patrick.net

I’m not sure housing will ever fall in value in any meaningful way.

1. Fiat
2. Job destroying tech
3. H1B et al
4. Endless immigration. Btw, Trump is only going to kick the criminal immies out.
5. One of the best ways of making $$ is
a. Owning lots of assets and then b. Making
it more and more difficult to produce those
same assets. Short supply raises prices.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

ForcedTQ says

steep interest rate increases to kill the value of homes like

WTF do you think 28% mortgage rates are?

You missed the entire first part of that sentence, you would have to have a situation like Japan. Where there is so much supply and not even the bodies to fill the homes.

ForcedTQ says

You missed the entire first part of that sentence, you would have to have a situation like Japan. Where there is so much supply and not even the bodies to fill the homes.

Everything is rentals now. Having lived it and watched my parents get wiped out in real estate, younger people don't want the "American Dream" for now. There's no demand and any potential supply is locked up in low interest rates or paid off.

It's not a boom and interest rates don't matter if people don't sell. If you're good at your 4% interest rate, why would you sell? 28% would just reduce inventory and those that "need" to move keep bumping the prices up. Low interest rates caused where we are now. Can't say it enough. Inventory. A crash is 12-18 months inventory and I don't see that anywhere.

ForcedTQ says

you would have to have a situation like Japan.

No.

Demand destruction is a permanent downward shift on the demand curve in the direction of lower demand of a commodity induced by a prolonged period of high prices or constrained supply.

WookieMan says

If you're good at your 4% interest rate, why would you sell?

Because you can't afford assisted living, or you died and your kids don't want to live in Del Boca Vista 55+ Community for Active Seniors, or there's no jobs in Rustbeltowaga, OH and dad really stopped maintenance about 10 years ago when he busted his hip.

"I tell you nobody has more stuffed wallabies than me. Did I tell you the guys in the Wallaby Association of America were floored by my collection? I already filled the Guest Bedroom! I'm leaving it for you, it's worth a Million Dollars I'm sure"

AmericanKulak says

WookieMan says

If you're good at your 4% interest rate, why would you sell?

Because you can't afford assisted living, or you died and your kids don't want to live in Del Boca Vista 55+ Community for Active Seniors, or there's no jobs in Rustbeltowaga, OH and dad really stopped maintenance about 10 years ago when he busted his hip.

"Seniors"/boomers already lost their home in the bust. They had to wait 4-7 years to buy again. The got low interest rates IF they bought again and there's no incentive to move. In home care if they have issues is cheaper than rent at a "facility."

The Boomer wave has already crashed. There's no new wave coming in and buying. They're all renting. No one is building. Lifestyles have changed and no one wants to sit in their house, apartment or whatever. Houses aren't important in the short term.

That said the kids will eventually buy homes. I give it 4-8 years. Unless they overbuild I don't see housing crashing for a long time. We experienced a once in a lifetime phenomenon in 2006.

You will own nothing and won’t be happy either.

How bubbles work. You sell your price-inflated crapshack for $1,000,000 netting $930,000 after commissions, fees and taxes. You buy a new price-inflated crapshack for $1,100,000. You have therefore bought the new crapshack for $170,000. Like dropping a pebble in a pond.

Applications drop because there is nothing worth buying. No one with a nice house and low rate is going to move. So there's nothing to buy. I don't get what is not to get about this? Builders stopped building. This isn't complicated.

Until we start getting 80 acre developments with 200 homes and a park, prices will keep rising. No builder is taking that risk at this time. Prices are where they are and will be for a while.

WookieMan says

Applications drop because there is nothing worth buying. No one with a nice house and low rate is going to move. So there's nothing to buy. I don't get what is not to get about this? Builders stopped building. This isn't complicated.

Until we start getting 80 acre developments with 200 homes and a park, prices will keep rising. No builder is taking that risk at this time. Prices are where they are and will be for a while.

Agreed there's nothing unusual about this. We would need to go into a deep recession for people to lose their homes. There's hardly any building activity atm. Also all these LA fires and chaos will actually put pressure onto entry to upper mid level housing in CA as many will likely downsize in the affected areas or move. You can bet the leftoid lesbo "coastal commission" will make it extremely hard for those displaced to rebuild anywhere near the coast (permits anybody?) as a final fuck you until they're voted out

^^^^ copium

Major housing issues. What's the group in America most likely to buy a home?

The minorities move back home where it's cheaper and they can live rich in their home country.

mell says

There's hardly any building activity atm.

Can confirm at least in Texas. My high school pal is pretty senior at the nations largest builder and told me a few weeks ago they've all but shut down.

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

mell says

There's hardly any building activity atm.

Can confirm at least in Texas. My high school pal is pretty senior at the nations largest builder and told me a few weeks ago they've all but shut down.

I'm the freak right now building, but it's custom, not cardboard box shit. The developer of the subdivision is still building. It's been 2 decades with no new construction in town though besides this year. We're 30-40 minutes within range of some big suburbs of Chicago with high paying jobs. So easy commute. No resale homes so we have light demand for people to build.

I see builders tapping the brakes for a year or 2. Apartments and townhome style developments as rentals will continue. Our house is our builders last house before retiring. We're in a weird spot with housing trades. Boomers are done. Millennials don't know how to build. That's why I don't see prices moving much over the next decade. There won't be new inventory outside of rentals.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

The new normal is that nobody wants to pay 6x income for a 1960s starter home or for a 5 bedroom McMansion Zero Lot for a couple or a guy and his dogs.

AmericanKulak says

The new normal is that nobody wants to pay 6x income for a 1960s starter home or for a 5 bedroom McMansion Zero Lot for a couple or a guy and his dogs.

So where are these people living?

HeadSet says

So where are these people living?

They rent.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

HeadSet says

So where are these people living?

They rent.

But isn't rent increasing as well?

HeadSet says

But isn't rent increasing as well?

I dunno about other states, but FL rents are collapsing.

It was a modest $100 decline in 2023, 2024 saw big cuts, continuing on until 2025.

Already by Summer 2024, rents were in freefall.
https://www.redfin.com/news/rents-fall-in-florida-austin-june-2024/

https://jaredjones.com/2024/09/19/landlords-panic-as-florida-rental-market-faces-major-decline/

Not only is it Landlords desperate to get somebody to come in and mitigate their 30% rise in HOA, Insurance, Property Taxes, but FL built 100k's of new multifamily units in the past two years - forced to finish by county/state bonding laws to prevent another 2008 when developers walked away from unfinished complexes

Once Trump slams the brakes on the migration wave it's hey hey mama going down.

Blackrock is already selling off in tranches. This site is run by a real estate research app developer:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wa5r73qp-U
Home Partners of America (Blackstone) taking losses to dump fast last fall North of Tampa.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2BZbCbGN0g

The smart money is abandoning AirBNB, SFH rental, etc. and did so starting early last year.

NO bailouts for investment properties.

Rents dropping in Texas too but I'm not sure if it's as much as Florida. Probably not.

AmericanKulak says

I dunno about other states, but FL rents are collapsing.

Not around here in coastal Virginia - rents are steadily increasing. House prices are falling, but the fall is from the rapidly increased prices from the last few years.

HeadSet says

Not around here in coastal Virginia - rents are steadily increasing. House prices are falling, but the fall is from the rapidly increased prices from the last few years.

Around here in San Antonio we have a net outflow of residents so our population is decreasing, which is rare here. Over 15K apartments were build recently too mostly sitting empty.

It was difficult to get tenants for one of my rent houses last summer. It took me 4 months, a pretty major remodel, and a huge drop in rents. It put my rent gross back to around where it was in 2017.

I have a couple of young Navy kids living there now that work at one of the NSA buildings here in town which is perfect. Some people bitch and moan about small mom and pop people like me taking up the housing stock but for renters like that we do provide a service.

It's the mega-corps buying up everything that are the assholes. I still rent my self. All 3 of my rent house are equivalent to one house and San Diego and maybe 3/4 in SF bay area.

Maybe I'll sell when I finally buy something to live in but until then it keeps me diversified.