patrick.net

Trying to front run the fed on treasuries is pointless. It's akin to trying to loot the Titanic while it's on its way down. There's no point. Simply buying and holding gold has easily outperformed that strategy, and also, it requires much less thought/work.

Nomograph says

schmitz_kris says

Americans are spoiled, entitled. They want their free money/wealth/lifestyle, and they want it NOW.

schmitz_kris says

I trade forex from home using an algorithm I invented. That’s why I’m on the computer (and thus various forums) so darn much. I plan on being retired within 5-7 years or so.

Oh great. Another pimply-faced wanna-be day trading doofus who thinks he’s gonna retire in 5 years by punching a few keystrokes instead of actually working.
As if that wasn’t bad enough, you have the gall to call OTHER people lazy and stupid?
I hope you have a plan B. You’re gonna need it.

The stock market environment since March 09 has convinced several people that they are trading gurus.

I'd like to note that I feel prices now are about right in comparison with interest rates. If interest rates rise back to 8%, we'll see near 1998 prices.

But interest rates won't move. So we're stuck getting higher mortgages, and paying more property tax. There is no prospect of refinancing for a nice savings in the future in this market. It also renders your downpayment useless at these interest rates unless you're talking about 100's of thousands.

:)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUldGc06S3U

US Real Estate Home prices adjusted for inflation plotted as a roll.er coast.er

They don't need to confiscate it anymore.

Gold is rarely used these days, unlike during the GD when it was actually not unheard of to be seen in daily use. All they have to do is tax the hell out of it (ie. 90%) when sold and that would achieve a similar effect.

theoakman says

The stock market environment since March 09 has convinced several people that they are trading gurus

I knew lots of trading geniuses in the late 90's.

thunderlips11 says

theoakman says

thunderlips11 says

Can always take advantage of the market is US Treasuries though.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZB&p=d1

You are talking aout making a few %. This guy bought bonds with a 10% yield for 25 cents on the dollar. After they got bailed out, they were worth 100 cents on the dollar and still have their 10% yield. He instantly made 400% and collects is still getting 10 cents each year on the dollar.

Oh, I’m sure nobody is going to make Paulsson bank. But hey, guaranteed profit is profit!

Good threads. I think a lot of people miss the point. They aren't going to hyperinflate for some school theory about QE or Keynesian economics but simply because they have to to keep the bubble afloat. If you had a confederacy where you could dump all your losses then you'd be a rock star gambler. And get fat bonus checks to boot! That is what it is and why they have to continue to act to keep the bubble-o-nomics going. Keynes and QE and other folderol is just cover chat. Its the black hole for losses they really are after. You don't have to invest well when Uncle Sam guarantees profits.

MarkInSF says

theoakman says

The stock market environment since March 09 has convinced several people that they are trading gurus

I knew lots of trading geniuses in the late 90’s.

I got pretty much out of stocks 8 to 9 months ago when I incorrectly forecasted a rise in Natural Gas prices but still made 20% on all the plays I made on that forecast. Most traders I know would come up with some sort of explanation as to why they were right rather than simply admit they got lucky.

I don't know if I'm a bear or a bull. I trust one of the regulars to place me in the correct ecosystem.

So Geitner is just Ranger Smith?
And all then houses are de pick-a-nick baskets?

Generally when I think bull or bear I think people screaming 7000! or 14000!

There is also a group here, which believes we're recovering but there are going to be up's and down's from here but neither a major bull nor major bear market will be seen for at least a couple of years.

@Bap33 if you're not sure where you fit, I would then put you into the above category.

You're either SURE it's going to 7K or you're sure it's going to 14K or you're sure it's not going to do much..

ARMageddon has been deferred until further notice. Who said you can't get blood from a stone.

6. Come to terms with current home prices and realize that "Don't 1099 Me Bro" expires at the end of 2012.

I am sure ... without doubt ... that it is all going to slide down for as long as the bandaids make it take (maybe 4 months, maybe 3 years), and will remain at a true bottom for no less than 10 years. What does that make me?

Bap33 says

What does that make me

I would hope it makes you out of the market.

I guess if were talking just RE over the next 12 months, you can put me firmly in the bearish camp.

Long term, I think we're looking some similarities to Japan due to a fundamentally broken financial system, which has been papered over going on 2 years now, and not a single shred of political will evident to change that. This is not just another business cycle. We've got lots of advantages they don't have though, so it's not likely to drag on for decades.

The bottom in California will remain 2009.

Interesting bit from Barry Ritholtz's TBP re. the Appraisal Institute’s 16th Annual Summer Conference:

During the session, Bruce Norris (The Norris Group)-who is considered to be a top authority on the Southern California real estate market-shared some intriguing insights. He believes the region is in an artificial market and is concerned about the shadow inventory that could flood the market, forcing prices even lower. However, this isn’t the shadow inventory of bank-owned homes you may have heard about; he refers to all the houses that may yet go into foreclosure. The problem will vary by region, but referring to Riverside County in Southern California, Norris presented some pretty alarming statistics

• 23% of prime borrowers are not making payments

• 47% of non-prime borrowers are not making payments

• 90% of properties are upside down on value-to-loan (60% owe more than

150% of value)

Many borrowers haven’t made a payment in more than two years and have yet to receive a Notice of Default.

These numbers are frightening when considering the inventory that may come into the market in the next few years. Norris added that lenders and the federal government have slowed the foreclosure process to prevent a further deterioration of housing prices. But this artificial slowing of foreclosures belies the fact that there are still major waves of residential mortgage defaults on the horizon. It will be interesting to see if this policy plays out for the best or backfires and causes another flood of foreclosure properties into the market . . .

I'm a bear. I understand the basic premise of sentiment when it comes to investing. However, like every other investment indicator it is not 100% dependable. If it were we could all use it and become rich, which itself defies the very principle of sentiment- the minority can't make the majority rich. But I would say that many here aren't participants in the market, which is a prerequisit to be included in a sentiment calculation.
Therefore what is the true sentiment of the housing market? Investers? What do you think? I would guess currently, at least by the comments I've read here that by and large people are fairly positive in at least the not too distant future and beyond. Is this really negative sentiment and the investor class is full speed ahead? Or are these folks really small-time poseurs catching knives the banks are dropping on them? Ask yourselves why banks are not lending and guys like Bill Gross want the gov to guarantee all the bonds for housing. Doesn't exactly sound like confidence to me.

So you don't think that a Black community leader would be in the right to tell young black men, to leave those fat white women alone, all they want to do is get knocked up by as many partners as they can find. Then pin child support payments on them as well as collect government assistance.

Some how as a white guy, that wouldn't bother me one least bit. Something tells me, I don't think the media would say a word either.

But if a white person said the same thing to fat white women to leave those black guys alone....

Whoa brother we'd hear about it from every talking head from NY to CA.

There's not a race problem in America there's a free speech problem.

Everyone has it, but whites.

So don't listen to her, I DON"T or anyone like her.
I don't listen to radio talk show hosts period, unless they were the only thing on and I'm driving.
But I can still turn the dial if I don't like what is being said. And when that happens, it's the things being said that I don't like, not the talk show host as a person.
And there's no Moralism in Radio.

Bubbles will continue to deflate.

There is no such thing as free speech in the media when you have sponsors. Rule number one is to never offend ethnic groups because America if filled with ethnicities that are potential paying customers who fatten corporate bottom lines.
The real problem is we have a president who is only half black. We need a real black president, maybe a Zulu or something. Remember that Idi Amin guy? Now that's black with a vengeance. Alas, guys like Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson look uncomfortably hispanic in comparison. By jiminy, they even have freckles.

The next year is far too small of a sample. We're likely to see a bumpy ride of ups and downs, and data that doesn't make a lot of sense, with 1 quarter showing good results, and the next poor. Most likely it will be varying data sources which will create panic as if we're heading up fast, or heading down quickly.

Good bye to fetid festering rubbish! Good riddance, I say!

Now if only we could get rid of the fat slob addicted to oxy and the raving madman who converted to Mormonism, we'd clear the airwaves of a whole bunch of hate.

thunderlips11 says

And her employer/contracted party has the right to terminate her contract if they think her mouth is hurting their business, because she’s on their airwaves, on their time, on their dime. That’s free enterprise.

Yeah, and conservatives like free enterprise, so long as they're able to keep all the spoils. When it works against them, they rant, gnash their teeth, and demand corporate welfare and tax breaks from the gummint to save them. Now she's eligible for unemployment.

So wait, they drop her mortgage balance down to $480K, but then she has a $220K extra lien on the house that she doesn't have to pay on? Is that how it works?

Welcome to debt slavery! LOL! I would walk and take the credit hit.

mikey says

Bubbles will continue to deflate.

They'll inflate everything else up to make the housing bubble blend in. Their heavy duty printer can do wonders.

@E-man
Would you define slightly as being bear/bullish though? I would think that the slight nature you're talking about would neither net you income by either buying/selling real estate due to the costs and time involved in selling/buying a property. While an oscillation in stocks can make you money, due to the ability to buy/sell quickly with low overheads.

Thunderlips should be on this list too.

anyone know what happened to OTS and Bearmarket?

Bearmarket moved to Utah where he now practices Polygamy Abstinence.

thunderlips11 says

3:5 Bulls:Bears right now (counting vain and simchaland due to the 1 year out timeline).
Tom Wong, can I mark you down as a Bear?

IMHO, Its not really a bull/bear thing. If home prices rise, that would create a risk for jobs, both renters and homeowners.

$85 per month at 7% compounded will get you >220k in 40years
i.e. invest $85 in market index fund every month and you'll have your 220k ready for you when the 40years is up

And the forum was not full of right-wing goons and free-for-all thread privileges. Those were the days, I tell you :-).
Sniff.... I am getting all nostalgic. Perhaps we need to send out the bat signal and do an old school singe thread/blog for one day. Threads have really been wacky this past week. Sigh... there's always 1499 Gingerwood to bring back some of those old feelings...
Now, I am become Debt, the destroyer of wallets. -surfer-x

@repo4sale
Vacation

justme you raise a good point.

Brief Patrick.net history lesson (Patrick - feel free to correct me)

In the early days, Patrick posted threads (or posts or whatever they were called) on a given topic, and you could comment on them. I don't even think a password was required early on.

Most of the people commenting (Surfer-X, DINOR, DifferentSean, etc.)were all west coasters (San Fran, Silicon Valley, Oregon, etc.). Personally, I read most of their stuff, but didn't add my own two cents all that much, because I know little about the areas they were operating in.

Over time, the site grew and the scope stretched out beyond the west coast - about 2005 (?) Patrick added the first forum. With this addition, the topics got more varried and the "regular" posters cane and went.

The problem was there were "dueling" forums. Most of the "originals" stayed with commenting to Patrick or Harm's posts. Relative "Newcommers" such as myself were more apt to use the forum, which eventually was so spam infested ("water" posts, etc.) that Patrick solicited moderators, to which end I volunteered my services.

About 2006 (?), Patrick canned the "old" forum, (it was difficult to maintain from a code perspective) and came up with the current version, which has also grown in size and topic variety.

Patrick also had some great "side links" to his thoughts on non-housing matters that are no longer on the site "How to ask for a raise" "Armenians vs. Turks" etc.

As far as HOF goes, anyone I can think to nominate right now has already been mentioned.

Bearish. "hope for the best, but plan for the worst" is my motto. If anything, I believe that when all is said and done, things will not have gotten armageddonly bad- government (rightly or wrongly) will intervene.

I still stand by my prediction that the DOW to have a one day drop of 1000+ points this fall

Patrick posted that he was taking a couple of days off (says so on the links page). I'm guessing everything is okey dokey.

Bearmarket was one very odd guy. I saved one of his posts linking breast augmentation and suicide. it was long and wierd. I can post it for old time's sake. but the replies came from:

culady
Midwest Mrs.
OICU812 (funny guy)
Timcan
TPB (tot)
Bobby80
Techie