patrick.net

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/12/20/here-come-the-new-listings-of-existing-homes-prices-drop-further-demand-remains-at-collapsed-levels/

Here Come the New Listings of Existing Homes, Prices Drop Further, Demand Remains at Collapsed Levels

zzyzzx says

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/12/20/here-come-the-new-listings-of-existing-homes-prices-drop-further-demand-remains-at-collapsed-levels/

Here Come the New Listings of Existing Homes, Prices Drop Further, Demand Remains at Collapsed Levels

Yeah Wolfman @ Wolf Street has been rightfully warning about asset inflation and bubbles.

I figure housing should be around $340,000 based on the upper and lower trend lines.
.

BigSky says

WookieMan says

Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house.

Whatever keeps the wife happy.

The black person is a child. I assume this is a joke?. I don't care, just pointing it out. Frankly don't understand what this has to do with my wife?

What's BigSky? You from Montana? I really don't get this comment overall. Or are you trolling?

WookieMan says

The black person is a child.

How many times have you posted bail for it?

WookieMan says

I assume this is a joke?

Yes. Duh.

zzyzzx says

WookieMan says

The black person is a child.

How many times have you posted bail for it?

I get this is a joke or assume as much. Zero. And it will stay zero.

WookieMan says

Zero. And it will stay zero.

Yes, because Illinois passed a no cash bail law.

Just adding to the jokes, here. Your statement about a Black in your house just opened the door for a few Patnetters to take the Mickey. All in fun and not serious. You know, like your advice on not letting the Tucker-Rock Bud Light bit bother anyone. Better than being ignored.

WookieMan says

Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house.

.



,

HeadSet says

You know, like your advice on not letting the Tucker-Rock Bud Light bit bother anyone.

Advice??? I really don't understand the issue. I know what happened. Don't drink Bud Light. Don't pay for Kid Rock music. I really don't get what's so hard about that? It's petty to continue to bitch and whine about it. Kid Rock, John Daley and Tucker had a fucking hilarious conversation.

I doubt he does any, but I could be pumping Hunter Biden on a podcast, a real criminal. Rock flip flopped on a beer brand marketing gimmick...... and...? I don't like his music. It was financially motivated likely. He has a family. Anyone that wouldn't do something legal but looks wrong to make money for their family is a fucking liar. He didn't harm anyone and again, you don't have to buy Bud or buy Rock's music.

We got to stop getting butt hurt about stupid shit that a vocal minority brings up to get attention. Gays, trans, BLM, etc. Kid Rock fucked up and would have been better to ignore and stay out of the situation completely. But now people are butt hurt about my post. WTF?? Do you guys not see what is happening? It's a domino effect. Kid Rock does something, you complain about it, your brother does and all it is doing is giving attention to something we should have just ignored. Now this trans fag or whatever it is gets all the attention. You lost. You just don't know it. And the freak won.

Let the gays and weirdos have their fun. We can stop it. When we give it attention all we do is help it get more.

ad says

Yeah Wolfman Wolf Street has been rightfully warning about asset inflation and bubbles.

I figure housing should be around $340,000 based on the upper and lower trend lines.
.

Housing would drop from peak $415,000 to $340,000 which is about a 18% drop. For every 1% increase in the 30 year mortgage rate, housing prices should drop 10% based on mortgage affordability standards.

Peak prices generally were set around early 2022 and incomes/wages have increased in 2022 and 2023 to catch up with housing costs.

So if the 30 year mortgage rate steadies around 5.5%, then housing will be in the best affordability range at least since early 2022.

Recall that the 30 year mortgage rate was around 3.75% when housing prices were starting to peak.

Buy down 4 discount points at a cost of 4% of the mortgage to reduce the 30 year mortgage rate from 5.5% to 4.5%. That is a great deal cause a 1% drop in the 30 year mortgage rate is equivalent of lowering the price by 10%.

I think you'll see a lot more sellers putting their homes on the market when rates steady below 6% and they'll offer incentives like buying discount points for the buyer.
,

WookieMan says

Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house.

how do keep your bikes from disappearing?

WookieMan says

Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house

Did you call the police?

WookieMan says

Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house.

How much have home values dropped in your neighborhood?

In this country, the Case Shiller index rose 4.8% year over year in October. Yes, that was back when the 30 year mortgage was 8%.

Case Shiller measures the increase/decrease in the price of the same properties after factoring out improvements. It is not a timely report coming out a few months after the fact, but it is the most reliable gauge of home prices.

There is simply no inventory of properties for sale, and the ones that do pop up are crap. There is no imperative to sell, with most homes with a mortgage being refinanced at about 3%. We will see what next year brings maybe there will be more forced sales, but maybe lower rates to offset. We will see.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/26/sp-case-shiller-october-home-prices-post-biggest-gain-of-2023.html

I get the jokes guys. But for the first time on this site I am actually offended. He's my son at this point. I suppose I regret ever bringing it up. Whatever. I know some users better here now is all moving forward.

WookieMan says

I get the jokes guys. But for the first time on this site I am actually offended. He's my son at this point. I suppose I regret ever bringing it up. Whatever. I know some users better here now is all moving forward.

I apologize. It was in jest.

GNL says

WookieMan says

I get the jokes guys. But for the first time on this site I am actually offended. He's my son at this point. I suppose I regret ever bringing it up. Whatever. I know some users better here now is all moving forward.

I apologize. It was in jest.

Thank you for apologizing. I appreciate it. The black stereotypes are generally true, so I won't fault people even though I brought it up. Just hits home for me is all. I don't think anyone here has walked around with a black kid daily. People are fucked up is all I'll say.

WookieMan says

I get the jokes guys. But for the first time on this site I am actually offended. He's my son at this point. I suppose I regret ever bringing it up. Whatever. I know some users better here now is all moving forward.

didn’t mean to hurt you man, it’s just jokes. jokes not to be taken seriously. kinda how dave chapelle jokes about “whites”, it’s still just jokes.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

kinda how dave chapelle jokes about “whites”, it’s still just jokes.

True. No one cares if whites are made fun of. Seems that way. But since it was aimed at you, your son and your comment, my apology stands.

If there is one good thing about you @wookie it's taking that kid in. Now if I could only convince my 25 year old nephew that fast food isn't a career...

(I thought the jokes were funny though; in the 80s and 90s here in Texas people could joke about each other like that without anyone getting bent. Except for my redneck friends when they were drunk)

just_passing_through says

If there is one good thing about you wookie it's taking that kid in. Now if I could only convince my 25 year old nephew that fast food isn't a career...

(I thought the jokes were funny though; in the 80s and 90s here in Texas people could joke about each other like that without anyone getting bent. Except for my redneck friends when they were drunk)

remembering america when no one’s first thought was i”am i offending anyone right now”. used to be more honest.

just_passing_through says

If there is one good thing about you wookie it's taking that kid in. Now if I could only convince my 25 year old nephew that fast food isn't a career...

(I thought the jokes were funny though; in the 80s and 90s here in Texas people could joke about each other like that without anyone getting bent. Except for my redneck friends when they were drunk)

It was the context of the jokes I guess. I have no issue with jokes about race or any of that. I'm not a butt hurt leftie. It's just what I live is all. 95% of it is great, but there's still a negative element out there that give us the side eye or even say things to us that are disrespectful. It's upsetting to be honest.

I've been to a decent amount of trailer parks in rural IL full of white trash. I've had more stuff stolen from me by white people than black. Inner city blacks are for sure a problem. There are problems everywhere. I guess my upset was that skin color does not matter (even though I brought it up).

It's having a man or father around and a good wife. My nephew is loved in our community. And maybe it's sympathy to the situation, but I do feel it's genuine. He won't be a bad black and I agree with jokes, but not on my watch that's for sure. Nor will my boys be white trash doing meth and stealing from people. It's parenting and family in the end. Your core family should be your religion. Love my mom and sister, but the people living under my roof are people I'll die for. So I got slightly offended.

We need to get off this tangent though. This is a housing thread. Black kid with white family shouldn't derail this. My fault admittedly.

Interest rates will go to 3% and housing will jump another 10%. Who's next?

WookieMan says

Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house.

Do they at least shoplift for the whole family?

https://www.readtrung.com/p/9-best-things-of-2023

WookieMan says

Interest rates will go to 3% and housing will jump another 10%. Who's next?

it likely will steady around 5.6%

about 2% above the rate set when prices peaked around March 2022

.

WookieMan says

I get the jokes guys. But for the first time on this site I am actually offended.

I'm gonna defend WookieMan. He seems like a good dude. He's posted in various spots all he's been through with his family drama. He's stepped up big time.

Yes he left the door open, and admittedly I chuckled at a couple of the replies but do we really need to eat our own?

As for housing, rates down slightly (just under 6%), prices up nominally (5%).

You can't squeeze any more blood out of this stone unless real wages go up (not going to happen) or NINJA loans come back. First timers can't get into the market. That bottlenecks everything and limits appreciation. It's even worse than 20 years ago when this blog first started, and it was bad then.

GreaterNYCDude says

You can't squeeze any more blood out of this stone

Yep. I remember our bank telling us the price to income ratio should be no more than 5 when the 30 year mortgage rate is around 3%.

The latest ratio (Sept 2023) is around 7.5 :-/
.



.

Between 1965 and 2000 the home price to income ratio steadied around 4.5

After 2000, it started to increase and remained a lot higher.

.

.

Perhaps this may cause building starts to still remain low.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-outlook-mortgage-home-prices-supply-boomers-2008-crash-2023-12

Home prices will fall as 'silver tsunami' of baby boomers to unload fresh housing supply, top Wall Street forecaster says

"Another major demographic trend you see is the aging of America, what's called the 'silver tsunami', is 10,000 people a day turning 65, and by 2030, the entire baby boomer generation will be over 65," Whitney told Yahoo Finance on Thursday. "That'll be 20% of the US population."

That trend will help bring prices down, as more homes on the market will soften the impact of housing demand, which is a big change compared to the past few years during which a massive supply crunch has helped push housing prices to all-time highs.

ad says

Between 1965 and 2000 the home price to income ratio steadied around 4.5

After 2000, it started to increase and remained a lot higher.

.

Interesting looking at that chart above. I did research during the housing crash, and the home price to income ratio hit 4.5 for our market in February 2009. I told my wife this is the bottom of the housing market. Let me quit my job and give this a try for 3-5 years. If it works out, we’ll be set.

Since, I bought something every year until 2019. There were years I bought 4-5 properties. There were still a lot of skeptics on Patnet especially that Thomas Wrong guy.

During the downturn, SFace bought a handful of houses in Hercules. Iwog bought like 10 properties in Concord and a 2/2 condo in Walnut Creek for $145k. Hindsight is 20/20 of course.

With respect to the aging of America demographic trend, I had a chat with 3 of my neighbors, and this is specifically to the Bay Area. One couple, the daughter and her family will take over their house when they kick the can. The same with the 2nd neighbor. The 3rd neighbor, who is retired, said his daughter will take over grandma’s house when she’s gone. Grandma is 93 now. They will help her buyout uncle’s share. All in all, looks like everyone will keep their low property tax basis. I don’t see a mass of inventory in this landlocked Bay Area. However, rent to own ratio is still way out of whack at the moment.

Eman says

America demographic trend

comes down to ratio of homes to households

also based on how many households live in one home ... so it is about standard of living as well as far as how people live in housing...

I know someone on Long Island, NY that has his home as three housing units under one roof.. its been like that since the 1970s...

he lives in main unit and the other two units (each at least 2 bedrooms/1 bath) are rented ... one rented unit is upstairs and the other is in attached or side unit...

...

If you talk to the workers here, some of them commute 1-1.5 hours one way, each day, to work. For some who works 2-3 days/week (partially work from home/office), they rent a room here and commute home when their work obligation is over. Their homes are about 2 hours away without traffic.

If home prices are “soft” here, I see folks will be moving closer to the Bay Area. Areas going to be impacted are likely farther from the job centers.

Eman says

With respect to the aging of America demographic trend, I had a chat with 3 of my neighbors, and this is specifically to the Bay Area. One couple, the daughter and her family will take over their house when they kick the can. The same with the 2nd neighbor. The 3rd neighbor, who is retired, said his daughter will take over grandma’s house when she’s gone. Grandma is 93 now. They will help her buyout uncle’s share. All in all, looks like everyone will keep their low property tax basis. I don’t see a mass of inventory in this landlocked Bay Area. However, rent to own ratio is still way out of whack at the moment.

I think (not know) people are going to keep their properties in their family. As long as building doesn't pick up, at least in none hipster areas, I can't see prices dropping for the foreseeable future. Kids won't buy new houses they will just take over mom and dads place. And I think that's outside of CA and prop 13 as well.

The transfer of property has changed since 2006 and the low interest rates. Loss of training trades people, so building is generally none existent in most places. Where you build or rehab now it's not cheap and won't pick up. So inventory won't pick up. Most kids now don't even know how to operate a jig saw or miter saw. They know how to operate Fortnight.

I'm pushing the trades and get some business acumen for my kids/nephew. I think college is dead outside of legit STEM degrees. The rest is a waste of time unless you really, really want to be a teacher... said no one after the fact.

I agree. I don’t share the same view as the housing analysts.

Going into trade is not a bad idea. Make decent income without going to college. Locally, plumbers and electricians are billing at $155-$185/hour. 1.5x rate for OT, and 2x for Sunday and holidays.

Own the biz, scale up and have a few tradesmen work for you. Get connection with a few property management companies are the work flow is constant.

WookieMan says

Loss of training trades people, so building is generally none existent in most places.

I see manufacturing "modular homes" at a factory as one current trend. It makes it easier and quicker to build a wood frame home.

This Colorado "modular homes" company has been addressing the housing shortage: https://www.fadingwestdevelopment.com/howwebuild

.

https://www.newsweek.com/california-homeowner-price-cut-joshua-tree-market-crash-1855604

California Homeowner Cuts Price Nearly in Half in 'Brutal' Market
Dec 26, 2023

The housing market has proven to be a tough terrain in Joshua Tree, California, evidenced by a house that sold for $340,000 in December after being purchased for $600,000 in 2021, marking a $240,000 loss.

Initially listed at $625,000 in early 2023, the home, situated east of Los Angeles in the Mojave Desert, saw multiple price reductions over the year, finally settling at $340,000 in December, a 47.3 percent decrease from its 2021 purchase price. The drop in value reflects a "brutal" housing market in Joshua Tree, according to a vacation rental investor on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter.

Patrick says

Joshua Tree, California

https://www.zillow.com/home-values/35723/joshua-tree-ca/

The average Joshua Tree home value is $378,718, down 12.4% over the past year.

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/joshua-tree-ca/

.

ad says

I see manufacturing "modular homes" at a factory as one current trend. It makes it easier and quicker to build a wood frame home.

This Colorado "modular homes" company

Many ADUs are manufactured housing, too.

WookieMan says

I'm pushing the trades and get some business acumen for my kids/nephew.

I agree. I met a young cousin's boyfriend over Christmas. He's 21 and rudderless. He said he "tried" HVAC and "didn't like it". I couldn't help but tell him that I thought he was making a mistake by giving it up.