patrick.net

ad says

Are you saying that software (SW) is not going to be needed in the future because society is going to collapse that much ?

Decentralization is the future. In a decentralized world, how much of the current SW is still useful? I think it scales way back, like a lot of sectors that aren't absolutely necessary for everyday life. The future needs real products, small-town services, local, sustainable ways of living.

B.A.C.A.H. says

No use getting torqued up about an unstoppable force.

Only applies to assets that do not retain value outside the current Federal Reserve system. Forgetting the paper markets for metals, which are not different than any other paper market, physical coin has not had the same swings and losses. You can still buy a suit in Rome for the same price you could buy a nice set of clothes under Constantine. You won't get crazy upswings in value, just protection against inflation.

B.A.C.A.H. says

It's just the irony I see in preppers and horders of silver hoarders hoarding silver (an industrial metal) assuming that they can trade it for food, fuel, rent, and medical procedures.

Personally, I don't know anyone doing this. Everyone I know, including myself has rations, water, guns, ammo, and a place to go with others for protection. If all I had was coin, what's to stop someone from robbing me, forget about bartering, it won't get that far.

My wish is all of you make similar plans, because I don't want to see anyone in government lines for food with a side of booster. Plan to be able to survive without government, or plan to be enslaved.

I think it will be a depressed standard of living for 90% of the population. But I don't think it will get that bad. The poorer likely won't see much of a dramatic change. The middle class will see the greatest change, and will undergo a drop of 20% in quality of life.

That's already happened.

NuttBoxer says

That's already happened.

Cloward Piven is a winning strategy. Birdbrain Biden plans even more handouts.

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Nuttboxer, what types of denominations for metals do you hold? I've seen those combi bars where you can snap of the scored bars, which look real convenient, but they carry such a price premium. I was thinking of buying a variety of coins so I have some immediate variety, but plan to stock mostly larger bars that I will just cut up if needed.

I'm not yet at the point where I'm buying metals for my preps. I'm still working on higher priorities (last month I got 1000lb of grains from azurestandard, some solar gear, various other stuff). I think precious metals are of limited usefulness in shtf, but are certainly still one of the more useful things one could stock. While I think there will be brief periods of time where the vast majority of people are only seeking to acquire food/water like stuff, and thus wont care much about people offering to trade them metals, that period will pass. And people who have surplus of some resource, or those who are generally secure in their resources, will likely always be willing to take metals as payment to some degree imo.

Buy silver chains and simple rings.

Don't buy rounds. The gangs from the underground market that act as security will follow the guy with a roll of Walking Liberties home to kill him, rape his family, and steal all his preps.

Better to hand off the single silver ring or chain and say "I need that amox/Let me pass, take this chain my Aunt brought me as a kid." Rather than dig in your pockets and count out rounds: "Git 'em, he's rich!" and fight off 6 guys.

AmericanKulak says

Buy silver chains and simple rings.

We haven't had a good thread on the virtues of yams, clear fields of fire, and belt-fed lately.

Cannibal Anarchy is closer than ever.

Hircus says

Nuttboxer, what types of denominations for metals do you hold?

Whatever gives me the most ounces. Junk has gotten ridiculous on premiums due to scarcity. Rounds never seem to attract as many buyers, so they're usually a good way to go. And it depends on the ratio. Until it drops back to around 30, will be staying with silver.

AmericanKulak says

Buy silver chains and simple rings.

Don't buy rounds. The gangs from the underground market that act as security will follow the guy with a roll of Walking Liberties home to kill him, rape his family, and steal all his preps.

Better to hand off the single silver ring or chain and say "I need that amox/Let me pass, take this chain my Aunt brought me as a kid." Rather than dig in your pockets and count out rounds: "Git 'em, he's rich!" and fight off 6 guys.

I assume this is not serious. If you haven't prepared your defense, you are buying for someone else.

NuttBoxer says

RWSGFY says

I don't see how are you going to persuade somebody who has something real like food, energy or clothes you need that these old worn coins are worth more than what is written on them. "Son, it says 25 cents right there on the coin you gave me so why should I believe you that it's really $10? I'll just keep my jerry can of gasoline thankyouverymuch".

For sure. But if you aren't buying silver and gold, how likely are you to have the food, clothes, off grid energy and gasoline?

I don't see the correlation. It's perfectly normal to have shelter, food and means to defend yourself but no precious metals (not counting the wedding ring). It is burdersome to check precious metals for purity now, it will be exponentionally harder to do so in the preppers dream world of "who was nothing will become everything".

I'd also argue that in such a dystopian world the value of precious metals go DOWN relatively to essential goods, not up. Proven by Russian revolution and civil war of 1917-1921, Holodomor in Ukraine in 1932-1933, various occupied territories in WWII, etc. when someting that used to be worth a small fortune before SHTF was being exchanged literally for a loaf of bread. So the time to AMASS precious metals is AFTER SHTF, not in preparation for it.

RWSGFY says

a dystopian world the value of precious metals go DOWN relatively to essential goods,

That is what I figured in a Mad Max Road Warrior type world, or something like out of the movie The Road. What is of value that is tangible are based on basic survival like canned food, drinkable water, water treatment chemicals, egg laying chickens, first aid kit, bullets and guns,etc.

Intangible value are skill sets like being able to fix things in the homestead, micro farming skills, medical skills, etc.

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NuttBoxer says

I assume this is not serious. If you haven't prepared your defense, you are buying for someone else.

Read Selco, the guy who survived a city in the Yugoslav war with massive shortages, blockades, and gangs running the show.

https://www.amazon.com/Dark-Secrets-SHTF-Survival-Violence/dp/1792159226

Seeds, canned food, cleaning supplies (!!!), water containers.

RWSGFY says

I don't see the correlation. It's perfectly normal to have shelter, food and means to defend yourself but no precious metals (not counting the wedding ring).

I don't know many people capable of being self-sufficient, or in possession of a place they can easily defend. The ones I do know aren't stopping there.

RWSGFY says

It is burdersome to check precious metals for purity now, it will be exponentionally harder to do so in the preppers dream world of "who was nothing will become everything".

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This is literally half the reason they serve as the only real currency, precise measurement. The other half is inability to create. And again, the reason you hold is for rebuilding the world, not surviving economic collapse. Although there are certainly scenarios that make sense when shit is going down, quickly obtaining transportation, bribing your way through checkpoints. Before chaos really ensues.

RWSGFY says

when someting that used to be worth a small fortune before SHTF was being exchanged literally for a loaf of bread.

So you've got the defensible shelter, the ammo, the guns, the rations, the water, the clothes. Now what? Just keep amassing paper you know will become worthless any day? Why is it so hard for you to conceive some of us are already planning past survival?

RWSGFY says

So the time to AMASS precious metals is AFTER SHTF, not in preparation for it.

With what? My paper currency won't be worth shit, so I'm not fucking holding that. And I've already prepped for the rest. Why are you against people wanting to do better than just survive?

AmericanKulak says

Read Selco

Selco will look like a holiday compared to what's coming. This isn't one city, or even one country, it's going to be every country, city, town, neighborhood, and home that is incapable of being completely self-reliant for at least 3-6 months.

If you're still on step 1, survival prep, you better fucking put it into high gear. At this point you should be almost done, and well into step 2, planning for the rebuild.

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good website based on Rich Wicks comments: https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-gold-price-and-u-s-debt-1970-2023/

speaking of precious metals,

1) SPDR Gold Trust is still at 2011 levels :-/

2) and worse as far as possible market manipulation, the iShares Silver Trust is about 40% of 2011 levels :-(

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The idea of surviving 6 months sitting on a bag of beans and a box of gold bricks with a shotgun in a suburban house amid total societal collapse is a fun excercuse in mental masturbation, but it's unrealistic unless you are a member of a group able to take and control ground the size if small town or at least a subdivision. One guy with an AR-15 and his wife with a shotgun will hold their shack with beans and gold bricks piled inside against a determined squad-sized band of attackers for maybe 2-3 hours. Maybe. There will be no rebuilding with gold bricks after that. So if you are not a part of a group, you are not really as prepared as you think you are.

RWSGFY says

The idea of surviving 6 months sitting on a bag of beans and a box of gold bricks with a shotgun in a suburban house amid total societal collapse is a fun excercuse in mental masturbation,

I agree as I would rather be in a rural area with neighbors I trust and who would form an armed posse to protect the neighborhood.

And I would want multiple water sources within that neighborhood as well as food sources like chickens and 5 years worth of chicken feed (corn, grain, etc.).

If you aquafarm Tilapia, the fish can survive just on algae. And the Tilpia waste can be used as fertilizer for hydroponic vegetables and fruits.

The neighborhood would have to create its own self-sustained society. I agree as shiny things like precious metals will have no value in such societal long term chaotic conditions.

It would take at least 10 years for the USA to stabilize and turn itself around if the modernized world was to reach that level of chaos, and beyond Selco in the old Yugoslavia during the 1990s.

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I watched an interview of a guy stuck in a house in a large city during the Bosnia Hertz war for a year. He claimed that he only survived because he had 15 armed people in his house, would go out in small teams at night and barter for shit.

His best barter items were refillable butane lighters and he had a large tank of gas. He'd tell them if they needed a refill to meet him somewhere and he'd return the next day with a refill.

Guns and bullets being the other thing that was tradable for life saving items.

Every time they went out at night they'd be careful to take a route that they hadn't taken before as much as possible.

I'm not sure why people think gold and silver are only used during cannibal anarchy. They've served a money since the beginning of time. When countries thrived it was always due to real money(gold, silver) based economy. I can tell you who will be looking to acquire more gold and silver during a collapse, people who are prepared, will easily survive the collapse, and are already thinking about what happens when we rebuild. That's when I plan to use mine. After the worst of it, when everything will be dirt cheap, and most people won't have any means of purchase.

NuttBoxer says

I can tell you who will be looking to acquire more gold and silver during a collapse, people who are prepared, will easily survive the collapse, and are already thinking about what happens when we rebuild.

When society collapses, people's mindset will be so desperate that the only fungible currency will be survival-related goods like canned food, medicine, etc. as well as service bartering which depend on valuable skills like first aid, carpentry, mechanical repair, chicken farming, etc.

When society starts to recover, then expect a new currency by a new stable government which will repeat of the paper or fiat currency cycle.

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@ad is correct, I found that guy I mentioned above. Not the in person video that I saw years ago but essentially the same story: https://cats2010.com/interview-with-a-bosnian-survivalist/

I forgot about cheap whiskey also being a good barter item!

Here are some links related to if society collapses

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Redoubt

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Wesley_Rawles#Tools_For_Survival

The communities that stick together will survive together. They will ensure water and food supply as well as basic needs like shelter and medical care, and will provide their own police security force.

It won't be precious metals that would be valued, but anything tied to food, water, shelter, security and medicine. Basic and advanced skills will be valued from fixing shelters to medical doctor services.

Bartering may be a major factor in the local economy (i.e., exchange of goods and services).

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just_passing_through says

I forgot about cheap whiskey also being a good barter item!

Why, because no one ever has any left?

ad says

When society starts to recover, then expect a new currency by a new stable government which will repeat of the paper or fiat currency cycle.

Absolutely not. You don't seem to understand that everything happening with the fiat system for the last 50 years is completely unprecedented in world history. Either they keep it going long enough to lock us into perpetual slavery using CBDC, or everything collapses, never to be rebuilt, at least not for many generations to come. You see, those of us prepared don't want the old systems back, and will not support it. And since we'll be the only ones with any purchasing power, they'll stay dead. For a good example on a smaller scale read about what happened in the United States after the Revolution.

Again, gold and silver are the only real money that has ever existed, and the only thing that will be accepted once we start rebuilding. People won't trade whisky and cigarettes forever. Don't just plan to survive, plan to thrive.