patrick.net

Vicente says

Exactly same as in US. Has anyone in the oligarchy announced the end of “The Ownership Society” and said publicly we should just forget the whole thing and restore normalcy in any reasonable timeframe? Hank Paulson tell people just jingle-mail in their keys and let’s get on with it? Did banks offer to en-masse write down loan balances to actual supportable values? NO!

Hank Paulson did in fact on several occasions state publically and in testimony to Congress..’ the Government should not impede the on going housing correction’.

http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/hp1142.htm

"We are working to minimize the impact of the housing correction on the rest of the economy, but we do not want to impede its progress --- because the sooner we turn the corner on housing, the sooner we will see home values stabilize, the sooner we will see more people buying homes, and the sooner housing will again contribute to economic growth."

Bzzzt! From Hank Paulson remarks before Congress, March 3rd 2008:

Third, the current public discussion often conflates the number of so-called "underwater" homeowners – that is, those with mortgages greater than the value of their house – with projections of foreclosures. Let's be precise: being underwater does not affect your ability to pay your mortgage, nor create a government responsibility for assistance. Homeowners who can afford their mortgage should honor their obligations --- and most do.

Obviously, being underwater is not insignificant to homeowners in that position. But negative equity does not necessarily result in foreclosure. Most people buy homes as a long-term investment, as a place to raise a family and put down roots in a community. Homeowners who can afford their payments and don't have to move, can choose to stay in their house. And let me emphasize, any homeowner who can afford his mortgage payment but chooses to walk away from an underwater property is simply a speculator – and one who is not honoring his obligations.

In other words, you dirty peasants need to keep that yoke on and pull my plow. What should be a BUSINESS decision becomes a matter of HONOR if you are on the oligarchy end of things.

"The Banks also could have lowered the interest rates and increased the length of the loans to 40 or 50 years and most people would probably have stayed in their homes or at least have been able to rent the houses out. So I can only conclude that the Banks want all this to happen. The question is - what is it that they want down the road."

I think part of the answer was leaked by a Citi exec. when discussing the recent “cash for keys” program being implemented by them:
"“We are concerned that if there is a foreclosure glut at some point in the cycle it would have to have a negative impact on house prices,” and Citi’s pilot program should help prevent a build-up in foreclosed homes, said Sanjiv Das, the chief executive of CitiMortgage in an interview."

In other words, Citi wants to start dumping REO's on the real estate market as fast as possible before the other banks/lenders beat them to it. I think we will see the pace of declining prices in housing pick up in the second half of 2010, if not sooner. They see the massive mountains of defaults piling up with more to come and don't want to get caught holding the bag when prices nosedive. I can see real panic selling on the horizon - probably lasting a year or more. I wouldn't be surprised to see Q3 2011 home prices off by 30% from today's levels.

The second dip in a bubble correction is almost always the largest one. The first dip is usually the smallest. So far we have the first dip with a small correction last year that didn't seem to have much steam and was totally govmnt induced. This created a little buying pressure for lenders to sell into as prices bounced modestly. Get the last few suckers to buy-in thinking they are getting a bargain before the sheet hits the fan.

Aside from deflation in housing, we have had deflation in computers and consumer electronics for years. Stocks have had 2 large deflationary periods in the last decade (with possibly another to come). I see deflation coming in many areas except maybe necessities. Personally, I think this is a good thing and long overdue. When prices drop to reasonable levels buyers will come back into the market and the economy will pick up again.

We bought a house in Fairfield Ct ( on Westport border/Sturges Highway) for $1, 650,000 in 2006 because we moved here from out of state and bought after quickly selling our house in Boston. We have seen estimates and comps now that show that the house is worth between 1 and 1.2 million and it would probably be on the market for years. We aren't looking to sell it now. However, the mortgage is approx. 1 million which makes us uncomfortable if the value continues to drop. Needless to say, we are making no renovations or upgrades in the house after losing (on paper) at least half a million in a few years. About Zillow, it is bizarre: it values our house at $1.9 to 2.3 million. Not the real world.

Bap: You are no longer the winner of the unintelligible grammar contest. Not only do we hae no idea what the hell this post is about, the grammar bees really awful and. :)

@sybrib: I missed your post until today. Re: "middle class, ad naseum", I can only respond: well said. I agree that the "middle class" entitlement attitude has dug a huge hole in this country. The problem is that once people think the world owes them something, they start thinking that you owe them something... like those assets in your bank account. The net result is to make things harder on the responsible people, too, because you end up dragging everyone else forward.

This country used to have an Ant mentality. Through various means, we are far along the path to Locust.

Brand, thanks, I think I wrote it after I quit counting the martinis.

Brand says

The problem is that once people think the world owes them something, they start thinking that you owe them something… like those assets in your bank account. The net result is to make things harder on the responsible people, too, because you end up dragging everyone else forward.

......AMEN!

Vicente says

Bzzzt! From Hank Paulson remarks before Congress, March 3rd 2008:
Third, the current public discussion often conflates the number of so-called “underwater” homeowners – that is, those with mortgages greater than the value of their house – with projections of foreclosures. Let’s be precise: being underwater does not affect your ability to pay your mortgage, nor create a government responsibility for assistance. Homeowners who can afford their mortgage should honor their obligations — and most do.
Obviously, being underwater is not insignificant to homeowners in that position. But negative equity does not necessarily result in foreclosure. Most people buy homes as a long-term investment, as a place to raise a family and put down roots in a community. Homeowners who can afford their payments and don’t have to move, can choose to stay in their house. And let me emphasize, any homeowner who can afford his mortgage payment but chooses to walk away from an underwater property is simply a speculator – and one who is not honoring his obligations.
In other words, you dirty peasants need to keep that yoke on and pull my plow. What should be a BUSINESS decision becomes a matter of HONOR if you are on the oligarchy end of things

I dont see an issue with what Paulson said. Back in 2004-06 you couldnt even come close to making people understand that prices were out of wack with fundementals. All you heard around here is how Google, dual income families, Tech jobs, or some other nonsense was going to keep home prices higher. I truly hope these comments by Paulson gets pounded into peoples heads.

Greece is insolvent because it lacks control over its own currency. If it were allowed to temporarily devalue its own money, it would be fine, but the Greeks made the mistake of believing that joining the Euro was all upside.

I'm very curious to see where this goes. If things go badly for the three highly troubled countries (not to mention the unmentioned massive debts of wealthy EU countries, particularly France), it could lead in two directions

1. Dissolve the Euro, go back to independent economies. If this happens, anyone with assets in dollars is going to make out like a bandit.

2. Convert into a true single economy, along the lines of the US. I'm skeptical that this would go through any time in the next century though -- for all the talk of European unity, most of these countries still hate each other.

Kevin--

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/15/opinion/15krugman.html

says much of the same things as you...

Hmm. Wonder if those September $150's are looking better?

very interesting discussion. I was particularly intrigued by your discussion on gold. I think the economy is headed for serious inflation problems, and that one of the only ways for people to at least try to protect themselves is to invest in gold and gold mining stocks because of the continued debasement of the U.S. dollar. I came across a pretty good article on some of these topics at http://www.goldalert.com/ called "Gold Price Spikes to $1,085 – Gold Bull to Resume?" that discusses the Federal Reserve and government's continued policies of trying to prevent the recession from running its course by printing more money, at the expense of the dollar and mounting deficit.

And I'd like to see the head of Hank Paulson on a pike, along with a few others, being paraded down a street. I suspect neither of us will get what we want.

yikes. sorry to hear you bought at the peak of the bubble. Like buying shares of pets.com in december 1999. Few people could time any bubble; still I'm surprised why many like you, did not cash in by selling in a place like Boston and just rent for a few years... unfortunately it seems you put too much in to just walk away from a 1 million dollar mortgage. but if you don't mind living there for 25 yrs everything will probably be fine. people who HAVE to sell (divorce, job loss, illness etc.) are really fucked.

I'm in for June '10 for 5k. I'm holding on 'till after the Fed stops is QE program. Something's going to shake loose. A couple rumblings in Europe are promisi

War is Peace. Up is Down. Wrong is Right, etc. How else can you explain the historical fact that a war expansionist won the peace prize?

Oh, and I would just like to add that many professional scientists gladly falsify data to "support" their own biased presuppositions.

I happen to agree with Krugman on this issue, but by and large I don't care for his opinions because his track record is pretty average among economists. I'm particularly annoyed at him because he refuses to admit when he's wrong, and he acts like winning the "Nobel Prize in economics" makes everything he says the gospel.

lmao

Actually I think rumblings in Europe are a problem for gold. As people are concerned about the Euro zone they're buying Dollars short term, thereby depressing gold prices.

My take on the Japanese situation of the last 15-20 years is that they propped up their banks instead of writing off the bad debt. I remember discussions back then about how they were just hiding the bad debt inside the banks. I think that slowed down their recovery. I see the same thing happening in the US. I think we're in for a prolonged period of shadow inventory and other problems.

I think we'll see a long term decline of the USD, whether to the Euro or just to the global basket of currencies and commodities. I'm going to watch for a breakout in gold and try an options bracket but right now I just don't see much movement in anything. It's like everyone and everything is just slowing down, afraid of making a move. That, or everyone's just watching the Olympics...

Basically we see people flock to the USD when things get tops turvy, and then head straight back to emerging currencies when things stabilize again, since those economies often offer up better returns.

As things stabilize more here, I'm sure people are going to flock elsewhere, hoping to catch a big uptick in some other country. The Euro is probably going to head down though. I'm not sure how the USD will do, probably better than most countries but probably worse against some of the emerging countries.

If things keep going up and down, I could see people buying more into gold as a last resort currency.

If the Euro falls apart good for me. Gold is nothing but a hedge against the worst anyhow.

I bought some more Gold & Silver about 2 weeks ago. All the cash I kept on the sidelines since last June has gone straight into the metals. I was expecting to dump some into stocks but I've been waiting for a pullback for nearly 8 months. It never came. I always steered clear of the Eurozone. It's obvious they can't maintain their current system for more than a decade.

Thanks, Johndouglas! We love you here. Loved the part where you push option arms. They're so awesome! Sarcasm - just another service I offer.

Nomograph says

You two should get a room.

elliemae says

lmao

This is not Ad Hominem from Nomograss followed by laughter from the "compassionate" ellie may.

No, it couldn't be. They would never resort to personal attacks and jokes at someone else's imagined expense. Not a bunch of internet bullies at all. Go back to grade school where you can LYAO with kids of the same mentality.

You two should get a dose of your own medicine, and eat that for supper.

This article discusses how shortly after WWI the real beneficiaries of the war were exposed, debunking the myth of "a good war."

After every major war until WWII the United States dismantled and downsized its military and went about paying back the money borrowed to finance the war. Since WWII however the size and expenditures of the US military have grown (along with the casualties of its wars and undeclared wars). Our military spending is largely responsible for our large fiscal deficits. Our military occupation around the world is largely responsible for anti-American sentiment around the world.

AdHominem says

After every major war until WWII the United States dismantled and downsized its military and went about paying back the money borrowed to finance the war. Since WWII however the size and expenditures of the US military have grown (along with the casualties of its wars and undeclared wars). Our military spending is largely responsible for our large fiscal deficits. Our military occupation around the world is largely responsible for anti-American sentiment around the world.

In every imaginable way, America is an empire with military bases in obscure places all over the world. Coincidently, this all began soon after the creation of the private bankster cartel known as the Federal Reserve. The Great War (World War I) was the most avoidable war in history and benefitted only the banks and the military industrial complexes here and in Europe. Our involvement in it was beyond ridiculous. Woodrow Wilson stated we were going to fight this European war to "make the world safe for Democracy." Too bad few noticed that Europe didn't have any democracies to fight for. Now our soldiers are dying to again spread democracy, even though in the long history of the Middle East there has never been a Muslim country that has implemented Democratic government on their own. Democracy is anathema to Islam. Once our presence is removed from this region, it will collapse into chaos and civil war. Our leaders know this, and in spite of their rhetoric, I believe they have no intention to ever withdraw our military from this region.

AdHominem says

This is not Ad Hominem from Nomograss followed by laughter from the “compassionate” ellie may.

Actually, it was.

AdHominem says

They would never resort to personal attacks and jokes at someone else’s imagined expense. Not a bunch of internet bullies at all.

Thank you for recognizing that we're not internet bullies. I'll sleep better tonight.

So, what's the area with the lowest cost per square foot in the US?

Mind providing us where you got those worldwide price data?

Actually for 1-oku 3500-man yen you can get just about anything, condo-wise, in Tokyo.

Here's an example of a super-deluxe condo for $1.4M.

Even with 3% 10-year fixed interest rates people can't afford $1.5M 40-year mortgages in Tokyo. THAT'S WHAT KILLED THEM.

None of those examples really work for SF. Every city is different. Manhattan is a global city with 1000X the wealthflows of SF. London is the most livable city in the whole of what remains of the British Empire.

SF is not Monaco or the other enclaves you list.

Hong Kong and Singapore are kinda similar but are true island-states, with master-planned Executive economies, not counties in a larger, competitive context

Don't get me wrong, like PA I think the fortress of SF will always be very expensive. The only question is how big the fortress is.

elliemae says

AdHominem says

This is not Ad Hominem from Nomograss followed by laughter from the “compassionate” ellie may.

Actually, it was.
AdHominem says

They would never resort to personal attacks and jokes at someone else’s imagined expense. Not a bunch of internet bullies at all.

Thank you for recognizing that we’re not internet bullies. I’ll sleep better tonight.

Glad you can revel in your inner demon. Have a HELL of a day!

Ellimae, no worries, he probably has AFLACK!

AdHominem says

Glad you can revel in your inner demon. Have a HELL of a day!

Thanks.

Me & my inner demons are going out tonight. We were out driving earlier on our motorsickles, saw some land and bought the farm. It's in a beautiful valley with plenty of drainage - the road to the property circles the drain and is quite lovely. I was thirsty after the ride, but I accidentally kicked the bucket by the door and consequently am still dying of thirst. We were called home before we got the chance to stop at the store.

I didn't want to go home - began fighting my demons but I lost - even though I fought the good fight. My demons are now upstairs taking a nap. May they rest in peace.

Oh my GAWD!

He was tossing out some numbers. SF isn't as expensive as some other places in the world. The rest of the US, ditto. Not earth shattering info but interesting. There doesn't always have to be a point, and there isn't alway cause for an argument.

Sometimes, "is" simply means "is."

Perish the thought! I'll probably be spilling it on myself and don't want to waste too much.

You bought a farm? Well, I'm not so sure. I wasn't barn yesterday. Hay, this is the last straw.
As far as war goes, tanks but no tanks, unless you tread on me.
PS: I once bought a farm but got rid of it post haste. Too much hassle. Ever try to teach an ant how to milk a goat?

>> Yeah but I still kinda want an answer.

No you don't, for the answer is right there in front of your beak, but you still can't see it. Stop lying to yourself. That would be a good starting point.

You're going to be the death of me, Mikey. But it's your funeral. My friend Ashley warned me about you - and I thought she was just choking. Now I'm not so sure, so I'll follow the procession of this post.

You offend me with your comments about my family - My aunt is outside, milking the goats right now. What makes you think she can't? She's a tough one, for chore. She can juggle the chickens with one hand while she shovels the bull with the other. Cow's that for a hardass woman?

I'm plowing through this post, was hoping for death puns 'cause I was called out by Ad Hom.