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housing prices peak 2
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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm 601,876 views 5,636 comments
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3935
WookieMan
2023 Dec 12, 10:12am
WookieMan
2023 Dec 12, 10:12am
AmericanKulak says
They're not building them, so not sure what they'd downsize to. The values can't go down in most locations. You have a bigger generation with buying power regardless of interest rates and an aging demo that doesn't want to move OR still has the kids living with them.
I'm a geezer millennial. All my closest friends own their homes. 90%. Most of their parents, Boomers have already downsized. Many in my circle are wealthy and their parents just keep their family home. No one is selling. With low interest rates locked in, it's cheaper to keep the house and get hired help for the Boomers.
If you have a daughter that's lost with no career ambition, have them get in the home healthcare business. Boomers aren't moving. They'll stay home. They're stubborn as fuck. That's something people overlook. Between commissions, cost of moving, hassle Boomers simply aren't moving into assisted living and probably won't. Maybe in 10-15 years once they approach 80-90, but it's not happening any time soon. Just wait for the reverse mortgage wave. That's coming in a big way.
If you are long SFH or are considering downsizing, do it right now before it's too late.
They're not building them, so not sure what they'd downsize to. The values can't go down in most locations. You have a bigger generation with buying power regardless of interest rates and an aging demo that doesn't want to move OR still has the kids living with them.
I'm a geezer millennial. All my closest friends own their homes. 90%. Most of their parents, Boomers have already downsized. Many in my circle are wealthy and their parents just keep their family home. No one is selling. With low interest rates locked in, it's cheaper to keep the house and get hired help for the Boomers.
If you have a daughter that's lost with no career ambition, have them get in the home healthcare business. Boomers aren't moving. They'll stay home. They're stubborn as fuck. That's something people overlook. Between commissions, cost of moving, hassle Boomers simply aren't moving into assisted living and probably won't. Maybe in 10-15 years once they approach 80-90, but it's not happening any time soon. Just wait for the reverse mortgage wave. That's coming in a big way.
3936
GNL
2023 Dec 12, 11:13am
GNL
2023 Dec 12, 11:13am
My 78 year old mother in law is selling and purchasing another SFH. We're trying to convince her to purchase a condo but, nope.
3939
AD
2023 Dec 12, 4:55pm
AD
2023 Dec 12, 4:55pm
EBGuy says
That's mainly because the 30 yr mortgage rate is at least 7.25%.
.
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/rent-or-buy-home-mortgage/
That's mainly because the 30 yr mortgage rate is at least 7.25%.
.
3940
HeadSet
2023 Dec 12, 6:11pm
HeadSet
2023 Dec 12, 6:11pm
GNL says
Why? If you are worried about upkeep, lawn service is cheap.
My 78 year old mother in law is selling and purchasing another SFH. We're trying to convince her to purchase a condo but, nope.
Why? If you are worried about upkeep, lawn service is cheap.
3941
AD
2023 Dec 12, 7:07pm
AD
2023 Dec 12, 7:07pm
HeadSet says
The problem is that the HOA fees may be very expensive making it not economically better to live in a condo or townhome.
Even if the HOA board and the management company are not corrupt, it may not be competent as far as gaining the best value for the community.
I rather live in a gated community with very little HOA fees. I would rather have a single detached home that I would maintain in a gated community and HOA.
.
GNL says
My 78 year old mother in law is selling and purchasing another SFH. We're trying to convince her to purchase a condo but, nope.
Why? If you are worried about upkeep, lawn service is cheap.
The problem is that the HOA fees may be very expensive making it not economically better to live in a condo or townhome.
Even if the HOA board and the management company are not corrupt, it may not be competent as far as gaining the best value for the community.
I rather live in a gated community with very little HOA fees. I would rather have a single detached home that I would maintain in a gated community and HOA.
.
3942
GNL
2023 Dec 12, 7:57pm
GNL
2023 Dec 12, 7:57pm
HeadSet says
Snow. She's moving to PA. Most of her family is in NY. Condo seems safer?
GNL says
My 78 year old mother in law is selling and purchasing another SFH. We're trying to convince her to purchase a condo but, nope.
Why? If you are worried about upkeep, lawn service is cheap.
Snow. She's moving to PA. Most of her family is in NY. Condo seems safer?
3943
WookieMan
2023 Dec 12, 9:28pm
WookieMan
2023 Dec 12, 9:28pm
GNL says
I'll be blunt. Does it matter? Older people are stubborn. You and I will be stubborn when we get old. Once you hit 60 you know your time is limited and you say fuck it. You don't care what other people think. You don't want to have a adult sitter for yourself. You think you can still do it and just don't care anymore.
I wouldn't fight the battle. Unless worried about having to manage the home yourself and they don't have the money. Otherwise it's not difficult to make phone calls and have people manage the snow and lawn and other issues that come up. The alternative of pushing someone to live in a place they don't want to is likely worse. My 2¢.
HeadSet says
GNL says
My 78 year old mother in law is selling and purchasing another SFH. We're trying to convince her to purchase a condo but, nope.
Why? If you are worried about upkeep, lawn service is cheap.
Snow. She's moving to PA. Most of her family is in NY. Condo seems safer?
I'll be blunt. Does it matter? Older people are stubborn. You and I will be stubborn when we get old. Once you hit 60 you know your time is limited and you say fuck it. You don't care what other people think. You don't want to have a adult sitter for yourself. You think you can still do it and just don't care anymore.
I wouldn't fight the battle. Unless worried about having to manage the home yourself and they don't have the money. Otherwise it's not difficult to make phone calls and have people manage the snow and lawn and other issues that come up. The alternative of pushing someone to live in a place they don't want to is likely worse. My 2¢.
3945
AD
2023 Dec 12, 10:14pm
AD
2023 Dec 12, 10:14pm
Best to live together in a multi generational house. Save money and be able to look out for each other.
The Asians are very adept at this.
.
The Asians are very adept at this.
.
3946
GNL
2023 Dec 13, 3:26am
GNL
2023 Dec 13, 3:26am
ad says
I suggested she do that with her oldest son. Nope. And she keeps talking about how she's going to leave a bunch of $$ to her kids. Nope, it will all be eaten up for medical expenses. Not complaining, just making observations.
Best to live together in a multi generational house. Save money and be able to look out for each other.
The Asians are very adept at this.
.
I suggested she do that with her oldest son. Nope. And she keeps talking about how she's going to leave a bunch of $$ to her kids. Nope, it will all be eaten up for medical expenses. Not complaining, just making observations.
3947
WookieMan
2023 Dec 13, 7:05am
WookieMan
2023 Dec 13, 7:05am
ad says
Couldn't do it. Have done it. I can't live with other people that aren't my kids or wife. Stupid shit is picked up on. I've done it with my parents and my wife's parents for literally 3 months a piece and couldn't stand it during the housing crash. Everything is hyper analyzed about your lifestyle. How you raise kids. The food you make. How you treat your spouse. You have roomates that are more judgmental than a college roomate. The list goes on.
I get the idea, but it doesn't work if you want to be happy. Asians can do it all they want, but realistically, if they're being honest, they're not happy. You need your own home. I'll even go further and say it has to be a detached home that you don't share walls with anyone, HOA and all the bull shit that comes with that if you go the condo route. Maybe a family compound with separate structures on acreage, but you cannot and should not live within the same walls as family 100%. It's toxic. Anyone that says it isn't is lying and someone you shouldn't trust moving forward.
Best to live together in a multi generational house. Save money and be able to look out for each other.
The Asians are very adept at this.
.
Couldn't do it. Have done it. I can't live with other people that aren't my kids or wife. Stupid shit is picked up on. I've done it with my parents and my wife's parents for literally 3 months a piece and couldn't stand it during the housing crash. Everything is hyper analyzed about your lifestyle. How you raise kids. The food you make. How you treat your spouse. You have roomates that are more judgmental than a college roomate. The list goes on.
I get the idea, but it doesn't work if you want to be happy. Asians can do it all they want, but realistically, if they're being honest, they're not happy. You need your own home. I'll even go further and say it has to be a detached home that you don't share walls with anyone, HOA and all the bull shit that comes with that if you go the condo route. Maybe a family compound with separate structures on acreage, but you cannot and should not live within the same walls as family 100%. It's toxic. Anyone that says it isn't is lying and someone you shouldn't trust moving forward.
3948
Blue
2023 Dec 13, 8:10am
WookieMan says
In old times, yes with compromises. But not now in most of the case.
Asians can do it all they want, but realistically, if they're being honest, they're not happy.
In old times, yes with compromises. But not now in most of the case.
3949
WookieMan
2023 Dec 13, 9:15am
WookieMan
2023 Dec 13, 9:15am
Blue says
There's certain things you cannot compromise is the problem. We aren't loud, but I'm going to have sex with my wife and not worry about it. I'm going to watch a movie with the sound cranked. My kid acts up I'm going to chew his ass out without Grandma trying to intervene. Don't do this anymore, but have 6 beers and yell at the TV during a sports event, get over it. Then you have to deal with their shit. It's 100% toxic.
You lose all freedom when you live with other people regardless of it being parents or siblings. It's tough enough with a spouse and kids. I ain't adding my parents or anyone else into the mix. People need freedom. That's also why cities suck ass. You're surrounded by fucking morons.
WookieMan says
Asians can do it all they want, but realistically, if they're being honest, they're not happy.
In old times, yes with compromises. But not now in most of the case.
There's certain things you cannot compromise is the problem. We aren't loud, but I'm going to have sex with my wife and not worry about it. I'm going to watch a movie with the sound cranked. My kid acts up I'm going to chew his ass out without Grandma trying to intervene. Don't do this anymore, but have 6 beers and yell at the TV during a sports event, get over it. Then you have to deal with their shit. It's 100% toxic.
You lose all freedom when you live with other people regardless of it being parents or siblings. It's tough enough with a spouse and kids. I ain't adding my parents or anyone else into the mix. People need freedom. That's also why cities suck ass. You're surrounded by fucking morons.
3951
GNL
2023 Dec 14, 8:02pm
GNL
2023 Dec 14, 8:02pm
The_Deplorable says
90%? I guess so. I compared 7.77% 30 year fixed to 3.5% 30 year fixed and, yeah, almost double. Damn.
90%? I guess so. I compared 7.77% 30 year fixed to 3.5% 30 year fixed and, yeah, almost double. Damn.
3952
AD
2023 Dec 15, 4:28pm
AD
2023 Dec 15, 4:28pm
https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-home-prices-outlook-2024-mortgage-rates-inventory-zillow-2023-12
Home prices are getting slashed as inventory climbs and high mortgage rates push sellers to compete for buyers, Zillow says
Home prices are getting slashed at an unusual pace, thanks to a recent surge in inventory and still-high mortgage rates pushing sellers to compete for buyers, according to Zillow economists.
The share of listings on the market that saw a price cut in November was 22.6%, down slightly from October's 25% rate but still abnormally high for this time of year, the real estate listings site said in its monthly housing market update on Monday.
"Price cuts are more common than normal – chances are good that prices are negotiable," Zillow said.
The trend likely reflects sellers trying to attract buyers, who had largely been shut out of the housing market as mortgage rates soared.
Home prices are getting slashed as inventory climbs and high mortgage rates push sellers to compete for buyers, Zillow says
Home prices are getting slashed at an unusual pace, thanks to a recent surge in inventory and still-high mortgage rates pushing sellers to compete for buyers, according to Zillow economists.
The share of listings on the market that saw a price cut in November was 22.6%, down slightly from October's 25% rate but still abnormally high for this time of year, the real estate listings site said in its monthly housing market update on Monday.
"Price cuts are more common than normal – chances are good that prices are negotiable," Zillow said.
The trend likely reflects sellers trying to attract buyers, who had largely been shut out of the housing market as mortgage rates soared.
3953
WookieMan
2023 Dec 15, 4:38pm
WookieMan
2023 Dec 15, 4:38pm
ad says
The price cuts are on shit houses likely owned by losers that didn't maintain them. The housing inventory is shit. It's no surprise people are cutting prices. Anyone that bought in the past 15 years at this point is locked into a low interest rate. McMansions are no longer a trend and they aren't building new houses anyway. The stuff for sale is shit where I've looked and that's multiple states and territories.
Zillow is in the business of getting listing leads for people to sell houses. And also buy houses based on their leads. I can't think of a more biased, bull shit source. Anecdotal data matters. The housing bust hype won't materialize. It's click bait. Rates will drop and prices will go sideways in almost all markets. We're not in a boom or bust cycle. I think it will be 5 years before it moves one way or another substantially in the macro. Micro like SF, LA, NYC maybe ATL I could see losses.
The trend likely reflects sellers trying to attract buyers, who had largely been shut out of the housing market as mortgage rates soared.
The price cuts are on shit houses likely owned by losers that didn't maintain them. The housing inventory is shit. It's no surprise people are cutting prices. Anyone that bought in the past 15 years at this point is locked into a low interest rate. McMansions are no longer a trend and they aren't building new houses anyway. The stuff for sale is shit where I've looked and that's multiple states and territories.
Zillow is in the business of getting listing leads for people to sell houses. And also buy houses based on their leads. I can't think of a more biased, bull shit source. Anecdotal data matters. The housing bust hype won't materialize. It's click bait. Rates will drop and prices will go sideways in almost all markets. We're not in a boom or bust cycle. I think it will be 5 years before it moves one way or another substantially in the macro. Micro like SF, LA, NYC maybe ATL I could see losses.
3954
FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden
2023 Dec 15, 8:48pm
i’m looking for another rental or investment opportunity if anyone here is looking for partnership. $500k to invest here.
3955
Eman
2023 Dec 15, 9:45pm
Eman
2023 Dec 15, 9:45pm
FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says
Put the money in Fidelity or one of the banks and collect 4.5-5% yield/interest while you’re looking for the opportunity. That’s what I would do. I would say more opportunities will likely arise sometime next year. If not, I would wait for the next recession. Don’t rush if there’s no good deal.
i’m looking for another rental or investment opportunity if anyone here is looking for partnership. $500k to invest here.
Put the money in Fidelity or one of the banks and collect 4.5-5% yield/interest while you’re looking for the opportunity. That’s what I would do. I would say more opportunities will likely arise sometime next year. If not, I would wait for the next recession. Don’t rush if there’s no good deal.
3957
AD
2023 Dec 19, 11:04am
AD
2023 Dec 19, 11:04am
.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-12-19/us-new-housing-starts-hit-six-month-high-video
US New Housing Starts Hit Six-Month High
Bloomberg MarketsTV Shows
December 19th, 2023, 10:05 AM CST
US new-home construction unexpectedly surged in November to a six-month high, benefiting from a dearth of existing houses on the market and suggesting the crunch in residential real estate is easing. Mark Rayfield, Saint-Gobain North America CEO, says they are still optimistic about the market. (Source: Bloomberg)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-12-19/us-new-housing-starts-hit-six-month-high-video
US New Housing Starts Hit Six-Month High
Bloomberg MarketsTV Shows
December 19th, 2023, 10:05 AM CST
US new-home construction unexpectedly surged in November to a six-month high, benefiting from a dearth of existing houses on the market and suggesting the crunch in residential real estate is easing. Mark Rayfield, Saint-Gobain North America CEO, says they are still optimistic about the market. (Source: Bloomberg)
3958
FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden
2023 Dec 19, 11:38am
i don’t know how it’ll be in california, probably will go up forever. but out here in ID it’ll collapse like a brick once blue state exodus stops. nothing happens here, just construction and farming.
3959
AD
2023 Dec 19, 12:03pm
AD
2023 Dec 19, 12:03pm
FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says
Depends on demographics in California such as number of qualified white collar and skilled blue collar versus the supply of homes.
Are Hollywood and Silicon Valley employment rolls increasing and are they compensating a lot to sustain the trends in California home prices ?
Another factor is if foreign buyers with cash are still interested in buying a home in California.
https://www.newsweek.com/california-home-sales-crash-lowest-level-16-years-1853707
.
i don’t know how it’ll be in california, probably will go up forever.
Depends on demographics in California such as number of qualified white collar and skilled blue collar versus the supply of homes.
Are Hollywood and Silicon Valley employment rolls increasing and are they compensating a lot to sustain the trends in California home prices ?
Another factor is if foreign buyers with cash are still interested in buying a home in California.
https://www.newsweek.com/california-home-sales-crash-lowest-level-16-years-1853707
.
3961
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2023 Dec 19, 12:35pm
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2023 Dec 19, 12:35pm
ad says
Indians have replaced the Chinese now as those with cash from Corrupt Mommy & Daddy* Back Home driving up prices here.
* Indian co-worker bragged to me about all the bribes paid for gold his judge daddy had stashed in the house. Then it got ripped off (obviously an inside job with the servants) and so dad told him he'll have to wait a few more years to buy a house in SV.
Depends on demographics in California such as number of qualified white collar and skilled blue collar versus the supply of homes.
Are Hollywood and Silicon Valley employment rolls increasing and are they compensating a lot to sustain the trends in California home prices ?
Another factor is if foreign buyers with cash are still interested in buying a home in California.
Indians have replaced the Chinese now as those with cash from Corrupt Mommy & Daddy* Back Home driving up prices here.
* Indian co-worker bragged to me about all the bribes paid for gold his judge daddy had stashed in the house. Then it got ripped off (obviously an inside job with the servants) and so dad told him he'll have to wait a few more years to buy a house in SV.
3962
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2023 Dec 21, 10:40am
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2023 Dec 21, 10:40am
I've been seeing a lot of this in LV lately. Esp with the high end properties. This one is the most extreme, tho. $10 mill drop.
3963
WookieMan
2023 Dec 21, 10:49am
WookieMan
2023 Dec 21, 10:49am
PumpingRedheads says
Might be a long shot. Money laundering? That makes no sense to list it that high and cut it that much.
I've been seeing a lot of this in LV lately. Esp with the high end properties. This one is the most extreme, tho. $10 mill drop.
Might be a long shot. Money laundering? That makes no sense to list it that high and cut it that much.
3964
AD
2023 Dec 21, 12:44pm
AD
2023 Dec 21, 12:44pm
PumpingRedheads says
The poor tech Indians live in these units.
.
,
Indians have replaced the Chinese now as those with cash from Corrupt Mommy & Daddy* Back Home driving up prices here.
The poor tech Indians live in these units.
.
,
3965
AD
2023 Dec 21, 12:47pm
AD
2023 Dec 21, 12:47pm
.
https://studyfinds.org/cheapest-places-to-live/
Hickory, NC and Jackson, MS are among the cheapest places to live
.
https://studyfinds.org/cheapest-places-to-live/
Hickory, NC and Jackson, MS are among the cheapest places to live
.
3966
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2023 Dec 21, 1:33pm
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2023 Dec 21, 1:33pm
WookieMan says
Looking at a 23,000 square foot mansion in Chattanooga that took 7 years to build for $40 million. Now selling for $16 million. With 'furnishings collected from around the world' $19 million.
I am thinking that highly leveraged ritzies are now under increased financial stress thanks to the interest rates spiking. Either personally or their businesses or both. So, fire sale city!
PumpingRedheads says
I've been seeing a lot of this in LV lately. Esp with the high end properties. This one is the most extreme, tho. $10 mill drop.
Might be a long shot. Money laundering? That makes no sense to list it that high and cut it that much.
Looking at a 23,000 square foot mansion in Chattanooga that took 7 years to build for $40 million. Now selling for $16 million. With 'furnishings collected from around the world' $19 million.
I am thinking that highly leveraged ritzies are now under increased financial stress thanks to the interest rates spiking. Either personally or their businesses or both. So, fire sale city!
3967
GNL
2023 Dec 21, 2:59pm
GNL
2023 Dec 21, 2:59pm
I just looked at that house. Wow, pretty sweet. I bet it would be a non-stop upkeep nighmare though.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6500-Solitude-Dr-Chattanooga-TN-37416/41402303_zpid/
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6500-Solitude-Dr-Chattanooga-TN-37416/41402303_zpid/
3968
WookieMan
2023 Dec 21, 3:06pm
WookieMan
2023 Dec 21, 3:06pm
ad says
I've hyped MS here before. Get on a lake in a not ghetto neighborhood and it's no different than Georgia, if not better and cheaper. Just know you're gonna deal with blacks if that ain't your jam. I'll be honest most are the good blacks coming from Chicagoland myself. Most people are scared of black peeople. I'd retire in a heart beat down there within in 2 hours drive of the coast. You could do it for next to nothing and not have a neighbor near you.
.
https://studyfinds.org/cheapest-places-to-live/
Hickory, NC and Jackson, MS are among the cheapest places to live
.
I've hyped MS here before. Get on a lake in a not ghetto neighborhood and it's no different than Georgia, if not better and cheaper. Just know you're gonna deal with blacks if that ain't your jam. I'll be honest most are the good blacks coming from Chicagoland myself. Most people are scared of black peeople. I'd retire in a heart beat down there within in 2 hours drive of the coast. You could do it for next to nothing and not have a neighbor near you.
3969
GNL
2023 Dec 21, 3:10pm
GNL
2023 Dec 21, 3:10pm
There are plenty of good black folk. The city turns lots of people into shit. IMO
3970
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2023 Dec 21, 4:05pm
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2023 Dec 21, 4:05pm
GNL says
It's got a utilidor tunnel under it. Like the ones under Disneyland.
Hate to think what it would cost to replace the roof, tho.
I just looked at that house. Wow, pretty sweet. I bet it would be a non-stop upkeep nighmare though.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6500-Solitude-Dr-Chattanooga-TN-37416/41402303_zpid/
It's got a utilidor tunnel under it. Like the ones under Disneyland.
Hate to think what it would cost to replace the roof, tho.
3971
WookieMan
2023 Dec 21, 7:39pm
WookieMan
2023 Dec 21, 7:39pm
GNL says
For sure. I've stated here probably 50 times at least get the fuck away from cities. It's only going to get worse. White, black, brown, yellow, whatever.
Rural blacks in mostly white communities thrive. That's including white trash trailer park type areas. Until blacks get back to family structure they're doomed. White folks are going down the same route of no family structure. The internet and social media have been a blessing but I'd argue more of a fucking disaster for everyone. People that get married, have kids, educate themselves are racists. It's a losing proposition to be white or black if it's against the agenda.
There are plenty of good black folk. The city turns lots of people into shit. IMO
For sure. I've stated here probably 50 times at least get the fuck away from cities. It's only going to get worse. White, black, brown, yellow, whatever.
Rural blacks in mostly white communities thrive. That's including white trash trailer park type areas. Until blacks get back to family structure they're doomed. White folks are going down the same route of no family structure. The internet and social media have been a blessing but I'd argue more of a fucking disaster for everyone. People that get married, have kids, educate themselves are racists. It's a losing proposition to be white or black if it's against the agenda.
3972
WookieMan
2023 Dec 21, 7:51pm
WookieMan
2023 Dec 21, 7:51pm
Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house.
3973
BigSky
2023 Dec 22, 6:47am
WookieMan says
Whatever keeps the wife happy.
Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house.
Whatever keeps the wife happy.
3974
BigSky
2023 Dec 22, 6:50am
WookieMan says
We can't all afford a slave.
Sorry, I scan this blog and found that straight line too "Johnny Carson" to resist making jokes.
Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house.
We can't all afford a slave.
Sorry, I scan this blog and found that straight line too "Johnny Carson" to resist making jokes.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net
Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.
Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.