patrick.net

A whole lot of bullshit is being peddled. Prices have never been higher. Wanna know what's happening? Third worldization.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/09/27/renting-cheaper-than-buying-a-house/70974358007/

interesting article link above... 3 metros cited as having low priced housing...pittsburgh, memphis and birmingham (alabama)

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Schwarzwaelder says

ad says

What is interesting is the rent to home price ratio.

Back in 2006 when we bought our brand new townhome for around $185,000 with a 30 yr mortgage rate of 3%. The same model was renting for $1500 (or $18,000 per year). So the annual rent to price ratio is 10.3.

Now they are renting for $2100, yet the prices are around $300,000 having peaked about $330,000 back in early 2022.

What’s a good household income where you live? Not talking about median income.

About $61,000 is median household income and $75,000 is average household income

A friend of mine is assistant manager at small chain casual restaurant that serves sandwiches and makes about $18 an hour ... Buffalo Wild Wings was going to pay him $55,000 a year as assistant manager

I've seen local McDonalds on Front Beach Rd next to Walmart offer $15 an hour to start at entry level

Investors buying with cash these 3 bedroom townhomes and essentially renting out each bedroom for $700 a month

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Schwarzwaelder says

Thank you AD, and which city is this?

The best city in the best part of the world ... Panama City Beach in the Florida panhandle

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My concern is the rich have figured out how to make a lot of money buying rental property and making a lot of money by setting them up as boarding homes.

This is pushing out any working and middle class to buy a home.

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Housing will double in the next 5 years.

The company did 2 teardowns today. 1 for a $1,000,000 and 1 for $1,850,000.

ad says

Investors buying with cash these 3 bedroom townhomes and essentially renting out each bedroom for $700 a month

They are making at least $12,000 profit a year (which is conservative based on hiring a rental manager and budgeting $175 a month for interior repair, maintenance and renovation). This is worst case scenario.

The values go up at least 3.5% a year. If they paid $300,000, then their annual ROI is $12k divided by $300k or 4%. So at minimum the total annual return is 7.5%.

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I just talked with Jay at We Buy Homes with Cash. He is out of Miami Beach. He offered around $245,000 for our 3 bedroom townhome which would sell for around $300,000 now. I was just checking to see as that cash buyers are looking either for a cap rate of at least 9% or being able to flip the home within 6 month and make at least 10% profit.

I was following sales in other HOAs like this one.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1700-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87629985_zpid/

Notice it listed for $290k but sold for $280k

Peak price during pandemic for this home could have been $320k

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StillsearchingforagoodName says

ad says

I was following sales in other HOAs like this one.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1700-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87629985_zpid/

Notice it listed for $290k but sold for $280k

Peak price during pandemic for this home could have been $320k

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Hoas run about $100 per month and the property tax rate is about 1% of the purchase price? How much is homeowners insurance on avg for a 3B townhouse?

This HOA for the home in zillow listing above charges $425 a month but includes the insurance, trash, pool, fitness center, clubhouse, and landscaping.

I know someone who lives there and the internet is same as for my HOA which is Wow; we only pay $50 a month and cut the cord and watch free streaming like FreeVee, Pluto TV, Roku Channel, and Tubi.

They said the insurance there for there 3 bedroom townhome (about $300,000) is about $1400 a year as they are required to get HO-6 at least.

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StillsearchingforagoodName says

Thanks! And how much are property taxes?

about $135 a month for a $300,000 townhome

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StillsearchingforagoodName says

7.125% interest.

for our townhome we have about $153,000 left on the mortgage at 3% rate...they assume our mortgage and get a mortgage at 6% after buying down 4 discount points... their effective rate is 4.5% for a 30 year mortgage... that is a lot better than 7.125%

I read that some home builders are offering to buy down as much 2% to lower the rate from 7% to 5% for 30 year mortgage...

...

Pending home sales plummet MoM:
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/pending-home-sales-puked-august-lowest-record

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuying-activity-is-falling-off-a-cliff-140011295.html

Homebuying activity is falling off a cliff
Pending home sales for August plunge 7.1% from the month before.

Let us know when home sales plunge double digits in March-June. Until then this is all bear market scare tactics. The fall market is fluid and never consistent. 90% of the country doesn't want to move in the cold months, so yes, sales will fall. Even year over year. Next year they could be up 10% in September. This is the worst possible time to sell a house. Who wants to sell and move during the holidays? No one.

Whether one wants to believe it or not, people buy and sell based on the school schedule. So March-June you list and move during the summer when the kids are out or your work schedule is easier. When inventory jumps in those months I'll start to care. Right now I don't give a shit if it jumps 20%. It doesn't matter. People don't move right now unless it's forced or their testing the market for the spring (which is stupid).

No one can find a home in my area at all. We're talking months of trying. Anything on the market that hasn't sold is shit that people over priced. Anything decent sells in days still. Markets are different, but I'm not seeing any negatives here in expensive IL for what you get with property taxes and values.

Pending Home Sales Puked In August To The Lowest On Record



With existing home sales at their lowest since 2010 and new home sales finally hitting the wall, pending home sales were expected to decline MoM in August after an uptick in July (amid soaring mortgage rates and plunging affordability) and they did...bigly.

Pending home sales plunged 7.1% MoM in August (dramatically worse than the -1.0% expected) dragging sales down 18.8% YoY...

If your delusion needs re-enforcement, never fear, the Realtors' Chief Economist Lawrence Yun is always here to help:

“Some would-be home buyers are taking a pause and readjusting their expectations,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.

“It’s clear that increased housing inventory and better interest rates are essential to revive the housing market.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/pending-home-sales-puked-august-lowest-record

Does anyone have data on incomes? Have they been keeping up with inflation and housing?

ad says

Investors buying with cash these 3 bedroom townhomes and essentially renting out each bedroom for $700 a month

Amateurs!
Startup founders are paying $700 a month to stay in bed “pods” — tiny, semi-open boxes that only fit a single twin mattress and stand just 4 feet tall — according to media reports this week. The pods, made of steel and wood with a blackout curtain at one end, are arranged in a two-high, 14-long grid; residents share five bathrooms and a few common spaces, but don’t have a full kitchen or any laundry machines.
Techies are paying $700 a month for tiny bed 'pods' in downtown San Francisco

The typical American cannot afford to buy a home in a growing number of communities across the nation, according to common lending standards.

That's the main takeaway from a new report from real estate data provider ATTOM. Researchers examined the median home prices last year for roughly 575 U.S. counties and found that home prices in 99% of those areas are beyond the reach of the average income earner, who makes $71,214 a year, according to ATTOM..

Housing experts point to couple trends driving up housing costs. Mortgage rates have topped 7%, adding hundreds of dollars per month to a potential house payment. At the same time, homeowners who locked in at lower mortgage rates during the pandemic have opted not to sell out of fear of having to buy another property at today's elevated rates, depleting the supply of homes for sale.

"The only people who are selling right now are people who really need to move because of a life event — divorce, marriage, new baby, new job, etc.," Daryl Fairweather, chief economist of Redfin, told CBS MoneyWatch. "That lack of new inventory is keeping prices high."

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/homes-for-sale-affordable-housing-prices/

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ad says

"The only people who are selling right now are people who really need to move because of a life event — divorce, marriage, new baby, new job, etc.," Daryl Fairweather, chief economist of Redfin, told CBS MoneyWatch. "That lack of new inventory is keeping prices high."

And those life-event reactions cannot be postponed indefinitely...

AmericanKulak says

"That lack of new inventory is keeping prices high."

yes as housing starts dropped off from 2006 to 2009 ... there was never a large enough recovery in new housing since then

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST1F

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST

Lower prices ????

Nothing that a few million more illegals can't solve. You can fit 3 families of illegals into a regular 3/2. Construction of new homes is where it was back in the 60s with a record number of migrants coming in. Those pods pictured above are much better than the cages they use to house people in Hong Kong. Why they are even climate controlled.

Wanna bet some H1B's are sleeping in shifts in those Pods trying to save some dough????

The Fed backed itself into a corner. Housing costs are the #1 factor in inflation, however builders can't sell houses with interest rates this high. With the continued increase in migration exceeding the new building of housing units it just drives rents upwards, hence adding to inflation.

Misc says

Housing costs are the #1 factor in inflation

Housing costs are a symptom of inflation. The cause is the overprinting of money.

GNL says

Does anyone have data on incomes? Have they been keeping up with inflation and housing?

Engineer at my last company only got 3%. You think that matches inflation for 2022? I can tell you for a fact the blue collar workers I know are not keeping up. But then isn't that what got Trump into office in 2016? The only way I keep up is every time I take a new job I get more money.

NuttBoxer says

The only way I keep up is every time I take a new job I get more money.

And there you go. You're doing the right thing. Cut ties and get more or make them want to keep you and they pay more. Most people are push overs and don't like change. Gotta do what's best for you. One life to live.

Misc says

The Fed backed itself into a corner. Housing costs are the #1 factor in inflation, however builders can't sell houses with interest rates this high. With the continued increase in migration exceeding the new building of housing units it just drives rents upwards, hence adding to inflation.

Its going to take at least 3 years to let the air out of the bubble while household income catches up to housing prices. So home prices drop 15% over 3 years while income increases 3% annually. This can be done even if there is inventory is not high.
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NuttBoxer says

Engineer at my last company only got 3%. You think that matches inflation for 2022? I can tell you for a fact the blue collar workers I know are not keeping up. But then isn't that what got Trump into office in 2016? The only way I keep up is every time I take a new job I get more money.

Unless you have massive assets (which benefit from inflation) so that you can ride out the inflation rollercoaster, you're fucked. Corporate America is using inflation to churn demographics from 40-50's X'ers to 20-something Zoomers.

StillsearchingforagoodName says

Unless inventory goes up there is no way prices come down.

Very true. The housing crash and great recession of 2007-2011 caused the housing construction industry to collapse essentially.

I hope a lot of those AirBnBs at least get converted to long term rentals. That will help drive down housing costs and drive down inflation.

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stereotomy says

Corporate America is using inflation to churn demographics from 40-50's X'ers to 20-something Zoomers.

@stereotomy, What do you mean by this?

GNL says

stereotomy says

Corporate America is using inflation to churn demographics from 40-50's X'ers to 20-something Zoomers.

stereotomy, What do you mean by this?

Corporate land is promoting zoomers while freezing gen x out. Anyone past their 30's has a target on his back.

Found on Facebook:

CCCP_trollbot says

Home prices are positive yoy by 0.1%.

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/u-s-home-prices-rose-in-july-case-shiller-says-ab106b17

Epic crash. Not.

Yet?

Booger says

Found on Facebook:

RICO? Price fixing?

CCCP_trollbot says

GNL says

CCCP_trollbot says

Home prices are positive yoy by 0.1%.

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/u-s-home-prices-rose-in-july-case-shiller-says-ab106b17

Epic crash. Not.

Yet?

Lol. Perma bears have been moving the goal post since a decade now. No crash this year? Well here is a zerohedge article and surely prices will crash by x% by x date. It’s always soon or next year when this epic crash arrives. And before you know it another decade goes by and prices have doubled.

Are you saying housing never has and never will crash? That's not what you're saying is it because that's what it sounds like.

The thing about RE is it's backed by a fraudulent organization...the government. Well, and the federal reserve. RE people think they're genuises. It's kind of funny. If/when these organizations want RE to crash, it will crash. RE investors are rational actually but ignore the fact that they have the backing of fraudulent organizations. Small business, not so much. In fact small business is probably the most economically honest part of our country. Think about it.

I see you're ignoring another one of my questions.

This is a good article about economic metrics like the cost of a Whopper versus hourly wage for entry level worker as well as cost of housing versus household income.

A Whopper costs about 1/2 of what a fast food worker makes per hour in the Florida panhandle; I think it always has cost about 1/2 of what a fast food worker makes since the 1980s.

From what I've read, housing has gone up overall annual inflation rate + 0.5% since 1900. This is in line with Professor Robert Shiller who has stated housing has gone up about 4% a year historically. Zoning laws and building code likely account for a major part of housing cost inflation.

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https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/life-america-has-never-been-more-unaffordable-it-right-now

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CCCP_trollbot says

Speaking of fast food workers. In CA they make $20 minimum wage now.

https://www.gov.ca.gov/2023/09/28/california-increases-minimum-wage-protections-for-fast-food-workers/

Let’s go Newscum!

All for it, soon they'll make more than fresh MBA grads, whichI actually support, since fast food workers are more prodcutive than people graduating from woke schools. Can't make communism any worse than it already is, let's go newscum! The sooner he finishes CA the sooner we can bring this beautiful state back to its former glory.