patrick.net

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/09/global-economy-set-for-its-worst-half-decade-of-growth-in-30-years-world-bank.html

The global economy is on course to record its worst half decade of growth in 30 years, according to the World Bank.

Global growth is forecast to slow for the third year in a row in 2024, dipping to 2.4% from 2.6% in 2023, the organization said in its latest “Global Economic Prospects” report released Tuesday.

Growth is then expected to rise marginally to 2.7% in 2025, though acceleration over the five-year period will remain almost three-quarters of a percentage point below the average rate of the 2010s.

Developing economies are now expected to grow by just 3.9% in 2024, more than 1 percentage point below the average of the previous decade. By the end of the year, people in about 1 out of every 4 developing countries and about 40% of low-income countries will still be poorer than they were on the eve of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2019, the organization said.

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Bloomberg TV said today Asia stocks will outperform US stocks in 2024.

And what did they say about 2023? Did it come true?

AI?



"Here's a picture of Michele pregnant, you conspiracy theorists!"

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Bloomberg TV said today Asia stocks will outperform US stocks in 2024.

It seems wise me to flip any media report and analyze the converse of the report since presumably all reports are either paid for or founded on someone's self interest.

GreaterNYCDude says

Also "Sin" investments. Booze, Casinos that sort of thing. Always a good hedge in a downturn.

Sin or addictive products are a good bet, I agree. Human wisdom cannot beat biological addiction.

Is anybody contemplating any of the new Crypto ETF's (Just 'approved' by the SEC yesterday)?

I have to admit I'm thinking of throwing a small amount of specie based solely on FOMO. Here is a short list from CNBC of them. Note the 'temporary waiver of management fees asterisk'. I'd avoid those for now.

FUND TICKER FEE
BITWISE BITCOIN ETF BITB 0.20%*
ARK 21SHARES BITCOIN ETF ARKB 0.21%*
FIDELITY WISE ORIGIN BITCOIN FUND FBTC 0.25%*
ISHARES BITCOIN TRUST IBIT 0.25%*
VALKYRIE BITCOIN FUND BRRR 0.25%*
VANECK BITCOIN TRUST HODL 0.25%
FRANKLIN BITCOIN ETF EZBC 0.29%
WISDOMTREE BITCOIN FUND BTCW 0.30%*
INVESCO GALAXY BITCOIN ETF BTCO 0.39%*
HASHDEX BITCOIN ETF DEFI 0.94%
GRAYSCALE BITCOIN TRUST GBTC 1.5%

Source: SEC filings; * indicates temporary waiver for part or all of the management fee

What's funny is that you can't even discuss these over at Bogleheads. "No intrinsic value therefore not an investment".

I guess gold, at least theoretically, has intrinsic value because you do see it discussed there, but no a lot. Bogleheads is not very entertaining.

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Booger says

Not enough income being generated. I'm nearing retirement and really only want the income.

https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vhyax

https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vscgx

.

Why would I invest in 3% funds when Tbills pay more?
Preferred stock ETF's seem to pay better than either those or Tbills. That is what I am looking into right now.

stfu says

Is anybody contemplating any of the new Crypto ETF's

No.

I was thrown off Bogleheads and I'm a Vanguard investor since 1992.

I don't like crypto either however.

Why would you buy "virtual money" with your real money?

zzyzzx says

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Booger says

Not enough income being generated. I'm nearing retirement and really only want the income.

https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vhyax

https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vscgx

.

Why would I invest in 3% funds when Tbills pay more?
Preferred stock ETF's seem to pay better than either those or Tbills. That is what I am looking into right now.

A lot of the Preferred stocks are issued by the banks. Banks are an unusually leveraged investment and even ones that are seemingly sound can go belly-up overnight. Historically if something bad causes the common stockholders to loose everything, then it is probably bad enough to wipe out the Preferreds.

Misc says

A lot of the Preferred stocks are issued by the banks. Banks are an unusually leveraged investment and even ones that are seemingly sound can go belly-up overnight. Historically if something bad causes the common stockholders to loose everything, then it is probably bad enough to wipe out the Preferreds.
« F

There is a preferred ETF for that:
https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/preferred-securities-ex-financials-etf-pfxf/overview/

I'd been considering buying some more rental properties but I'm starting to consider paying off the mortgages I have this year instead. I will for the most expensive one with the highest interest rate, 4% very soon. I can pay off the others with some change to spare.

After reading thegreattaking.com and hearing so many rumors about how our government is going to false flag us with a major cyber attack (on banks too) I'm thinking getting out is a good idea. I'm not a 'secured creditor' of the houses I own, the derivatives holders are. (same with money I put in banks, stocks I own, treasuries, etc.,.)

That's how lots of even wealthy people were wiped out in the great depression. Lots of laws have changed over the past decade to make it easier for the fat fucking cats to do this to us more easily as well. In particular if that law banning hedge funds from buying housing stock which also forces them to divest over the next decade goes through.

Really sucks though because if it weren't for corrupt banksters I really have a great setup for any potential dips that may occur in the housing market.

stfu says

Is anybody contemplating any of the new Crypto ETF's

Of course not but I may buy more and put it in cold storage.

stfu says

Is anybody contemplating any of the new Crypto ETF's (Just 'approved' by the SEC yesterday)?

iShares Bitcoin Trust is down 10.5% right now for the day

I think metal silver in hand is likely to beat inflation in the coming years.

Just a hunch.

Patrick says

I think metal silver in hand is likely to beat inflation in the coming years.

Just a hunch.

Before or after tax?

Physical holdings in gold or silver are subject to a capital gains tax equal to your marginal tax rate, up to a maximum of 28%.

Good point.

This is one way that the Fed prevents competition with its fake money.

clambo says

I was thrown off Bogleheads and I'm a Vanguard investor since 1992.

C'mon man, you can't just throw that out there and not tell the story ....

You didn't speculate on 2026's IRMMA trigger points, did you :)

The Mod's there are hella strict.

I don't recall why I was kicked out of Bogleheads.
Maybe it was about the allocation of stocks and bonds according to age?
Maybe it was about allocation to international or (worse) emerging markets?
I disagree with the "rule" of the ratio of bonds to stocks suggested by Vanguard, for example.
I was bored once and up in Vancouver, so I posted a storm.
I eventually am despised everywhere maybe.

clambo says

I eventually am despised everywhere maybe.

We like you here on p.net.

Ammo and Yams?

Booger says

Ammo and Yams?

I would want to be in a place that has adequate water supply and food and away from major population centers. Any currency like dollar bills will be worthless, and silver coins may not be of value given the state of chaos and loss of hope.

Homesteading means survival. That is what survivalist will do, as well as team together in small groups.

https://dnr.alaska.gov/mlw/landsales/

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just_passing_through says

After reading thegreattaking.com

The new world order globalists (which are really just Uber wealthy self serving assholes who are influenced or even directed by Satan) are absolutely not going to allow the middle and upper class (Which is most of us on this board) to keep their wealth and freedom.

But I’m not convinced that there are many financial strategies that can shield a middle class person from the the great taking. The only way the ants survive is by working together. Will the ants wake up (like the early American founders did) and realize their colony is run by self serving psychopaths before it is too late? It’s not looking good.

https://financology.net/model-portfolios/

I'm not affiliated, but if you have substantial assets, it behooves you to allocate you're non-fuckyou money to something that has a reasonable chance of maintaining value.

Talk about F U money. My Federal Reserve buddy looked at a file of someone who has a $700M net worth. $350M was allocated in real estate and $350M in stocks/bonds.

Eman, how does someone at the Federal Reserve see someone's net worth and assets.

Tip: My Vanguard Variable Annuity is unreported to any government department; it's a contract between me and TransAmerica.

Eat shit Uncle Sam.

just_passing_through says

Lots of laws have changed over the past decade to make it easier for the fat fucking cats to do this to us more easily as well.

I am a Certified Paranoid Conspiracy Theorist but I ask why the hell would they, slowly and quietly, make these changes (which I think many [most] are unaware of) if they don't intend, at some point, to TAKE OUR FUCKING MONEY.

AmericanKulak says

AI?



"Here's a picture of Michele pregnant, you conspiracy theorists!"

Being pregnant at 59th? Looks cool indeed.

Take advantage of illegals. Buy apartment building and rent by rooms. Perhaps government will pay you. 40%+ return on money.

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stfu says

Is anybody contemplating any of the new Crypto ETF's (Just 'approved' by the SEC yesterday)?

iShares Bitcoin Trust is down 10.5% right now for the day

Noooooo!

Eric Holder says

Before or after tax?

Physical holdings in gold or silver are subject to a capital gains tax equal to your marginal tax rate, up to a maximum of 28%.

Before or after premiums?

They are like $5-$7 per $25 silver coin.

Still worth having a smidge though for cannibal anarchy. (and lead .. um coins, yeah that's the ticket)

clambo says

Eman, how does someone at the Federal Reserve see someone's net worth and assets.

Tip: My Vanguard Variable Annuity is unreported to any government department; it's a contract between me and TransAmerica.

Eat shit Uncle Sam.

The Federal Reserve audit banks on a daily basis….kind of like the Big 4 accounting firms. Reviewing ultra high net worth individuals, who have big loan amounts with the banks, are normal. That’s why there’s a saying “if you owe the bank $1M, it’s your problem, but if you owe the bank $100M, it’s their problem.” The Fed wants the banks to have adequate reserves for all loans they consider “high risk”

He mostly shares interesting stuff he sees when he reviews files. This is why my lenders are shocked when I talk and negotiate loan terms with them. Certain terms are only being offered to the privilege. Remember how Mark Zuckerberg got 1% mortgage loan with his lender? Yeah, certain things are catered to the ultra rich, not the minions

Robert Sproul says

just_passing_through says

Lots of laws have changed over the past decade to make it easier for the fat fucking cats to do this to us more easily as well.

I am a Certified Paranoid Conspiracy Theorist but I ask why the hell would they, slowly and quietly, make these changes (which I think many [most] are unaware of) if they don't intend, at some point, to TAKE OUR FUCKING MONEY.

Exactly. Real Estate, 401k, even cash will be taken by some governmental body “for your own good” of course.

gabbar says

Isn't this what we do, discuss on facebook, whatsapp, p.net?

We’ll be identified easily as stray ants and even the other woke ants are/will turn against us. I’m not holding any hope that the ants will realize they have opportunity to secure their wealth and freedom before it is too late. It might already be too late.

PeopleUnited says

Exactly. Real Estate, 401k, even cash will be taken by some governmental body “for your own good” of course.

I dunno about cash, but all debt based assets. Maybe after they roll out cbdc and ban cash. Harder to steal a paid-for house (raise property taxes sky high would do it), coins/metals and nearly impossible to get at your bitcorn - unless they torture you.

Harder for them to know about the butane tanks you've buried in the woods and the boxes and boxes of refillable cigarette lighters you've stowed away for barter. Weapons, ammo, etc.

Not that I'm setup like that at all... However, I'm going to go fill my gas cans with fresh ethanol free gas today so when the temperature hits 17F here late Sunday (or early Monday) and the power in Texas goes out again for nearly a week I can survive that using my new generator.

It'll be above freezing during the days this week though so we will probably be okay. The 'rain' is scheduled for daytime. It's when things ice up here that we're screwed and everything breaks as easily as The Coaster does in SD when it rains there.

gabbar says

Is there a bulletproof long term dividend paying stock?

I own some Phillip Morris. I think they have a viable long-term business in the "electric cigarettes" market. My idea is that their profits (and stock price) rise at the rate of inflation while spinning off a 5.5% (and increasing) dividend.

SunnyvaleCA says

I own some Phillip Morris. I think they have a viable long-term business in the "electric cigarettes" market. My idea is that their profits (and stock price) rise at the rate of inflation while spinning off a 5.5% (and increasing) dividend.

I was swing trading MO (Altria) the past year quite a bit. I beat the dividends by a lot but never received one. The past few months the chart hasn't shown any nice clean entry points though.

For a while though there was a nice easy sine-wave. (trending down)

Anyone familiar with Genpact Limited (Ticket Symbol: G)?
Its was included in Portfolio 1 of Value Line Investment Survey at $41. Current price is $34.