patrick.net

Inventory is skyrocketing.

Before 2008 average - 980k new builds/year. After 2008 average - 960k new builds/year. Indians and Mexicans live 6 to a 4 bedroom. There is no shortgage. What is coming is a boomer sell off glut.

Just wait until they have to finance a big medical crisis and millions are taking 5 figures from their retirement accounts. There are no Boomers outside Soc Sec age now. Not by the end of the decade, that long talked about date is right here right now, selling off their stocks for CHF history.

What was driven way up on the buy side, will flop way down on the sell side.

I was alive and I waited, waited
I was alive and I waited for this
Right here, right now
It really is not a crime
Right here, right now
To Watch the asset bubble pop in real time

It's not a decade ahead
Once it seemed outrageous appreciation forever
72-year old Boomer Can't climb stairs to bed
Gotta sell, so Never say never

I was alive and I waited, waited
I was alive and I waited for this
Right here, right now
Demographics ain't a big mystery
Right here, right now
Watching markets wake up from inflated history

Eh, not great

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MznHdJReoeo

our asset bubble is artificial economy ponzi scheme. took me many years to understand how our economy is artificial. which is why any sound analysis always fails, because it’s not real economy.

While there may be some price decreases in certain areas (Florida because of the insurance & condo assessment whammy) and some overbuilding like Austin and Phoenix, nationally sustained price decreases are rare except for the housing bubble.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

Housing inventory has been creeping up, but is still less than pre-covid, and probably much of that is related to Florida.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS

Even though rates have gone down from about 7.5% to 6.5%, housing affordability is stretched. Much of the country is now under similar pricing pressures that existed in California pre-covid (California housing prices did not go down even with this constrained affordability pre-covid).

Since this thread started, the Case/Shiller index has gone from about 300.57 to 323.98. This is an increase of about 7.6%. If someone were to have tried to save up money for a purchase, well good luck with that. During inflationary periods, real assets generally don't decrease in value. Wage inflation over the last 12 months, as of June, was 4.1%.

Also, for those couple million people who bought with a mortgage over the last couple of years, this recent interest rate drop has let them refinance. So, while purchases haven't gone up the number of refinancings has skyrocketed over the last couple weeks. So, their cost of housing decreased and/or they got "Free" money by doing a cash-out re-fi and keeping the same payment. Also, when borrowers re-fi, the payment gets pushed out a month. Therefore, they have a month with no housing payment. The government reports GDP numbers, but omits cash flow numbers. I will ballpark the short term cash into these peoples hands at about $55 billion between the no-payment and cash-out with an ongoing decrease in payments of about $6 billion per month.

Quite a bit of stimulus in a short period of time. This will percolate through the economy, increasing hirings and probably some price pressures.

There may be a small, very small increase in purchases from the lower interest rates.

Misc says

Since this thread started, the Case/Shiller index has gone from about 300.57 to 323.98. This is an increase of about 7.6%. If someone were to have tried to save up money for a purchase, well good luck with that. During inflationary periods, real assets generally don't decrease in value. Wage inflation over the last 12 months, as of June, was 4.1%.

Yes as far as household income/wages not keeping up with housing costs.

Home prices increased about 5% annually from January 2000 to present day.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

It looks like wages increased by about 3% annually from January 2000 to present day :-/

https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker

Perhaps low mortgage rates (and the mortgage market during 2002 to 2007) has caused housing prices to increase greater than household income.

.

Misc says

nationally sustained price decreases are rare except for the housing bubble.

That's what was said way back in... 2008.

"There's never been a national housing decline. All markets are local."

AmericanKulak says

Misc says

nationally sustained price decreases are rare except for the housing bubble.

That's what was said way back in... 2008.

"There's never been a national housing decline. All markets are local."

True, as some zip codes and metro areas did not see much of a decline from 2006 to 2012 whereas the national price index decreased 28% from an all time peak of 185 (July 2006) to 134 (February 2012).

I think Denver suffered a very small drop during that period and did not have as much of a bubble as Miami and other metro areas.

.

Pretty much all mortgages are 30 year fixed rate. We are the only country in the world giving such a blessing to its citizens.

It's like your grandfather giving you a solid gold pocket watch, but you want to use a Seiko because it is less expensive.

Also, housing inflation is higher than what just the pricing implies. With the increase in immigrants (who tend towards a higher occupancy rate per dwelling) and young adults left living with their parents because of the higher rents caused by the immigrants, living standards have decreased because there are simply more people living in the same, now older dwellings.

Misc says

Also, housing inflation is higher than what just the pricing implies. With the increase in immigrants (who tend towards a higher occupancy rate per dwelling) and young adults left living with their parents because of the higher rents caused by the immigrants, living standards have decreased because there are simply more people living in the same, now older dwellings.

While I think a lot of new building in the past decades was still obsessed with the 4-person nuclear family, I also think that alot of the prices are contingent on demographics that are about to shift dramatically. GenX is going to have a lot less in retirement AND be smaller than boomers. They also won't get the next 15-20 years of rapidly growing stock prices for sure, since that will have to beat against headwinds of Pension Funds SELLING to pay obligations to Boomers.

All GenX is about equal to the number of Boomer homeowners.

I maintain that about 10% of households can swing a $400k house at normal rates (5-7%). The problem is about 2/3 of these households already own.

Misc says

Also, housing inflation is higher than what just the pricing implies. With the increase in immigrants (who tend towards a higher occupancy rate per dwelling) and young adults left living with their parents because of the higher rents caused by the immigrants, living standards have decreased because there are simply more people living in the same, now older dwellings.

Go to Democrat shitholes like Long Island, New York and its very common for at least 2 families in one house.

They usually convert upstairs or their basement to an apartment. Notice how high property tax is on Long Island, New York, let alone the income tax and sale tax are high.

And forget about it as far as tolls such as to cross Verazano Bridge.

.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

Ha! Came to the thread to post this!

The "Neverending home price increases" is so deeply inserted in the rectum that it's way past the Sigmoid Column and huge swaths of people can't compute reality.

The used house of the underwater Homeloaner licensed Real Estate Agent in question.


The kind of house Al Bundy could have brought on a one-income shoe salesman's salary in 1988.

Seller is a licensed real estate agent

That house is at least 50% overvalued.

Asset Prices?

KNOCK EM DOWN
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ct1FhmJmgh0

AD says

Go to Democrat shitholes like Long Island, New York and its very common for at least 2 families in one house.

Long Island, esp. Suffolk, is a hardcore Republican stronghold and was for far longer than upstate NY.

That's why the Dems in Albany just diluted several LI CDs by stretching them into Queens

They usually convert upstairs or their basement to an apartment. Notice how high property tax is on Long Island, New York, let alone the income tax and sale tax are high.

This is true, But the income tax is because retarded people fought any and all light industry and LILCO plants tooth and nail. Apparently some loved commuting on the LI Distressway and 4inches of grime window LIRR so much they didn't want alternative local employment. We used to use our fingers to write "Clean Me" on them until the $80k/year conductor (in 1992) ticket puncher of that corrupt institution threatened us with being tossed off.

Now, the place is overbuilt and thanks to Albany and NYC/Upstate Rustbelt Ghetto City Welfare Hoes and Gov't Workers, they're building multistories all over.

I suspect they are listing it this way to meet the lender's demands for some sort of short selling attempt. Only thing that makes sense.

Kinda like how you see actual ads in the newspapers for tech jobs that the tech firms only put in there to comply with H1B visa bullshit compliance.

AmericanKulak says

The kind of house Al Bundy could have brought on a one-income shoe salesman's salary in 1988.

The Bundy's house was nicer.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

Kinda like how you see actual ads in the newspapers for tech jobs that the tech firms only put in there to comply with H1B visa bullshit compliance.

I worked at a place where the webmaster had an h1b visa. When they promoted him they had to advertise and the qualifications were so specific that he was the only one that could possibly qualify.

He was a really nice guy and he got the job.

The reason they advertise in newspapers is because no American reads them anymore so theycan say they haven't gotten any applications and thus need to hire a foreigner.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

I suspect they are listing it this way to meet the lender's demands for some sort of short selling attempt. Only thing that makes sense.

Owner sets the price in a short sale. We did well over 100 of these. Lender doesn't even know if you're selling. They have no say in it until you present an offer. From there the lender can accept or reject based on their own valuation (BPO's). The owner is ultimately in control until the lender forecloses.

This sounds like a situation where the owner has liquid cash outside of retirement funds. A short sale is a taxable event if you're not insolvent. So if you lose $100k you get taxed on that federally and state level. So the owner is likely setting the price at the debt owed (and maybe other debt) to pay it all off for tax avoidance.

709 days is not a serious listing either. It would have most likely been foreclosed on in that time frame if they were short selling. From my perspective it just sounds like a seller looking to pay off other debt and not wanting the home anymore as an investment.

you guys don’t think they’ll find ways to inflate prices again? why would they stop now. it’s not just housing our entire economy is based on inflation and debt.

Fort Lauderdale, FL

AmericanKulak says

I was alive and I waited, waited

The Red Hot Chile Peppers are boomers.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

The Red Hot Chile Peppers are boomers.

Hmm, and I always thought they were shroomers.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

The Red Hot Chile Peppers are boomers.

Jesus Jones, not RHCP.

Boomer if you go by the "1963 is last year of boomer"

In any case, he's got a hot 20 year old girlfriend. Keeps him going at 62.



School girls rule!

AmericanKulak says

he's got a hot 20 year old girlfriend

Your definition of "hot" and mine differ.

HeadSet says

AmericanKulak says

he's got a hot 20 year old girlfriend

Your definition of "hot" and mine differ.

Same. Not digging her at all. He also looks like a fag and always has. RHCP has also been massively overrated and I grew up in that era. Never bought an album. Most their stuff sounds overly produced and not original, as in not written by the band.

pedo

WookieMan says

HeadSet says

AmericanKulak says

he's got a hot 20 year old girlfriend

Your definition of "hot" and mine differ.

Same. Not digging her at all. He also looks like a fag and always has. RHCP has also been massively overrated and I grew up in that era. Never bought an album. Most their stuff sounds overly produced and not original, as in not written by the band.

One hot minute (w/ Dave Navarro) and Californication are two masterpieces of music. They are properly rated as one of the most influential bands of the gen x era and outstanding musicians.

HeadSet says

AmericanKulak says

he's got a hot 20 year old girlfriend

Your definition of "hot" and mine differ.

Sure I prefer my wife (who is a decade younger) but not that hot and not my type sounds like jealousy to me. Y'all would be thrilled to bang this decent looking chick at 62. Please. Sure he has a pedo whiff (possibly history) but what he's doing now is legal, either you're an adult with 18 or you aren't. Don't care about Kiedis but there are plenty of other musicians with such a significant dating age gap.

mell says

Y'all would be thrilled to bang this decent looking chick at 62

Maybe, but none of us would be banging her even if she were hot. Since we are all just looking, the comments on her appearance stand. Sorta like a comment that a particular NBA player is "not that good." Sure, that player is better than any of us will ever be, but we are just spectators that are comparing him to other NBA players. Besides, if at age 62 you want to bang a 20-year-old, just do what Jones did and whip out your wallet.

I know what I got!!!

https://www.axios.com/2024/08/12/new-existing-home-price-difference

New houses now cost less per square foot than old houses

zzyzzx says

I know what I got!!!

https://www.axios.com/2024/08/12/new-existing-home-price-difference

New houses now cost less per square foot than old houses

Cheaper land. We got ours at a massive deal considering it's fully improved with sewer, water, electricity, fiber and storm drainage. That's basically what we paid for. Now we just need to get this fucking house going. Tip, don't get two lots with an easement between the two. It's a bitch to vacate it.

zzyzzx says

I know what I got!!!

https://www.axios.com/2024/08/12/new-existing-home-price-difference

New houses now cost less per square foot than old houses

Thank you for putting this thread back on track.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

pedo

Feminist communist definition of Pedo. She's old enough to vote, be in the military, have a life or death job in emergency services of some kind, contract in any business, etc.

16-Sixteen is the ancient agreed upon age of maturity. And that was in times were famines were common so people developed more slowly, and there was far less socialization than today.

40-60 year old men and 19-20 year olds was normal until WW2.

We need to push back on the infantilization of people generally, like making excuses for 26 year olds that they're not really adults yet, or that somebody in their early 30s is still "Adulting". That's part of the Oligarch-Socialist program to tamp down on responsibility and freedom, which are naturally entwinned..

As the great Edvards Liedskalniņ of Coral Castle said, let the old birds screw the young guys and keep the young women "Fresh" for the experienced older men

But the Housing Experts on PatNet...

Seller has cut price $472k on this listing. 40% reduction from original list.

Down to a price below what they bought it for in 2020, before the pandemic spike in prices.

Worst of all: check out the HOA fee.

$2,300/month. Ouch.

https://www.siliconvalley.com/2024/03/14/mountain-view-real-estate-office-build-loan-economy-tech-buy-develop/amp/
Bay Area RE still having lots of vacancy. Heard, some are sold out for 1/4th of purchase price around in MV area! Never thought about these numbers before!

Blue says

https://www.siliconvalley.com/2024/03/14/mountain-view-real-estate-office-build-loan-economy-tech-buy-develop/amp/
Bay Area RE still having lots of vacancy. Heard, some are sold out for 1/4th of purchase price around in MV area! Never thought about these numbers before!

Commercial vacancy, you mean?