patrick.net

Or it's normal. Also 50-70% less houses were built in most places as builders went under in 2006-08. Takes a decade to build up a new business like home building. No one wanted to after the crash and then covid hit. Boomer builders are retiring as well. Our house is our builders last house.

Between trades, very little new is getting built and much of it is rentals. Here in IL they're doing panelized for apartments, so they can frame a 4 to 8 unit townhouse structure for $8k/unit tops. Slap some shit siding and roofing on. Toss some bulk purchased shit appliances and it's built for $100k with labor. Most of these are rentals. Tack on $10-20k for land and you've got $120k units that rent for $1,800 or $2K.

Existing and new homes are a thing of the past in the current climate. It will change at some point, but demographically the boomers are moved or staying. So that argument is crap. We're going to have sideways value for a while until or if family formation in younger generations start. Sub 40.

WookieMan says

Or it's normal. Also 50-70% less houses were built in most places as builders went under in 2006-08. Takes a decade to build up a new business like home building. No one wanted to after the crash and then covid hit. Boomer builders are retiring as well. Our house is our builders last house.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST

It's been over a million most of the 21st Century.

AmericanKulak says

It's been over a million most of the 21st Century.

That's national. Places like Nashville, Austin, Miami, Boise, Denver, Phoenix and the likes have been dragging the building numbers upward. Most other places are not seeing that much new building. I look at it regionally. Even Wisconsin that sucked a bunch of IL residents in doesn't have that much building. Fly over country is not really building many homes. We are but it's not remotely close to the 90's and early 2000's. So we drag national numbers down. These other hipster cities are making up for it.

I dunno.

The trend is your friend... Until it ends.

Demographics cannot be changed for at least a generation if the change was to start today. There's going to be a housing collapse nationally, an IL, CA, NJ, NY, etc. will be ground zero for the Demographic Neutron Bomb.

In ten years half the Boomers will be dead. In less than that a huge chunk will need assistance with Daily Living, including the inability to routinely walk up stairs.

As it stands now, Milennials will be well below their replacement rate. The key for replacement rate is women starting to have children by their mid 20s at the latest. If Girldads want to be grandparents, their best bet is to control their adult daughters with an iron first, vet all men, and marry them off as soon as possible, incentivizing them with bribes for have babies as soon as possible on one hand, and suggesting the problem in all marriages can be solved by having another child. Men aren't the problem, women are. Most men can be fathers in their 50 with minimal effort.

To facilitate this, near-employment (ie not in the middle of the Midwest in a one-traffic light town) housing has to be affordable early for people with modest jobs (preferrably 20% below median worker income), and market wages have to be paid (no glutting the labor market with labor, skilled or unskilled)

AmericanKulak says

Demographics cannot be changed for at least a generation if the change was to start today. There's going to be a housing collapse nationally, an IL, CA, NJ, NY, etc. will be ground zero for the Demographic Neutron Bomb.

Chicago will fold. IL as a whole is solid. Two income earners in my town can easily stay under the 3x's rule. $250-300k is the pricing here. You'd have to be a retard not to make $100-150k as a couple. If you can't do that you just rent. It's not complicated.

They're not giving out loans to losers like 2006. No crash coming where I live. FL might be another story with NY/NJ retirees moving down there. Fact is most boomers that own have equity. The kids will sell it for what they can get. A lot of them will also live to 90 and even 100. Boomer if they haven't died yet probably have 20 years left. That's a paid off house outside of a reverse mortgage. That's where your housing crash comes from. We're easily good for a decade or two.

AmericanKulak says

As it stands now, Milennials will be well below their replacement rate.

Can you cite your source for this?

Everything I read says that there are already more Millennials than boomers - with both around 72 million. There are 65 million Xers and almost 69 million Zers.

I think there will be a Z'er or M'er that will happily overpay for my (too big) house when I'm ready to sell it.

TBH - I saw an article today about this subject that claims that boomer houses aren't where M'er's want to live. It talks about "20 million homes" coming on the market as the boomers die out, but these are not in big coastal cities where the M'er's want to live. I laugh - as if M'er's are the first generation to be young in the city just long enough to hook up and get the hell out of there to somewhere safe so they can raise kids.

WookieMan says

Nashville area is going to get the shit beat out of it in my opinion.

I live outside of Nashville in a high-end area. Houses here are still selling and prices have stayed relatively flat. People are still moving here, so demand is high. Just an observation.

@AmericanKulak there’s a flaw in your argument. it assumes society will not readjust itself. it will. we lived as species for thousands of years without needing permanent inflation to keep going. So i think you worry too much over something that’s not actual danger.

porkchopXpress says

WookieMan says

Nashville area is going to get the shit beat out of it in my opinion.
I live outside of Nashville in a high-end area. Houses here are still selling and prices have stayed relatively flat. People are still moving here, so demand is high. Just an observation.

Future prediction on my end. If you can make $40-60k/house you tend to over build. Demand is there now no doubt. But I see places like Nashville and Austin taking a beating in the next 5 years at some point.

Where I live in IL is cheap. Nashville as a city can eat a turd. Only driven on the highway through the burbs, but doesn't look bad. Similar to suburban Chicago. Prices have a low ceiling I guess is my point in some of these areas. It's going to come down. If I could pee on a city Nashville and NOLA would be in the top 5. I won't visit San Fransisco or New York ever again, so not on the list at all. Even if the family wants to see it. I'll get a hotel 60 miles out and they can check it out.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

AmericanKulak there’s a flaw in your argument. it assumes society will not readjust itself. it will. we lived as species for thousands of years without needing permanent inflation to keep going. So i think you worry too much over something that’s not actual danger.

Casey-Shiller research the opposite: there has always been inflation as far back as reliable records are available. Yes, even when money was made out of fancy metals.

RWSGFY says

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

AmericanKulak there’s a flaw in your argument. it assumes society will not readjust itself. it will. we lived as species for thousands of years without needing permanent inflation to keep going. So i think you worry too much over something that’s not actual danger.

Casey-Shiller research the opposite: there has always been inflation as far back as reliable records are available. Yes, even when money was made out of fancy metals.

Especially when money was made out of fancy metals: case in point the horrible inflation in Portugal and Spain after shitload of gold was brought in from the Americas.

WookieMan says

Chicago will fold. IL as a whole is solid. Two income earners in my town can easily stay under the 3x's rule. $250-300k is the pricing here. You'd have to be a retard not to make $100-150k as a couple. If you can't do that you just rent. It's not complicated.

The Demographic Neutron bomb will be accompanied by a Blue City implosion as finally a few brave companies lead the way in relocating elsewhere, like Tulsa or Des Moines. Exactly as what happened to Gary, Indiana or Detroit, Michigan.

The Kill Zone will then extend to the Affulent Suburbs where the AMEX suits live along with their lawyers, yoga instructions, podiatrists, then further and further out the burbs. The "Killer Commute" exurbs 1-2 hours out will be burned and fast. In fact they will be among the first outlying areas to decline, since the Killer Commuters often are both the most savvy and are living there... to avoid the high cost of the city/closer burbs

SFBA is going to be one of the first to go, and it's already 'stealth happening', it just hasn't started to pick up exponential speed. Call it the very beginning of the right shoulder of the chart pattern. There will be a "false upward" movement as midwits attempt to take advantage of a 'minor downturn' to 'buy the dip'.

There is literally no reason for most of the wealth producing industries in Chicago to remain there; it's just the "Outside the Box Financial Experts" are too slow or cowardly to accept that the insurance company or algo creators can work from Little Rock and save big.

stfu says

Can you cite your source for this?

I'm referring to the birthrate of Millennial women.

Declining Fertility Rates: The millennial generation (born between 1981 and 1996) has been characterized by declining fertility rates. The United States Census data indicates a record-high percentage of women between ages 30 and 44 who have never had children, contributing to a fertility rate of 1.8 children per woman, below the population replacement rate of 2.1.
(From LEO, Brave)

The expected post-COVID marriage and baby boom never materialized to but a shadow of what was expected. Auxillary information confirms this:
https://www.reuters.com/legal/davids-bridal-avoids-shutdown-with-no-cash-bankruptcy-sale-2023-07-14/
https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/covid-still-cuts-diamond-ring-sales-6318658/

Millennials are the most barren of any (barely) fertile demographic in US history. Unless Zoomer chicks start busting them out ASAP in Post WW2 numbers starting today, there is no coming back. I'm talking Zoomer Gals need to start having 3 by 30 like it's 1957, a birth year that has not been equalled in US history. Needless to say this is highly unlikely for a variety of reasons.

Keep in mind this is death, not ill health, and the lifespan of Boomers has been revised downward for the first time in postwar history, by 3-4 years.

Steven Santanafan might live to 80, but not displayed is that he can't climb stairs at 72 and loses the ability to wipe his own ass entirely at 75.

The future is either Eurabia or Japan, pick your poison.

The last can be fixed

AmericanKulak says

I'm referring to the birthrate of Millennial women.

Ahh, got it. I agree with that but you're talking about generation "(whatever comes after Z)" and I wasn't counting on them to buy my house anyway. So for most of us GENx'ers I think there will be plenty of buyers by the time we downsize to our death homes/ apartments.

As far as demographics - ehhh, what's so bad in a declining population? I know this gets sold as "the worst thing ever" but I have to ask "Why?". We are turning the country into a third world shit hole just so the S&P earnings can continue to grow by 3.5% per annum.

Will the US fail as a nation if our population shrinks? I submit that the quality of our population is much more important than our quantity.

Japan is the poster child for the 'demographic time bomb', but I look at that country with a little bit of envy. 99% homogenous culture, low crime, high tech, high standard of living. They've been in deflation since I was a kid, but are still an economic power. Shit, last person to leave turn off the lights - is it really so bad?!?

Maybe some of the things we've been sold are bull shit.

stfu says

Japan is the poster child for the 'demographic time bomb', but I look at that country with a little bit of envy. 99% homogenous culture, low crime, high tech, high standard of living. They've been in deflation since I was a kid, but are still an economic power. Shit, last person to leave turn off the lights - is it really so bad?!?

I don't know much about Japan but I reckon that their national model is not founded on their currency. How can any country change if its founded on its currency?

stfu says

Maybe some of the things we've been sold are bull shit.

Just wait until, "Robots are people too!"

WookieMan says

You'd have to be a retard not to make $100-150k as a couple

The world WookieMan lives in is truly amazing.

AmericanKulak says

The last can be fixed

But it's not.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

WookieMan says

You'd have to be a retard not to make $100-150k as a couple

The world WookieMan lives in is truly amazing.

What world is that? I'm 41. Prime earning years. I don't really know anyone making less than $70-80k/yr where I live on an individual basis. So a dual income home should easily pull $120k. I don't hang with college students. So not sure what is so far fetched in my world. $100k is on the low end in our network dual income.

I'm usually hanging out with people making $150k and above. They all have easy jobs. Some guys do side hustles like flipping cheap golf carts they upgrade as a hobby in their free time and do their insurance job during the day. Can make $30-40k/yr on the carts doing 4-6 hours/wk and $70k for the 9-5. 100% of my friends own their homes, like close friends. IL gets shit, mostly for the right reason, but there's a lot of money here to be made.

Wife's crews she sends out each guy makes about $90k year blue collar work and have the winter off (laid off) and paid unemployment. So $100-110K roughly. Usually do cash gigs when laid off. Single dude with no kids you're doing well. With a spouse you're easily in the $150k territory even if the wife is a lunch lady.

I'm not sure what world you live in or if you're implying this is a low or high range. $100-150k was the low end as well. My uncle makes $330k sitting on his ass in retirement. Aunt makes $110k in retirement. I don't know a single person I hang with that is having financial struggles. Go out and become a nurse. Let me know what that starting pay is for the first year. I think a lot of people got into the wrong fields and are poor because of it. And I know the rough "reported" median family income of $60k or so. That doesn't include cash tips. Include that and the median is closer to $70-80k annually.

So $100-150k with two earners is pretty normal. It's the losers, druggies and homeless that drag it down.

WookieMan says

What world is that?

I don't really know anyone making less than $70-80k/yr where I live on an individual basis. So a dual income home should easily pull $120k

That world ^^^.

The Anecdotal World of WookieMan that causes you to make universal statements that can be easily disproven. Only most don't bother because you then keep going off on your fantasy rant anyway.

And nobody gives a shit about how much your wife makes. Unless it is relevant...which it almost never is. Like now. Especially now given how we've all heard the same damn story like 20 times already.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

WookieMan says
What world is that?

I don't really know anyone making less than $70-80k/yr where I live on an individual basis. So a dual income home should easily pull $120k

That world ^^^.

Trailer park people make $70k as a family. That's two full time McDonalds jobs. The drag on median income honestly is what I listed above and whores that can't keep their pussy closed and get knocked up and can't work and go on food stamps.

You also have people that make income, but it's not part of the data. I can borrow $150k off my house right now tax free and it doesn't show as income. I don't know or care to know what state you live in but it's not hard to make money. I can't tell if you think my take is a low or high amount.

I'm in rural IL which is mostly blue collar working class. But everyone that I live around does well enough.

Explain what your issue is with what I'm commenting on? Do you think it's low or high? Explain why. My world is maybe above average, but normal to me. I'm not getting your take.

AmericanKulak says

SFBA is going to be one of the first to go, and it's already 'stealth happening', it just hasn't started to pick up exponential speed.

Do you live in the Bay Area? Just asking.

WookieMan says

I can borrow $150k off my house right now tax free and it doesn't show as income.

Oh, by the hairy dugs of Istar. That $150k is not taxed because it is not income. It is a debt, a liability that must be paid back with interest. In fact, getting an equity loan decreases your net worth, since you lose out with the origination fees and points. Putting your house up as collateral on a loan you must qualify for with real income does not mean your house made you money. An exception may be a reverse mortgage, but a reverse mortgage is a bad idea except for limited circumstances.

WookieMan says

I'm not getting your take.

Trailer park people make $70k as a family.

Tell us more bullshit about your wife. Go on!

You forgot to do that this time.

WookieMan says

You'd have to be a retard not to make $100-150k as a couple

So now it's 'Trailer park people make $70k as a family.' ?

Is your other account socal2 or something? Because you engage in the same goal post moving when your bullshit is caught out.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

But it's not.

It's not, but it can. It's because the Japanese Alphas while protecting Japan aren't realizing that Mid Men getting decent Pussy is the real Economic Motivator. Just like the Roman Empire, and every other degrading society, Women would rather be one of the C-Suites, Senator, or Wealthy Equite's side bitch along with 6 other gals, than be the Centurion or Farmer or 9to5 Joes' wife. Or at least a thug who is thrilling and bad ass.

That's the true fundamental of Economics. Money is just a stand in for Pussy Pull resources

Mid Range Dudes getting Regular Pussy builds civilization. THEN the love for the kids keep them going.

Japan can fix their situation very quickly, by implementing Patriarchy, reforming Divorce laws, and incentivizing children & home ownership.

We can do the same if we get Japan'd

B.A.C.A.H. says

Do you live in the Bay Area? Just asking.

No.

I'm going by reports of a Commercial Real Estate slowdown in a market that was once overheated and "Permanent Plateau'd" ... SFBA has now one of the highest office space vacancy rates in the nation at over 36% and rents/sq ft at 2015 price points. The latter despite the 2020-2023 inflation.

Worse than Seattle, Denver, Chicago, and other cities in difficulty.

(Holy Shit did Denver get to be a shithole 2008 vs. 2018)

AmericanKulak says

SFBA is going to be one of the first to go, and it's already 'stealth happening', it just hasn't started to pick up exponential speed.

AmericanKulak says

B.A.C.A.H. says

Do you live in the Bay Area? Just asking.

No.

American, I hope you are right.

I've lived in the same neighborhood of San Jose since 1968.

Life is miserable here because the region is over crowded making the congestion, traffic etc a nightmare and causing all sorts of distortions because housing cost is too high.

According to a real estate website the value of my sh*tbox 1200 sq ft home in an undesirable neighborhood went down from 1.3 M to 1.1 M in recent months. I wish it went down more, like to the 0.35 M it's assessed for (thank you, Proposition-13). Half the houses on my culdesac have people living in garages ("doubling/tripling up"), all working adults with jobs and cars (and hence no parking on the street). We need the stampede you cite.

There's no schoolagers anywhere because families cannot afford to live in the region. The only schoolagers on my culdesac live in the garage of someone else's home. Schools are closing all over the place.

And yet we still have homes being bought by a "pool" of adults, who appear to me to be extended family of immigrant Asians, buying-in like this is freaking Hong Kong, with their fleets of expensive European sedan cars. Two such sales on my culdesac in recent years.

So I dunno. 0.2 M "loss" on my residence looks like noise from here. Patrick created his website two decades ago out of frustration of ®ealtors telling him that "it's different here".
.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

Tell us more bullshit about your wife. Go on!

So you're a jealous loser. I'm used to this at this point in life. Not sure why I'm engaging. Trailer park people make more than you. It's upsetting, but get over it. Wife makes a shit load of money and I'm proud of her. Sorry you didn't find one and had to make a "sexy picture" thread on a random website to look at something you'll never get. I'm the crazy one though.

B.A.C.A.H. says

There's no schoolagers anywhere because families cannot afford to live in the region. The only schoolagers on my culdesac live in the garage of someone else's home. Schools are closing all over the place.

CA 1978 Prop-13 golden handcuffs!
Most existing shack owners can not move to keep almost zero property taxes unless move to a different state.
Also there is not much new building activity around for families with school age kids to move in to send them to schools.
This is the side effect of Prop-13. Prop-13 kills communities eventually but gradually. Watching few great school districts in south bay area are on their death row because of the lack of students. Without rental, the process would have been accelerated their closings.

WookieMan says

So you're a jealous loser

How is calling out your constant bullshit make me jealous or a loser?

Your constant INSUFFERABLE bullshit.

WookieMan says

Trailer park people make more than you.

How much do I make? I never told you. Again, more bullshit from you.

WookieMan says

Wife makes a shit load of money and I'm proud of her.

If true, good for you. For everyone else, don't give a shit. Especially when it isn't germaine to the topic at hand.

You have some severe problems upstairs, pal.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

If true, good for you. For everyone else, don't give a shit. Especially when it isn't germaine to the topic at hand.

You have some severe problems upstairs, pal.

This is a real estate thread. I know more than anyone here and I can promise that. I can promise I know more people in my personal network that know know you. I know their value/income. I know well over 100 lenders that are tops in the industry. Attorneys. I know owners of banks. Again a real estate thread.

There aren't problems upstair in my world. You constantly go after Socal2 even if he makes a valid comment, which he does. If he likes his EV who gives a shit. State you point and move on. You have to be right all the time and mostly aren't. Never admit a wrong take on something. You seem like a very insecure man.

You still haven't explained why you think my claim of $100-150k being mundane income is "my world." I'm not poor living in an inner-city ghetto where people don't even have jobs making it look like we're a poor nation. I'm sorry you live where you do, wherever that is. Uhaul has a business where you put stuff in a truck and move it to a new place. Maybe move to reality. I hear it's a great place.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

You have some severe problems upstairs, pal.

Yup! Use the ignore function and suddenly Patnet becomes much better.

stfu says

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

You have some severe problems upstairs, pal.

Yup! Use the ignore function and suddenly Patnet becomes much better.

Agree. I don't use it, but I'll call bull shitters out anytime. Someone being wrong is not right in my world. If you don't like it, just say goodbye. And I stay logged in all the time. So you'll just disappear outside of a quote. I don't log off to view posts.

stfu says

Shit, last person to leave turn off the lights - is it really so bad?!?

We don't turn off the lights in commercial buildings because we get to claim electricity bill as a expense on taxes or are we just lazy and foolish on this? Just asking.