patrick.net

WookieMan says

Just answer. It's a question.

What? That you are full of shit? Not a question.

WookieMan says

Based on this line of conversation I'm guessing $60k.

Why should I tell you when you claim to already 'know' from your network of contacts?

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

WookieMan says

Based on this line of conversation I'm guessing $60k.

Why should I tell you when you claim to already 'know' from your network of contacts?

Because you don't know anyone so how would I know? You look at boobs all day on a computer screen. Generally that's a gas station job. So maybe $45k? Maybe I was giving more credit than was due. You got all sensitive at the $150k amount. So clearly I hit the potential ceiling and triggered you. It's okay.

WookieMan says

Because you don't know anyone so how would I know?

You claimed that you did. You do that shit all the time. Then you use said made up crap as a strawman to push some BS attack to 'prove your bullshit points'.

Like a broken record.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

WookieMan says

Because you don't know anyone so how would I know?

You claimed that you did. You do that shit all the time. Then you use said made up crap as a strawman to push some BS attack to 'prove your bullshit points'.

Like a broken record.

Oh god, strawman territory now. Jesus christ. This conversation goes away if you just say what you make and how my comment about income was not answered. You keep avoiding it.

You took offense to my $100-150k income comment. Explain why? You clearly make less at this point and got offended. That's okay if you're happy. If you're not, don't take it out on me because I do well. Jealousy is a bad disease to have. Deal with it daily coming at me.

WookieMan says

You took offense to my $100-150k income comment

No I didn't. You have some real probs keeping what you dream up in your head vs. with reality.

You're also obsessed on what you think I make. And you claim your 'network of contacts' would have told you what I make.

All because you are desperate to defend the bullshit claim that you KNOW what ppl can make and if they don't you disparage them because then some point you made turns into bullshit.

Or what they pay in property tax. Or what they can make at McDonald's. Or about housing prices.

Or even some stupid BS rant where you claim with me 'double posting a meme' on different threads when I did not. Jesus Christ!

Still no answer. You could just lie. You can't even do that well.

Fact is I'll never meet you in my life. Just answer a question. You seem offended that I thought $100-150k is easy to make. It is. Maybe not for you I guess, hence the negativity.

WookieMan says

Still no answer

WTF is your problem?

WookieMan says

You seem offended that I thought $100-150k

That is ALL in your fucking head. And it keeps changing! Also ALL in your fucking head. Just like it is in your head that you have this 'network of contacts' that told you what I made...except when that all magically disappears from your head and then you demand I tell you what I make....OBSESSIVELY so.

AGAIN: WTF is your problem?

WookieMan says

hence the negativity.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

WookieMan says

Still no answer

WTF is your problem?

You came at me chief. I have something like 14k comments I think. Call me out where I've been wrong. Might take a while, but I'll own it if you find something.

WookieMan says

You came at me chief.

Yeah, I called you out on your made up bullshit. You doubled down and now you are well into Crazy World.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

WookieMan says

You came at me chief.

Yeah, I called you out on your made up bullshit. You doubled down and now you are well into Crazy World.

What bull shit? Name something.

WookieMan says

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

WookieMan says

You came at me chief.

Yeah, I called you out on your made up bullshit. You doubled down and now you are well into Crazy World.

What bull shit? Name something.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

WookieMan says

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

WookieMan says

You came at me chief.

Yeah, I called you out on your made up bullshit. You doubled down and now you are well into Crazy World.

What bull shit? Name something.

I've met children that are better trolls. Keep it coming. I'm literally laughing at your comments now.

@DOGEWontAmountToShit

Wookieman had nothing to do with marking your insult as personal. That was a different user, and it was me who agreed that it's personal.

50 shades of ad hominem incriminum.

Up until Work from home became a thing, you'd have an urban center with (generally) concentric rings, from the suburbs to the exbirbs to the rural areas. Prices ebbed and flowed within each ring depending on commute time, taxes, school quality, etc. The pendulum also swings between "let's get away from the city" to " the city is where it's at", in roughly twelve year cycles.

I'd also reckon that most of us live or work near one of these major metro areas. NYC, San Fran, Chicago, LA, Boston, DC, etc.

If your a working professional in one of these areas, a $70k base salary isn't all that high of a bar to clear. Particularly if you have been in your chosen field for 10 or even 20 years. Add in a partner who works, even part time, and a $100,000 is suddenly within reach for many.

The issue is that home prices have far outpaced incomes. Too come up with even a 10% down payment for a first time home buyer is going to be a stretch without assistance from a third party be it a rich Uncle, a parent or a government subsidized program. In my area "starter" homes go for $400k plus. It's hard for a young couple to save the $40k to $50k they will need. So the average homebuyer trends older.

It was that way twenty years ago when I first started looking for a house. Then the bubble burst, the bottom dropped out of the market, and in time, things bounced back.

I do think that a shifting demographic combined with the remote work option for some will change how cities and urban areas evole over the next decade... But urban areas still seem to be where wealth concentrates.

As for me I prefer having the city at arms length. Good to go for a day trip or a quick overnight but would want to schlep day in and day out.

WookieMan says

Getting taken advantage of. I simply don't play that game. When you have nothing to lose you have all the leverage. $2M in untouchable money and assets. I also have connections. Everything legal.

You are a yokel. $2M in "assets" isn't squat when it comes to influencing local officials. In fact, I am very sure that most of my neighbors have over $2M not including their house. Just a few miles down the road is neighborhood of $10M homes, and a quick look at public records shows they did not get a break either. Also, as I said on a prior post, I was on the phone with the actual county assessor for at least 1/2 hour while he explained in detail why my assessment was going to stay at the increased level.

And just how is your $2M "untouchable?" Is it the cash value of a disability annuity or pension? Inherited IRAs? Are you including the value of your wife's life insurance if she should die?

HeadSet says

And just is your $2M "untouchable?" Is it the cash value of a disability annuity or pension? Inherited IRAs? Are you including the value of your wife's life insurance if she should die?

Untouchable. Another $2M if we're talking life insurance. Her or I die and it's $4M at 41-42 years of age. Not including equity in our house. At a conservative interest rate of 2% I'm looking at $80k per year. Doing nothing and not draining the $2M or if one of us dies $4M. I'm retired now basically. Wife could be too. Just have 6 more years with kids and we're done at 48 roughly.

The office-debt meltdown keeps getting worse. The motto in 2024 was “Survive till 2025” via extend-and-pretend. But now what?

Meanwhile another month went by and another monthly high for the Case/Shiller.

This with interest rates higher than they started last year and higher property taxes and much higher insurance.

Misc says

Meanwhile another month went by and another monthly high for the Case/Shiller.

This with interest rates higher than they started last year and higher property taxes and much higher insurance.

Look at credit cards. People want to keep their houses. Those numbers are up bigly for day to day purchases. Not sure what Trump can do. Biden was an absolute failure of a leader on so many levels. Clinton, Bush and Obama having two consecutive terms regardless of how you feel about them led to some stability.

We'll see if Trump can right the ship in 4 years. He's already trying. Not sure how quickly he can extinguish this dumpster fire he's left with. This is a shit show right now. Where is Biden? Don't care about Harris as she's a dumb ass. I think everyone has just gone on vacation till the 20th.

WookieMan says

Biden was an absolute failure of a leader on so many levels.

Although they say don't mistake incompetence for malice, it is also important to not mistake malice for incompetence.

Misc says

Meanwhile another month went by and another monthly high for the Case/Shiller.

For houses, yes.

Mortgage applications are in the toilet, homebuilders are building SFHs at a 2006 pace. Completed sales are like the early 90s but now we have 20-30% more population





https://wolfstreet.com/2024/12/30/buyers-strike-continues-pending-home-sales-remain-deep-in-the-frozen-zone-though-up-a-tad-from-rock-bottom/

Homeloaners are up the River in Egypt as usual. "Ed across the street sold his house for $500k not long* ago! Just let Trump get the rates down and I'll show Ed by selling mine for $550k! "

* Not long ago = 2022

Blackstone is selling. His most recent video has data on the Blackstone and their and other Holding Companies, letting go of 3-5% of their inventory in TX and FL, where their biggest shares are.
Blackstone dumping in FL
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2BZbCbGN0g&t=57s

Blackstone and others dumping in TX, the #1 state for Investor-owned SFH:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSrstSITn7A

"I'm smarter than Wall Street" - Harry Homeseller Holding Out

Fuck the rates. It's the underlying price that's the stumbling block. Mortgage rates don't impact property taxes or homeowner's insurance; the price does.

AmericanKulak says

Mortgage applications are in the toilet, homebuilders are building SFHs at a 2006 pace. Completed sales are like the early 90s but now we have 20-30% more population





https://wolfstreet.com/2024/12/30/buyers-strike-continues-pending-home-sales-remain-deep-in-the-frozen-zone-though-up-a-tad-from-rock-bottom/

Homeloaners are up the River in Egypt as usual. "Ed across the street sold his house for $500k not long ago! Just let Trump get the rates down and I'll show Ed by selling mine for $550k! "

Not long ago = 2022

Someone needs to tell this guy that: https://patrick.net/post/1383080/2025-01-03-housing-prices-will-not-go-down

"So? Look at those early 20s and mid 30s peaks!"

And we haven't built 50-60M housing units these past 3 decades? Is the boomer housing going to disappear along with the boomers?

Trump will neither own a housing crash nor runaway inflation. Prices will go up slowly is my prediction, 1-5 percent per year not more. Also house building has maintained a fairly slow pace since covid, builders are cautious amd hesitant. Not a lot of new construction has hit the market, reducing overall supply

mell says

"Trump will neither own a housing crash nor runaway inflation. Prices will
go up slowly is my prediction, 1-5 percent per year not more."

No because we are having an artificial housing bubble for the last 30 years or so going back to
Alan Greenspan. My take is that under Trump the housing bubble will collapse.

The_Deplorable says

mell says

"Trump will neither own a housing crash nor runaway inflation. Prices will
go up slowly is my prediction, 1-5 percent per year not more."

No because we are having an artificial housing bubble for the last 30 years or so going back to
Alan Greenspan. My take is that under Trump the housing bubble will collapse.

For that to happen you need a significant recession. with a lot of 3% mortgage holders losing their jobs, otherwise these 15 and 30 yr mortgages are a lock and people will stick with it. Don't see a significant recession happening under Trump. People have been calling for the collapse since this site existed and it never happened. The closest we came was 2008 but then they pumped a lot of money into the sector and it hasn't left it yet, mostly people sitting on fixed low apr mortgages. Not saying RE is a good investment right now, but no crash in sight imo

mell says

"For that to happen you need a significant recession."

No. Artificial low interest rates for 30 plus years is a fraud of gargantuan proportions
and this is coming to an end under Trump.

The_Deplorable says

mell says

"For that to happen you need a significant recession."

No. Artificial low interest rates for 30 plus years is a fraud of gargantuan proportions
and this is coming to an end under Trump.

All countries around the world practice zirp yet, what it causes is inflation and I agree with you about fraudulent, but willing to bet prices will rise around 2-3% 2025, they rose 4% in 2024. Zirp is not directly correlated with RE, just one factor. There is a chance of a significant downturn in RE if interest rates rise to double digits and beyond, not without it all else being equal imo

The_Deplorable says

mell says
"For that to happen you need a significant recession."

No. Artificial low interest rates for 30 plus years is a fraud of gargantuan proportions
and this is coming to an end under Trump.

We're at historic normal or slightly normal rates right now. As mell said the rates don't matter if people don't sell. That's where we're at. The 20-35 crowd just keeps renting. No buyer demand. Owners have good rates. The people moving is for jobs now, not location or lifestyle. That was done after 2012-2018 roughly.

If anything housing will continue to rise under Trump because if he reduces the cost of energy the cost of building plummets. No one is buying is the problem. So builders are reluctant. You're going to see a +5% or -5% depending where you live the next 4 years. Coastal areas will be down most likely and TX. No crash coming.