patrick.net

Same with California. The CA Association of Realtors is boasting that housing inventory has dropped to 4.2 months. Well....that number does not include the tens of thousands of bank-owned properties sitting vacant and off the market now for months.

I think a larger question for AZ if water-related. Even Southern California for that matter. Water is one thing you can't fake.

Arizona (Phoenix area) and Vegas are both totally fucked. Lack of water surely must be a factor, lack of jobs... all that. The housing bust begat the construction bust which made many, many jobs go away. This is horrendous - a good friend of mine is in the center of this. Lost their business, their income, their homes, etc when they were millionaires a year before that. They worked hard and lived well, but weren't the poster children of excess.

So many people losing their lifestyles and the futures they thought they had. It sucks & blows at the same time.

They're too busy trying to survive to learn anything. The learning will come later. They went from having a large, beautiful home and a business with 20 employees and several new cars and vacations and college for the kiddies and what they thought was financial security to near homelessness (living with a relative), an old used car and foodstamps. It's not that they didn't plan & save - their business was construction-related and it went away. Their savings lasted them a year - that translates into about $250k including covering payroll, etc.

One of the things that killed their business wasn't that they didn't have ongoing customers - it's that people stopped paying their bills. According to their contracts, they had a 30-day out clause. So, they had to continue providing service to customers that weren't paying while they terminated their contracts. It was nuts.

It's amazing what can happen to someone in one short year - everything disappeared literally overnight.

Tsk tsk tsk.
He didn't burn his nest egg on vacations and cars. In the future, please read carefully before attacking people and later complaining they're not nice to you.

They bought several new cars, paid cash, over the years. They drove these cars for business, and put many miles on them. It made no sense to buy used cars and continue to repair them, creating the need for rentals to replace the cars while they're being fixed. These cars were sold when the business tanked and were replaced with an old pos that works okay.

They took vacations, as do many people. Some people take short vacations, some people have summer or lake houses, some people go on cruises and some people buy islands. There are different types of vacations - and as long as it doesn't affect anyone else, it's no one's business where they go or how they get there. Working hard, people deserve a break. If you have taken any vacation, you have no room to talk. If you haven't ever taken a vacation, you should. It does wonders for the attitude.

They had a huge Accounts Receivable and a large cash reserve. They put a large amount down on their home and lived their life on their own terms. His construction-related business was 25 years old and continued to do well despite economic busts & booms. As business grew exponentially they chose to keep costs down and worked themselves hard. Their business would have survived had their customers paid their bills, but several companies chose not to do so and others weren't able to. It's simply not possible to plan for the day that your business dries up completely when it happens overnight.

Are you saying that everyone who has lost their homes, their jobs & their businesses are at fault from their own misdoings? That those who lost their asses with Madoff, WorldCom, Enron, the dotcom bust, and the current recession are all at fault because they should have anticipated and planned accordingly? You lack compassion and know not whereof you speak.

I'll have them send you a thank you letter for your welfare contributions - but it'll be c.o.d.

You can read whatever you would like into my friend's situation, but you are wrong. Many people have been affected by the economy and those who assert they have all the answers are the problem. Until your charmed life has been affected by a life-altering change, you'll never understand.

I have this problem - I believe that people are basically good and that everyone deserves a chance. But you don't and I'm going to make a concerted effort not to answer you. There's no way currently to block your posts, but you aren't worth my time or energy. I hope that didn't hurt your feelings.

Bap33 says

you guys both need to give it a rest. You are missing a chance at a great discussion here.
OTS, there is such-a-thing as bad luck/bad timing. It happens.
Ellie, Frank Smith the buggy whip maker was F-ed bad too.

There is very little opportunity for a "great discussion" with OTS. I've already said I won't respond to him - he contributes nothing positive and isn't worth my time. And who the hell is Frank Smith the buggy maker? Why wouldn't I be compassionate about him?

knewbetter says

I think a larger question for AZ if water-related. Even Southern California for that matter. Water is one thing you can’t fake.

The water issue isn't as big of a deal as some people make it out to be. It's a significant financial drain, but it's actually offset by the overall lower energy bills (even despite the high AC usage).

California's water problems will only rise to the point where desalinization is cheaper. Currently, that means a little more than doubling of the price that is paid today.

AZ (and really, just Phoenix...the rest of the state is mostly empty) biggest problem is the utter lack of industry. A ton of people moved there because of the housing boom, but there really isn't anything to keep you there.

They do have solar, and lots of it. If they can keep dropping the price of those panels then maybe, but I can't get over the fact that there is no water, salt or otherwise.

I've got a friend in Phoenix who lost everything too. She's trying to slug it out but going from 120k/yr to 30k/yr is quite an adjustment for a girl in her late 30's.

I remember reading that 4000 people per month were coming to Vegas (in droves); recently I read that 4000 people per month are leaving Vegas. They didn't plan for the huge growth, and they haven't planned for the mass exodus.

I'm very sorry for your friend's plight, knewb. That would be a huge adjustment for anyone.

"There are many areas of AZ/NV where the cost of living is DIRT CHEAP. As in, SFH rents well under $1000. (Rural, not ghetto.) Had this person not blown through his family’s reserves so quickly, they would not be homeless and on welfare right now."
Well, I don't know about that one. In my experience with AZ, the areas that are cheap for real estate/housing are also very hot in the summer, actually more like 9 mos out of the year, plan on running the AC 24/7. In many places in southern AZ, the climate has become more humid and so swamp coolers just do not work anymore in providing a lower indoor temp. Earlier this January, it was 91 in Tucson all the way out to Willcox. So, cheap places can be very expensive energy-wise. Like Yuma, so incredibly hot.
The cooler it is, the more expensive it gets in AZ, like Show Low, Sedona, Prescott, Flaggstaff. Although last I was in NV was in late 2008, I suspect the same there as AZ: cheap would be any desert area in the southern part of the State. More Expensive would be Reno and Minden, although Reno's having a RE meltdown of its own.
In the West, access to drinkable water and a mild climate = $$$

Vegas RE is dropping to the point that a condo costs less than $90k. Homes in the $100 range. It's amazing, they've dropped over 50% in the past year & 1/2. But the problem is that there are few jobs and little job security. It's a scary economy right now.

I don't appreciate that some people who sit by the wayside know all the answers to everything, compare their charmed lives to others and spout useless crap to anyone who'll listen. This economic crash is unprecedented in our lifetime and we're all at risk. If people bought homes they couldn't afford, tapped into their equity, and are whining because their payments are adjusting upward while their equity vanishes, I couldn't have less compassion for them. Especially if they can afford their payment but just don't want to. But hard working people whose lives are irrevocably changed because of the debacle - my heart goes out to them.

And yes, I do mean those people who invested in property in the hopes of riding the bubble to prosperity. Their credit, sometimes their savings, etc are vanishing when all they tried to do was make a buck.

Regarding your friends elliemae. Any business that is construction related is always at a fairly high risk for failure this is from personal experience, I was involved for over 25 years. One can make tremendous amounts of money and lose tremendous amounts of money. Your friends have now experienced both sides of the equation. They do have my sympathy but this is the nature of business not everyone can have success long term. Bubbles burst and they take down many construction companies. Overhead and debt are the main killers. There always has been a construction cycle unfortunately a lot of younger people particularly in the bubble areas never have experienced this cycle, until now. Most contractors and it doesn't really sound like your friends were contractors at least not GCs have a brush with bankruptcy, if they survive they are usually in it for the long haul. A lot of contractors are trades people who move to start their own companies and a lot of failures are due to this as the now business owners don't understand the business side only the trade side of their companies.

rdm says

Regarding your friends elliemae. Any business that is construction related is always at a fairly high risk for failure this is from personal experience, I was involved for over 25 years. One can make tremendous amounts of money and lose tremendous amounts of money. Your friends have now experienced both sides of the equation. They do have my sympathy but this is the nature of business not everyone can have success long term. Bubbles burst and they take down many construction companies. Overhead and debt are the main killers. There always has been a construction cycle unfortunately a lot of younger people particularly in the bubble areas never have experienced this cycle, until now. Most contractors and it doesn’t really sound like your friends were contractors at least not GCs have a brush with bankruptcy, if they survive they are usually in it for the long haul. A lot of contractors are trades people who move to start their own companies and a lot of failures are due to this as the now business owners don’t understand the business side only the trade side of their companies.

The business was commercial but became more focused on construction. It does suck that they're hurting, and they probably wouldn't be hurting as much elsewhere. But vegas tanked. big time.

I am grateful every day that I have a job & a place to live.

Bankster:
I have never read "Californians ceremoniously rag on AZ" ever. Not sure where you're reading this stuff, maybe on a site that I don't visit, so maybe you could provide a link.
That said, having lived in 2 States simultaneously (CA & NM) and having gone to AZ every 1.5 mos for 3 years, I'm somewhat confused having never seen any solar farms there - where are they? There is a nuclear facility off the 10 fwy outside PHX - that I know. But solar farms bringing AC costs down to zero in the summer? No. Friends in AZ tell me its about $250/mo for electrical bills in the summer or when the AC has to be run 24/7. This unfortunately will increase under Cap and Trade legislation because energy sources will be more costly.
As far as the heat is concerned, it was 91 in January of this year in Tucson and last I was in PHX (last month) it was 103. A friend there told me (2 days ago) that it was 106. Usually in the summer, Tucson gets to anywhere from 109 to 115. PHX is usually a couple of degrees warmer than that in the summer (I used to live there off Indian School).
For the past 7 or so years, Tucson has been in a drought, although rains in 2008 aleviated that situation somewhat. And the PHX area received good rains in 2007. And AZ still gets CO River water.
Certainly the cost of housing is lower in AZ and that cost is continuing to come down due to deflation of the housing bubble. No disputing that. And you can buy a bigger nicer house in AZ than a comparable in CA, generally although there are exceptions.
However, having lived for 3 years in southern NM, I can tell you that although the houses are bigger and have very nice architectural features, people tend to spend a lot of time indoors because the weather is one thing or another. Either its too hot or too windy or too cold and the nice weather lasts for a few days or a week or two before changing to hot/cold/monsoon/humid/dry/dusty.
The further you get from the ocean the more extreme the weather will get the further inland you go. Just the way it is. Not a criticism, but that's life.
Usually the people whom I've met who have moved from one State or another to AZ do so for political reasons or for lower taxes. They put up with the weather in exchange for other benefits to living in that locale. To each their own.

OK, glad you made your point clearer here - a person would have to install solar panels in order to get energy costs down to a very low amt. I can't determine if your assertion is true or not simply because I don't know of anyone in AZ who has nearly gone off grid. Anyway, energy costs are high in PHX/southern AZ during the hot months and these energy costs will increase if cap and trade legislation goes through.

Not sure PHX is all that you claim with the increase in kidnappings that illegals are involved in - PHX is Number 2 in the world for kidnappings after Mexico City....

Actually its not pseudo adobe pic - its a real Santa Fe home.

:/

Crime is often localized in certain areas. There's crime in many places, and it's all relative. I live in a small town and people talk about the "bad areas" - a joke considering our "bad areas" are safer than many other town's "good areas."

Maybe this will help shed light on the kidnapping scare:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22614102/

The abductions are occurring in the Phoenix area at the rate of practically one per day, and police suspect they have led to killings in which bound and bullet-riddled bodies have been found dumped in the desert.

The kidnap victims are typically drug or immigrant-smugglers, who are seen as inviting targets because they have a lot of money, they can raise large sums of cash on short notice, and they are unlikely to go to the police, for fear their own shady dealings will come to light.

We have never had a victim that we have investigated that has been as clean as the new driven snow," said Sgt. Phil Roberts, who investigates the kidnappings. "There has always been some type of criminal element to it. Either they are criminals, drug dealers or human smugglers — or a close family member is."

The kidnappers themselves are fellow traffickers who are doing it for the money or to punish their rivals.

I don't know where they get their info from.

TOB, My dad lives south of Tucson in a retirement community, and he has emphatically stated that when they kick over, sell the house as AZ is definitely headed for water issues with the influx of people.

He's a Ph.D in Hydrogeology with 30+ years experience with the BLM.

t/y elliemae for that link/post.
Confirms my suspicions, however local PC news sorta keeps this stuff out of common knowledge although message board posters on eastvalleytribune.com and azcentral.com will give their .02 cents.
Yes, TOB, nearly everyone in Cali loves Sheriff Joe.
Although I disagree with your AC views - having lived in PHX when even the locals thought it was hot (117 and 119 stretches in July cooling down to 95-97 degrees at night) - in my view, AC is a necessity although locals will recall the days prior to the Salt River Project in PHX when a swamp cooler was all that was needed.

TOB: I think the situation stems from folks who have indoor pets or parents with babies (babies and elderly have impaired abilities for their bodies to cool or warm up) - hence the 24/7 thing.
And in cold climates, having the heat on all the time.
Thanks for your post.

TOB, I don't care if you believe me or not because of it being teh internets. I was just letting you know that the person I trust to actually know which reports are crap and which aren't thinks that the population in AZ and in surrounding areas are getting fairly close to critical. I did so because you had said you'd never heard of a hydrologist corroborating the claims. My dad's retired (yes, in green valley, which isn't very green) hydrogeologist who thinks water will be an issue. He hasn't published anything about it, so I can't link you to an article of his, but he's got the experience with groundwater and keeps up with the current research. Take whatever sized pinch of salt you want with it. I know developers will pay for reports that say water isn't an issue, and I know the Sierra club will pay for reports that say it is.

And I'm not saying AZ is a terrible place to live or anything like that. I'm saying that water will have an impact going forward. I personally enjoy going to visit my folks and going for walks in the desert and drinking in the scenery. I personally don't think any place is 'best'. I've lived in Montana, California, Washington, Wisconsin, and Arizona, and I liked living in every place for different reasons and got annoyed at different things in each place. And almost universally what I don't like in every place is over-development, specifically badly planned development. That shows up everywhere.

Hey TOB, in your time off, you didn't happen to become a Relitter specializing in foreclosures in the beautiful Southwest ;-)

Go do your own research. ;)

No need to be a douchebag. Unless, of course, you are one. In which case, carry on!

As I said, carry on.

I have no dog in this fight, but I will throw this out there.

I do know that the water table in Tuscon has been dropping for years and I also know that you can't drink sand. I have not tried to drink sand and can't provide proof that you can't drink sand, but you are welcome to try it.

I live and work in NW Ohio just a few hundred feet from Lake Erie. Ohh and by the way, You can't have my water! I also work at a nuke plant and have read up on other facilities. Palo Verde in Arizona uses shit water for cooling water. It is a pretty good idea. Use the clean water to drink and then use the treated crap water to cool a power plant.

http://www.tucsonaz.gov/water/docs/groundwater.pdf

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palo_Verde_Nuclear_Generating_Station

I hate using Wiki as a source, but it looks pretty accurate.

"Instead, it uses treated sewage from several nearby municipalities to meet its cooling water needs, recycling 20 billion US gallons (76,000,000 m³) of wastewater each year. At the nuclear plant site, the wastewater is further treated and stored in an 80 acre (324,000 m²) reservoir for use in the plant's cooling towers"

It is in the desciption part of the page.

There's a beautiful book, Cadillac Desert, that I highly recommend.
http://www.enotes.com/cadillac-desert

Sure, there's supposedly a huge aquifer under much of the U.S. But we are incredibly egotistical in our approach to water utilization. In the desert, there is a scarcity of water yet we pump it out of the ground for our use. This leads to ground subsidence in many areas.
http://www.azwater.gov/DWR/Content/Find_by_Program/Hydrology/land-subsidence-in-arizona.htm

Another thing to take into consideration is the heat island effect http://eetd.lbl.gov/EA/Reports/41973/41973-3C.html
which further raises temperatures and humidity, making it necessary to pump more water from the aquifers and utilize the water from rivers and mountain ranges.

Unfortunately, we are (or were, during the bubble) magnifying both issues by endless building and changing deserts into housing developments. We can't live without water - and the more people who live in areas without water, the greater the chance that eventually we'll run out. Nope, I don't have a Ph.D. in Hydrogeology. But my ex did, and he taught me a little.

In the peak oil world that I think we are moving towards, water will become very expensive to move over a large distances. Lots of electricity is used just to move water. We will all have issues based on where we live. I did not post anything about Phoenix and water shortages. I just made the posting about Tucson and its water table. The only thing I said about Phoenix was the treated sewage going to cool a power plant.

I look at it this way. Land can only support a certain amount of people based on the use of its natural resources. You can stress anything to the point that things go bad.

Different areas have different challenges. I was born and raised in Texas and they also have water problems. Dallas has really pissed off some of the areas around it because they were expecting to have access to their water. I now live in an area where water is not a problem, but I need more energy to keep my living area habitable. It actually takes less energy to cool a home in the south than heating a home in the dead of winter in the north. It is all about the temperature difference. Cooling air 20 degrees is not as bad as heating air by 70 degrees. I have traded one problem for another, but I am ok with it because I am in the process of building an ICF home.

I do know my dad living in Dallas went through some water rationing last summer due to a drought. Some years are better than others.

TOB, what the hell?! sfbubblebuyer didn't seem nearly as argumentative as you seem to think he did. I read here often and very rarely (aka never) comment, but Christ, you really have some issues.
What I got was this.
TOB says he hasn't seen hydrologists saying X.
SFBB says his dad is a retired hydrogeologist and actually DOES think X.
TOB says, "articles or GTFO."
SFBB says, again, it's his dad, not the internet, but you could do research if you wanted.
TOB freaks the fuck out.
Fun times here on patrick.net.

TOB, just thought about this. Having water may not be the problem. Having clean water is the problem for many people. Lake Erie used to be polluted. The dumbasses up here in Ohio once were able to set the Cuyahoga River on fire on several occasions. This major river flows into Lake Erie. Would you want to drink that shit after it caught fire? Salt water is no different. I do believe that water desalination powered by nuke power is the answer for most of us, but the country has no forward thinking. It is a shame really that most of us can't think past next week.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuyahoga_River

Aliee, I have to agree with TOB on his last post. A simple google search that took me 5 seconds got me info about the water table. It would not have been hard for SFBB to get this info. It is silly how reading a stupid thing at a Tucson museum a few years back stuck with me. That is how I knew they had a problem in Tuscon. I am not sure about the rest of AZ.

There's also the humidity in Phoenix, which is caused by the heat island effect and the water used outside. We're burning thru alot of water there.

We really shouldn't be watering our lawns. If you don't eat it you shouldn't be watering it.

As far as the "pure water" idea most people before safe municipal water did get the runs and die from a fresh water stream, at least near a city or agricultural run off. That's why you either had milk, tea (boiled water), a well, or beer. Even after 100 years we've still got some of the best municipal water in the world.

If anybody needs water, it has just started raining for the 23 day in a row.

"one more day of rain and Sting is going to throw us a benefit concert!"

I live in AZ and have bad news about the water: There is enough here for many tens of millions more to move here.

About 95% of the water goes to farming, golf etc. Simple economics the people who own water rights can sell them for much, much more to home-owners than to farmers. History in "the valley" is farmers sell out for big bucks to homeowners, and believe it or not homeowners use less wafer than farms they replaced.

I say "bad news" because it will get more crowded here.

Another plus is that house prices are returning near sane levels, though they still need to fall more. Affordable housing was always a plus here.

Biggest problem I see here is "cap and trade". Carbon limits will make electric bills go way up, and solar is much more expensive. I would think resale of 5000 sqft "mcmansions" could decrease even more.

Andrew
***

Not sure about a renaissance any time soon, I was in Scottsdale at the Fashion Park recently and even though there are all these really cute cafes nearby with misters gently spraying the cafe area with mist, there were no customers on the sidewalks or at the cafes not even at Sprinkles.
Went into Nordstroms and I was one of just a few (10 or so) customers on the first floor.
imo, the real estate downturn has really shaken out the bad fruit - i.e.: those that were living above their means by heloc money and refi'ed money. Now that they're gone, shopping is a breeze and I do not have problems getting anything in my size anymore.
AZ was hit hard by speculators, no doubt about that.
However, one big thing that is the bright spot and that is the employer sanctions against hiring illegals has been kicking in for about one year now and many illegals have left (Tucson, for sure). You can drive around AZ (both PHX and Tucson) and the numbers of Mexican Nationals have definitely gone down. Especially after Sheriff Joe came out and stated he has a posse of 7k+ persons to back him up. That was huge.
So the costs of dealing with Mexicans will go down, particularly in the medical care and education arenas which are also the most expensive.
Now Carlos Slim, the world's richest man and the richest person in Mexico, worth $59 Billion can extend a hand to his own countrypersons - no doubt one of the reasons why he's so rich is that he is part of the narrative in Mexico of ridding that country of its poor onto US.

Are you? Wow!!! Check out Phoenix City Grill - great menu esp the Pot Roast and the Bread Pudding made w/croissants!!! And Tutti Santi!! Have you been there lately? Awesome ravioli!

We agree about Scottsdale - a whole lot of $30k millionaires that are broke/foreclosed/bankrupt.

OK I will check out the Fair Trade Cafe next time I'm in PHX which should be in September. :)

We Californians can learn a big lesson from AZ: if you don't have the money the programs will have to go and that's it, it's really very simple. Ex: today I called the AZ MVD for paperwork to be sent and the number was disconnected - no problem - I just called the main number and a Level One Rep sent off the documents I need.

I don't know why the CA legislature needs to moan and groan over this budget crisis - its quite simple when you get past the lobbyists and special interests: just axe things! AZ has done this and its not any sort of 3rd World Country. I mean, certain Cali residents act like if programs are eliminated then Oh My God, the traffic signals will no longer work (!) and the lines down the center of the road will disappear (!)...good grief, AZ started cutting out programs and commissions 2 years ago and they will come out of this sooner people!

Yes, many people do not understand what is going on in the Cali legislature is the result of 2nd and 3rd generation anchor babies growing up and getting into elected office and who vote to continue State benefits to illegals/Mexican Nationals.

This sort of conduct is supported by the courts, particularly in Family Courts all over the State involving CPS and custody battles between illegals/green card holders. Many times the couple involved are not even married or got married in Mexico and had the child(ren) here and are going at each other with Fee Waivers so that Cali taxpayers are paying for this sort of thing.

Another thing we are paying for are the endless civil cases brought against illegals/green carders by Credit Bureaus. Construction Defect suits are another with many citizens having to sue for defective, shoddy (*Surprise* You get what you pay for!) contractor work by these people.

Did you know that illegals are able to collect Worker's Comp if they are injured on the job??? Yep and they do collect and go back to Mexico with their winnings!

The taxpayers of California are really getting screwed over royal. If there wern't all these problems associated with illegals/incarceration/education/labor&delivery/well-baby care/entire square miles of residential real estate in LA uninhabitable due to criminal gangs/CPS/roadside litter/trash/traffic accidents/insurance rates then WE COULD AFFORD STATE PROVIDED HEALTH CARE FOR CALIFORNIANS WHO ARE CITIZENS!

Please note the "trial" in my username - that's how I know.