress says

- eliminate foreign investment in residential real estate
- eliminate all tax breaks for rental properties and any residential property that's not a primary residence

I don't think it is fair to a landlord if they cannot deduct expenses (i.e., tax breaks) such as for operating and maintenance expenses from plumbing repair to property management company services. It is a business after all, so they should be allowed to deduct expenses from their revenue.

My concern is there are a lot of homes that are sitting empty because no more than 1/2 the time they are occupied such as by vacation renters or by the property owners. I've seen a proliferation of AirBnB homes which would normally be long term rentals or occupied full time by the owners.

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Big_Johnson says

Abolish prop13, take away tax subsidies for landlords / Re investors. Change laws to make evictions nearly impossible. The list goes on and on and on.

Just because they want policies that you don't like doesn't mean they hate you.

Do you think porkchopXpress hates you?

porkchopXpress says

Here's a plan to start:
- eliminate foreign investment in residential real estate
- eliminate all tax breaks for rental properties and any residential property that's not a primary residence
- for CA, eliminate Prop 13

ad says

Yeah, there are a few on Patnet who think that foreign investors (Chinese, Indian, etc.) are going to continue to prop up the California real estate market.

I'm not one of them, homie. Just because they have till now doesn't mean I think they will continue to do so.

ad says

porkchopXpress says

- eliminate foreign investment in residential real estate
- eliminate all tax breaks for rental properties and any residential property that's not a primary residence

I don't think it is fair to a landlord if they cannot deduct expenses (i.e., tax breaks) such as for operating and maintenance expenses from plumbing repair to property management company services. It is a business after all, so they should be allowed to deduct expenses from their revenue.

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It’s a business that diminishes someone from owning a home, so perhaps it’s a business that should diminish as well. Is lining landlords pockets more important than a human’s livelihood? My proposal would make renting more expensive as it should be and free up inventory.

ad says

I don't think it is fair to a landlord if they cannot deduct expenses (i.e., tax breaks) such as for operating and maintenance expenses from plumbing repair to property management company services. It is a business after all, so they should be allowed to deduct expenses from their revenue.

All this is doing is shifting taxation onto the general public. Tell you what, if homeowners can deduct these expenses, this is fair.

Big_Johnson says

Hate is a bit of a strong word. Wishing taxes to increase for others because you don’t benefit from them is (insert a word). Higher taxes are almost never a good thing. Governments work inefficiently. The day a renter buys his first house in CA is the day he/she will love prop 13.

I know some people won't like my plan, but you can't make an omelet without breaking some eggs. I still think it would free up inventory, bring prices down, and allow people to more easily buy a primary residence. It would certainly piss off landlords but I go back to what's more important, landlords making money or people being able to buy a home?

porkchopXpress says

Big_Johnson says

Hate is a bit of a strong word. Wishing taxes to increase for others because you don’t benefit from them is (insert a word). Higher taxes are almost never a good thing. Governments work inefficiently. The day a renter buys his first house in CA is the day he/she will love prop 13.

I know some people won't like my plan, but you can't make an omelet without breaking some eggs. I still think it would free up inventory, bring prices down, and allow people to more easily buy a primary residence. It would certainly piss off landlords but I go back to what's more important, landlords making money or people being able to buy a home?

Adding to your sentiments...an ownership society is a much better society and we avoid becoming the 3rd world. @richwicks also made a great comment above. Every part of America is either financialized or in the process of becoming financialized. Those that "think" they're winning don't care. More people will wake up if something doesn't change.

https://twitter.com/STOCKMASTERJAY/status/1698747887633514694

Foreigners usually buy real estate at bubble tops then sell at bottoms, so their actions in the real estate market mostly contribute to the recycling of the dollar.

Everything of value is owned by someone, so the term "ownership society" doesn't make much sense at face value. The real idea is that Discrete and Competitive ownership is better for a society as competition promotes efficiency and prevents the rise of abusive bureaucratic power. It's not clear higher home ownership always leads a better society: China and Korea have home ownership rates approaching or over 90% (compare to around 60-65% in the US), and what they have in housing are massive speculative bubbles far worse than in the US. Because the US population has retained far lower savings rate than Chinese and Korean populations, it is quite likely that 30-40% of the population are not capable of maintaining their homes even if a home were given to them! That was proven in the last housing bubble: the no-money down loans designed to subsidize people into home ownership had a disproportionally higher foreclosure rate.

It would be quite unfair to force all people incapable of saving enough money for a roof leak or hot water tank leak to be permanently homeless; or for that matter students and people early in their career in a phase of high relocation probability. Housing service providers bring a useful service to the society by maintaining housing stock and giving people roofs over their heads. Every single one of the houses/buildings I bought was after foreclosures (and house being empty for at least a year therefore at risk of freeze-thaw cycle damage if kept empty for much longer) or short-sale (where the owner had stopped making mortgage payment and was essentially waiting to be foreclosed). If I didn't buy them, the houses/buildings would be abandoned (or was already abandoned, with thieves breaking into some of them having taken the copper pipes). I literally saved the houses/buildings from being deleted from local housing stock.

What we need to prevent is concentrated ownership. e.g. no one (or related parties) should be allowed to own more than 10% of any street block, so that people trying to buy or rent can have multiple competing choices. I have turned down neighbors trying to sell their apartment houses to me for that precise reason. What we need are discrete and competent ownership (whether homeowner or landlords) that can maximize the competition in the market place, not either the corporations owning the entire street block or incompetent subsidized temporary "owners" that shrink housing stock by letting houses deteriorate.

Too much financialization is indeed a problem. The irony is that much of the financialization in the housing market was/is subsidized by the government (allegedly) trying to increase ownership rate.

BTW, homeowners are already allowed to deduct the biggest part of homeownership expenses: interest expense. Business owners are allowed to deduct business expenses simply because business profit/income can only be calculated after subtracting expenses; it's not a subsidy. Having houses/buildings abandoned by owners/landlords would be quite devastating to the local municipal budgets, and to the local (young) population unable to find housing in the middle of abandoned buildings.

The homeless encampments of today are in some ways like the Hoovervilles of the Great Depression. But back then people were evicted or lost their homes due to the stock market and banking crash. Today it’s due to the purposeful Globalist strategy of making housing unaffordable and everyone’s life miserable. “You will own nothing.”

GNL says

The homeless encampments of today are in some ways like the Hoovervilles of the Great Depression. But back then people were evicted or lost their homes due to the stock market and banking crash. Today it’s due to the purposeful Globalist strategy of making housing unaffordable and everyone’s life miserable. “You will own nothing.”

They're also using the stock market with bizarre price distortions where money losing tech trannies get pumped to 1000 x revs in market cap while outstanding companies turning profitable get shorted to 1-2 x rev mkt cap. If course eventually value will be discovered and bid up while crap will drop, but they do this long enough to get retail to buy/sell to maximize their losses. There is now an anti-woke etf which probably will be worthwhile but you can bet the ppt will do everything to keep woke cos up