patrick.net

No, I am related to "Realismus"!

dunnross says

Ah Mr. Kevin, spouting your ludicrous ideas on this blog now! Wake up and smell the reality. The US is no longer the mega-power it once was,

In what sense? Is there some other country with a larger GDP already? Some country with a stronger military? No? Ok.

and it is loosing that 1st world status just as we speak.

Oh, yeah, the US isn't a 1st world country anymore. Largest economy on the planet, the only country with a population over 100M with a high standard of living. Yep, we're going to be exactly like Mexico pretty soon.

There is no company in the US today, which is as big or bigger than companies in our nations like Brazil or China or India, for that matter.

I'm not sure how to parse this (is English not your primary language?) You're either saying:

- There is no company in the US that is as big or bigger than companies in Brazil, China, or India, which is simply false. 400 of the 500 largest companies in the world are American.

- There is no single company in the US that is larger than than the entire economy of Brazil, India, and China. That's true, though both Wal-Mart and Exxon come pretty close to the GDP of Brazil.

I'm not really sure what that has to do with anything though.

There is only one thing , which is still great about this country, though, and which is why I am here to stay. The price of real-estate is soon to be the cheapest of any other country in the world with a population of over 100M! And that you can take to the bank!

Just so we're clear:

You're claiming that US real estate is going to be cheaper than real estate in India, China, and various third world shitholes, and yet you'd want to stay here? Have you ever even been to any of those countries?

This is more of a troll than your "real estate will fall to 1975 levels" claim. Keep it up.

Kevin says

dunnross says

Ah Mr. Kevin, spouting your ludicrous ideas on this blog now! Wake up and smell the reality. The US is no longer the mega-power it once was,

In what sense? Is there some other country with a larger GDP already? Some country with a stronger military? No? Ok.

and it is loosing that 1st world status just as we speak.

Oh, yeah, the US isn’t a 1st world country anymore. Largest economy on the planet, the only country with a population over 100M with a high standard of living. Yep, we’re going to be exactly like Mexico pretty soon.

There is no company in the US today, which is as big or bigger than companies in our nations like Brazil or China or India, for that matter.

I’m not sure how to parse this (is English not your primary language?) You’re either saying:
- There is no company in the US that is as big or bigger than companies in Brazil, China, or India, which is simply false. 400 of the 500 largest companies in the world are American.
- There is no single company in the US that is larger than than the entire economy of Brazil, India, and China. That’s true, though both Wal-Mart and Exxon come pretty close to the GDP of Brazil.
I’m not really sure what that has to do with anything though.

There is only one thing , which is still great about this country, though, and which is why I am here to stay. The price of real-estate is soon to be the cheapest of any other country in the world with a population of over 100M! And that you can take to the bank!

Just so we’re clear:
You’re claiming that US real estate is going to be cheaper than real estate in India, China, and various third world shitholes, and yet you’d want to stay here? Have you ever even been to any of those countries?
This is more of a troll than your “real estate will fall to 1975 levels” claim. Keep it up.

Mr. Kevin,

English must not be your primary language, because you don't even read what other people have written. I told you, before that I just came from New Delhi 2 weeks ago, and then you ask if I've been to other countries. Also, you like to contradict yourself, a lot, like in:

"English is not your primary language" and "Have you ever even been to any of those countries?"

Now as far as US RE being cheaper, it is already cheaper than China, and not to mention Europe, South America and many other places in the world, to which I have been.

Now, what I meant to say is that other countries in the world like Brazil and India already have corporations which are on the same scale, or bigger than the biggest companies in the US. I think that is quite difficult for somebody as myopic as yourself to comprehend, but that is reality. For example Petrobras, Brazil, recently raised $70B through a secondary offering, more than any American company in history ever received.

Your gonna find much of the economic/corporate data from China and South America politicaly driven by governments and highly inflated using different methods and accounting standards, not to mention not as transparent as their US counterpart. Corruption is way of life in those nations.

Oh yes, we already know about the transparency of these US banks who are hiding all their losses, not to mention Enron, World Com, and many others. How about CTO's of many of silicon valley companies back-dating their stock options. In fact, even the biggest silicon valley companies of today, have off-shore accounts which they don't make known to their stock holders.

dunnross says

Now, what I meant to say is that other countries in the world like Brazil and India already have corporations which are on the same scale, or bigger than the biggest companies in the US.

The largest corporation in the world is Wal Mart with gross revenue of 413 billion followed by Exxon Mobil at 310 billion. The biggest company in Brazil with revenue 91 billion is the only company in Brazil to make the top 250 corporations, the biggest company in India is Tata Group revenue 72 billion followed by India Oil at 52 billion the only two companies in India to make the top 250. Over 90% the companies on the top 250 are headquartered in America or Europe. Myopic or not it just ain't so joe.

Here is a list of the 10 biggest companies in the world. Only 2 out of 10 is in the US:

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/global500/2010/

dunnross says

Now as far as US RE being cheaper, it is already cheaper than China, and not to mention Europe, South America and many other places in the world, to which I have been.

No, it isn't.

Let me guess, you saw that there are apartments in Hong Kong and Bangalore that are more expensive than houses in Detroit and decided that housing in China and India is more expensive than in the US?

Hey, there are apartments in Seattle that cost more than apartments in Tokyo. Tokyo must have cheaper real estate prices than Seattle!

dunnross says

Now, what I meant to say is that other countries in the world like Brazil and India already have corporations which are on the same scale, or bigger than the biggest companies in the US. I think that is quite difficult for somebody as myopic as yourself to comprehend, but that is reality. For example Petrobras, Brazil, recently raised $70B through a secondary offering, more than any American company in history ever received.

Brazil has 7 companies i the global 500.
India has 8.
China, the second largest economy in the world, and light year ahead of both brazil and India, only has 46.

Want to keep making this argument? Really?

The US has GDP that is 12x India, 10x brazil, and 5x china. It's not even fucking close.

dunnross says

Here is a list of the 10 biggest companies in the world. Only 2 out of 10 is in the US:
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/global500/2010/

And zero are indian, zero are brazilian, three are chinese (all state-owned oil companies, essentially the same company).

Are you trolling, or just ignorant? Take a look at the numbers for the whole 500. No country comes close to the US.

Lets list your completely false claims from this one thread:

- Housing is cheaper in the US than it is in China
- Brazil, India, and China have the largest companies in the world

False information that you use to support these projections:
- America is on the verge of becoming a third world country
- American housing prices will fall 80%

And yet you apparently think that it would be a good idea to live in a third world country with massive debt problems that it can't possibly afford to pay off.

Truly bizarre.

dunnross says

Oh yes, we already know about the transparency of these US banks who are hiding all their losses, not to mention Enron, World Com, and many others. How about CTO’s of many of silicon valley companies back-dating their stock options. In fact, even the biggest silicon valley companies of today, have off-shore accounts which they don’t make known to their stock holders.

What hidden losses ? How are they hiding 90+ day late payments. Like it or not they are written off against earnings every quarter. If the companies didnt, the auditor would have forced the issue.

Enron, Worldcom... what does that say about the 10,000s of other public companies. Wanna pick another 2-3 out of your ass? Are you saying they are all equally crooked ?

Backdating ? ... ask the idiots who came to SV from the East Coast with their Ivy League degrees after 2000 who were too greedy to take a standard salaries and wanted "special attention". Did you even see backdating back in the 80s and 90s in SV before the tech boom? No! And many companies didnt have back dating more recently anyway.

Every bank account offshore is disclosed and audited by US auditors and foreign auditors who tax foreign sub earnings. How the frack do you pay your overseas people with anyway? You have to be an idiot to believe in that left wing crap. There are so many checks and balances regarding transfers of cash in and out of the US. Only Demo party puppets keep taking about these things.

Every foreign or domestic subsidairy of a US corporation is disclosed in the SEC filings, and each one has bank account they use for their operations. How difficult is that to understand ?

Kevin says

dunnross says

Now as far as US RE being cheaper, it is already cheaper than China, and not to mention Europe, South America and many other places in the world, to which I have been.

No, it isn’t.
Let me guess, you saw that there are apartments in Hong Kong and Bangalore that are more expensive than houses in Detroit and decided that housing in China and India is more expensive than in the US?
Hey, there are apartments in Seattle that cost more than apartments in Tokyo. Tokyo must have cheaper real estate prices than Seattle!
dunnross says

Now, what I meant to say is that other countries in the world like Brazil and India already have corporations which are on the same scale, or bigger than the biggest companies in the US. I think that is quite difficult for somebody as myopic as yourself to comprehend, but that is reality. For example Petrobras, Brazil, recently raised $70B through a secondary offering, more than any American company in history ever received.

Brazil has 7 companies i the global 500.

India has 8.

China, the second largest economy in the world, and light year ahead of both brazil and India, only has 46.
Want to keep making this argument? Really?
The US has GDP that is 12x India, 10x brazil, and 5x china. It’s not even fucking close.
dunnross says

Here is a list of the 10 biggest companies in the world. Only 2 out of 10 is in the US:

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/global500/2010/

And zero are indian, zero are brazilian, three are chinese (all state-owned oil companies, essentially the same company).
Are you trolling, or just ignorant? Take a look at the numbers for the whole 500. No country comes close to the US.
Lets list your completely false claims from this one thread:
- Housing is cheaper in the US than it is in China

- Brazil, India, and China have the largest companies in the world
False information that you use to support these projections:

- America is on the verge of becoming a third world country

- American housing prices will fall 80%
And yet you apparently think that it would be a good idea to live in a third world country with massive debt problems that it can’t possibly afford to pay off.
Truly bizarre.

Well, here you are cherry picking again. Let's even the score, here:

1. House prices in Beijing and Shanghai are now higher than prices in most large American cities, not just Detroit. You can currently find reasonably priced houses (close to the 80-90's prices) in a lot of 2nd rank US cities like Las Vegas & Miami, which is much cheaper than anything you can buy in Europe, China or even some places in South America.

2. I never said America is going to be like in the "Mad Max" movie, and falling to the 75 level, doesn't mean that there will be Nukes all over the place - that's your assumption, not mine. There are many cities in the US which are at 75 or close to 75 level already, and they still have McDonalds and Wall Mart, and there are no motorcycle-driving cavemen anywhere in sight.

3. America house prices falling 80% is also your own assumption, I never said that either. What I said, is 75 level, because 75 is where this bubble started, and some cities are already there.

4. I never said that we are on the verge of becoming a 3rd world country. I did say that we are losing super-power status and losing our economic edge to other nations like China, but this is another example, where you exaggerate my words, you take them to an extreme, and then you try to argue with me based on your own words, not mine.

As far as living here, yes it would be a great idea. UK is no longer the British Empire that it used to be, but, it's still not a bad place to live. So will the US, but it will have much cheaper RE, because it has lots of land, and it's not as crowded as China and Europe, and this is what always attracted people here, until the last 30 years, when greedy people started speculating on RE and drove the prices up.

dunnross says

What I said, is 75 level, because 75 is where this bubble started, and some cities are already there.

Skip Bush, Skip Clinton, Skip Reagan and Carter..... so lets bash Ford! Oh thats good!
1975 ? you can pretty much blame the Unions for that one !

dunnross says

1. House prices in Beijing and Shanghai are now higher than prices in most large American cities, not just Detroit.

Some properties in some areas of Beijing and Shanghai are more expensive than prices in some american cities, yes. On average though, it's still much cheaper to buy property there (though, of course, what you get for a "house" is debatable...)

You can currently find reasonably priced houses (close to the 80-90’s prices) in a lot of 2nd rank US cities like Las Vegas & Miami, which is much cheaper than anything you can buy in Europe, China or even some places in South America.

Cheaper than some parts of Europe, some parts of China, and, yes, some parts of South America. Cheaper than some places in Africa, too.

OH MY GOD, THIS HAS BEEN TRUE FOR HUNDREDS OF YEARS. Why didn't anyone tell me?

Still, not even close to your original claim. Way to redefine!

dunnross says

2. I never said America is going to be like in the “Mad Max” movie, and falling to the 75 level, doesn’t mean that there will be Nukes all over the place - that’s your assumption, not mine. There are many cities in the US which are at 75 or close to 75 level already, and they still have McDonalds and Wall Mart, and there are no motorcycle-driving cavemen anywhere in sight.

There are a tiny number of places where the entire local economy collapsed to a level *WELL BELOW THAT OF 1975*.

Again, not going to happen on the whole. If it did, you *would* see mad max style desolation. Ever been to Africa?

dunnross says

3. America house prices falling 80% is also your own assumption, I never said that either. What I said, is 75 level, because 75 is where this bubble started, and some cities are already there.

Jesus fucking Christ on a pogo stick. TO REACH 1975 LEVELS We WOULD HAVE TO LOSE 80% OF CURRENT VALUE.

Median house price in 1975: $39,000
Median house price right now: $180,000

39,000 is 21% of 180,000. That's a 79% decrease.

dunnross says

4. I never said that we are on the verge of becoming a 3rd world country. I did say that we are losing super-power status and losing our economic edge to other nations like China, but this is another example, where you exaggerate my words, you take them to an extreme, and then you try to argue with me based on your own words, not mine.

I said that we'd be a third world country if the 80% devaluation scenerio came about, because it would. But that won't ever happen, which is why it's a crazy proposition.

What you *did* say, in this thread and the other, is that China, India, and Brazil have the biggest companies in the world, and that America isn't going to be a "first world" country anymore. A "first world" country like the UK, or France, or Germany, or Japan.

All absolutely ridiculous and false claims.

A rational claim might go something like this:

"In a few decades, the United States will no longer be the country with the highest GDP in the world"

...and that means very little. The "super power" argument is absurd, and was only ever true for a very brief period in the early 90s. The EU, Japan, and China are "super powers" in an economic sense, and have been for a decade.

But back to your original claim. You said that 100% of home owners are going to be underwater because prices are going back to 1975 levels, an eighty percent decrease from where we are today. It's an absurd claim, and it occurs to me that you finally realize how absurd a claim it is, but are trying to find a way to not sound like a complete idiot.

Kevin says

dunnross says

1. House prices in Beijing and Shanghai are now higher than prices in most large American cities, not just Detroit.

Some properties in some areas of Beijing and Shanghai are more expensive than prices in some american cities, yes. On average though, it’s still much cheaper to buy property there (though, of course, what you get for a “house” is debatable…)

You can currently find reasonably priced houses (close to the 80-90’s prices) in a lot of 2nd rank US cities like Las Vegas & Miami, which is much cheaper than anything you can buy in Europe, China or even some places in South America.

Cheaper than some parts of Europe, some parts of China, and, yes, some parts of South America. Cheaper than some places in Africa, too.
OH MY GOD, THIS HAS BEEN TRUE FOR HUNDREDS OF YEARS. Why didn’t anyone tell me?
Still, not even close to your original claim. Way to redefine!
dunnross says

2. I never said America is going to be like in the “Mad Max” movie, and falling to the 75 level, doesn’t mean that there will be Nukes all over the place - that’s your assumption, not mine. There are many cities in the US which are at 75 or close to 75 level already, and they still have McDonalds and Wall Mart, and there are no motorcycle-driving cavemen anywhere in sight.

There are a tiny number of places where the entire local economy collapsed to a level *WELL BELOW THAT OF 1975*.
Again, not going to happen on the whole. If it did, you *would* see mad max style desolation. Ever been to Africa?
dunnross says

3. America house prices falling 80% is also your own assumption, I never said that either. What I said, is 75 level, because 75 is where this bubble started, and some cities are already there.

Jesus fucking Christ on a pogo stick. TO REACH 1975 LEVELS We WOULD HAVE TO LOSE 80% OF CURRENT VALUE.
Median house price in 1975: $39,000

Median house price right now: $180,000
39,000 is 21% of 180,000. That’s a 79% decrease.
dunnross says

4. I never said that we are on the verge of becoming a 3rd world country. I did say that we are losing super-power status and losing our economic edge to other nations like China, but this is another example, where you exaggerate my words, you take them to an extreme, and then you try to argue with me based on your own words, not mine.

I said that we’d be a third world country if the 80% devaluation scenerio came about, because it would. But that won’t ever happen, which is why it’s a crazy proposition.
What you *did* say, in this thread and the other, is that China, India, and Brazil have the biggest companies in the world, and that America isn’t going to be a “first world” country anymore. A “first world” country like the UK, or France, or Germany, or Japan.
All absolutely ridiculous and false claims.
A rational claim might go something like this:
“In a few decades, the United States will no longer be the country with the highest GDP in the world”
…and that means very little. The “super power” argument is absurd, and was only ever true for a very brief period in the early 90s. The EU, Japan, and China are “super powers” in an economic sense, and have been for a decade.
But back to your original claim. You said that 100% of home owners are going to be underwater because prices are going back to 1975 levels, an eighty percent decrease from where we are today. It’s an absurd claim, and it occurs to me that you finally realize how absurd a claim it is, but are trying to find a way to not sound like a complete idiot.

You see Mr. Kevin, you argument for prices not falling to 1975 level is based on a rational idea that prices going to 1975 levels by 2015 or 2020, cannot be supported by any fundamental valuation principles, based on population growth, GDP, etc. But prices of 2005 could not be supported by any fundamental formulas, as well, it was simply the force propelled by greed which drove the prices higher and higher. So, my argument, that 1975, although fundamentally unfeasible, can be a remote possibility, given that the fear factor in humans, is even a stronger driver than greed. This is exactly why all bubbles deflate below the upward moving trend-line, they overshoot on the way down, and this bubble will, most likely, overshoot like no other bubble ever did, just because its extent on the upward moving trajectory was so gigantic.

thomas.wong1986 says

dunnross says

Oh yes, we already know about the transparency of these US banks who are hiding all their losses, not to mention Enron, World Com, and many others. How about CTO’s of many of silicon valley companies back-dating their stock options. In fact, even the biggest silicon valley companies of today, have off-shore accounts which they don’t make known to their stock holders.

What hidden losses ? How are they hiding 90+ day late payments. Like it or not they are written off against earnings every quarter. If the companies didnt, the auditor would have forced the issue.

the FASB's suspension of mark to market accounting rules... Millions of non-performing assets are 'performing'. Losses are ignored, values are severely inflated. You really think hundreds of thousands of mortgages that have not been paid in 180+ days haven't had NOD's filed because they are simply backlogged? Yeah right!!

Jeremy says

the FASB’s suspension of mark to market accounting rules… Millions of non-performing assets are ‘performing’. Losses are ignored, values are severely inflated. You really think hundreds of thousands of mortgages that have not been paid in 180+ days haven’t had NOD’s filed because they are simply backlogged? Yeah right!!

Mark to Market on "certain tradeable investment" securities, not loan or customer receivables. They are two different animals. Many other investment securities are still marked to market. The Banks Accounts Receivables like any other corporate receivable (Intel, Apple, GE, etc etc) are written down after 90+ days. Regardless of if NOD is filed or not the loan itself written off. To state otherwise would inflate the balance sheet. This hasnt changed!

thomas.wong1986 says

Jeremy says

the FASB’s suspension of mark to market accounting rules… Millions of non-performing assets are ‘performing’. Losses are ignored, values are severely inflated. You really think hundreds of thousands of mortgages that have not been paid in 180+ days haven’t had NOD’s filed because they are simply backlogged? Yeah right!!

Mark to Market on “certain tradeable investment” securities, not loan or customer receivables. They are two different animals. Many other investment securities are still marked to market. The Banks Accounts Receivables like any other corporate receivable (Intel, Apple, GE, etc etc) are written down after 90+ days. Regardless of if NOD is filed or not the loan itself written off. To state otherwise would inflate the balance sheet. This hasnt changed!

Well, I don't know much I guess. I can admit that. But I'm really curious how so many 'homeowners' can live in their house mortgage free. It's rampant. It's around 30% of all mortgage holders I know. Just a small sample size, but even if its only 15%, wouldn't every major lender be insolvent??

Jeremy says

thomas.wong1986 says

Jeremy says

the FASB’s suspension of mark to market accounting rules… Millions of non-performing assets are ‘performing’. Losses are ignored, values are severely inflated. You really think hundreds of thousands of mortgages that have not been paid in 180+ days haven’t had NOD’s filed because they are simply backlogged? Yeah right!!

Mark to Market on “certain tradeable investment” securities, not loan or customer receivables. They are two different animals. Many other investment securities are still marked to market. The Banks Accounts Receivables like any other corporate receivable (Intel, Apple, GE, etc etc) are written down after 90+ days. Regardless of if NOD is filed or not the loan itself written off. To state otherwise would inflate the balance sheet. This hasnt changed!

Well, I don’t know much I guess. I can admit that. But I’m really curious how so many ‘homeowners’ can live in their house mortgage free. It’s rampant. It’s around 30% of all mortgage holders I know. Just a small sample size, but even if its only 15%, wouldn’t every major lender be insolvent??

Jeremy, your observation is correct. They are all insolvent because they were leveraged 30x1 prior to the crash, so they could only sustain a 3% default rate, which is not even remotely close to the 15 or 30. But, because of the mark-to-market rule, the gov-t is letting these banks stay in operation, and continue gambling with tax-payers money. So, the new bubble is the shadow inventory bubble, which the banks are hiding from the MLS. When that ultimate bubble is eventually pricked, it will blow up so hard, that the 2008 recession will just seem like a child's play, in comparison. That's exactly why I am saying that prices are going back to 1975. Not because I am expecting a sane and orderly deflation. No, it would have been sane and orderly, if the gov-t didn't get involved, but with all these gov-t manipulation in the free markets, there will be time to pay the piper.

dunnross says

You see Mr. Kevin, you argument for prices not falling to 1975 level is based on a rational idea that prices going to 1975 levels by 2015 or 2020, cannot be supported by any fundamental valuation principles, based on population growth, GDP, etc. But prices of 2005 could not be supported by any fundamental formulas, as well, it was simply the force propelled by greed which drove the prices higher and higher. So, my argument, that 1975, although fundamentally unfeasible, can be a remote possibility, given that the fear factor in humans, is even a stronger driver than greed. This is exactly why all bubbles deflate below the upward moving trend-line, they overshoot on the way down, and this bubble will, most likely, overshoot like no other bubble ever did, just because its extent on the upward moving trajectory was so gigantic.

Whatever you say man. Call me in 2020 and let me know how the apocalypse is going.

Jeremy says

It’s rampant. It’s around 30% of all mortgage holders I know. Just a small sample size, but even if its only 15%, wouldn’t every major lender be insolvent??

Well they can live there forever, just visit Nancy Pelosi office and have a crying session on her desk telling her greedy Banks fooled you into buying, etc etc. Its up to State and Federal Govt who are drag this out! Govt keeps this up, many will think this will be the norm when they buy their first home and cant afford it.

We'll see 15%+ rates within 3-5 years. The inflation is going to get out of hand very very soon. Watch out for the bond bubble to burst which will send rates skyrocketing to the moon. I have warned everyone on this forum that home prices are doomed to collapse beyond anyone's imagination. Just wait and see guys.

Robert Shiller says

We’ll see 15%+ rates within 3-5 years. The inflation is going to get out of hand very very soon. Watch out for the bond bubble to burst which will send rates skyrocketing to the moon. I have warned everyone on this forum that home prices are doomed to collapse beyond anyone’s imagination. Just wait and see guys.

Inflation is going to get out of hand and yet house prices will go in the opposite direction?

Tell me, oh wise one, on what planet such a scenario would ever make any sense whatsoever?

Because, you know, housing prices were just falling off a cliff the last time we had 15% interest rates. Yes, indeed.

You people make no sense whatsoever.

Interest rates will go to 15%, once inflation starts to pick up.

But interest rates are a *response to* high inflation. A way to put it under control.

Right now the fed would desperately like to have inflation. Why do you think everyone is pushing so hard for quantitative easing domestically and trying to get China to let their currency appreciate?

Inflation would save the housing market. All of those people who are on the verge of foreclosure would suddenly find their debts erased, and they had no savings to lose anyway. Their lives would get better.

I'll take bets with anyone dumb enough to argue that the economy is going to have massive inflation without both of the following:

- House prices increasing
- Wages increasing

I'll also take bets with anyone dumb enough to argue that national housing prices are going to crash by a large amount (more than 20%) from present values without both of the following happening:

- Massive deflation
- Total societal collapse

Anyone care to wager?

Greece. BOOOYAHHH!!!
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Greece/Price-History

You live in fantasy land so I'm sure you bought a home recently.

Again, what drives home prices are JOBS. No jobs, no home price increases. Inflation can't make wages rise when unemployment exceeds 25% like it did during the Great Depression.

On the casino comment - I've dreamed of making that one options play that would make me a 10x return on investment. I've probably had a 20% in-the-money success rate, but overall have come out 2x ahead on investment. Not bad...but it is gambling no doubt.

I am invested in gold, but after reading these comments - am thinking of swapping it for silver. That seems to be the better play.

Blasphemy! I will find one and get back to you.

globe33 says

On the casino comment - I’ve dreamed of making that one options play that would make me a 10x return on investment. I’ve probably had a 20% in-the-money success rate, but overall have come out 2x ahead on investment. Not bad…but it is gambling no doubt.
I am invested in gold, but after reading these comments - am thinking of swapping it for silver. That seems to be the better play.

If you want to make 10x return on your investment, simply get some good junior mining shares. If gold bubbles, these things will explode through the roof.

Too many people waiting for it to go "parabolic" for it to do so.

That's what caught my eye in an article Patrick linked to: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/three-horrifying-facts-about-us-debt-%E2%80%9Csituation%E2%80%9D?source=patrick.net#inner-content

… either that or experience hyperinflation. There is simply no other option. We can NEVER pay off our debts. To do so would require every US family to pay $31,000 a year for 75 years.

RE @ 4.5% is looking good right now. It is an asset that will grow inflation-indexed.

I think the "something else nasty" explanation is correct, because salaries are not rising.

Deflation Nation:
The government is expected to announce this week that more than 58 million Social Security recipients will go through a second straight year without an increase in monthly benefits. This year was the first without an increase since automatic adjustments for inflation started in 1975.

"something nasty" translates to me as stagflation. Google is planning on releasing another index that is more in line with inflation statistics. That should be interesting being that, IMO, statistics provided by the government are almost always tainted.

How about biflation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biflation

Yes, that Wikipedia description of "biflation" seems to apply to the current situation.

Wage inflation is inevitable. It won't track price inflation, but it'll be there. Just wait.

Silver has been crushing gold, ratio down to under 58:1 from 66:1 just a few months ago. I'm looking to get out of the silver and into a jr miner or two, any reccomendations?

What's the guy from Western Silver doing these days, thomas patton?

rileybryan says

As patrick says, its better to have low principle and high interest to avoid becoming a debt slave.

Well, if you had that choice, that would be true. But in reality your choice is to buy now with low interest rates or wait a long time until those rates are higher. Now figure the cost of paying 2k rent for 5 years = 120k. It's hard to imagine houses being 120k cheaper in 5 years, especially if interest rates are rising suggesting an improving economy. Not to mention the frustration of basing *your* life on macro-economic theory i.e. making your own decisions based on the macro economy sounds like a case of "life is what happens while you make other plans"

It isn't tied to any "recovery." That's nonsense. A clear look at the graphs indicates this most recent meteoric rise began in August/September after the Fed had indicated that a second round of quantitative easing may be required to prop up the impotent "recovery." That moved speculators into hard assets, ag commodities, gold and silver, copper, etc. It's just inflationary positioning - perfectly logical.

Price increases at the gas station and grocery store will just weaken the economy that much further. This is DEFLATIONARY for housing, especially in suburban areas where the cost of oil has a significant impact on family budgets.

Since we've been talking about Argentina lately, let's examine what happened to their real estate market upon devaluation of the peso argentino.

IT COLLAPSED. All bank lending completely seized (nobody is going to loan money that, once paid back in the future, is worth significantly less).

Real estate prices in Argentina (as well as Iceland where another devaluation just happened a couple of years ago during the bust) are still FAR BELOW their pre-devaluation levels.

rileybryan says

Not planning for the macro-economy is REALLY working for those people who bought in ‘06
At least they didn’t let that macroeconomic bully tell them what to do though.

Well, I think the point is not to go entirely by macro-economic theory, but to mainly consider your own personal micro-economic situation.

Most of those who bought between 2002-2007 ignored both.

I have to say that back in 2003-2004 when we were shopping I decided not to buy because I did the simple math calculation of income vs 30 year fixed mortgage payment vs rental rates. No one had to know a damn thing about economics or macro-economic theory, people just had to do simple arithmetic!

rileybryan says

Not planning for the macro-economy is REALLY working for those people who bought in ‘06

Funny that you say that because on a micro-economic scale it worked out nicely for me ;)