patrick.net

I don’t like jury trials. This country should have moved to 3 judge panels years ago.

Or trial by combat.

What’s your point?

I have really conflicting views on gun control. I used to be really pro gun control - in part because I found the anti-gun control crowd so ridiculous. (See http://patrick.net/wp/?p=438#comment-489402)

But then I realized that at the end of the day, we're such a screwed up bunch of people that it wouldn't matter. And that only 30k people die from gunshots in this country a year. And that 42k+ die in automobile accidents. So it seems to me that if we got rid of cars, that would solve a lot of problems - including drive by shootings. :)

In summary - there was no real logic to entry.

Back on housing for a sec: California NODs past previous (1996) peak.

I wonder if there will be a correlation between NODs and shootings in California.

I wonder if there will be a correlation between NODs and shootings in California.

No, pirates caused the housing bubble!

Remember, just because NOD's are past historic peaks is no reason to panic, because foreclosures, while rising, are still historically low.

So buy buy buy!

We'll see a rise in shootings when the banks try to reposess the HELOC'ed house boats from the pirates.

We’ll see a rise in shootings when the banks try to reposess the HELOC’ed house boats from the pirates.

If house boats were repossessed the number of pirates will fall and global warming will continue. We must bailout the pirates!

Named after a hit TV series from the late 1960s and early ’70s, the Mod Squad consists of experts in loan modifications — custom-crafted solutions for borrowers who no longer can afford their mortgages at current rates and terms

The Mod Squad was one of my favorite TV shows, the Mod Squad were actually felons if I remembered correctly, they were given a chance to redeem themselves by doing undercover work.

Arr, it's a sorry pirate that doesn't know how to bail their own bilge!

(NOD's)

Also notice that 2004 was the low point in the cycle coming in right around 50,000. As FB's and future FB's finally get to the "what went wrong?" perspective the good old days just keep getting pushed back further and further. By early '06 the "where's the party phase" it was too early to say "2005 was as good as it gets" as easy money was still front and center in their minds.

In the fullness of time they'll come to realize '05 was very definitely late in the cycle and they "should" have felt queasy when they in fact felt very confident at the time.

I wonder if there will be a correlation between NODs and shootings in California.

Of course, this falls under the category of baseless correlations and bad statistical analysis, but my personal observation is that indeed, crime tends to escalate when the overall economy is sour, which in turn is correlated with the local housing market.

Currently, the "renaissance" seen in a lot of cities has gone hand-in-hand with the housing boom. NYC, Boston, DC, Philly, SF, LA, all had a decrease in crime (including violent crime) more-or-less during the boom. Now that there's some fraying around the economic edges, some of these cities are beginning to see crime creep back up - I've seen stories in the news about this happening in Oakland, SF, Boston, DC, etc. Interestingly, the city that's probably holding up its RE values is the one exception - NYC. From my understanding, their crime rate remains low.

Correlation? Yes. Causation? Who knows. Then again, maybe pirates are hovering around the shores of these cities as we speak...

File this under, we will avoid foreclosure at any cost…

EBGuy,

No problem. The gun control issue bores me, honestly.

RE: lenders trying to avoid foreclosure, that's a pretty well-known fact. They will try almost anything to do this, as the foreclosure process is a huge negative for their books, from return on the property, to diminishing their appeal to the secondary mortgage market that may or may not want to purchase mortgage the primary lender is trying to repackage and sell.

Funny how this is happening so soon after WF (last year, I believe) entered whole-hog into the subprime game. I wonder if they still think that was a good idea.

As part of my ongoing series, entitled "What? You Mean Foreclosures Can Happen in Good Neighborhoods in Silicon Valley?"

I bring you the following listing:
http://www.movoto.com/real-estate/homes-for-sale/CA/Burlingame/1438-Laguna-Ave-100_702235.htm

Here's the courthouse steps where you can try a bid lower than the $1m they sought...

http://www.recontrustco.com/property_results.asp?county=San%20Mateo

Here's another one for you. This time in sunny Saratoga:
http://tours.tourfactory.com/tours/tour.asp?t=282715

Only $1.2m for a six bedroom in Saratoga!!!

Awww... but that's EAST of 101! That's like... the East Palo Alto of Burlingame! BUY! BUY NOW!

$1.2m too rich for your blood? How does the new prices of $950k sound?

http://sfbay.listpic.com/sby/rfs/282013972.html

Still no takers at $950k? Don't you know that they are not making any more land in Saratoga?

Ok, last chance. Let's meet on the courthouse steps on 4/30.

http://www.recontrustco.com/property_results.asp?county=Santa%20Clara

I certainly would prefer to live in a secured building in the next few years.

Perhaps I should be even more paranoid, I do work on K St.

Cupertino, anyone?
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=19632320

Another one seemingly headed for the auction block... (But don't they have good schools? How can this happen?)

PAR,

RE: the Saratoga listing - I wonder if the "straw that broke the camel's back" for that FB was the hottub in the back they likely bought at Costco, probably during one of their serial refi's.

RE: the Burlingame property - SFBB is right. It's nasty there. Plus, the house is in pretty awful shape. I wonder if it was a flipper who got caught upside down in a changing (read falling) market?

Either way, both these properties show me how screwed up things are. Someone paid over $1M for each of these POS's, and they couldn't hack it. In what universe is either of those properties worth over $1m???

PAR, my wife and I actually went to look at the saratoga place. The guy handling the listing literally would not let people in to see it if they had a realtor. I have no idea what was going on there, but it was shady to say the least.

Also, Quinto is the end of the Lawrence Expressway. My wife and I nicknamed the street "Baby Killa Avenue" because of the heavy traffic.

That cupertino one is weird, as the 2006 taxes were 1,600 bucks, saying it's been Prop 13'd for a good long while. Is that a HELOC casualty? I think it must be!

Speaking of Cupertino.... Becky Lee just got a commission from a December sale in Cupertino. A nice 3/2 on 19121 Barnhart Ave. Way to go, Becky!
http://www.beckyleehomes.com/page.asp?num=8505

I hope their kids enjoy the great schooling...

None of those http://www.recontrustco.com/ links seem to work

Uh-oh. NOD filed in March. Back to the courthouse steps for this one.

http://www.recontrustco.com/property_results.asp?county=Santa%20Clara

Don't like the previous 6-bedroom that I listed? Then how about this $2.3m beauty?
http://www.trulia.com/property/11463320-15545-Quickert-Rd-Saratoga-CA-95070

(Bidding starts at 11:00am sharp on 5/9. Don't be late.)

I guess those links are cached. Try going to the main site, click on CA properties and scroll down to the county you want...

FWIW, if you want to go back to gun control debating, you should post them at this link:

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2007/04/16/more-to-come/

"FBI Warns of Copycat Attacks"

http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/SanJose-Sunnyvale-SantaClara/

Just refreshed

Date Inventory
(SFH + Condo) 25th Percentile 50th Percentile
(Median) 75th Percentile
04/16/2007 5,414 $577,500 $689,900 $915,000
04/09/2007 5,161 $579,000 $689,950 $915,000
04/02/2007 5,219 $579,000 $690,000 $924,000
03/26/2007 4,985 $584,750 $695,000 $928,888

Frickin Fortress South Bay

Here's a funny one from the archives. "doodler" posts on patrick.net in April 2006:

doodler Says:
April 3rd, 2006 at 8:11 pm

My good friend is the listing agent for a PRIME active listing Los Altos property: 1722 Selig Lane, Los Altos. This home has been on the market for weeks with NO BITES. Oh yes that spring surge is definitely upon us.

Well, if you missed your chance back in '06, here's your second opportunity. Just meet here with cash in hand:

AT THE NORTH MARKET STREET ENTRANCE TO THE COUNTY COURTHOUSE, 190 NORTH MARKET STREET, SAN JOSE, CA 5/11/2007 11:00:00 AM

From “FBI Warns of Copycat Attacks”

Today’s events are perfect argument for gun ownership. A conceal carry owner could’ve taken this nut job down!

Comment by Hugh Higgins

I totally agree. Banning guns will only make the innocent more vulnerable.

Frickin Fortress South Bay

Inventory rising. Prices falling. What else do you want?

This just in . . .

There is a glimmer of a hope that we might be able to escape South Marin. My wife and I are talking about looking at Menlo again. I hope I'm not going to wake up from this one. Now if only I could get the hell out of here before they make Hwy 1 one way through Tam Valley.

Inventory is rising fast (faster than last year at this time). My Santa Clara County YOY stats:

4/03/2006 - 3809
4/17/2006 - 3879

A difference of 70 listings.

4/02/07 - 4531
4/16/07 - 4983

A difference of 452 listings.

Skibum,

How about the big jump in Milwaukee crime-

http://tinyurl.com/2dgkxp

PAR,

the 6-bedroom is a disaster waiting to happen. I grew up in a place full of landslides every summer, so I am ultra-sensitive to landslide-prone terrain. This house was built recently with little consideration to the steep slopes at the back and I see no fortification. The occupants of this house are paying $2.3M to bear the risk of being buried alive in the next earthquake, or rain-induced landslide.

lunarpark and eburbed,

Not only is there a big jump in inventory and a drop in median asking price from last week, but the ablsolut total number of listings remains significantly higher than last year at this time.

Paul,

I'm not familiar with Milwaulkee's local economy and housing market, but I'd take a guess that it's part of the Midwest economic downturn. In that case, it wouldn't surprise me that the crime stats are so bad there, even in 2006.

Peter P Says:
From “FBI Warns of Copycat Attacks”
Today’s events are perfect argument for gun ownership. A conceal carry owner could’ve taken this nut job down!
Comment by Hugh Higgins

I totally agree. Banning guns will only make the innocent more vulnerable.

This just gets nuttier and nuttier. Some of the comments on that blog are the most insane and parochial I've read anywhere on anything. Most other 'civilised' countries where guns are effectively banned don't have any problems with school massacres. When was the last time you heard about a school or college massacre in the UK? (Apart from a single one some years back that triggered even stricter gun control laws. And I would argue that was a 'copycat' of events reported from America.) Security forces, private or public, are the only people who should be allowed to carry guns, and even that is a little scary.

When guns are outlawed, they are increasingly taken out of the hands of criminals as well -- given that every time they are apprehended, they are removed from circulation. There will always be some illegal ownership, but overall there is a net reduction. Crimes involving guns (holdups, etc) have dropped 60% in Australia over the last few years, for instance. And no, they don't substitute baseball bats to intimidate 7/11 owners...

The other thing is, someone wrote (as certain Americans always do) that the Bill of Rights need no further amendments, and still does the job perfectly, even in a modern, industrialised society. I find it amazing that a document written 2 centuries ago under completely different conditions in a frontier society should be so perfect today -- in a time where attempted assassinations of a king would be met with being hung, drawn and quartered in public view, for instance, and you could be hung for stealing an item of clothing.