patrick.net

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Depends on demographics in California such as number of qualified white collar and skilled blue collar versus the supply of homes.

Are Hollywood and Silicon Valley employment rolls increasing and are they compensating a lot to sustain the trends in California home prices ?

Another factor is if foreign buyers with cash are still interested in buying a home in California.

Indians have replaced the Chinese now as those with cash from Corrupt Mommy & Daddy* Back Home driving up prices here.

* Indian co-worker bragged to me about all the bribes paid for gold his judge daddy had stashed in the house. Then it got ripped off (obviously an inside job with the servants) and so dad told him he'll have to wait a few more years to buy a house in SV.

I've been seeing a lot of this in LV lately. Esp with the high end properties. This one is the most extreme, tho. $10 mill drop.

PumpingRedheads says

I've been seeing a lot of this in LV lately. Esp with the high end properties. This one is the most extreme, tho. $10 mill drop.

Might be a long shot. Money laundering? That makes no sense to list it that high and cut it that much.

PumpingRedheads says

Indians have replaced the Chinese now as those with cash from Corrupt Mommy & Daddy* Back Home driving up prices here.

The poor tech Indians live in these units.
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https://studyfinds.org/cheapest-places-to-live/

Hickory, NC and Jackson, MS are among the cheapest places to live

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WookieMan says

PumpingRedheads says

I've been seeing a lot of this in LV lately. Esp with the high end properties. This one is the most extreme, tho. $10 mill drop.

Might be a long shot. Money laundering? That makes no sense to list it that high and cut it that much.

Looking at a 23,000 square foot mansion in Chattanooga that took 7 years to build for $40 million. Now selling for $16 million. With 'furnishings collected from around the world' $19 million.

I am thinking that highly leveraged ritzies are now under increased financial stress thanks to the interest rates spiking. Either personally or their businesses or both. So, fire sale city!

I just looked at that house. Wow, pretty sweet. I bet it would be a non-stop upkeep nighmare though.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6500-Solitude-Dr-Chattanooga-TN-37416/41402303_zpid/

ad says

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https://studyfinds.org/cheapest-places-to-live/

Hickory, NC and Jackson, MS are among the cheapest places to live

.

I've hyped MS here before. Get on a lake in a not ghetto neighborhood and it's no different than Georgia, if not better and cheaper. Just know you're gonna deal with blacks if that ain't your jam. I'll be honest most are the good blacks coming from Chicagoland myself. Most people are scared of black peeople. I'd retire in a heart beat down there within in 2 hours drive of the coast. You could do it for next to nothing and not have a neighbor near you.

There are plenty of good black folk. The city turns lots of people into shit. IMO

GNL says

I just looked at that house. Wow, pretty sweet. I bet it would be a non-stop upkeep nighmare though.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6500-Solitude-Dr-Chattanooga-TN-37416/41402303_zpid/

It's got a utilidor tunnel under it. Like the ones under Disneyland.

Hate to think what it would cost to replace the roof, tho.

GNL says

There are plenty of good black folk. The city turns lots of people into shit. IMO

For sure. I've stated here probably 50 times at least get the fuck away from cities. It's only going to get worse. White, black, brown, yellow, whatever.

Rural blacks in mostly white communities thrive. That's including white trash trailer park type areas. Until blacks get back to family structure they're doomed. White folks are going down the same route of no family structure. The internet and social media have been a blessing but I'd argue more of a fucking disaster for everyone. People that get married, have kids, educate themselves are racists. It's a losing proposition to be white or black if it's against the agenda.

Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house.

WookieMan says

Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house.

Whatever keeps the wife happy.

WookieMan says

Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house.

We can't all afford a slave.

Sorry, I scan this blog and found that straight line too "Johnny Carson" to resist making jokes.

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/12/20/here-come-the-new-listings-of-existing-homes-prices-drop-further-demand-remains-at-collapsed-levels/

Here Come the New Listings of Existing Homes, Prices Drop Further, Demand Remains at Collapsed Levels

zzyzzx says

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/12/20/here-come-the-new-listings-of-existing-homes-prices-drop-further-demand-remains-at-collapsed-levels/

Here Come the New Listings of Existing Homes, Prices Drop Further, Demand Remains at Collapsed Levels

Yeah Wolfman @ Wolf Street has been rightfully warning about asset inflation and bubbles.

I figure housing should be around $340,000 based on the upper and lower trend lines.
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BigSky says

WookieMan says

Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house.

Whatever keeps the wife happy.

The black person is a child. I assume this is a joke?. I don't care, just pointing it out. Frankly don't understand what this has to do with my wife?

What's BigSky? You from Montana? I really don't get this comment overall. Or are you trolling?

WookieMan says

The black person is a child.

How many times have you posted bail for it?

WookieMan says

I assume this is a joke?

Yes. Duh.

zzyzzx says

WookieMan says

The black person is a child.

How many times have you posted bail for it?

I get this is a joke or assume as much. Zero. And it will stay zero.

WookieMan says

Zero. And it will stay zero.

Yes, because Illinois passed a no cash bail law.

Just adding to the jokes, here. Your statement about a Black in your house just opened the door for a few Patnetters to take the Mickey. All in fun and not serious. You know, like your advice on not letting the Tucker-Rock Bud Light bit bother anyone. Better than being ignored.

WookieMan says

Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house.

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HeadSet says

You know, like your advice on not letting the Tucker-Rock Bud Light bit bother anyone.

Advice??? I really don't understand the issue. I know what happened. Don't drink Bud Light. Don't pay for Kid Rock music. I really don't get what's so hard about that? It's petty to continue to bitch and whine about it. Kid Rock, John Daley and Tucker had a fucking hilarious conversation.

I doubt he does any, but I could be pumping Hunter Biden on a podcast, a real criminal. Rock flip flopped on a beer brand marketing gimmick...... and...? I don't like his music. It was financially motivated likely. He has a family. Anyone that wouldn't do something legal but looks wrong to make money for their family is a fucking liar. He didn't harm anyone and again, you don't have to buy Bud or buy Rock's music.

We got to stop getting butt hurt about stupid shit that a vocal minority brings up to get attention. Gays, trans, BLM, etc. Kid Rock fucked up and would have been better to ignore and stay out of the situation completely. But now people are butt hurt about my post. WTF?? Do you guys not see what is happening? It's a domino effect. Kid Rock does something, you complain about it, your brother does and all it is doing is giving attention to something we should have just ignored. Now this trans fag or whatever it is gets all the attention. You lost. You just don't know it. And the freak won.

Let the gays and weirdos have their fun. We can stop it. When we give it attention all we do is help it get more.

ad says

Yeah Wolfman Wolf Street has been rightfully warning about asset inflation and bubbles.

I figure housing should be around $340,000 based on the upper and lower trend lines.
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Housing would drop from peak $415,000 to $340,000 which is about a 18% drop. For every 1% increase in the 30 year mortgage rate, housing prices should drop 10% based on mortgage affordability standards.

Peak prices generally were set around early 2022 and incomes/wages have increased in 2022 and 2023 to catch up with housing costs.

So if the 30 year mortgage rate steadies around 5.5%, then housing will be in the best affordability range at least since early 2022.

Recall that the 30 year mortgage rate was around 3.75% when housing prices were starting to peak.

Buy down 4 discount points at a cost of 4% of the mortgage to reduce the 30 year mortgage rate from 5.5% to 4.5%. That is a great deal cause a 1% drop in the 30 year mortgage rate is equivalent of lowering the price by 10%.

I think you'll see a lot more sellers putting their homes on the market when rates steady below 6% and they'll offer incentives like buying discount points for the buyer.
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WookieMan says

Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house.

how do keep your bikes from disappearing?

WookieMan says

Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house

Did you call the police?

WookieMan says

Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house.

How much have home values dropped in your neighborhood?

In this country, the Case Shiller index rose 4.8% year over year in October. Yes, that was back when the 30 year mortgage was 8%.

Case Shiller measures the increase/decrease in the price of the same properties after factoring out improvements. It is not a timely report coming out a few months after the fact, but it is the most reliable gauge of home prices.

There is simply no inventory of properties for sale, and the ones that do pop up are crap. There is no imperative to sell, with most homes with a mortgage being refinanced at about 3%. We will see what next year brings maybe there will be more forced sales, but maybe lower rates to offset. We will see.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/26/sp-case-shiller-october-home-prices-post-biggest-gain-of-2023.html

I get the jokes guys. But for the first time on this site I am actually offended. He's my son at this point. I suppose I regret ever bringing it up. Whatever. I know some users better here now is all moving forward.

WookieMan says

I get the jokes guys. But for the first time on this site I am actually offended. He's my son at this point. I suppose I regret ever bringing it up. Whatever. I know some users better here now is all moving forward.

I apologize. It was in jest.

GNL says

WookieMan says

I get the jokes guys. But for the first time on this site I am actually offended. He's my son at this point. I suppose I regret ever bringing it up. Whatever. I know some users better here now is all moving forward.

I apologize. It was in jest.

Thank you for apologizing. I appreciate it. The black stereotypes are generally true, so I won't fault people even though I brought it up. Just hits home for me is all. I don't think anyone here has walked around with a black kid daily. People are fucked up is all I'll say.

WookieMan says

I get the jokes guys. But for the first time on this site I am actually offended. He's my son at this point. I suppose I regret ever bringing it up. Whatever. I know some users better here now is all moving forward.

didn’t mean to hurt you man, it’s just jokes. jokes not to be taken seriously. kinda how dave chapelle jokes about “whites”, it’s still just jokes.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

kinda how dave chapelle jokes about “whites”, it’s still just jokes.

True. No one cares if whites are made fun of. Seems that way. But since it was aimed at you, your son and your comment, my apology stands.

If there is one good thing about you @wookie it's taking that kid in. Now if I could only convince my 25 year old nephew that fast food isn't a career...

(I thought the jokes were funny though; in the 80s and 90s here in Texas people could joke about each other like that without anyone getting bent. Except for my redneck friends when they were drunk)

just_passing_through says

If there is one good thing about you wookie it's taking that kid in. Now if I could only convince my 25 year old nephew that fast food isn't a career...

(I thought the jokes were funny though; in the 80s and 90s here in Texas people could joke about each other like that without anyone getting bent. Except for my redneck friends when they were drunk)

remembering america when no one’s first thought was i”am i offending anyone right now”. used to be more honest.

just_passing_through says

If there is one good thing about you wookie it's taking that kid in. Now if I could only convince my 25 year old nephew that fast food isn't a career...

(I thought the jokes were funny though; in the 80s and 90s here in Texas people could joke about each other like that without anyone getting bent. Except for my redneck friends when they were drunk)

It was the context of the jokes I guess. I have no issue with jokes about race or any of that. I'm not a butt hurt leftie. It's just what I live is all. 95% of it is great, but there's still a negative element out there that give us the side eye or even say things to us that are disrespectful. It's upsetting to be honest.

I've been to a decent amount of trailer parks in rural IL full of white trash. I've had more stuff stolen from me by white people than black. Inner city blacks are for sure a problem. There are problems everywhere. I guess my upset was that skin color does not matter (even though I brought it up).

It's having a man or father around and a good wife. My nephew is loved in our community. And maybe it's sympathy to the situation, but I do feel it's genuine. He won't be a bad black and I agree with jokes, but not on my watch that's for sure. Nor will my boys be white trash doing meth and stealing from people. It's parenting and family in the end. Your core family should be your religion. Love my mom and sister, but the people living under my roof are people I'll die for. So I got slightly offended.

We need to get off this tangent though. This is a housing thread. Black kid with white family shouldn't derail this. My fault admittedly.

Interest rates will go to 3% and housing will jump another 10%. Who's next?

WookieMan says

Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house.

Do they at least shoplift for the whole family?

https://www.readtrung.com/p/9-best-things-of-2023

WookieMan says

Interest rates will go to 3% and housing will jump another 10%. Who's next?

it likely will steady around 5.6%

about 2% above the rate set when prices peaked around March 2022

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WookieMan says

I get the jokes guys. But for the first time on this site I am actually offended.

I'm gonna defend WookieMan. He seems like a good dude. He's posted in various spots all he's been through with his family drama. He's stepped up big time.

Yes he left the door open, and admittedly I chuckled at a couple of the replies but do we really need to eat our own?

As for housing, rates down slightly (just under 6%), prices up nominally (5%).

You can't squeeze any more blood out of this stone unless real wages go up (not going to happen) or NINJA loans come back. First timers can't get into the market. That bottlenecks everything and limits appreciation. It's even worse than 20 years ago when this blog first started, and it was bad then.