patrick.net

Blue says

I know one anecdotal evidence when attended to housewarming ceremony of relatively wealthy family. Found one big patch at the back of the new house. Later, I saw a related message on this site from Eman that house to be build with two work orders with interesting wording that should keep 1978 Prop 13 tax! That patch can be fixed with second work order.

At some point your guys state is going bankrupt. It's a when not if. You haven't had the full exodus yet. It's almost weekly I hear of a big celebrity leaving. That's not small tax dollars at 13% on the top end.

You could be a doctor, IT or nurse in Iowa or Arkansas for a fraction of the cost with the same pay. Money saved, you travel more. Problem solved. Cheaper house, money saved. Just fly to the beach monthly with the $4k/mo you could save. Or mountains. I highly doubt working people have that much time to enjoy the CA weather. Especially with kids.

Better get it built out before winter.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/less-than-a-home-deposit-why-this-24-year-old-bought-a-31k-island-instead-of-a-house-in-california-and-now-he-s-building-a-living-space-from-scratch/ar-AA1s5HFT

view pdf

WookieMan says

But they won't look at the place if the photo look like shit. GNL could like attest to this.

I guess it depends on who's looking for what. Maybe a shitty FE photo would attract the investor types the Realtors is trying to attract? But, yeah, for the most part, in my experience, Realtors want homes to be in perfect condition all the way down to the lawn and all the way up to the roof. It's pretty difficult for a buyer's agent to negotiate on a home that is in perfect condition.

'Nother teeny sugar shack around the UCSC alluvial meth field. At least this one is renovated. Wonder what you could buy in Houston for this amount.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

30 year mortgage rate is usually pegged to the US 10 Year Treasury, and about 1.5% to 2% more than the 10 Year Treasury rate.

The 10 Year Treasury is usually 1.5% more than annual inflation rate, and now the 10 Year Treasury rate is 4.2%.

If inflation is barely above 0%, then we could see the 30 year mortgage rate at 3%. But from what I've read of economists and Wall Street pundits, we will not see it at 3% for at least the next 20 years.

Perhaps if annual inflation's 12 month moving average is around 2.25%, then the 30 year mortgage rate will steady around 5.5%.

For some buyers, it would help to buy down 4 discount points to lower that rate from 5.5% to 4.5%.

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Ceffer says

Better get it built out before winter.

LOL, There's a Finnish joke about a guy who killed his nearest neighbor because he was two kilometers away and driving him crazy because he was right up his ass. And another one about "Why are you right on top of me? Find your own train car!"

Because of Halloween, here is a terrifying moment for Finns.

My father (Swedish Norwegian) whose parents immigrated from the old country said the Finns were the fiercest and most feared Scandi drunks and liked to fight in bars with knives. I have no idea if there is a reality behind that, but he also indicated that we could have some Laplander in the woodshed. So along with the Laplander and half Irish, maybe I am more than 50 percent subhuman.

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/10/21/mortgage-rates-explode-to-6-82-10-year-treasury-yield-jumps-to-4-20-55-basis-points-since-monster-rate-cut/

If you care about interest rates, you're likely below middle class. Even middle class. I give no shits about rates. I get what I want.

Last weekend a Sierra Foothills friend of mine told me her homeowners' policy was cancelled this summer. She found another policy but the premiums are higher. (Till they also cancel).

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.84 million SAAR in September, New Cycle Low

Existing-home sales drew back in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Three out of four major U.S. regions registered sales declines while the West experienced a sales bounce. Year-over-year, sales fell in three regions but grew in the West.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – receded 1.0% from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million in September. Year-over-year, sales waned 3.5% (down from 3.98 million in September 2023).
...
Total housing inventory registered at the end of September was 1.39 million units, up 1.5% from August and 23.0% from one year ago (1.13 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 4.3-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.2 months in August and 3.4 months in September 2023.
emphasis added

The sales rate was below the consensus forecast (but at housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate).

Sales in September (3.84 million SAAR) were down 1.0% from the previous month and were 3.5% below the September 2023 sales rate.

Housing Inventory Increased in September

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.39 million in September from 1.37 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 23.0% year-over-year (blue) in September compared to September 2023. Months of supply (red) increased to 4.3 months in September from 4.2 months the previous month.

Looking back to pre-pandemic levels, in September 2019 months-of-supply was at 4.0 months, so there is more supply now, on a months-of-supply basis, than prior to the pandemic! Even though inventory has declined significantly compared to 2019, sales have fallen even more - pushing up months-of-supply.

Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024.

Sales declined 3.5% year-over-year compared to September 2023. This was the thirty-seventh consecutive month with sales down year-over-year.

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased

B.A.C.A.H. says

Sierra Foothills

Beautiful country, significant fire risk.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/existing-home-sales-in-september-fall-to-lowest-level-since-2010-151911420.html

Existing home sales in September fall to lowest level since 2010

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/existing-home-sales-in-september-fall-to-lowest-level-since-2010-151911420.html

Existing home sales in September fall to lowest level since 2010

Nooooooooo!

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/10/23/demand-destruction-for-existing-homes-sales-in-2024-to-plunge-below-4-million-homes-lowest-since-1995-as-supply-spikes/

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/10/23/demand-destruction-for-existing-homes-sales-in-2024-to-plunge-below-4-million-homes-lowest-since-1995-as-supply-spikes/

Demand Destruction for Existing Homes: Sales in 2024 to Plunge Below 4 Million Homes, Lowest since 1995, as Supply Spikes
by Wolf Richter • Oct 23, 2024 • 135 Comments

Because prices are way too high. Buyers’ Strike deepened even with mortgage rates at 2-year lows at the time of those sales. But rates have spiked since then. ...







The NAR has been blaming everything it can drag by its hairs except the actual problem: Prices are too high and have killed demand. Much lower prices would stimulate demand – and commissions for Realtors because they’d make more sales. Why is this so hard to come to grips with?

Patrick says

Demand Destruction for Existing Homes

There still are not enough homes that are "priced to sell" :-(

The median home price needs to be at least 20% below 2022 all time high price level.

This is based on for every 1% increase in the 30 year mortgage rate, there should be a 10% decrease in price.

Also I adjusted down to 20% since household income and wages have increased since early 2022.

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AD says

household income and wages have increased since early 2022.

What about spending power being reduced by 25% because of Bidenflation during that time?

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

AD says

household income and wages have increased since early 2022.

What about spending power being reduced by 25% because of Bidenflation during that time?

Yes, but household income and wages have also increased while housing prices have at generally been at or below all time price levels set in 2022.

And income and wages have increased some to keep up with other living expenses like food, utilities, transportation, health care, etc

But I understand your point that housing needs to decrease even more given that more income is going to other living expenses.
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DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

AD says

household income and wages have increased since early 2022.

What about spending power being reduced by 25% because of Bidenflation during that time?

For those that own homes housing inflation has been a boon for them, hence why they don't move. If they bought in 2010-2020 they borrow tax free on their home. They could pay themselves $20k per year or much more depending on value.

Yes they pay interest on it, but it's cheaper than income taxes if you make solid money. Pay it off and rinse and repeat. Slightly dangerous if you're not good with finances, but your house is now your bank. You can buy cars, toys, whatever than any rate a creditor can get you. Plus you get it cheaper walking in all cash.

Inflation is killing the poor people. And that's why I think Trump wins. Rich people know the game, but there's not enough of them to sway an election, just donate money. Kamala has nothing to say about anything. The rich want inflation because $3 more on milk or eggs is nothing to them. If their piggy bank keeps growing, house value, they make up the difference in their sleep doing nothing.

WookieMan says

Inflation is killing the poor people. And that's why I think Trump wins. Rich people know the game, but there's not enough of them to sway an election, just donate money. Kamala has nothing to say about anything. The rich want inflation because $3 more on milk or eggs is nothing to them. If their piggy bank keeps growing, house value, they make up the difference in their sleep doing nothing.

And this is a perfect example of one way to destabilize a society. Shit is fucked up and bullshit.

So don't be poor, duh!

RWSGFY says

So don't be poor, duh!

Concur. And I'm not so I'm good. Just saying Trump is going after the crowd that is poor. Democrats used to be that party. Now it's identity politics, handouts, yet they actually give zero fucks about the poor. People are waking up.

Should go in the predictions thread, I think IL will be the only state non-coastal that will be blue. And I'm even questioning that. Did it last time and I was wrong. I think this is going to be a historic election on a lot of levels. This is an unprecedented situation. Somehow Kamala is more unlikable than Trump.