patrick.net

@zzyzzx

Love the chart. The sharp rise in the 80s was obviously the "greed is good" era. Part of it was Regand pro growth anti regulation approach which dragged us out of the stagflation of the 1970s.

Despite the recession in the 90s the trend reverted to a new mean almost 10x higher than the generation before. This in my view is attributeable to the rise in dual income households, either as women entered the workforce or single parents picked up second (or third) jobs.

Most of us remember the tech bubble of the late 90s and early 2000s which began the hosing bubble and subsequent collapse on '08. Things reverted back to where they would have been absent a bubble.

This happens to be when I bought my house (2012) at a nice low rate for the time (3.5% for 30 yr fixed).

We're now over a decade on and this "everything bubble" is massive. Absent a structural shift there is going to be a day of reckoning.

It could be the market collapses (again). It could be the fed intervenes and lowers rates. Banks may also loosen lending standards if the feds let them. This should help keep the party going with punch in the bowl.

But I think worst case one of two outcomes is probable. 1) we end up like the Walton's. Multi generations or multi families under one roof, so that there are three, four or six incomes coming in. Or 2) transfer of housing stock via inheritance. Or a mix of both.

For as tough as it was 20 years ago when I first started shopping for a house, it's 10x more diffult today. Covid and work from home has permanently shifted the landscape. Here in the suburbs of NYC we've seen a new wave of "city folk" moving in.

"borrowed" from @peoplesunited rapture thread

Another bubble brewing as well:

The RTO clampdown is accelerating so all these folks who moved into (formerly) inexpensive areas to spend their big city bucks are in for an awakening. I'm already being bombarded by "price lowered" alerts in Tahoe area where yons of Goolag and Fuckbook peeps moved during scamdemic. (The Tahoe area is inexpensive only relatively to the Bay Area, of course, but still.)

RWSGFY says

The RTO clampdown is accelerating

THE ATTEMPT TO ENFORCE RTO is accelerating. All to save commercial real estate sunk costs. But the reality is different.

Firms that do not pay much for office space because they have WFH vs those that do have a competitive advantage. FB, Apple, Microsoft and Google have massive sunk costs in buildings. But they have near monopoly control of their markets but those markets or monopolies won't last forever. FB is all old ppl now. GenX or older.

Other firms don't enjoy that.

And the high value employees almost always get WFH privileges no matter what. Because when they don't, they go work where that is the case.

That in turn causes problems with the hoi polloi workers "How come 300 IQ Han gets to WFH but I don't? It's because I am a trans POC, right?"

Of course right now, mgmt probably wants a lot of these hires to quit anyway.

AmericanKulak says

Job Relocation, Divorce, Job Loss, Health & Death, and Retirement...

Job relocation isn't a big one. Most people aren't married anymore and one usually keeps the house anyway. Job loss you're an idiot if you can't find a new one. I can't work full time and get dozens of offers a month. Death the kids take over the estate and see all these real estate guru's and rent it out.

Retirement is probably the biggest, but Boomers with a brain have already done what they need to. They're either wealthy and can keep the big house or were empty nesters in the 2010's and downsized already. That played into the housing crash besides shit loans. Boomers are my parents friends, none of them are moving. My mom is but she has a unique property that isn't your average home or land.

I've said I'm the anecdotal guy. I see no Uhauls on the road. No moving trucks here in IL. New houses are being built. Prices can look like a bubble, but if the loans are solid I don't see a problem. I think it's more movement of people fleeing shit states with shit policies at this point. Everyone that left IL already did. Uhaul is stacked here. So little to no out of state movement.

I think CA and the Northeast are going to bring the national median down with their high home prices. It won't be a crash though nationwide like last time. It will look bad on paper, but likely only two regions. And that might not even happen for a while.

WookieMan says

one usually keeps the house anyway.

It's more typical that the house is ordered sold and the equity split.

You're looking at this as an R/E investor and not as Joe Average, for whom the home is the biggest "asset" he's ever had.

The Demographic Crunch is coming and is unavoidable. IL has been experiencing net migration and population loss for years and years now; and the huge influx of migrants and illegals still results in a net loss.

It's never been a worse time to buy.

BTW, massive rental collapse in Florida.

I'm starting to see 2+ beds under $2000 and even some old 3+ beds out for rental. You could barely find Studios or 1 beds. This is on the Beach.

Under $2000 in Palm Bay now, brimming with 90s houses (not townhouse, not apts) under $2000. 6 months ago there was nothing.

Thinking about it as I'm outgrowing my little Condo with kids growing up and mom (78) needing to move in shortly.

EDIT: And this is December, the WORST time to look for rentals.

AmericanKulak says

The Demographic Crunch is coming and is unavoidable. IL has been experiencing net migration and population loss for years and years now; and the huge influx of migrants and illegals still results in a net loss.

Not anymore. Given rates we're building pretty strong here. Not biased either. There's no homes for sale here. FL is a different story with different parts. People are moving out of Chicago now but still staying in state. FL probably has an overbuilding problem of houses, condos and apartments.

NY, CA have IL type exodus problems. We've for sure stabilized now though. Won't grow by any means, maybe still lose a little, but not a lot. If IL hit level 10, NY & CA are level 3-4 right now on the way to 10. That will decimate the national median which is the stat used to scare people and get clicks for media with no context to the story.

FL I think it's just tap the brakes on building for a year or two (mostly) and let demand catch up with inventory to level it out. You guys have had the influx of people that can actually retire already and likely overbuilt. Your average boomer is high 60-70 age wise. Past higher end SS collection age and 59-1/2 for IRA/401k with no penalty. Basically if you were 60 you should have retired and if you wanted a condo in FL already did it a decade ago. So they built to demand and it's drying up because everyone did it.

Time flies when you're having fun. Boomers that can't retire won't and will stay put. Those that can already did. We're a decade past that timeline. There's no mass movement of geezers. Or they stay put because they can afford to or can't because they're broke. We've crossed the Boomer moving threshold is my point. It's over.

WookieMan says

That will decimate the national median which is the stat used to scare people and get clicks for media with no context to the story.

What does this mean? Can you explain this, please.

gabbar says

WookieMan says

That will decimate the national median which is the stat used to scare people and get clicks for media with no context to the story.

What does this mean? Can you explain this, please.

Median national price. If you include NY, IL, CA or any states with an exodus moving into lower priced states the median price nationally goes down. It's a scare tactic to get clicks and views for ad revenue for media and real estate commentators. Meanwhile Nebraska, Wyoming, Arkansas or Alabama are doing just fine. And most states.

Ignore national median is all I'll say. It's a bull shit metric. Maybe look at your state, but here in IL go by county. People are staying in the state now, but just moving out of Chicago to cheaper homes/rent and better schools. Millennials are finally having kids and I think the even younger generation is having more kids too.

Point is 3 states could bring the national median down 10-20%. Looks awful. It's because it's dictated by coastal states. Focus on your state and county level values. If people are leaving, the higher end homes will lose the most and others will follow. If CA doesn't sell 300 $30M homes and cuts them to $20M, that moves the national median. Same with NYC. Condos and houses drop $5-10M median goes lower.

Thing is generally no one is losing in those markets. Sure they lost money but now the rest of the country feels like it's a crash and panic. The loans are good now for the most part. It's inventory and delinquencies to keep an eye on. Not national median.

WookieMan says

Ignore national median is all I'll say.

I say that as well. Median SALE price is over pumped because top buyers who don't feel econ pressure can still buy, giving a false impression. Inventories are rising while closed sales are collapsing, distorting the reality. Lender Vigilantism going the opposite way of Fed rate cuts.

Rents and Time on Market and Average LIST price are better metrics.

Where do we from here? Is this stagflation? I paid $16 for a sandwich yesterday. In Cleveland!
What are all the real estate agents, brokers, mortgage officers, home inspectors etc. doing and are going to be doing in the next few years? Layoffs in IT are happening and outsourcing is booming.

Since we are talking about FL in this thread. One family decided to sell their condo in FL and move back to Cleveland because they like the access to Cleveland Clinic in Cleveland! They plan to vacation in FL but the condo is sold.

gabbar says

Where do we from here? Is this stagflation? I paid $16 for a sandwich yesterday. In Cleveland!
What are all the real estate agents, brokers, mortgage officers, home inspectors etc. doing and are going to be doing in the next few years? Layoffs in IT are happening and outsourcing is booming.

America is struggling with being American vs selling america out to highest bidder.

So, when do the wheels fall off?

GNL says

So, when do the wheels fall off?

no one knows. 2019 was falling off, so they did pandemic and mass bailouts to inflate economy. can never time it. last 2 years of 30% increased was all inflation driven.

.

https://www.newsweek.com/us-housing-market-mirroring-2008-bubble-real-estate-analyst-2005520

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AD says

.

https://www.newsweek.com/us-housing-market-mirroring-2008-bubble-real-estate-analyst-2005520

.

if it’s on a news it’s opposite of reality. news are always selling pump and dump schemes for the wealthy. they were screaming “buy now or price out forever” during actual bubble. and “it’ll never recover” when it collapsed. so that’s my opinion from life experience.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

if it’s on a news it’s opposite of reality. news are always selling pump and dump schemes for the wealthy. they were screaming “buy now or price out forever” during actual bubble. and “it’ll never recover” when it collapsed. so that’s my opinion from life experience.

This time the Blackrocks are getting fucked. And they own entire neighborhoods that they simply dump w/o regards to the normal considerations individual home owners contend with.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

AD says

.

https://www.newsweek.com/us-housing-market-mirroring-2008-bubble-real-estate-analyst-2005520

.

if it’s on a news it’s opposite of reality. news are always selling pump and dump schemes for the wealthy. they were screaming “buy now or price out forever” during actual bubble. and “it’ll never recover” when it collapsed. so that’s my opinion from life experience.

when the Patel's, Gupta's and Singh's buy with their LLCs , then you know you are close to bottom for housing market

a Singh bought this townhome recently , and they bought it with a LLC out of Boulder, Colorado

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1741-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/121153821_zpid/

.

Or it's normal. Also 50-70% less houses were built in most places as builders went under in 2006-08. Takes a decade to build up a new business like home building. No one wanted to after the crash and then covid hit. Boomer builders are retiring as well. Our house is our builders last house.

Between trades, very little new is getting built and much of it is rentals. Here in IL they're doing panelized for apartments, so they can frame a 4 to 8 unit townhouse structure for $8k/unit tops. Slap some shit siding and roofing on. Toss some bulk purchased shit appliances and it's built for $100k with labor. Most of these are rentals. Tack on $10-20k for land and you've got $120k units that rent for $1,800 or $2K.

Existing and new homes are a thing of the past in the current climate. It will change at some point, but demographically the boomers are moved or staying. So that argument is crap. We're going to have sideways value for a while until or if family formation in younger generations start. Sub 40.

WookieMan says

Or it's normal. Also 50-70% less houses were built in most places as builders went under in 2006-08. Takes a decade to build up a new business like home building. No one wanted to after the crash and then covid hit. Boomer builders are retiring as well. Our house is our builders last house.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST

It's been over a million most of the 21st Century.

AmericanKulak says

It's been over a million most of the 21st Century.

That's national. Places like Nashville, Austin, Miami, Boise, Denver, Phoenix and the likes have been dragging the building numbers upward. Most other places are not seeing that much new building. I look at it regionally. Even Wisconsin that sucked a bunch of IL residents in doesn't have that much building. Fly over country is not really building many homes. We are but it's not remotely close to the 90's and early 2000's. So we drag national numbers down. These other hipster cities are making up for it.

I dunno.

The trend is your friend... Until it ends.

Demographics cannot be changed for at least a generation if the change was to start today. There's going to be a housing collapse nationally, an IL, CA, NJ, NY, etc. will be ground zero for the Demographic Neutron Bomb.

In ten years half the Boomers will be dead. In less than that a huge chunk will need assistance with Daily Living, including the inability to routinely walk up stairs.

As it stands now, Milennials will be well below their replacement rate. The key for replacement rate is women starting to have children by their mid 20s at the latest. If Girldads want to be grandparents, their best bet is to control their adult daughters with an iron first, vet all men, and marry them off as soon as possible, incentivizing them with bribes for have babies as soon as possible on one hand, and suggesting the problem in all marriages can be solved by having another child. Men aren't the problem, women are. Most men can be fathers in their 50 with minimal effort.

To facilitate this, near-employment (ie not in the middle of the Midwest in a one-traffic light town) housing has to be affordable early for people with modest jobs (preferrably 20% below median worker income), and market wages have to be paid (no glutting the labor market with labor, skilled or unskilled)

AmericanKulak says

Demographics cannot be changed for at least a generation if the change was to start today. There's going to be a housing collapse nationally, an IL, CA, NJ, NY, etc. will be ground zero for the Demographic Neutron Bomb.

Chicago will fold. IL as a whole is solid. Two income earners in my town can easily stay under the 3x's rule. $250-300k is the pricing here. You'd have to be a retard not to make $100-150k as a couple. If you can't do that you just rent. It's not complicated.

They're not giving out loans to losers like 2006. No crash coming where I live. FL might be another story with NY/NJ retirees moving down there. Fact is most boomers that own have equity. The kids will sell it for what they can get. A lot of them will also live to 90 and even 100. Boomer if they haven't died yet probably have 20 years left. That's a paid off house outside of a reverse mortgage. That's where your housing crash comes from. We're easily good for a decade or two.

AmericanKulak says

As it stands now, Milennials will be well below their replacement rate.

Can you cite your source for this?

Everything I read says that there are already more Millennials than boomers - with both around 72 million. There are 65 million Xers and almost 69 million Zers.

I think there will be a Z'er or M'er that will happily overpay for my (too big) house when I'm ready to sell it.

TBH - I saw an article today about this subject that claims that boomer houses aren't where M'er's want to live. It talks about "20 million homes" coming on the market as the boomers die out, but these are not in big coastal cities where the M'er's want to live. I laugh - as if M'er's are the first generation to be young in the city just long enough to hook up and get the hell out of there to somewhere safe so they can raise kids.

WookieMan says

Nashville area is going to get the shit beat out of it in my opinion.

I live outside of Nashville in a high-end area. Houses here are still selling and prices have stayed relatively flat. People are still moving here, so demand is high. Just an observation.

@AmericanKulak there’s a flaw in your argument. it assumes society will not readjust itself. it will. we lived as species for thousands of years without needing permanent inflation to keep going. So i think you worry too much over something that’s not actual danger.

porkchopXpress says

WookieMan says

Nashville area is going to get the shit beat out of it in my opinion.
I live outside of Nashville in a high-end area. Houses here are still selling and prices have stayed relatively flat. People are still moving here, so demand is high. Just an observation.

Future prediction on my end. If you can make $40-60k/house you tend to over build. Demand is there now no doubt. But I see places like Nashville and Austin taking a beating in the next 5 years at some point.

Where I live in IL is cheap. Nashville as a city can eat a turd. Only driven on the highway through the burbs, but doesn't look bad. Similar to suburban Chicago. Prices have a low ceiling I guess is my point in some of these areas. It's going to come down. If I could pee on a city Nashville and NOLA would be in the top 5. I won't visit San Fransisco or New York ever again, so not on the list at all. Even if the family wants to see it. I'll get a hotel 60 miles out and they can check it out.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

AmericanKulak there’s a flaw in your argument. it assumes society will not readjust itself. it will. we lived as species for thousands of years without needing permanent inflation to keep going. So i think you worry too much over something that’s not actual danger.

Casey-Shiller research the opposite: there has always been inflation as far back as reliable records are available. Yes, even when money was made out of fancy metals.

RWSGFY says

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

AmericanKulak there’s a flaw in your argument. it assumes society will not readjust itself. it will. we lived as species for thousands of years without needing permanent inflation to keep going. So i think you worry too much over something that’s not actual danger.

Casey-Shiller research the opposite: there has always been inflation as far back as reliable records are available. Yes, even when money was made out of fancy metals.

Especially when money was made out of fancy metals: case in point the horrible inflation in Portugal and Spain after shitload of gold was brought in from the Americas.

WookieMan says

Chicago will fold. IL as a whole is solid. Two income earners in my town can easily stay under the 3x's rule. $250-300k is the pricing here. You'd have to be a retard not to make $100-150k as a couple. If you can't do that you just rent. It's not complicated.

The Demographic Neutron bomb will be accompanied by a Blue City implosion as finally a few brave companies lead the way in relocating elsewhere, like Tulsa or Des Moines. Exactly as what happened to Gary, Indiana or Detroit, Michigan.

The Kill Zone will then extend to the Affulent Suburbs where the AMEX suits live along with their lawyers, yoga instructions, podiatrists, then further and further out the burbs. The "Killer Commute" exurbs 1-2 hours out will be burned and fast. In fact they will be among the first outlying areas to decline, since the Killer Commuters often are both the most savvy and are living there... to avoid the high cost of the city/closer burbs

SFBA is going to be one of the first to go, and it's already 'stealth happening', it just hasn't started to pick up exponential speed. Call it the very beginning of the right shoulder of the chart pattern. There will be a "false upward" movement as midwits attempt to take advantage of a 'minor downturn' to 'buy the dip'.

There is literally no reason for most of the wealth producing industries in Chicago to remain there; it's just the "Outside the Box Financial Experts" are too slow or cowardly to accept that the insurance company or algo creators can work from Little Rock and save big.

stfu says

Can you cite your source for this?

I'm referring to the birthrate of Millennial women.

Declining Fertility Rates: The millennial generation (born between 1981 and 1996) has been characterized by declining fertility rates. The United States Census data indicates a record-high percentage of women between ages 30 and 44 who have never had children, contributing to a fertility rate of 1.8 children per woman, below the population replacement rate of 2.1.
(From LEO, Brave)

The expected post-COVID marriage and baby boom never materialized to but a shadow of what was expected. Auxillary information confirms this:
https://www.reuters.com/legal/davids-bridal-avoids-shutdown-with-no-cash-bankruptcy-sale-2023-07-14/
https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/covid-still-cuts-diamond-ring-sales-6318658/

Millennials are the most barren of any (barely) fertile demographic in US history. Unless Zoomer chicks start busting them out ASAP in Post WW2 numbers starting today, there is no coming back. I'm talking Zoomer Gals need to start having 3 by 30 like it's 1957, a birth year that has not been equalled in US history. Needless to say this is highly unlikely for a variety of reasons.

Keep in mind this is death, not ill health, and the lifespan of Boomers has been revised downward for the first time in postwar history, by 3-4 years.

Steven Santanafan might live to 80, but not displayed is that he can't climb stairs at 72 and loses the ability to wipe his own ass entirely at 75.

The future is either Eurabia or Japan, pick your poison.

The last can be fixed

AmericanKulak says

I'm referring to the birthrate of Millennial women.

Ahh, got it. I agree with that but you're talking about generation "(whatever comes after Z)" and I wasn't counting on them to buy my house anyway. So for most of us GENx'ers I think there will be plenty of buyers by the time we downsize to our death homes/ apartments.

As far as demographics - ehhh, what's so bad in a declining population? I know this gets sold as "the worst thing ever" but I have to ask "Why?". We are turning the country into a third world shit hole just so the S&P earnings can continue to grow by 3.5% per annum.

Will the US fail as a nation if our population shrinks? I submit that the quality of our population is much more important than our quantity.

Japan is the poster child for the 'demographic time bomb', but I look at that country with a little bit of envy. 99% homogenous culture, low crime, high tech, high standard of living. They've been in deflation since I was a kid, but are still an economic power. Shit, last person to leave turn off the lights - is it really so bad?!?

Maybe some of the things we've been sold are bull shit.

stfu says

Japan is the poster child for the 'demographic time bomb', but I look at that country with a little bit of envy. 99% homogenous culture, low crime, high tech, high standard of living. They've been in deflation since I was a kid, but are still an economic power. Shit, last person to leave turn off the lights - is it really so bad?!?

I don't know much about Japan but I reckon that their national model is not founded on their currency. How can any country change if its founded on its currency?

stfu says

Maybe some of the things we've been sold are bull shit.

Just wait until, "Robots are people too!"