patrick.net

$20 gasoline would effectively kill large cities. I can't remember exactly where I came across the article (probably hacker news), but the gist was that cities can only grow as large as it takes to traverse them within a given amount of time. Absent automobiles, and without massive public infrastructure like trollies, buses, and light rail, the cities must shrink. It could be enough to undo the global urbanization trend.

DooDahMan says

Looking at the amount of vehicles on the roads right now and summer driving just about to get rolling with Memorial Day weekend demand is not off that much.

Have to look at demand and consumption for gasoline now compared to same time in 2017 to 2021.

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from energy slideshow at https://www.dallasfed.org/research/energy
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HunterTits says

Learn some fucking economics. $1/mile transportation fuel costs are NOT cheap. NOT a bargain. Esp when they were just 50 cents or so a few years ago.

Your white liberal shithole (i.e., within an AntiFa riot parade distance of Berkeley and where you live) charges that much for gas, boy.

Live with it or move the fuck out of your state and bring your conservative vote to a purple state like Nevada or a red state like Mississippi. I just paid $4.07 a gallon for gas in South Walton Florida, boy.

And I see you paid $6.19 a gallon mostly due to a lot higher taxes. But I agree that gas prices are very high and the energy companies are trying to squeeze as much profit they can in anticipation for gas prices crashing (i.e., check Permian rig counts).

Roll Tide Roll.

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stereotomy says

$20 gasoline would effectively kill large cities. I can't remember exactly where I came across the article (probably hacker news), but the gist was that cities can only grow as large as it takes to traverse them within a given amount of time.

What did people do before they had automobiles with affordable liquid fuels? That's a quite recent phenomenon in the history of urban civilization.

B.A.C.A.H. says

What did people do before they had automobiles with affordable liquid fuels?

What they did, is they did without. That is, rural folks rarely left the farm or the hollar. City folks only went places they could walk to, and any travel between cities was done by rail.

HeadSet says

What they did, is they did without. That is, rural folks rarely left the farm or the hollar. City folks only went places they could walk to, and any travel between cities was done by rail.

Yes.

Suburban Sprawl is a recent phenomenon enabled by cheap gasoline. Even one dollar per mile, is cheap. (Sorry, bubbas). Whether it's due to taxes, shortages, or whatever, we will pay it. Like all the over-mortgaged folks who paid the gasoline high prices in 2008, if we must choose between traveling to work, chauffeuring kids or doing some necessary errands, we will pay it before we pay our mortgages (or rent) or pay off other debts.

We will blame everyone except ourselves for the choices we made to build our lives around super-cheap energy. We will blame Democrats. We will blame Republicans. We will blame oil companies. We will blame Sacramento. We will blame Putin and the Arabs and the Israelis and the Environmentalists. We will blame them all, maybe we will even kill for access to petrol, like Hitler invading Russia and Tojo seizing oil fields in the Pacific. We will bitch and moan and complain and blame everyone except ourselves for the choices we make, choices that have boxed us in to paying whatever it may cost, maybe even a dollar a mile.

stereotomy says

$20 gasoline would effectively kill large cities. I can't remember exactly where I came across the article (probably hacker news), but the gist was that cities can only grow as large as it takes to traverse them within a given amount of time. Absent automobiles, and without massive public infrastructure like trollies, buses, and light rail, the cities must shrink. It could be enough to undo the global urbanization trend.

Seems to me that large cities would be the eventual beneficiary of very high gasoline prices. The largest cities in the world are in China and India, two places where only a small percentage of people have personal automobiles. High fuel costs will push almost everyone to abandon their cars, especially in large cities. Without cars, residents will be more open to public transportation, especially rail transportation. With everyone using public transportation, those modes of travel will be safer and better — unlike many systems in the US where only the poor are forced onto public transportation. So: fewer cars -> better public transportation -> still fewer cars -> even better public transportation. That positive feedback loop could rapidly transform US cities and make them more livable and more dense than ever.

High fuel prices are more likely to hurt suburban and urban areas, which are mostly made livable by use of person automobiles. That will further push people into cities, where they don't need to travel long distances and there is public transportation.

HunterTits says

DooDahMan says

And soon thereafter the public will be outraged over the condition of their roads, highways etc. when tax revenues for such things disappear.

I see that it is Ignorance Celebration Day on PatNet.

The FUCKING gas taxes did not go to road repair. Congress and the State legislatures RAIDED those revenues for decades. Had they not, we'd have enough money in those funds to pay for entire replacement of the interstate highways 3 - 4 times over.

Instead, we get ever increasing gas taxes and ever increasing pot holes.

Not only that, but DooDah was commenting on my post about increased taxes affecting the accuracy of comparisons between price of gasoline in 2008 verses 2022 verses the price of oil at those times. Stating the use of the tax revenue or effect of taxes on the public has nothing to do with my point.

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https://www.gasbuddy.com/gaspricemap

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B.A.C.A.H. says

What did people do before they had automobiles with affordable liquid fuels? That's a quite recent phenomenon in the history of urban civilization.

They had horses pulling buggies, and shittys were stinking hellholes. It was only 110 years ago.

This is a complicated time because it's difficult to think we will revert to the mean. If we really revert to the mean, that is the death of something like 7 billion people. I can understand the reversion to the mean in multiple cases, but I'm too human to imagine this particular mean. I can't help but believe this is an unprecedented time and this time "it's different".

B.A.C.A.H. says

(Sorry, bubbas).

You don't understand how food works.

You can shit all you like on rural people, but they make all your food.

I knew farmers that made a million dollars one year, and lost 3 million in the same year. They are slaves to the banks.

I kind of want to see a starvation event so you can see your own ignorance. There's no lack of food, there's a lack of money. Without taxation of land, this would not be a problem.

richwicks says

I kind of want to see a starvation event so you can see your own ignorance.

Yes, yes, I know. Farmers and diesel. I come from a farming family.

Which part of my post was ignorance?

B.A.C.A.H. says

Which part of my post was ignorance?

I thought, apparently incorrectly, that you didn't realize how food is produced.

I have ZERO contempt of "country bumpkins", I hate a lot of contempt for the "top of society".

I know who the useless eaters are of our society, they are the assholes that declare there are useless eaters. These stupid, over-educated, twats serve no purpose. If we wiped out the entire political class, all the business class, every engineer, scientist, doctor, and military twat, honestly the survivors - the people we depend upon, would probably be better off. I can see the parasites now.

I make toys. Me enginerd. Toys. Nothing I make you need.

richwicks says

I have ZERO contempt of "country bumpkins", I hate a lot of contempt for the "top of society".

Me too. I would deride you of ignorance, but that would be deplorable of me to do so: Bubba is a term of endearment among my kindred in rural Kansas and Oklahoma. Kind of like homie is here in urban Left Coast.

Going to force people then to use this if it gets that cold instead of expensive electric heating and inefficient heat pump/ air condition system...

can run this if have just enough leaks or draft into the house, though it has some safety features like oxygen meter ... it connects to standard propane tank for a barbecue grill..

https://www.amazon.com/Dyna-Glo-RA18LPDG-000-Cabinet-Heater/dp/B0041OEB7E

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Nope, it is a simply a case of cronyism. The bottom feeders will simply start their own (ok their relatives) natural gas company and buy natural gas from PSE, but the connections to homes will run through this NEW, corruption built company that has less then 500k customers. - Charming

AD says

Going to force people then to use this if it gets that cold instead of expensive electric heating and inefficient heat pump/ air condition system...

can run this if have just enough leaks or draft into the house, though it has some safety features like oxygen meter ... it connects to standard propane tank for a barbecue grill..

https://www.amazon.com/Dyna-Glo-RA18LPDG-000-Cabinet-Heater/dp/B0041OEB7E

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Surprisingly cheap.

Eric Holder says

Surprisingly cheap.

it says runs 64 hours on one 20 lb propane tank.. about $18 for the propane in this tank or $4 per pound ...

conservatively figure it runs 8 hours per day to heat 500 square feet during very cold winter .. so about 8 days of heating from one 20 lb propane tank

AD says

Eric Holder says

Surprisingly cheap.

it says runs 64 hours on one 20 lb propane tank.. about $18 for the propane in this tank or $4 per pound ...

conservatively figure it runs 8 hours per day to heat 500 square feet during very cold winter .. so about 8 days of heating from one 20 lb propane tank

In SF Bay Area one tank would probably last the whole winter.

US oil production barely above December 2019 levels: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_crude_oil_production

World oil production down about 5% from December 2019 levels: https://ycharts.com/indicators/world_crude_oil_production

World economy is in recessionary conditions and this has caused a drop in demand for oil, hence that is why oil prices are not going up as much

Just look at China and its stock market as well as manufacturing and exports (yes post-COVID correction)

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That graph for the Bush years is off. Bush started the inflation of Oil "Because!", it got damn near $5.00 a gallon in 2005.
If you recall Oil would spike every time the middle east rattled a sword. But then they just claimed we were at peak Oil(Where did that go?) and just raised the price due to all of the speculation. By time Obama got in office the price of Oil was already baked in.

Oil jumped to $175 a barrel under Bush, I remember the Libs on Patnet was calling it the new norrmal.