patrick.net

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Panama City Beach is a growing area and very popular ... look here at this recent sale ...

it was originally priced $345,000 in May 2023 and sold this month for $272,000 ... it sold new for $179.900 in 2013 ....

that means it appreciated about 4.25% annually since 2013 :-/

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1734-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/121152666_zpid/

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Panama City Beach is a growing area and very popular ... look here at this recent sale ...

it was originally priced $345,000 in May 2023 and sold this month for $272,000 ... it sold new for $179.900 in 2013 ....

that means it appreciated about 4.25% annually since 2013 :-/

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1734-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/121152666_zpid/

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The Zillow Estimate or Zestimate shows a peak price around early 2023 of about $326,000 for this townhome.

The Zillow rent estimate of $2250 is somewhat accurate as they are renting in the range of $2100 to $2200.

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zzyzzx says

Hoom?

For new home sales, we record an increase of 33% over last year and we're at a 19 month high.

Median house price went down about 12% YoY because of builder incentives, smaller floorplans, less upgrades and smaller lots.

GDP NOW is forecasting an annualized increase in GDP of 5.4% for the 3rd quarter. So far, higher interest rates haven't slowed the economy.

Investors are demanding about 1.25% in higher spreads for mortgages over treasuries than historic levels because of the fear of the debtors refinancing when rates go lower.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-new-home-sales-accelerate-september-2023-10-25/

Home builders are also more aware of the Down Payment Assistance programs available to new buyers than the typical person selling an existing home.

https://homebuyer.com/learn/down-payment-assistance

Misc says

GDP NOW is forecasting an annualized increase in GDP of 5.4% for the 3rd quarter. So far, higher interest rates haven't slowed the economy.

Annndd....that means the Fed will raise rates higher. Because that is all they can do.

We're in the Trench Warfare Stalemate Stage between "Permanent Housing Plateau" vs. "Interest Rates Matter"

Eventually though, Interest Rates matter and the Demographics are working against Homeloaners.

The difference between 2008 and today is inflation, rates, and demography. The Plateauists are counting on NONE of those three having an impact.

AmericanKulak says

The difference between 2008 and today is inflation, rates, and demography. The Plateauists are counting on NONE of those three having an impact.

Housing stays flat while median income grows at least 2% annually greater than housing for the next 5 years.

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GasTheYoungTurks says

Misc says

GDP NOW is forecasting an annualized increase in GDP of 5.4% for the 3rd quarter. So far, higher interest rates haven't slowed the economy.

Annndd....that means the Fed will raise rates higher. Because that is all they can do.

Can have growth without annual inflation being above 3% to 3.5% annually. Productivity and innovation gains are at work.

I think 3% inflation is the new norm.

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PumpingRedheads says

zzyzzx says

Hoom?

Slang for home.

PumpingRedheads says

Annndd....that means the Fed will raise rates higher. Because that is all they can do.

They can sell off all their MBS's.

PumpingRedheads says

Annndd....that means the Fed will raise rates higher. Because that is all they can do.

The Fed is losing control of interest rates. They are going up irrespective of the Fed because federal government spending is way out of control, even moreso than in the past. This is rightly seen as inflationary and so rates are going up.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

PumpingRedheads says

Annndd....that means the Fed will raise rates higher. Because that is all they can do.

The Fed is losing control of interest rates. They are going up irrespective of the Fed because federal government spending is way out of control, even moreso than in the past. This is rightly seen as inflationary and so rates are going up.

True as investors want a higher rate on Treasuries to ensure they realize a real return on investment.

Part of reason why the Chinese were selling off Treasuries starting in 2014 was that they were not making any money after inflation.
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Al_Sharpton_for_President says

The Fed is losing control of interest rates. They are going up irrespective of the Fed because federal government spending is way out of control, even moreso than in the past. This is rightly seen as inflationary and so rates are going up.

Yep. They have to raise rates whether they like it or not.

zzyzzx says

They can sell off all their MBS's.

I think they have been for two years now.

PumpingRedheads says

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

The Fed is losing control of interest rates. They are going up irrespective of the Fed because federal government spending is way out of control, even moreso than in the past. This is rightly seen as inflationary and so rates are going up.

Yep. They have to raise rates whether they like it or not.

Housing prices are going down, and rent appears to be holding steady, if not dropping. Check out WolfStreet website as Wolfman reported about housing prices dropping 15% so far.

I would like to see GDP grow at least 2% above annual inflation.

Let's wait for tomorrow's monthly PCE report as the Federal Reserve puts a lot of preference on PCE

https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index

I don't see PCE being above 3.8% in tomorrow's report. As long as PCE stays below 4% for the next 3 months then I don't see the Fed raising rates.

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PumpingRedheads says

zzyzzx says

They can sell off all their MBS's.

I think they have been for two years now.

Yep, albeit at a slow rate so they don't force a depression. The Fed has a long way to reaching a balance sheet at 2019 levels :-/
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PumpingRedheads says

Misc says

GDP NOW is forecasting an annualized increase in GDP of 5.4% for the 3rd quarter. So far, higher interest rates haven't slowed the economy.

Annndd....that means the Fed will raise rates higher. Because that is all they can do.

Per Newsweek;
A new report from San Jose found builders are facing numerous challenges due to economic pressures, from high interest rates to skyrocketing material and labor costs.
The cost of building one unit of affordable housing in San Jose grew by 24 percent over the past year, surging from $757,900 to $938,700, the city said.
Louis Mirante, vice president of public policy at the Bay Area Council, described the problem to MSN: "The fewer projects, the less labor there is. The less labor there is, the fewer projects there are. That death spiral is going on."
San Jose's issues are more concentrated due to the scarce land, higher costs of labor and "bureaucratic roadblocks," Adrian Pedraza, a real estate broker who owns house flipping company The California Homebuyer, said.

Cost of "one unit of affordable housing", ??, smell like big corruption.

REpro says

San Jose's issues are more concentrated due to the scarce land, higher costs of labor and "bureaucratic roadblocks," Adrian Pedraza, a real estate broker who owns house flipping company The California Homebuyer, said.

I read the Newsom passed some reforms as far as encouraging affordable housing: https://www.novoco.com/news/california-governor-signs-series-affordable-housing-related-bills

As far as labor, the construction industries needs to innovate and gain more productivity such as using 3D printing technology, etc.

How about constructing pre-fab homes in cheaper zip codes and then sent the pre-fab home kits to California via trucks and/or rail ?

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REpro says

San Jose's issues are more concentrated due to the scarce land, higher costs of labor and "bureaucratic roadblocks," Adrian Pedraza, a real estate broker who owns house flipping company The California Homebuyer, said.

I read the Newsom passed some reforms as far as encouraging affordable housing: https://www.novoco.com/news/california-governor-signs-series-affordable-housing-related-bills

As far as labor, the construction industries needs to innovate and gain more productivity such as using 3D printing technology, etc.

How about constructing pre-fab homes in cheaper zip codes and then sent the pre-fab home kits to California via trucks and/or rail ?

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3D printing is great, you still need electricians, plumbers and installers for floors, cabinets and what not. Almost viable...
https://www.iconbuild.com/projects/community-first-village

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interesting as it does seem like rent is cooling down in Panama City Beach ... I noticed apartments are offering 1 month free ( https://www.urbanbluliving.com/ )

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/32407/

also, Colorado Springs has cooled off

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/colorado-springs-co/

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ad says

How about constructing pre-fab homes in cheaper zip codes and then sent the pre-fab home kits to California via trucks and/or rail ?

San Francisco, trade unions at odds over modular construction — even for homeless projects

Modular housing could be an answer
Factory OS uses unionized workers, but through an agreement with the carpenters’ union, workers perform a variety of tasks on the housing assembly line, rather than having the work divvied up among specialists, and the company employs many former prison inmates.
Politically influential construction trades unions are pushing San Francisco’s city officials to make 833 Bryant St. a one-time event rather than the beginning of a trend.
Larry Mazzola Jr., president of the San Francisco Building and Construction Trades Council, is sending a letter to Mayor London Breed and city supervisors criticizing the project’s “mistakes and over-costs.”

Supportive housing for 39 formerly homeless residents breaks ground on University Avenue
The project was initially supposed to be wholly constructed of prefabricated all-steel modular units like another of Kennedy’s buildings on Shattuck Avenue, but after 18 months working with a construction firm — the quoted price doubled, Kennedy said, partially due to the pandemic and supply chain issues. Ultimately, he said the company “couldn’t pull it together” on quality.
Developers shifted to Pleasanton-based Hawk Development, and the building will now have prefabricated components, but it will no longer be fully modular. Kennedy said the delays pushed up the cost of the project by about $2 million.
But because it’s still partially modular, the project will still cost below the per-unit average for building housing in the Bay Area. Each unit is expected to cost about $400,000, according to city officials. It will cost about $2 million annually to operate once it’s open, split between funding from Berkeley’s Measure P and Alameda County. Kaiser Permanente put about $500,000 toward the project.

EBGuy says

San Francisco, trade unions at odds over modular construction — even for homeless projects

thats a good article EB

i was thinking how a tiny home (i.e., ~120 sq foot) could be built on a trailer frame and used for basic shelter ...

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No municipality wants "cheap" housing. Property tax money is what they want. Higher value = higher tax. Maybe?

GNL says

No municipality wants "cheap" housing. Property tax money is what they want. Higher value = higher tax. Maybe?

yes and that is what is happening in LA (lower alabama) also known as Florida panhandle

they are building what they call "affordable housing" but it is marketed as "luxury apartments" like Urban Blu in Panama City Beach

the new housings being built by St Joe are crap shacks priced at least $450,000 where the average hourly rate is around $17 + tips for an assistant general manager at a Chicken Salad Chick restaurant

but I agree as they want the tax base so they want the income stream from property taxes

so what gives as far as the working class being near the jobs from restaurants to assisted living and nursing homes ?

what I am seeing is 3 bedroom townhomes in Panama City Beach being rented for $2100 a month by 3 restaurant service workers each making about $500 a week

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GNL says

No municipality wants "cheap" housing. Property tax money is what they want. Higher value = higher tax. Maybe?

In CA, property tax revenues go to the State and school districts. Cities can levy limited parcel taxes and sales taxes. So historically, they built 'Taj Mahal' super malls. But those are toast now.

The prefab thing is dead on arrival in almost every location besides rural locations is the problem. If you know transportation at all, modular is super cheap to build off site, quicker.... but it's a fortune to transport IF you can get it to your location. You have to build for bridges and power lines when moving them. A low pitched roof is required and by default it then looks like a trailer.

So they just do two sections and plop it down. My dad did two of them out on some wooded land in Northern IL. Worked here, but never, never would be acceptable in an urban/suburban area or town. It's not about property values. It's a classic case of NIMBYism and people being hypocritical as fuck, not government. People don't want those types of houses in their neighborhoods. AND the logistics on top of it.

We tried for about 2 years when I was in Chicago with my former employer. Tried really hard. It can be done in Chicago, but the gains from lower cost building off site are destroyed by getting it to the site. You have to do 6-10 modules that can fit under the bridges and power lines or pay $$$$$ to have a power line dropped near the destination. It wasn't cheaper and it wasn't "green." Plus you still have excavation, concrete and a lot of interior finishing still.

And yes, people have done some cool ones in Chicago. They were more expensive than stick built on site. Chicago was a nightmare of trying to figure out inspections and getting them into the city from Indiana. We then looked into a warehouse in Chicago proper and again the costs skyrocketed on the build and you STILL are dealing with transport issues and then local politics of hiring people of color. Wasn't worth the hassle or cost to sell something that wouldn't have a profit margin. Hence why we have trailer parks, so the houses all look the same.

If cheaper/affordable housing was a goal, it would happen. It isn't the goal.

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i was thinking how a tiny home (i.e., ~120 sq foot) could be built on a trailer frame and used for basic shelter ...

Yep, we got those too...
New dorms built in Oakland for youth facing housing insecurity

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https://fortune.com/2023/10/30/housing-market-recession-1980s-higher-for-longer-mortgage-rates-outlook-wells-fargo/

Despite countless recession calls from economists, analysts, and other experts this year and last, the U.S. economy as a whole has shown remarkable resiliency. The housing market, on the other hand, is a different story.

Mortgage rates hovering around 8% coupled with home prices that rose substantially during the pandemic have deteriorated housing affordability in the U.S. and frozen activity in some cases. The longer mortgage rates remain elevated, the higher borrowing costs become, and that could tip the housing market into a recession, according to Wells Fargo.

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interesting as it does seem like rent is cooling down in Panama City Beach ... I noticed apartments are offering 1 month free ( https://www.urbanbluliving.com/ )

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/32407/

also, Colorado Springs has cooled off

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/colorado-springs-co/

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@ad San Diego

Most recent Case/Shiller...housing prices up again by .1% MoM.
Maybe they'll go down at 9%.

Today’s housing market is the least affordable and least accessible it’s been in decades as mortgage rates reached 8% this fall and home prices continue to rise. Yet, every day homes are still sold as new buyers shell out tens of thousands of dollars for a down payment and lock into historically high mortgage payments. So just how bad is affordability? Zillow crunched some numbers and says it will take you a remarkably long time to break even if you buy a house under these market conditions.

Housing market affordability is so bad that Zillow says it will take you 13.5 years to break even on a purchase from July onward

https://fortune.com/2023/11/01/how-bad-housing-market-affordability-zillow-says-13-year-breakeven/

ad says

Housing market affordability is so bad that Zillow says it will take you 13.5 years to break even on a purchase from July onward

What does "break even" mean?

HeadSet says

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Housing market affordability is so bad that Zillow says it will take you 13.5 years to break even on a purchase from July onward

What does "break even" mean?

I assume it means selling at a high enough price that covers all years of maintenance + transaction fees without bringing $$ to closing.

GNL says

HeadSet says

ad says

Housing market affordability is so bad that Zillow says it will take you 13.5 years to break even on a purchase from July onward

What does "break even" mean?

I assume it means selling at a high enough price that covers all years of maintenance + transaction fees without bringing $$ to closing.

Yeah, likely to cover the operating and maintenance (O&M) costs. I view it as positive equity or book value. This would align with the use of the rent vs buy calculator.

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ad says

Yeah, likely to cover the operating and maintenance (O&M) costs. I view it as positive equity or book value. This would align with the use of the rent vs buy calculator.

Yes, I guess that would include interest paid also. Which I'd bet almost no one takes into consideration.