patrick.net

anon5525 says

because immigration will not go down.

Yes and no.

anon5525 says

There is no space in any urban area to build more housing. None.

That's funny. Because there is plenty of housing being built in businesses that have been torn down.

anon5525 says

So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand,

Demand is already falling.

What planet do you live on?

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

That's funny. Because there is plenty of housing being built in businesses that have been torn down.

This should happen. Repurposing office buildings as apartments makes no economic sense. Office buildings aren't built like apartments. However, even this is just a stop-gap measure if the population just keeps rising due to immigration.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

Demand is already falling.

What planet do you live on?

Prices being out of reach isn't the same as demand falling. Everyone needs shelter. The population is the demand.

anon5525 says

Prices being out of reach isn't the same as demand falling.

Sorry. Data is proving you totally wrong.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

Sorry. Data is proving you totally wrong.

Please show.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

anon5525 says

Prices being out of reach isn't the same as demand falling.

Sorry. Data is proving you totally wrong.

Where? Not giving away my area, but not happening here at all. Northern IL is all I'll say (not Chicago). No one can find rentals or houses for sale. We're at the phase where you have to build at this point.

Boomers are dying too that will mess with Phoenix metro and places like Fort Myers. And hipster cities like Austin and Nashville probably over built.

Just closed on a construction loan, it ain't easy to get a loan if you don't have the income. Poor people are getting smashed and have to live in shit holes. Average to slightly above average is doing fine. Super wealthy areas I could see a decline though for sure which drags down the national median, which I ignore. So rich people lose money, oh well. They don't even care. Usually they don't move.

anon5525 says

Please show.

WTF do you mean?

It's been posted on PatNet extensively. You can also Google it.

Do it yourself.

Qualifier to be in the demand calculation is the financial ability to purchase, so those that may want to buy a house but are financially unable to are not being counted OP. Not sure if you understand this or you are trying to say that they should be included? There’s a shit load of people millennial and Gen X who are spending money on “entertainment” and others excessive purchases rather than living like they actually want a house and saving up. That’s a discipline problem, along with taking out loans for whatever the bank will give them even though they shouldn’t, which has the effect of pushing prices up.

Homeloaners always remember the Neighbor down the street who sold for $500k "just a few months ago" when it was really over 2 years ago.

The same Homeloaner "Doesn't believe" current listing prices in Zillow or Redfin showing comparables going for $430k.

Until another neighbor with a home as large and new or larger and newer and nicer than his goes for $419k

Inventory in the COVID (and pre-COVID) booming cities like Austin, San Antonio as well as Atlanta and Orlando are double or more COVID levels and on par with the levels of ~2013.

Property taxes, homeowners insurance are all up 20-30% in the past few years in most of the country. Places like Texas and Florida already had insurance and/or taxes amnong the top 10 nationally before the increases.

Real Estate permanent plateauers are ignoring not only demographic shifts, but the double digit increases in unavoidable costs, period.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

WTF do you mean?

It's been posted on PatNet extensively. You can also Google it.

Do it yourself.

The source "just trust me bro" is not reputable.

anon5525 says

The source "just trust me bro" is not reputable.

I never said 'trust me bro'. I said, 'Do your own fucking research.' I am not your Google bitch. Especially when it comes to the equivalent of proving that the sky is blue.

After all the crap you just posted, your position is the one that has a reputation problem.

Demand is a curve that's a function of price. It's how many units will be sold at a given price, not what the price is. The optimal price is where the demand and supply curves intersect. Demand isn't lowering in the long run -- it might drop a bit in the short term, but then rise again. Demand won't lower because the population keeps going up and America is all built out.

So unless Trump actually kicks out all the "asylum seekers" -- which I doubt -- demand isn't going down and prices will continue to rise in the long run. The "solution" that will be forced onto people will be the replacement of single family houses with tiny apartments. Apartments will also get smaller each decade until they are the coffin apartments you see in Japan.

anon5525 says

It's how many units will be sold at a given price, not what the price is.

No. Shit. Doesn't change that what you posted is wrong.

anon5525 says

population keeps going up and America is all built out.

Wrong and wrong.

anon5525 says

Demand isn't lowering in the long run -- it might drop a bit in the short term

How many years = long run?

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

I never said 'trust me bro'. I said, 'Do your own fucking research.' I am not your Google bitch. Especially when it comes to the equivalent of proving that the sky is blue.

After all the crap you just posted, your position is the one that has a reputation problem.

Don't get mad because I caused you bluff. You are wrong about a fact on the internet. You're not the first. Fine, I'll do the five-second Google search for ya. You're welcome.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Hits 17th Consecutive All-Time High in October

Normally, I'd say don't trust a book by its cover, or an article by its title, but in this case you can.



Just because you want to believe in something, doesn't make it true. And acting on false beliefs just harms yourself.

AmericanKulak says

How many years = long run?

The graph you posted shows "sales", not "demand". There's an important difference. Sales are down because prices are up. Demand is the curve that shows how many sales will occur at a given price point. The graph you are showing simply illustrates that sellers are waiting out buyers -- not surprising given how many have historically low interest rates -- not that the demand from buyers isn't there.

About half of Millennials have not bought a house yet. There are more Millennials now than Boomers. And Gen Z is coming into the market as well despite not being able to afford it. The demand is there because the population is there. Few people actually want to rent. It's less secure and it's throwing away money. Yes, sometimes it makes financial sense to rent, but only when the housing market is screwing over first-time buyers because demand is far higher than supply.

I'm not saying I like any of these facts, but they are the facts. If this was just "market fluctuations", then the Case-Shiller would have dropped to 100 many years ago. The so-called "housing burst" only took the Case-Shiller halfway back to "pre-bubble" levels. And now it's left the height of the 2007 "bubble" in the dust. This is the new norm.

anon5525 says

And Gen Z is coming into the market as well despite not being able to afford it.

Demand means willing and able to buy. If GenZ cannot afford it as you say, it would indicate that GenZ buyers are teaming up with others to buy the home. Are you seeing that in your area?

anon5525 says

About half of Millennials have not bought a house yet. There are more Millennials now than Boomers.

You're assuming the Millennials are in the same fiscal shape as Boomers. They are not.

Boomers saw 3-4x median worker income for the Al Bundy special buiilt in the 1970s so far from downtown. Millennials are looking at 6-7x median worker income for an Al Bundy special built in the 1970s OR a similar sized newer house at a further distance OR a much smaller townhouse at the same distance. For now.

Boomers were married more often; Millennials are majority single. Millies have far fewer kids, but having 1 or None doesn't make up for the housing price to income disparity. Having 1.25 kids or being a dog mom instead of 2.5 kids doesn't make the house only cost 3-4x median income.

Agree with anon here. While I believe housing will not do great in the next years due to the high interest environment and continued downturn in CRE, there is no cliff or crash anywhere in sight. My prediction is prices will keep going up with inflation, but no more, maybe even slightly below.

https://youtu.be/3hGhlvA08pM?si=AW7l8RanvahQhirq

Doge won’t amount to shit… that statement is right imo.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

Doge won’t amount to shit… that statement is right imo.

Some asshole on here will call me out on that IF ONE Doge recommendation actually gets implemented, I am sure.

What will most likely happen is that none do get enacted despite some tries. But instead, Vivek and Musk and Trump will spin something else as being DOGE -- like how the Inflation Reduction Act was never about inflation or reducing anything of the sort -- in order to fave face.

Still, I wouldn't mind being wrong about this.

anon5525 says

... because immigration will not go down.

you obviously are clueless as you do not know how illegal immigrants live like 4 illegals per bedroom

they pack them in like sardines within boarding houses for illegal immigrants

.

HeadSet says

Demand means willing and able to buy. If GenZ cannot afford it as you say, it would indicate that GenZ buyers are teaming up with others to buy the home. Are you seeing that in your area?

I wonder if this is Logan at Housing Wire that created this thread.

Good point Headset, as its all about price discovery and equilibrium price point.

This is a good article on Florida about how prices have gone up about 60% in last 5 years in Florida.

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-housing-market-facing-widespread-price-declines-2017199

The way I look at it is to go back 10 years and apply a 4% increase annually to the market value from 2014 to conservatively estimate the current market value.

Another way is to examine the peak price was in early 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3% and now it is 7%.

Home prices should be 60% of peak price based on mortgage affordability with a 10% drop in price for every 1% increase in the 30 yr mortgage rate.

However, household income has gone up about 25% since early 2022.

0.60 x 1.25 = 0.75

So home prices should be no less than 75% of the peak price set in early 2022 if the 30 yr mortgage rate remains 7%.

I see FHA and VA mortgage rates are almost at 6% now. I'd buy down 4 discount points to lower that to 5%.

That would cost 4% of the mortgage but it is like lowering the price 10% when examining the mortgage payment.

.

.

Houses are an instinctual purchase; men are motivated to buy them because a female instinctively wants to have a house and not an apartment.

She's got a "cave woman" instinct to need a cave of her own to raise her child in.

These feelings are deep and instinctive; men want pussy and women want a "cave" to move into.

I have had many dates and females asked me where I owned my house; when I said I rented they made comments. I don't care.

Other people come down to Baja Sur Mexico and buy condos and houses as "investments". They have a bunch of fees ($11,000 for a $150,000 place) and no way of making any actual money.

After I was at the point where I could put a million bucks into a checking account by moving a computer mouse, I didn't give a fuck how females thought about me being "just a renter."

I have never heard of a wildfire burning up a mutual fund account either.

clambo says

Houses are an instinctual purchase; men are motivated to buy them because a female instinctively wants to have a house and not an apartment.

She's got a "cave woman" instinct to need a cave of her own to raise her child in.

These feelings are deep and instinctive; men want pussy and women want a "cave" to move into.

I have had many dates and females asked me where I owned my house; when I said I rented they made comments. I don't care.

Other people come down to Baja Sur Mexico and buy condos and houses as "investments". They have a bunch of fees ($11,000 for a $150,000 place) and no way of making any actual money.

After I was at the point where I could put a million bucks into a checking account by moving a computer mouse, I didn't give a fuck how females thought about me being "just a renter."

I have never heard of a wildfire burning up a mutual fund account either.

Smart. And I'm saying this as a house owner. Unless you have kids and big family it's probably not necessary and you may be better off renting (also more mobile).

clambo says

I have had many dates and females asked me where I owned my house; when I said I rented they made comments. I don't care.

i had a girl at a party at my house once when i was about 21 yrs old...She asked me if I owned the house..I said: No, the banlk owns it and I just make payments on it. She walked away.......LOL

mell says

After I was at the point where I could put a million bucks into a checking account by moving a computer mouse, I didn't give a fuck how females thought about me being "just a renter."

Not upgrading your lifestyle when you get your first (and future) good job is the key to saving money until you reach your own FU money. This is freedom in the American sense.

Herewith another "Prince Harry" post, probably should be ignored, but here goes.

I'm renting a house near La Paz; the female owner inherited it, she's 45 and doesn't like working a shitty low paid job.

She said "I want to sell you my house. Several others say they want to buy it, but I want you to buy it. You can make me the beneficiary of the trust (in Mexico near the coast or border foreigners can't directly own property, so a trust owns it) and pay me just $100,000 (2 million pesos).
I said "how about you aren't the beneficiary and I pay 3 million pesos ($150,000), I may want to sell it someday."
"Who are these other people offering to buy your house?"
"My gay cousin; his boyfriend is rich. The neighbor from Monaco wants to pay 3,600,000 pesos ($180,000 USD).

"What will you do with the money?" I asked.
"I'll buy a couple of other houses nearby; I'll show them to you." We drove by them.
One was $50,000 (1 million pesos), the other much nicer $100,000 (2 million pesos).
"I'll rent them and live off the rental income; I want to be retired."

The person who can help make the transaction is a bilingual lawyer in La Paz; we can omit the "broker" or salesperson.
The fees included creating the trust, and a pretty high sales tax (in Mexico it's 16%).
So, my fees for buying the little house would be $11,000 USD.
Add to this my taxes for selling my annuity or mutual funds or whatever would be probably $18,000+
My total fees and taxes to both Mexico and US Treasury would be around $30,000 just to buy where I'm renting now.

What fees would she pay to buy the two other (one shitty) houses for $150,000?
Her fees would be about 114,000 pesos ($5700) for the shitty house, and 134,000 pesos ($6,700) for the nicer house.

For her to sell one house which I'm renting and buy two houses which she would rent out would cost us a combined $43,000 USD.

I asked her "So, how much would you be able to collect in rent for your two other houses?"
She didn't answer.
"What is the difference between renting me one house, and having two houses rented by others who may actually stop paying you?" (This happens in Mexico; renters have more rights than owners).

So, I proposed just paying her higher rent and doing nothing; she seemed very disappointed.

"So, have you actually seen the money that people have in an account to buy your house? Your cousin says his boyfriend will buy it, have you spoken to this boyfriend?"

"The neighbor from Monaco said he would trade his Porsche in addition to cash to buy the house."
(Monaco neighbor guy owns a very fancy Porsche, like the one Paul Walker crashed and died in.)

I started laughing: "So, nobody actually has shown you the fuckin money; they're talking about bartering a car to buy your house!"

My proposal was pay her higher rent and to prepay her a few months; this will put some money in her pocket.

She told me her previous (crazy, drinker, smoker, deceased, heart a tack ack ack) German boyfriend had paid the huge transaction fees about 6 times on properties he eventually sold. He also paid the lawyer lady $5,000 USD to assist him with applying for permanent residency in Mexico (I did this myself at the Miami Consulate and here in La Paz).

Moral: guys who can't do math and females (they never could) think renting sucks. I love renting.

mell says

Houses are an instinctual purchase; men are motivated to buy them because a female instinctively wants to have a house and not an apartment.

She's got a "cave woman" instinct to need a cave of her own to raise her child in.

These feelings are deep and instinctive; men want pussy and women want a "cave" to move into.

I have had many dates and females asked me where I owned my house; when I said I rented they made comments. I don't care.

Other people come down to Baja Sur Mexico and buy condos and houses as "investments". They have a bunch of fees ($11,000 for a $150,000 place) and no way of making any actual money.

After I was at the point where I could put a million bucks into a checking account by moving a computer mouse, I didn't give a fuck how females thought about me being "just a renter."

I have never heard of a wildfire burning up a mutual fund account either.

Would you interesting to hear wookieman's thoughts on this.

There are guys who also love houses; Brad Pitt and Nick Cage come to mind.

If I can't arrange to rent where I am for several years, I will likely want to buy a place too; I want to hang my paintings someplace, and use my Persian rugs and decorations, etc.

anon5525 says

Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.

Bullshit as far as cheap labor as a lot can be replaced by robots and machines even for very delicate and complicated harvest operations like for strawberries

https://advanced.farm/technology/strawberry-harvester/

I see robots cleaning the floors of hospital and hotels, and even Walmart now. And you all already had the pleasure of self check counters at Walmart, Publix, Winn Dixie, etc.

,

Not until SFH investors are forced to sell their SFH stock.
If that never happens, we will be like an Old Europe country where the nobility owns all of the land, and the masses just rent a flat.
With no hope of homeownership for the middle class. But even then this game can't keep playing out. I saw a crappy 3 bedroom house the other day. It wasn't even updated during the 2000's bubble. The investors that bought it, plan on renting it out for $4800 a month.

Really who in the hell can afford that? And those that can would consider it a $4800 shithole. There are much nicer places for that. Condos on the Beach in old buildings from the 50's are going for $6000 a month. It should be a $225K condo tops!

@AD Glad too see ya back. Been a while since you posted.

gabbar says

Would you interesting to hear wookieman's thoughts on this.

I bought an investment first. 2 flat in Chicago. With the future wife. Being a "man" and providing wasn't the going concern. I wanted an apartment for me and tenants could mostly pay the mortgage. That did not work out. We bought in 2006. We short sold it which is why I talk a lot about debt and people freaking out about it. Always a way out, don't freak or kill yourself.

Fact is you don't make major purchases for a woman, which includes a home or property of any kind. You do it for you. If you're single there's no point in being broke because you wanted a house thinking you'd get a chick. My job the last 10 years was to make my wife great at her job so I don't have to work. I succeeded. House had nothing to do with it and it shouldn't.

Now we're building a large house looking at the hole in the ground. She's happy, I'm happy. Point is don't do stuff to "get" women, work to lift them up. You'll have a mostly happy partner for life and can sit here on Patnet all day.... sometimes.

All of the other guys I know bought houses so they could keep their girlfriends or wives interested in them.

And I haven't been hallucinating the comments from females.

My favorite was just a couple of years ago: "You mean you don't own anything?"
"Just money."

clambo says

All of the other guys I know bought houses so they could keep their girlfriends or wives interested in them.

And I haven't been hallucinating the comments from females.

My favorite was just a couple of years ago: "You mean you don't own anything?"
"Just money."

Get the point, if those are the ladies you're encountering, you're in the wrong place. Run, don't walk from them.

My Mount Rushmore of Women are all millionaires. Women that I let seek ME out. I was an introvert. That drew attention to me. "Why isn't this guy attracted to me?" I just wouldn't talk to them because I was't that type of guy. I made the right pick at the end of the day, but I'd be well off either way. Looks and money wise. Being honest I was scared. The right one finally sold me on her. Deal with the family baggage but whatever. We're too busy so don't see them all that often.