patrick.net

A newspaper (not sure which one) reported that in Cali, the Border Patrol was ID'ing Mexicans who were returning to Mexico (TJ).

What I witnessed on the 10 freeway in southern AZ and southern NM where I lived less than 2 miles from the 10, were cars and trucks with CA license plates headed east on the 10 to Texas. Probably going to Austin or San Antonio. By trucks I mean Ryder or U Haul moving trucks.

Takes money to move, wealthy have the resources to move out when they want whereas the poor will wait until all bets are off and they cannot pay the rent or get evicted. Where are wealthy Californians going? My experience is that they are going to Colorado. Others are returning to their native State wherever that may be. Some have moved to Arizona, such as Glendale/PHX/Paradise Valley/Apache Junction/Sedona/Oro Valley in Tucson; others have gone to Las Vegas.

Here in the Silicon Valley at the Home Depot on DeAnza, the numbers of day laborers out front near the sidewalk has really gone down - from about 25 last month to about 3 recently about 2 weeks ago. So, the poor can only hold on for so long, but the wealthy can up and go with a lot more flexibility.

Wanted to add that the wealthy, depending on their net worth, often own multiple homes/residences usually in 2 or more States. So, depending on their tax position, they may already be legally domiciled in another State. For example, I lived in 2 States, splitting my time between the two, but a legal resident of California. I can afford Cali taxes and my identity is very strong as a Californian.

When it comes to the wealthy, this think tank just can't paint the situation with a broad brush. Sorry to say, but sitting at a desk all day running internet searches and analyzing data is not the same as living it.

Wealthy californians aren't going anywhere. The cost of living isn't relevant for them -- they have mutli-million dollar homes and send their kids to private schools anyway.

The middle class, on the other hand, might be moving. My wife and I are debating moving to washington right now. I'll get paid the same, but with no state income taxes and a substantially lower cost of living overall we should be a lot better off.

Nobody is really going anywhere during this recession. If the economy was roaring in the rest of America while tanking in California like it was back in the early to mid 1990s, then you'd see a mass out-migration of Californians. Problem is now pretty much the only part of the US where the economy doesn't royally suck are the backwater states of North and South Dakota with populations that are less than a lot of California COUNTIES. Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Florida & North Carolina - all big BOOM states just 3-4 years ago now have unemployment rates that either rival California or are right behind California. Oregon's is even higher than California. So good luck everyone in ditching California and finding your Utopian low tax, economic boomtime state.

I was born and raised in Texas. I am not surprised to read about moving vans on I-10 driving East from California. After I earned my engineering degree, I moved out of state to Ohio. I can say that between the two, Texas is much better tax wise and cost of living wise. I was making about $13.00 an hour in Texas at a grocery store while searching for my current job. I was able to make ends meet and save a little each month. The taxes in Ohio are brutal compared to Texas. I now make way more than before, but I don’t feel that much better off. I have a newer car and more savings, but I pay more to live here. Both states have the same sales tax rate but Ohio makes you pay an income tax for the privilege of living here.

The cost of living is also much less in Texas. The last time I looked at real estate in San Antonio , the city that I left, I could buy a new 4 bedroom 2 bath home with about 1800 ft^2 of living space for $120k. I remember seeing huge developments go up overnight. They would build about 800 homes over a year time frame and have all of them sold quickly. I am sure they were built as cheap as possible, but I think it was like that everywhere. My dad in Dallas bought a new “nice” home in 2003 and it turned out to have some crappy quality to it.

As stated in another thread, I know water will be a challenge for many cities in Texas. They had to ration water last summer. The air quality is much worst there as well. Compared to California, the air may be on par. I miss my home state a lot, but I have no immediate plans of returning home. I may go home many years down the road.

Misstrial says

Here in the Silicon Valley at the Home Depot on DeAnza, the numbers of day laborers out front near the sidewalk has really gone down - from about 25 last month to about 3 recently about 2 weeks ago.

I still see a fair number there. I avoid that store as much as possible because of it. I don't like the stares as I'm driving in, especially when driving my truck.

Misstrial says

What I witnessed on the 10 freeway in southern AZ and southern NM where I lived less than 2 miles from the 10, were cars and trucks with CA license plates headed east on the 10 to Texas. Probably going to Austin or San Antonio. By trucks I mean Ryder or U Haul moving trucks.

Are you saying CA is going to run out of moving trucks? :)

I guess it's normal situation for rental truck companies to have mostly one-way client traffic (at least seasonally), so they have to reposition dropped trucks themselves. That sometimes creates interesting price deviations. If I recall correctly, some time during dotcom bust U-haul website was quoting one way truck rent ~$2500 for San Jose (CA) -> Santa Fe (NM), and ~$200 in the opposite direction. When I checked last month, the difference wasn't anywhere near that record. Some people say "yet", I personally think it wouldn't be as big this time: both Bay Area and New Mexico economies are in deep shit.

stocksjustgroup: Not saying there aren't *any* there - just saying a *noticeable drop* in their numbers. Sort of scary, but shortly after moving here, driving into that parking lot, several of them rushed my car - I suppose white females were previously good customers. However, being the daughter of a master mechanic, I can turn a wrench myself just fine, thank you very much, and just kept driving slowly to a parking stall. They also rushed the pickup trucks, I supposed because they're hoping its a contractor looking for labor.

Following that situation, I only go to HD with my husband when the other stores listed below don't have what I'm looking for. If they see a white male in the car, they apparently stay back because they didn't rush the car as when I was by myself.

Recently, we've been going to Los Altos Hardware, OSH in Sunnyvale off El Camino, and Lowes on Wolfe - whole lot better than HD and they do not have a corporate policy that favors "day laborers."

Yeah, alga: although we moved by Atlas (very good experience - they are the only line that does a background and CITIZENSHIP check on each of their movers) we also rented a Budget moving truck for small personal possessions that we wanted to have with us since arrival of the moving van is usually several days lagging behind our own arrival.

Called around to Hertz/Penske et al and the rates going back to Cali are as you posted - not much difference at all going to Cali as opposed to going from Cali.

Still, discounts out there:

AAA Club members = 20% discount with Budget and Hertz (although they may have reduced it to 15% discount).

But the *best* discount is a coupon in the US Postal Service Change of Address pack at the Post Office: Budget had a great coupon discount of 20% per truck size and so even though we were eligible for the Auto Club discount through Hertz, we went with Budge. Didn't go UHaul since we have seen waaaay too many on the side of the road in NM and AZ. Nothing like being broken down in the middle of nowhere when its 114 degrees outside :(

Nobody is really going anywhere during this recession. ...so good luck everyone in ditching California and finding your Utopian low tax, economic boomtime state.

In many areas California's cost of living is much higher than many states. Property taxes are higher, income taxes are higher, etc. Not to mention extras like mello roos. For many people ditching California is the only option that makes sense, if they can find a job elsewhere. It's not an economic boomtime anywhere.

CA sales tax is very high too.

I know a lot of really really rich people (due mostly to the sport I participate in). I have yet to hear one of them mention moving out of CA, even the ones hurt by the stock market crash.

I would imagine many of the people moving out are/were short timers anyway. Bye-bye!

zetabeos1 says

As for the rich moving out.. 10% of your income is taxes.. pretty heafty considering the alternative of zero in Nevada.

The sort of income that gets hit with income tax isn't relevant for "rich" people. If your wealth is defined by your income, you aren't rich. A million dollars does not make you rich. In most states, a million dollars is barely enough to retire on.

Furthermore, zero taxes in Nevada is meaningless if you can't get a job there.

All you've described are some middle class people leaving, which is exactly what I said was happening. It's simply too expensive here for the middle class. The poor are screwed, but they're not any worse off than they would be in any other state, and at least the weather is nice here. The rich are simply not affected by anything that happens in the state, except possibly the loss of police services (though, then they'll just hire private security).

Also -- WorldNetDaily? Really? Aside from the simply wrong statistics (even wikipedia can tell you that there are more millionaire households in CA today than there was in 2000), you're quoting from a website that claimed that 9/11 was God attacking america and that black people are inherently immoral.

Misstrial says

stocksjustgroup: Not saying there aren’t *any* there - just saying a *noticeable drop* in their numbers. Sort of scary, but shortly after moving here, driving into that parking lot, several of them rushed my car - I suppose white females were previously good customers. However, being the daughter of a master mechanic, I can turn a wrench myself just fine, thank you very much, and just kept driving slowly to a parking stall. They also rushed the pickup trucks, I supposed because they’re hoping its a contractor looking for labor.

I'm a dude. A BIG dude, and I don't like it. They don't rush me, but I don't like the staredowns. If I look them in the eye to at least acknowledge their humanity, that could be giving them the wrong signal. If I don't look at them and acknowledge their humanity, they may think I'm an elitist jerk.

So I just avoid it altogether. If Home Depot wants to support this type of thing, that's their business; and it's my business to take my business elsewhere.

"I’m a dude. A BIG dude, and I don’t like it. They don’t rush me, but I don’t like the staredowns. If I look them in the eye to at least acknowledge their humanity, that could be giving them the wrong signal. If I don’t look at them and acknowledge their humanity, they may think I’m an elitist jerk."

Yeah, I figured its just best for me to keep my eyes focused on the pavement and not make any eye contact with them.

Happy to have found Lowes, though. None of that happens in the parking lot.

:)

zetabeos1 says

Kevin, im talking about people, who I know personally, who have a couple a million who moved out due to high taxes. They moved out to escape state income taxes on their investments. With 5-6 million they have the luxary to live anywhere. Why pay 10% of your investment income on a bankrupt state ?

Your friends need better accountants. A vacation home in a tax haven state is all it takes to ensure that you won't pay anything in CA.

Those articles all ignore population declines in no-tax states like Washington and growth in high tax states like New Mexico and North Carolina. Why? It sounds like somebody has an agenda. Perhaps the reason for migration is more nuanced than tax rates?

Personally, I'm planning on leaving CA due to housing costs, poor quality schools, and the complete uncertainty about what will happen to the government here. If I move to seattle as I'm planning, I'll take home an extra $1000 or so a month -- nice, but hardly something that is going to be a deciding factor in where I live.

Austinhousingbubble says

For the record, North Carolina has no State Tax.

What are you talking about? Everything I can find online says that NC has a 7.75% income tax rate, including capital gains. Including the government web site (http://www.dornc.com/taxes/individual/rates.html)

You are correct! I guess I was thinking of Fl, from where a veritable exodus of residents relocated to NC over the last several years.

smith5550john says

Nobody is really going anywhere during this recession. If the economy was roaring in the rest of America while tanking in California like it was back in the early to mid 1990s, then you’d see a mass out-migration of Californians. Problem is now pretty much the only part of the US where the economy doesn’t royally suck are the backwater states of North and South Dakota with populations that are less than a lot of California COUNTIES. Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Florida & North Carolina - all big BOOM states just 3-4 years ago now have unemployment rates that either rival California or are right behind California. Oregon’s is even higher than California. So good luck everyone in ditching California and finding your Utopian low tax, economic boomtime state.

It's called Texas. See this weeks Economist.

Not that I'd choose to live there again...but I understand why others would. It's a good place to get to make and keep money.

Misstrial...
definately keep eyes down and only go to HD with huzbund.
What a stupid bird! gimme a break or just keep eyes low.

Kevin says

zetabeos1 says

As for the rich moving out.. 10% of your income is taxes.. pretty heafty considering the alternative of zero in Nevada.

The sort of income that gets hit with income tax isn’t relevant for “rich” people. If your wealth is defined by your income, you aren’t rich. A million dollars does not make you rich. In most states, a million dollars is barely enough to retire on.
Furthermore, zero taxes in Nevada is meaningless if you can’t get a job there.
All you’ve described are some middle class people leaving, which is exactly what I said was happening. It’s simply too expensive here for the middle class. The poor are screwed, but they’re not any worse off than they would be in any other state, and at least the weather is nice here. The rich are simply not affected by anything that happens in the state, except possibly the loss of police services (though, then they’ll just hire private security).
Also — WorldNetDaily? Really? Aside from the simply wrong statistics (even wikipedia can tell you that there are more millionaire households in CA today than there was in 2000), you’re quoting from a website that claimed that 9/11 was God attacking america and that black people are inherently immoral.

Sorry, but you couldn't be more wrong. California taxes capital gains at the same rate of regular income taxes. This is exactly why rich people don't want to live and pay taxes in California.

Better accountant? Do you mean immoral accountant? Sorry, but owning a "vacation" home in a non-income / capital gains tax state (i.e. FL) and not paying capital gains tax in CA is actually against the law if your primary place of work is in California (or if you qualify as a resident of CA for any reason).

Now I'm not saying most of these people will get caught, but just owning a home in a low tax state and using that to get out of capital gains taxes is illegal.