0
0

New Thread439


 invite response                
2007 Apr 15, 5:24am   39,920 views  399 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

New math and new paradigm. How will they shape our future?

To advance, we must imagine the unthinkable and consider the impossible.

What are such unthinkable or impossible housing events? If we are creative enough, we may be able to analyze them to gain valuable insights.

#housing

« First        Comments 117 - 156 of 399       Last »     Search these comments

117   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Apr 16, 6:53am  

HARM,

That's why jury trials would be needed for a lot of these. If it was a buddy you'd know for years and thought was a decent guy and who did occasionally go hunting, had taken gun safely classes, just didn't own one himself because he only went very occasionally... that'd different than you having a few beers with him while he complains about his wife cheating on him and now leaving him for some other guy but hey, lemme borrow your gun to go duck hunting tommorrow.

Definately grey areas. The first one you'd hope the owner had no legal reprucussions. I'm sure he felt bad enough. The second one... well... I'd say loaning the gun was pretty irresponsible.

You CAN be found liable for loaning your car to your drunk buddy who kills people in many states.

The hope for the liablity is that it wouldn't hurt the responsible owners too much, and would remove irresponsible owners from the pool while encouraging lazy but otherwise responsible owners to secure things responsibly.

In my own family, my dad kept all of the guns locked up in a closet that he had the only key to the padlock. One day, my dad was cleaning the hunting rifles, ran down stairs to get some coffee, and my older brother snuck the .22 pistol out of the closet while it was unlocked. My dad didn't notice when he put the guns back. A few days later, I was snooping in my brother's room and found the gun under his matteress. Loaded, chambered, safety off. The gun went off, and the bullet went through the super thin wall of that room and buried itself in the wall of the adjoining room, right above my mom's sewing machine, right where she usually sat when sewing.

We were all VERY very lucky, and my dad grounded my brother for a month (and my mom used the leather belt on him), gave me a lecture on never touching an unfamilliar gun, even if I thought it was a bb gun (which I did at first), grounded me for a weekend for 'not having any common sense' and for going through my brother's room, put a new, heavier padlock on the door and never went to grab coffee leaving ANYTHING out. He also started locking the ammunition up seperately from the guns. Their current house has a very secure gun closet with multiple locks.

Even with careful parents, mistakes and accidents can happen. This was before we'd gone through the gun safety course for hunting as we were still too young, but our dad had taught us how to shoot a bb gun, and we had a little bb-gun range we could set up outside. He kept the bb gun in the gun closet, and would get it out so we could play supervised by him.

The people that bug me are the people who buy it for 'home protection' and keep the gun unlocked, in a drawer, with the ammo right next to it. And they could stand to have a little liabilty heaped on them, imho.

118   e   2007 Apr 16, 6:53am  

This guy seems to know what he was doing. I’d expect him to get a similar body count even without using a gun.

You have got to be sh*ting me.

Looking at some of the daily news from Iraq, it appears that there's a growing knowledge base on how to create incidents sans guns with high body counts there.

119   e   2007 Apr 16, 6:56am  

That’s why jury trials would be needed for a lot of these.

Now, I'm all in favor of jury trials (America rocks!) but based on what all my coworkers who have served on juries have told me, I'm not quite sure I want a jury trial. :(

In Baltimore, there was a famous case where a jury let a pretty obvious murderer go free because they wanted to go home early for the long weekend.

Random fact of the day: eburbed has never been asked to serve on a jury.

120   DinOR   2007 Apr 16, 6:58am  

@eburbed,

I've been called several times but have always managed to get out of it. Mrs. D on the other hand got it over with and now they don't bug her any more.

121   e   2007 Apr 16, 7:02am  

When it comes a time that more and more people start packing heat (e.g., Florida), that will be the day that I get out of dodge, you might have a very nostalgic version of the wild west, but I think more people got shot in the back then what they portrayed in old western movies.

I really do see that being the future of America though.

Eventually, we will vote to eliminate fire/police/emt - those are social services that are a waste of taxpayer dollars. As Thatcher said: there's no society - just individual families.

So, those who want to be safe (and can afford it) will live in gated communities with private patrols (these exist already), and they will be shuttled to private school or malls in armored SUVs on terrible roads. If a fire breaks out, that's fine because the community has a fire crew to handle that - perhaps an urgent care center as well. No need to worry about the "bad" people.

In the end, there's no need for this "public" stuff. Public just means "The People's" and as we all know, that's communism.

But, in the event that you do want to go out into the public for some bizarre reason, you simply get your kevlar on and hop into the armored SUV.

Who can manage your safety better? The evil wasteful corrupt government? Or small businesses and families?

Ironically, in the future, we'll be looking at Mexico City of today for ideas - since most of what I described apparently happens there already today.

122   e   2007 Apr 16, 7:03am  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daegu_subway_fire

This disgruntled person “killed at least 198 people and injured at least 147.” He did not have a gun.

Let’s ban fire!

That's why we need to ban mass transit. It attracts terrorism.

123   cb   2007 Apr 16, 7:05am  

Looking at some of the daily news from Iraq, it appears that there’s a growing knowledge base on how to create incidents sans guns with high body counts there.

What's your point? Hardware stores have policy about spray paints and many drug stores have meds locked up so that people don't buy them in bulk to cook meth. The difference is that there is no second amendment protecting the rights of ownership for these items. If a country collectively believed gun ownership is important (which seems to be the case here in the US), that's fine with me. But just accept the fact that these horrible tragedies will continue to happen.

124   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Apr 16, 7:05am  

I had a lawyer for a roommate, and she said people with technical degrees almost NEVER get on jury trials. Lawyers don't like critical thinking in the jury, it's harder to sway them with "Won't somebody PLEASE think of the children!" arguments.

125   requiem   2007 Apr 16, 7:05am  

eBurbed: have you read Snow Crash?

126   EBGuy   2007 Apr 16, 7:08am  

skibum,

Thank you for trying to focus the group. I am guessing that when the NY Times writes an article that (in a backhanded manner) says you would have been better off renting for the past two years, the JBRs declare victory (and move on to tatoos and guns). Anybody here with the guts to short Wells "high LTV HELOCs" Fargo?

File this under, we will avoid foreclosure at any cost...
One of the newest approaches: the "Mod Squad," a roving 50-person team of problem-solvers who work for EMC Mortgage in Texas, a subsidiary of Wall Street investment bank Bear Stearns. EMC services about 500,000 loans nationwide, with $78 billion in outstanding balances.

Named after a hit TV series from the late 1960s and early '70s, the Mod Squad consists of experts in loan modifications -- custom-crafted solutions for borrowers who no longer can afford their mortgages at current rates and terms. The object is to search for changes in the loan requirements that will permit the borrowers to remain in their houses, pay down their loans and avoid foreclosure.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/04/15/REG4LP8FQ01.DTL

127   HARM   2007 Apr 16, 7:08am  

Back on housing for a sec: California NODs past previous (1996) peak.

128   astrid   2007 Apr 16, 7:10am  

I don't like jury trials. This country should have moved to 3 judge panels years ago.

129   Peter P   2007 Apr 16, 7:10am  

But just accept the fact that these horrible tragedies will continue to happen.

The acceptance is implied. Do you know how many people die of DUI related crashes every day on average in America? I would say more than 31.

http://www.madd.org/stats/11088

130   Peter P   2007 Apr 16, 7:10am  

I don’t like jury trials. This country should have moved to 3 judge panels years ago.

Or trial by combat.

131   e   2007 Apr 16, 7:11am  

What’s your point?

I have really conflicting views on gun control. I used to be really pro gun control - in part because I found the anti-gun control crowd so ridiculous. (See http://patrick.net/wp/?p=438#comment-489402)

But then I realized that at the end of the day, we're such a screwed up bunch of people that it wouldn't matter. And that only 30k people die from gunshots in this country a year. And that 42k+ die in automobile accidents. So it seems to me that if we got rid of cars, that would solve a lot of problems - including drive by shootings. :)

In summary - there was no real logic to entry.

132   e   2007 Apr 16, 7:11am  

Back on housing for a sec: California NODs past previous (1996) peak.

I wonder if there will be a correlation between NODs and shootings in California.

133   Peter P   2007 Apr 16, 7:13am  

I wonder if there will be a correlation between NODs and shootings in California.

No, pirates caused the housing bubble!

134   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Apr 16, 7:15am  

Remember, just because NOD's are past historic peaks is no reason to panic, because foreclosures, while rising, are still historically low.

So buy buy buy!

135   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Apr 16, 7:16am  

We'll see a rise in shootings when the banks try to reposess the HELOC'ed house boats from the pirates.

136   Peter P   2007 Apr 16, 7:21am  

We’ll see a rise in shootings when the banks try to reposess the HELOC’ed house boats from the pirates.

If house boats were repossessed the number of pirates will fall and global warming will continue. We must bailout the pirates!

137   cb   2007 Apr 16, 7:22am  

Named after a hit TV series from the late 1960s and early ’70s, the Mod Squad consists of experts in loan modifications — custom-crafted solutions for borrowers who no longer can afford their mortgages at current rates and terms

The Mod Squad was one of my favorite TV shows, the Mod Squad were actually felons if I remembered correctly, they were given a chance to redeem themselves by doing undercover work.

138   requiem   2007 Apr 16, 7:24am  

Arr, it's a sorry pirate that doesn't know how to bail their own bilge!

139   DinOR   2007 Apr 16, 7:24am  

(NOD's)

Also notice that 2004 was the low point in the cycle coming in right around 50,000. As FB's and future FB's finally get to the "what went wrong?" perspective the good old days just keep getting pushed back further and further. By early '06 the "where's the party phase" it was too early to say "2005 was as good as it gets" as easy money was still front and center in their minds.

In the fullness of time they'll come to realize '05 was very definitely late in the cycle and they "should" have felt queasy when they in fact felt very confident at the time.

140   skibum   2007 Apr 16, 7:25am  

I wonder if there will be a correlation between NODs and shootings in California.

Of course, this falls under the category of baseless correlations and bad statistical analysis, but my personal observation is that indeed, crime tends to escalate when the overall economy is sour, which in turn is correlated with the local housing market.

Currently, the "renaissance" seen in a lot of cities has gone hand-in-hand with the housing boom. NYC, Boston, DC, Philly, SF, LA, all had a decrease in crime (including violent crime) more-or-less during the boom. Now that there's some fraying around the economic edges, some of these cities are beginning to see crime creep back up - I've seen stories in the news about this happening in Oakland, SF, Boston, DC, etc. Interestingly, the city that's probably holding up its RE values is the one exception - NYC. From my understanding, their crime rate remains low.

Correlation? Yes. Causation? Who knows. Then again, maybe pirates are hovering around the shores of these cities as we speak...

141   skibum   2007 Apr 16, 7:29am  

File this under, we will avoid foreclosure at any cost…

EBGuy,

No problem. The gun control issue bores me, honestly.

RE: lenders trying to avoid foreclosure, that's a pretty well-known fact. They will try almost anything to do this, as the foreclosure process is a huge negative for their books, from return on the property, to diminishing their appeal to the secondary mortgage market that may or may not want to purchase mortgage the primary lender is trying to repackage and sell.

Funny how this is happening so soon after WF (last year, I believe) entered whole-hog into the subprime game. I wonder if they still think that was a good idea.

142   PAR   2007 Apr 16, 7:31am  

As part of my ongoing series, entitled "What? You Mean Foreclosures Can Happen in Good Neighborhoods in Silicon Valley?"

I bring you the following listing:
http://www.movoto.com/real-estate/homes-for-sale/CA/Burlingame/1438-Laguna-Ave-100_702235.htm

143   PAR   2007 Apr 16, 7:32am  

Here's the courthouse steps where you can try a bid lower than the $1m they sought...

http://www.recontrustco.com/property_results.asp?county=San%20Mateo

144   PAR   2007 Apr 16, 7:36am  

Here's another one for you. This time in sunny Saratoga:
http://tours.tourfactory.com/tours/tour.asp?t=282715

Only $1.2m for a six bedroom in Saratoga!!!

145   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Apr 16, 7:37am  

Awww... but that's EAST of 101! That's like... the East Palo Alto of Burlingame! BUY! BUY NOW!

146   PAR   2007 Apr 16, 7:37am  

$1.2m too rich for your blood? How does the new prices of $950k sound?

http://sfbay.listpic.com/sby/rfs/282013972.html

147   PAR   2007 Apr 16, 7:38am  

Still no takers at $950k? Don't you know that they are not making any more land in Saratoga?

Ok, last chance. Let's meet on the courthouse steps on 4/30.

http://www.recontrustco.com/property_results.asp?county=Santa%20Clara

148   astrid   2007 Apr 16, 7:40am  

I certainly would prefer to live in a secured building in the next few years.

Perhaps I should be even more paranoid, I do work on K St.

149   PAR   2007 Apr 16, 7:47am  

Cupertino, anyone?
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=19632320

Another one seemingly headed for the auction block... (But don't they have good schools? How can this happen?)

150   skibum   2007 Apr 16, 7:48am  

PAR,

RE: the Saratoga listing - I wonder if the "straw that broke the camel's back" for that FB was the hottub in the back they likely bought at Costco, probably during one of their serial refi's.

RE: the Burlingame property - SFBB is right. It's nasty there. Plus, the house is in pretty awful shape. I wonder if it was a flipper who got caught upside down in a changing (read falling) market?

Either way, both these properties show me how screwed up things are. Someone paid over $1M for each of these POS's, and they couldn't hack it. In what universe is either of those properties worth over $1m???

151   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Apr 16, 7:49am  

PAR, my wife and I actually went to look at the saratoga place. The guy handling the listing literally would not let people in to see it if they had a realtor. I have no idea what was going on there, but it was shady to say the least.

Also, Quinto is the end of the Lawrence Expressway. My wife and I nicknamed the street "Baby Killa Avenue" because of the heavy traffic.

152   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Apr 16, 7:51am  

That cupertino one is weird, as the 2006 taxes were 1,600 bucks, saying it's been Prop 13'd for a good long while. Is that a HELOC casualty? I think it must be!

153   PAR   2007 Apr 16, 7:52am  

Speaking of Cupertino.... Becky Lee just got a commission from a December sale in Cupertino. A nice 3/2 on 19121 Barnhart Ave. Way to go, Becky!
http://www.beckyleehomes.com/page.asp?num=8505

I hope their kids enjoy the great schooling...

154   e   2007 Apr 16, 7:52am  

None of those http://www.recontrustco.com/ links seem to work

155   PAR   2007 Apr 16, 7:53am  

Uh-oh. NOD filed in March. Back to the courthouse steps for this one.

http://www.recontrustco.com/property_results.asp?county=Santa%20Clara

156   PAR   2007 Apr 16, 7:56am  

Don't like the previous 6-bedroom that I listed? Then how about this $2.3m beauty?
http://www.trulia.com/property/11463320-15545-Quickert-Rd-Saratoga-CA-95070

(Bidding starts at 11:00am sharp on 5/9. Don't be late.)

« First        Comments 117 - 156 of 399       Last »     Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions