patrick.net

socal2 says

Great day to by MOAR TSLA because "smart people" in Wall Street don't seem to understand macro in Q1.

- Eco-terrorist attack on Berlin factory shutting down production for over 2 weeks
- Houthi attacks on shipping causing thousands of cars to be stuck on ships from China going around Africa to reach Europe
- Fremont factory re-tooling for the new Model 3 Highland launch

Dude, you like your car. I haven't seen anyone argue it's a bad car for YOUR wants and needs. It's overpriced and takes 3-4 years for EV to pay off the difference of a similar car. Sure not as zippy, but still accomplishes the mission. Like a Toyota Corolla or similar.

Also there's no cars that need to go through the Suez or Red Sea that come to America. They come across the Pacific or European cars across the Atlantic. Tesla might source parts elsewhere, but it's mainly an American made car. Most of Toyota and Nissan are made here. Can't recall the company but most of your new car tires come from a Asian company that built a huge tire plant near Nashville.

The global thing didn't work out. We've been decoupling from it for a while and it was accelerated by covid. Your cars in the next 10 years will all be made in America or Mexico.

EV's have reached their saturation point. Car buyers are men for the most part. I know plenty of women that had their mid-life crisis and got a Tesla. Men want sports cars that make noise. Sale will continue to drop. Cyber Truck deliveries will get the soy boys that think it makes them look manly. Those sales will dry up as well. Hence why Musk is on every podcast on the planet and has started advertising. I don't play the stock game, but I'd be shorting if I was a gambler.

WookieMan says

I don't play the stock game, but I'd be shorting if I was a gambler.

Tesla Stock trading about $170 today. Let's check back later and see if shorting would have won.

WookieMan says

Also there's no cars that need to go through the Suez or Red Sea that come to America. They come across the Pacific or European cars across the Atlantic. Tesla might source parts elsewhere, but it's mainly an American made car.

The Chinese gigafactory factory is one of Tesla's highest production volume factories and ships cars to Europe that would use the Suez canal. There is also major component suppliers that were disrupted having to send ships around the horn of Africa.

WookieMan says

Car buyers are men for the most part. I know plenty of women that had their mid-life crisis and got a Tesla. Men want sports cars that make noise.

I thought you told me that you don't need power or acceleration and driving is no kick for you? You are fine tooling around in a big Japanese Nissan provided you can tow your toys around? If you like fast and powerful cars now, you can't get a faster or more powerful car than a Tesla for the price.

WookieMan says

Cyber Truck deliveries will get the soy boys that think it makes them look manly.

You sure about that?

It's already iconic with some groups.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/E8y7vbQnlx8

HeadSet says

Tesla Stock trading about $170 today. Let's check back later and see if shorting would have won.

I think the stock will be pretty flat this year. Lots of Liberals hating on Elon driving B.S. FUD stories and trying to prop up the dying Fords and GM's. Interest rates are high impacting all auto sales.

The next big leg up will be later this year when they introduce the much cheaper Model 2 and Full Self Driving gets more mainstream.

All Tesla owners are getting a free one month subscription to FSD this month (haven't gotten mine yet). But the initial reviews from drivers is quite positive.

I don't think people appreciate how much FSD is going to change transportation and our society. How do you put a value on this technology? Especially if Tesla licenses it to other automakers? There is no other technology on the planet that is close to this level of useful AI and Tesla is growing their lead every single day with millions of miles of new training data from all their cars on the road.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zs96BKDCDR4

socal2 says

I don't think people appreciate how much FSD is going to change transportation and our society.

I wonder if Uber and Lyft stock will also increase because this FSD looks like it will soon eliminate the need for a driver. I have long predicted that private cars will be unaffordable by 2035 and people will just order rides via app and have a FSD vehicle add them to an irregular route.

socal2 says

I thought you told me that you don't need power or acceleration and driving is no kick for you? You are fine tooling around in a big Japanese Nissan provided you can tow your toys around? If you like fast and powerful cars now, you can't get a faster or more powerful car than a Tesla for the price.

I personally don't. Most men don't. They want utility. Tesla doesn't provide that for any model. Have a family of 5 that goes 250 miles with a trailer up to Wisconsin twice a month in the summer. Gas the Armada up and get there on one tank and tool around the entire weekend without filling up until the return trip. With a trailer or camper. I can get in mud and off road situations. No model of Tesla does that without a charging stop.

I have just the weekend. I don't have fucking time for that shit. Cyber Truck is the only one that can tow and you'd be lucky to get 100 miles out of it. This is just leisure. There's also work. I just drove 150 miles today with ZERO chargers on the way. It's still chilly here. Even if topped off, there would be risk of running out of electric on the trip and no where to charge. Nope. Not worth it for a shitty looking sedan. All sedans look shitty to me, so not being biased. The truck looks like a retard got ahold of a CAD program on acid. The specs suck.

HeadSet says

socal2 says

FSD looks like it will soon eliminate the need for a driver.

Not soon, or not anytime reasonably soon.

zzyzzx says

Not soon, or not anytime reasonably soon.

I will let you know later this month once I get my free 1 month subscription that Tesla is offering all Tesla drivers.

socal2 says

zzyzzx says

Not soon, or not anytime reasonably soon.

I will let you know later this month once I get my free 1 month subscription that Tesla is offering all Tesla drivers.

Why is Telsa offering anything is my question? I thought it was a miracle car? Sales are drying up. Not the hugest state, but I have a wide network. No one is looking to buy a Tesla that doesn't already have one in IL. Going off what I see in person. Missed it during the housing bust when lumber flatbed semis literally disappeared. Private jets disappeared at my local airport.

Fact is your head needs to be on a swivel. My wife is looking for fucking eagles while she drives. I'm autistic in a sense. Something as simple as my neighborhood gas station has half the firewood purchased in 2 days. I don't need charts and graphs. It's pretty damn obvious if you're looking. I'm full blown anecdotal at this point. I don't trust a thing the media says for sure. I'd actually trust some of you here for your location based observations. Never would take a stock tip or an investment tip though.

WookieMan says

Why is Telsa offering anything is my question? I thought it was a miracle car?

Tesla's valuation "as a car company" has always been crazy high because the future value of things like Full Self Driving. Software margins and SaaS revenue potential has always been the driver for Tesla's high stock price. There is no way Tesla can sell enough cars alone to justify it's valuation.

Unlike all the other AI and large language model (LLM) developments in the last 12 months like ChatGPT which are basically novelties - Tesla's full self driving AI is already very useful and has massive revenue potential in the real world. And no one else is even remotely close to developing what Tesla already has and Tesla's lead is growing exponentially every single day as millions of Teslas on the road and feeding Tesla's machine learning. Tesla will be able to license this technology to other automakers which will allow them to make absolute bank because software margins are so good and all the cost of development has been spent.

I have personally driven at least 15,000 miles using Tesla's basic autopilot and absolutely love it and trust it more than my driving. I was coming home late last night after a customer dinner in Los Angeles and let it do 98% of the freeway driving for the 90 mile drive. It is such a better experience to let the car do the heavy lifting and allow you to relax a bit more and keep an eye on other things.

FSD is going to change transportation IMO. Robotaxis, freight, floater car to take grandparents and kids around.....

“Let the car do the heavy lifting so I can keep an eye on other things.”

FFS, that is some of the craziest shit I’ve ever read. You know you’ll be help liable if something goes wrong, right?

Apparently new unsold 2023 F-150 Lightnings are being discounted:

socal2 says

I have personally driven at least 15,000 miles using Tesla's basic autopilot and absolutely love it and trust it more than my driving. I was coming home late last night after a customer dinner in Los Angeles and let it do 98% of the freeway driving for the 90 mile drive. It is such a better experience to let the car do the heavy lifting and allow you to relax a bit more and keep an eye on other things.

You do know it's going to lead to more DUI's, right? Cops for sure profile by car. You don't need to hit a line to get pulled over. If you're swerving inside the lines that's still a reason to pull you over. Self driving is notoriously bouncing back and forth between the lines. Make sure you haven't had a drink when you say it was a client dinner. Your luck runs out at some point.

The owner of the Tesla I drove got a DUI in it. So yeah, autopilot is not your friend. This is no different than flying. If you can't hand drive a car anymore the shit will hit the fan in a multitude of ways. The DUI was because of the autopilot FYI. She would have gotten a hotel once she sat down in the car and realized she couldn't drive. I have to live with what I know. It's not fool proof. I would never drive a Tesla after having a drink. I drink a good amount. Not even one drink. ZERO DUI's. She had none until she got a Tesla. Just saying.

If you're driving after 10pm you've got a target on your back. I don't need that. Cops know you're potentially passed out in a moving vehicle. So you're going to be scrutinized more. I can keep any car between the lines smoothly. No interest in a cop thinking I'm hammered on autopilot. Because that's 100% what cops think. Hence why the insurance is so high on Tesla's.

GNL says

FFS, that is some of the craziest shit I’ve ever read. You know you’ll be help liable if something goes wrong, right?

Of course I would be liable - just like I would be liable if the standard cruise control malfunctioned and I rear ended someone in my wife's Hyundai.

Regardless, I still love using adaptive cruise control for long freeway drives and makes my drive less stressful. Tesla Autopilot and Full Self Driving are the next level beyond that where it can take you door to door.

Tesla already has over 1 billion miles clocked on Full Self Driving (human supervised) without any major accidents or injuries. Millions of new miles are being driven every single day, especially this month with every Tesla owner getting a free trial and the release of Version 12 which is the big breakthrough. All that new training data just makes the driving better and better.

Statistically you have something like 700 crashes and 17 fatalities for every 1 billion miles driven in the US. Soon there will be plenty of real data for regulators and insurance companies to consider for future rules.

WookieMan says

The owner of the Tesla I drove got a DUI in it. So yeah, autopilot is not your friend.

Full Self Driving Version 12 is a totally different thing than standard Autopilot.

socal2 says

Full Self Driving Version 12 is a totally different thing than standard Autopilot

Yes, we know.

Can't wait for that Single Fuckup to take Tesla out worse than Boeing. Too bad someone will have to die for it, like what happened with Uber's SDC program after they killed that cyclist in Arizona.

socal2 says

WookieMan says

The owner of the Tesla I drove got a DUI in it. So yeah, autopilot is not your friend.

Full Self Driving Version 12 is a totally different thing than standard Autopilot.

Again, if you enjoy a night out on the town, you think "self driving" it going to get you home you're absolutely wrong. It will result in more DUI accidents.

Not many Teslas here, but I'll get 2-3 lanes away on the highway if it's after 6pm. I get into a car to drive. If I can't I shouldn't. I'll stay at a hotel or buddies house.

It's not about the tech. It's about killing people based on the tech. I'm smarter than a car. I think a lot of Tesla drivers have engineer brains. They're generally dumber than street smart folks. No at fault accidents in my life. One was the other persons fault. Tesla cannot say the same.

Rivian still lost 107,000 dollars on every vehicle delivered in 2023

https://www.electrive.com/2024/02/22/rivian-records-billions-in-losses-in-2023/

Tesla In Turmoil: The EV Meltdown In 10 Charts

The layoffs at Tesla (and the recall of the Cybertruck) are only part of the electric vehicle debacle

https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/teslas-turmoil-the-ev-meltdown-in

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Tesla In Turmoil: The EV Meltdown In 10 Charts

The layoffs at Tesla (and the recall of the Cybertruck) are only part of the electric vehicle debacle

I know you've been saying this, so have I, and you post this. Pretty damming and I don't think people understand. It's beyond the car itself. Well maybe the Cyber Truck is fucked. I think it is. Market saturation is here if not already done. One cold week in IL shows it's not a reliable car in cold temps.

They'll still sell cars, but will it be profitable? Clearest answer is no. You simply won't be able to charge them without massive brown outs cutting off EVERYONE's electric in the summer. They don't work in cold. That's not going to win over potential new customers. The grid cannot handle it and the rare earth minerals needed could go into productive stuff instead of driving around in zippy car with limited range and no utility for a family.

They won't go away, but the market is nearing its max. Need more nukes if it will ever be feasible and slave labor.

It was a poor business model. Hybrids are the market. It's kind of obvious. Cheaper, same maintenance for the most part as an EV and mechanics that have been around for a century in some family auto shops.

Hell just last week I had 3 track meets with ZERO charging stations 60 miles away (one way) in cool weather. No chance I'd trust a Tesla or any EV for that range. Between events I'll sit in the car with the heat going. I don't see myself ever buying an EV. Have driven them and they're fun. That's it. Our IL grid is solid, but I know the oil/gas grid will be there. I'm kind of in the middle of nowhere. But driving in any direction there's a gas station within 20 miles max, but no charging stations.

HeadSet says

WookieMan says

I don't play the stock game, but I'd be shorting if I was a gambler.

Tesla Stock trading about $170 today. Let's check back later and see if shorting would have won.

Tesla has dropped below $150, so a short position would have won.

HeadSet says

HeadSet says

WookieMan says

I don't play the stock game, but I'd be shorting if I was a gambler.

Tesla Stock trading about $170 today. Let's check back later and see if shorting would have won.

Tesla has dropped below $150, so a short position would have won.

I think it's just beginning. I don't think it will be a blood bath, but it's simple market saturation for a product 4-8% of society would buy. I can promise you between the kids goofing off around town and my walks, there's not a single Tesla or EV in our town with 800 homes.

You simply cannot sell them to rural folks. Suburban folks yes. City yes. But it's still a low percentage besides cities. I was just at a track meet yesterday in hill billy IL. 1,000 people with the kids. I'd guess 300-400 cars. Not one Tesla. No EV's at all. Maxed out parking, so yes I drove around the lot quite a bit as I was late. When you have that many cars and there's not ONE, that business model is not sustainable.

Then throw out the Pontiac Aztec of trucks and you've fucked yourself. I actually like Musk, but he's making some big mistakes. I'd keep shorting it, but again, not advice as I don't do individual stocks. I really don't see now it's going to work. High prices, government subsidies needed to break even, no infrastructure support, etc. It's a recipe for disaster.

Car rental operator Hertz (HTZ) reported it lost another $200 million due to its EV gamble.

In its first quarter earnings report, Hertz said it “upsized” its prior EV fleet drawdown plans by an additional 10,000 EVs, which led to the company incurring a $195 million charge to vehicle depreciation for writing down the value of EVs held for sale.

The company previously said it would sell off 20,000 EVs from its fleet, meaning it will now dispose of 30,000 EVs in its fleet through the end of 2024. Add today’s charge to the $245 million write-down taken in Q4, and the company has now lost $440 million on its EV gambit.

Hertz’s EV fleet — which once stood at 60,000 EVs, will be cut down to half that at 30,000 EVs. A third of Hertz’s EV fleet was from Tesla (TSLA), with the rest coming from Polestar (PSNY), Volvo (VLVLY), and Chevrolet (GM).

For the quarter, Hertz reported an adjusted loss of $1.28 a share, wider than the $0.44 loss analysts were expecting. Hertz reported an adjusted net income loss of $392 million, more than double the $147 million loss expected.

Hertz stock was down 20% in midday trading.

Hertz’s depreciation per unit (DPU) soared to $592 in the first quarter, jumping from the $498 it saw last quarter and more than double the $253 it reported in Q1 last year. Hertz blamed the deterioration in DPU on losses from the sales of gas-powered vehicles as well as on losses from the market value of EVs in its fleet and from the disposition of other EVs.

There weren’t just financial costs to Hertz’s EV bet. Last month, Hertz’s then-CEO Stephen Scherr, who spearheaded the plan to go all in on EVs, was replaced by Gil West, former COO of GM’s Cruise autonomous unit and, prior to that, COO of Delta Air Lines.

"Fleet and direct operating costs weighed on this quarter's performance," Hertz CEO Gil West said in a statement. "We're tackling both issues — getting to the right supply of vehicles at an acceptable capital cost while at the same time driving productivity up and operating costs down."

Funny thing: i did rent EVs from them several times, but not at full price - they offered them as replacement for a small sedan I usually rent (and usually don't get - they always upgrade me to midsize or bigger). It sorta worked for me, but I found the whole Supercharger thing annoying (Herz doesn't include 120V/240V adapters with their EVs, so no charging at home). We also have cheap (albeit slow) chargers at work and it was better than sitting and fingerfucking my phone for 20-40 min on end at Superchargers.

https://youtube.com/shorts/0XRgYf8Rd4o?si=-l_sJaHJWhhOKUll

Only driven one Tesla and didn't notice this, but it's worth noting. If they're shit cars that's even worse. One short clip, but I don't know, wouldn't surprise me.

WookieMan says

https://youtube.com/shorts/0XRgYf8Rd4o?si=-l_sJaHJWhhOKUll

Only driven one Tesla and didn't notice this, but it's worth noting. If they're shit cars that's even worse. One short clip, but I don't know, wouldn't surprise me.

The seasick passengers is on the driver. My wife used to do this annoying "speed up - slow down - speed up" schtick. With aggressive regen it could be more pronounced than with the engine braking, but it's still on the driver.

The build quality is definitely not super: one of the Teslas I rented had what seemed to be a loose nut rolling under the floor from one side to another in every turn.

Ford’s electric vehicle unit reported that losses soared in the first quarter to $1.3 billion, or $132,000 for each of the 10,000 vehicles it sold in the first three months of the year, helping to drag down earnings for the company overall.

Ford, like most automakers, has announced plans to shift from traditional gas-powered vehicles to EVs in the coming years. But it is the only traditional automaker to break out results of its retail EV sales. And the results it reported Wednesday show another sign of the profit pressures on the EV business at Ford and other automakers.

The EV unit, which Ford calls Model E, sold 10,000 vehicles in the quarter, down 20% from the number it sold a year earlier. And its revenue plunged 84% to about $100 million, which Ford attributed mostly to price cuts for EVs across the industry. That resulted in the $1.3 billion loss before interest and taxes (EBIT), and the massive per-vehicle loss in the Model E unit.

RWSGFY says

The build quality is definitely not super: one of the Teslas I rented had what seemed to be a loose nut rolling under the floor from one side to another in every turn.

Not your empty beer bottle?

RWSGFY says

Ford’s electric vehicle unit reported that losses soared in the first quarter to $1.3 billion,

Odd that it did not affect Ford stock.

HeadSet says

RWSGFY says

The build quality is definitely not super: one of the Teslas I rented had what seemed to be a loose nut rolling under the floor from one side to another in every turn.

Not your empty beer bottle?

I only drink beer from cans while driving. Besides, how would it get UNDER the floor?

HeadSet says

RWSGFY says

Ford’s electric vehicle unit reported that losses soared in the first quarter to $1.3 billion,

Odd that it did not affect Ford stock.

It did. But not dramatically, because the EV losses were offset by ICE profits.

RWSGFY says

I only drink beer from cans while driving. Besides, how would it get UNDER the floor?

Run over a drunk?

RWSGFY says

I only drink beer from cans while driving.

Good idea. Opening a beer bottle with your teeth cause tooth loss if you hit a pothole.

HeadSet says

RWSGFY says

I only drink beer from cans while driving.

Good idea. Opening a beer bottle with your teeth cause tooth loss if you hit a pothole.

It's very nice of you to assume I even have teeth. Thanks!

HeadSet says

RWSGFY says

I only drink beer from cans while driving. Besides, how would it get UNDER the floor?

Run over a drunk?

Many times, but the same question arises: how does the bottle get above the battery (and under the floor).

Right now Subaru does $241 per month, no money down, no security deposit 3 yr lease on Solterra EV. There is no way they are not losing money on this deal.

And Hyundai offers $239 per month, no down, no sec deposit, 24 months, 12K miles per year lease on Ionic 6.

This is on supposedly $46K car.

RWSGFY says

Many times, but the same question arises: how does the bottle get above the battery (and under the floor).

Drunk Mechanic.