patrick.net

We're polar opposites, I guess.

Well, koala you know.

going down ... down .... down .... to a "thud". We shall then see the real bad economic times that are needed to absorb the fake-ass free-lending growth from 96 to 2006.

I hope that silly Cal laws that outlaw the burning of wood in a house for heat will be ended when times get tuff.

justme says

By poll I mean a graphic poll where you click and then see the results.

hey ... "graphic poll" ..... Mikey, do your magic!

schmitz_kris says

The forex is essential for there to even BE a modern economy.

Yes, but retail's involvement in that market is de minimis. You may profit from the FX market's moves, but you do not make that market.

Day trading is just the equivalent of going to Vegas. No new wealth creation is being supported here, just redistribution between speculators.

Troy says

Yes, but retail’s involvement in that market is de minimis. You may profit from the FX market’s moves, but you do not make that market.

Thank you for that, Captain Obvious. A single assembly line worker does not make a car, either. Who cares?

I said trading forex was WORK, and it is. It involves a ton of research, studying, learning, experimentation, mastery of one's emotions, sticking to a plan, business decisions, etc. It's the same as running a small business. Of course it's SPECULATIVE. Life itself is a speculation.

Vegas is FAR easier than forex and is based purely on luck and guessing. There is no technical analysis, no fundamental analysis of market movements, trend following, etc. I don't think 95% of all Vegas visitors lose either.

schmitz_kris says

I don’t think 95% of all Vegas visitors lose either.

Probably closer to 100%

Bap33 says

justme says

By poll I mean a graphic poll where you click and then see the results.

hey … “graphic poll” ….. Mikey, do your magic!

What? And give folks the shaft?

schmitz_kris says

I said trading forex was WORK, and it is. It involves a ton of research, studying, learning, experimentation, mastery of one’s emotions, sticking to a plan, business decisions, etc. It’s the same as running a small business. Of course it’s SPECULATIVE. Life itself is a speculation.

Actually that sounds like texas hold 'em to me. You can say what you want to make yourself feel better about what you do, but you are adding nothing to society. You are basically playing poker.

Poker is a game of chance, luck. The currency markets move rhythmically, logically, fractally - they have an intelligence that can be tapped into and ascertained. What do you think, that banks spin a roulette wheel to decide which currencies to buy or sell, how much and when to do so?

Nomo, I don't think I made any reference to production by Americans in any of my posts. Tell me where I did so.

I am not fat. Most Americans are. FACT. I am not lazy. It's true that I don't work physically hard trading, but I work hard physically in many other areas of my life. I'm very athletic, lift weights, walk and ride my bike much of the time instead of drive, etc. Most Americans do not. We spend the most hours watching TV.

I would not personally recommend anything written by Kathy Lien. When I was studying and reading about the forex, I did it 100% online without purchasing any books or information. There is no reason to - it's all free. I also used to chat a lot with brokers during down/non-busy times - I learned a ton that way.

Get a job? I already volunteer. I would need access to the internet every two hours as well, and I don't know if many employers would allow that.

schmitz_kris says

Poker is a game of chance, luck. The currency markets move rhythmically, logically, fractally - they have an intelligence that can be tapped into and ascertained. What do you think, that banks spin a roulette wheel to decide which currencies to buy or sell, how much and when to do so?

Good poker players would heartily disagree with you there. You're betting against the other players, not the house. You are reading the faces and learning the betting routines of the other players and using that knowledge to your advantage. I think the analogy is very appropriate to what you do. In fact, I think there is more skill in poker than there is in currency trading.

Unless you engage in arbitrage opportunities, then I think you are gambling.

As I indicated in my post above, currency markets move on fundamental and technical principles, not by random chance. Sorry.

It is my personal opinion that arbitrage is for the unsophisticated and those with average IQ, you know, like Johnny E. Businessmajor, who drinks beer, watches Nascar and the like. Well, perhaps a slight bit above that, but not markedly.

Funny thing, I have never received a Form W-2G in my life.

marcus says

The baby boom. Not just the upcoming cost of their retirement, but also the fact that so many boomers haven’t saved enough, so they won’t be consuming with gusto any time soon.

I wouldn't so much worry about baby boomers. They mostly bought property and was able to refinance at a low interest rate. Their social security checks will cover them if they aren't rich from this real estate situation already. The ones needing to sell and downgrade were probably irresponsible and probably took out HELOCs. They do not need to sell. They rather let their kids inherit it.

I think in the next couple of years, prices may drop another 10% or so and a whole mass of buyers will come forward and drive prices up. This cycle will keep continuing. It may get back down to 1998 levels. But not in my lifetime. That's why I'm trying to buy now.

schmitz_kris says

As I indicated in my post above, currency markets move on fundamental and technical principles, not by random chance. Sorry.

Of course they do--but in order to make money, you have to be able to predict the future better than everyone else. So, unless you have a crystal ball then you are almost guaranteed to lose in the long run.

From where do you get all of these fallacious, preconceived notions? Trading has nothing to do with crystal balls, and I hate the phrase "predict the future." Life is logical, ordered and is based on cause and effect. If it gets dark and stormy outside you can reasonably expect the likelihood of rain to increase. If you eat food that contains unnatural trans fatty acids you can reasonably expect the permeability of your cell membranes to be altered negatively. Like Gerald Celente says, "present events form future trends." As intelligence increases the connection between present events and probability of future outcomes becomes more apparent.

I honestly do not even know what my accuracy rate is (would take too long to do the calculation considering the number of years I have used my methodology), but I do know that based on my stop loss and take profit levels, which are fixed except in the case of sudden market reversal movements (perhaps 5-10% of the time - I trade on a 1 HR chart/timeframe so such movements are subjective/my experienced opinions), I can be incorrect/wrong 66% of the time and still be profitable.

You're sitting at home on a workday too, tatupu. Are you a trader (albeit with a very different philosophy than my own)?

schmitz_kris says

From where do you get all of these fallacious, preconceived notions? Trading has nothing to do with crystal balls, and I hate the phrase “predict the future.” Life is logical, ordered and is based on cause and effect. If it gets dark and stormy outside you can reasonably expect the likelihood of rain to increase. If you eat food that contains unnatural trans fatty acids you can reasonably expect the permeability of your cell membranes to be altered negatively. Like Gerald Celente says, “present events form future trends.” As intelligence increases the connection between present events and probability of future outcomes becomes more apparent.

My point is that you don't make money by betting on rain tomorrow after it gets dark and stormy outside. Because everyone knows this and it is immediately built into the price. You only make money when you realize that it's going to rain when it's still clear and sunny outside. And a crystal ball helps immensely for that kind of work.

No. The market has usually already moved slightly (but sometimes markedly and sometimes substantially) before I get an entry signal via my methodology. I don't predict any future - I FOLLOW what I believe to be newly-formed/ing trends.

The fact that you mentioned the phrase "predict the future" is indicative of a masculine thought pattern. You want TO TAKE, TO SEIZE, TO REIGN IN. This is natural for males. Something like 95%+ of traders are males, and something like 90-95% of them lose over time. Markets, however, are of the natural world (emotions) and have a femenine nature and do not move in a way males inherently understand. One of the best mentors I had was a woman in Africa. She was the best I have EVER seen, and I have seen a lot. I soon realized it was her femenine thought processes that helped her trading, and I fought my natural male instincts while trading and instead adopted hers. The change in my trading was pretty much instantaneous.

u know, I thought u were going to post the hitler one, and guess what, I was right!

Very funny, thanks for sharing.

justme says

Good stuff, thomas.wong.
Imagine that, only 241 publicly traded companies left in Silicon Valley

241 was at the end of 2008, factor in since then... much much lower and still falling.

Monday morning and another one bites the dust.

Dell to buy storage provider 3Par for $1.13B

Pretty sure some in the valley will either get a one way ticket to Round Rock, Tx or get cut.
I hope some around here know what 1991 was like. If not, your in for a heck of a ride!

Vain says

It may get back down to 1998 levels. But not in my lifetime. That’s why I’m trying to buy now.

Dont count it out yet.... crap changes here really fast!

thunderlips11 says

He was buying things yielding 10% at 30 cents on the dollar from all types of bankrupt financial institutions knowing which bond holders were going to get bailed out. He also listed the bonds to avoid that he knew weren’t going to get bailed out

Then this might be of interest:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/how-front-run-fed-best-em

Yeah, but we don't have bonds of Citigroup and AIG priced at pennies on the dollar to buy up anymore.

This was the first Downfall parody video I ever saw; years ago, before I knew about the original movie. I loved it; the part where he says "I should hold a big sign over my head that says 'Idiot'!" is perfect!

thunderlips11 says

Can always take advantage of the market is US Treasuries though.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZB&p=d1

You are talking aout making a few %. This guy bought bonds with a 10% yield for 25 cents on the dollar. After they got bailed out, they were worth 100 cents on the dollar and still have their 10% yield. He instantly made 400% and collects is still getting 10 cents each year on the dollar. The bond holders of these institutions should have gotten completely wiped out. Instead, they got rewarded. The privileged Wall St. elite came in and snatched up the bond despite the fact they were worthless because they had info that your average investor didn't have access to. Uncle Sam errrr... Uncle Ben and Uncle Timmy came in and made guaranteed that these clowns got rich. They were probably the same jokers who loaded up on Put options the week before Bear went belly up.

mikey says

I pee in the woods.

So do I. But I'm a bear.

Oh and I'm a bear on the economy for the short-term (next 1-3 years) and a bull on the long-term (10 years out.)

I believe we're going to have another recession shortly and then things should bottom out and ride at a level pace for about 5-10 years. Once all of the crap that's out there that has no justification for existing (no real value behind it) falls out of the economy, we'll see the economy become more efficient again. This is assuming we are moving toward greater regulation and taxing the rich at higher rates to even things out. If we don't restore a more level playing field in our economy I see bigger and more drastic erosion of our economic health as a country and would become bearish on the long term.

Trying to front run the fed on treasuries is pointless. It's akin to trying to loot the Titanic while it's on its way down. There's no point. Simply buying and holding gold has easily outperformed that strategy, and also, it requires much less thought/work.

Nomograph says

schmitz_kris says

Americans are spoiled, entitled. They want their free money/wealth/lifestyle, and they want it NOW.

schmitz_kris says

I trade forex from home using an algorithm I invented. That’s why I’m on the computer (and thus various forums) so darn much. I plan on being retired within 5-7 years or so.

Oh great. Another pimply-faced wanna-be day trading doofus who thinks he’s gonna retire in 5 years by punching a few keystrokes instead of actually working.
As if that wasn’t bad enough, you have the gall to call OTHER people lazy and stupid?
I hope you have a plan B. You’re gonna need it.

The stock market environment since March 09 has convinced several people that they are trading gurus.

I'd like to note that I feel prices now are about right in comparison with interest rates. If interest rates rise back to 8%, we'll see near 1998 prices.

But interest rates won't move. So we're stuck getting higher mortgages, and paying more property tax. There is no prospect of refinancing for a nice savings in the future in this market. It also renders your downpayment useless at these interest rates unless you're talking about 100's of thousands.

:)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUldGc06S3U

US Real Estate Home prices adjusted for inflation plotted as a roll.er coast.er

They don't need to confiscate it anymore.

Gold is rarely used these days, unlike during the GD when it was actually not unheard of to be seen in daily use. All they have to do is tax the hell out of it (ie. 90%) when sold and that would achieve a similar effect.

theoakman says

The stock market environment since March 09 has convinced several people that they are trading gurus

I knew lots of trading geniuses in the late 90's.

thunderlips11 says

theoakman says

thunderlips11 says

Can always take advantage of the market is US Treasuries though.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZB&p=d1

You are talking aout making a few %. This guy bought bonds with a 10% yield for 25 cents on the dollar. After they got bailed out, they were worth 100 cents on the dollar and still have their 10% yield. He instantly made 400% and collects is still getting 10 cents each year on the dollar.

Oh, I’m sure nobody is going to make Paulsson bank. But hey, guaranteed profit is profit!

Good threads. I think a lot of people miss the point. They aren't going to hyperinflate for some school theory about QE or Keynesian economics but simply because they have to to keep the bubble afloat. If you had a confederacy where you could dump all your losses then you'd be a rock star gambler. And get fat bonus checks to boot! That is what it is and why they have to continue to act to keep the bubble-o-nomics going. Keynes and QE and other folderol is just cover chat. Its the black hole for losses they really are after. You don't have to invest well when Uncle Sam guarantees profits.

MarkInSF says

theoakman says

The stock market environment since March 09 has convinced several people that they are trading gurus

I knew lots of trading geniuses in the late 90’s.

I got pretty much out of stocks 8 to 9 months ago when I incorrectly forecasted a rise in Natural Gas prices but still made 20% on all the plays I made on that forecast. Most traders I know would come up with some sort of explanation as to why they were right rather than simply admit they got lucky.

I don't know if I'm a bear or a bull. I trust one of the regulars to place me in the correct ecosystem.

So Geitner is just Ranger Smith?
And all then houses are de pick-a-nick baskets?

Generally when I think bull or bear I think people screaming 7000! or 14000!

There is also a group here, which believes we're recovering but there are going to be up's and down's from here but neither a major bull nor major bear market will be seen for at least a couple of years.

@Bap33 if you're not sure where you fit, I would then put you into the above category.

You're either SURE it's going to 7K or you're sure it's going to 14K or you're sure it's not going to do much..

ARMageddon has been deferred until further notice. Who said you can't get blood from a stone.

6. Come to terms with current home prices and realize that "Don't 1099 Me Bro" expires at the end of 2012.