patrick.net

Both China and India can be thought of to have two separate economies, their peasantry and their competitive economies.

The hundreds of millions of peasantry in both countries are rather irrelevant in the scheme of things, while their middle class and above will provide new export markets for our stuff.

I think in the long run we need to be less concerned about stimulating consumption here at home and more focused on stimulating exports to Chindia.

India's unchecked birthrate is going to be the death of the country though as poverty in the countryside and overcrowding in the cities just pummel efficiency.

China is actually going to start a demographic decline soon. Right now their age 20-24 population numbers 120M, but by 2050 this will fall to 70M.

To compete with China will require the yuan to fall from the 6.7 it is today to parity, since Chinese wages are still $15/day or thereabouts while our average wage is approaching $20/hr.

If this happens we will be able to export a lot more to China. Unfortunately, this also means they will be able to BUY a lot more of our stuff than they can now. This will introduce supply shocks into our own system, especially oil, since China increasing their oil consumption 7X is just not something that can be done without the price of gas moving to $20/gallon or so.

I hate the use of the word 'peasantry'. I thought that went out the window in the middle ages or when the British stopped making shitty vampire films.

The short comings of our Democracy is, we've had Congressional sessions after session, either ignoring, reinterpreting, and repealing the very parts of "Our" Democratic system that Actually worked. Those Old Geezers many decades ago, knew EXACTLY, what an untethered Corporation, Bank, and Stock Market, are capable of.

People like Stalin, Lenin, Castro and the like just aren't possible in a fair and productive society.
These people loathed Capitalism for reason enough they got whole countries of disillusioned peasants behind them.

We had it tweaked right, but it was unraveled and has turned into this middle class consuming Beast. US as a World power depends on the middle class.
The super rich has no allegiance to Americas economic prosperity, and the poor feel to disconnected to matter in what our economic and foreign policies are.

shrekgrinch says

This is all overblown. I remember in the late 80s and early 90s how everyone was freaking out about Japan taking over the world, too.
What a pantload that turned out to be.

China has a population that is 10 times bigger than Japan. China went from being a non entity in the global economic world to being the 2nd largest economy on earth in less than 30 years despite the fact there was virtually no college level education in China from the 50's to 1980 with the cultural revolution I would be a little more concerned about any country that could make up ground that fast if I were you.

shrekgrinch says

This is all overblown. I remember in the late 80s and early 90s how everyone was freaking out about Japan taking over the world, too.

You mean late 80's. Gung Ho (1986) was symbolic of this stupid time.

The GOP admiration for China is fascinating to me. So blinkered to the bootstrapiness, they can ignore that whole enslaving Communist dictatorship thing. Communism is OK when it profits you personally, and if it's conveniently across an ocean. If Obama did .0001% of what the Chinese do routinely, there'd be civil war. I think ultimately the Cold War was about too much saber-rattling and not enough palm greasing. If Kruschev had cut back on building nukes and concentrated on enslaving the Balkans to sell cheap shoes to Americans things would have been very different.

Yes here's the China we know and love:

China sentences woman to labor camp for Twitter post

bob2356 says

China has a population that is 10 times bigger than Japan. China went from being a non entity in the global economic world to being the 2nd largest economy on earth in less than 30 years despite the fact there was virtually no college level education in China from the 50’s to 1980 with the cultural revolution I would be a little more concerned about any country that could make up ground that fast if I were you.

Japan has NO NATURAL RESOURCES. It is a tiny strip of land around unusable mountains. Japan achieved phenomenal growth despite this severe handicap. China has FAR more natural resources.

China's ground that it made up comes from 100% economic espionage, both legal and illegal. China hasn't innovated since they used gunpowder for fireworks.

All this China crap is overblown. You don't see American government "minders" taking foreign press on tours of Silicon Valley and Times Square to tout the superiority of American industry.

China's growth will do nothing to affect the average American, other than change the "Made In" tags from "China" to "Vietnam" or "Botswanna" at some point.

Gas prices will go up, no doubt. But Americans will innovate new energy sources to adapt to the limitation in oil resources.

I don't understand why so many people fear this change? Billionaires live a life I couldn't dream about in my wildest imagination, but I wouldn't switch places in a million years if I lost my freedoms. At some point, the Chinese will decide if they want to purchase FREEDOM. That's when things will get interesting.

Vicente says

Yes here’s the China we know and love:
China sentences woman to labor camp for Twitter post

She should be glad she didn't go on the OReily show. Or NPR wouldn't bother with her noon day eulogy, when that day comes.

Vicente says

Yes here’s the China we know and love:

Well, she did twitter to encourage a bona-fide bomb-throwing terrorist act at an international fair site.

Book'm Danno.

SoCal Renter says

the Chinese will decide if they want to purchase FREEDOM

The urban Chinese are not any less free than we are.

Democratically determining who runs government at all levels is not a core freedom. That is just an instrumentality.

The freedom is what actually obtains on the ground. Freedom from graft and other economic coercion. Freedom of expression and association.

China’s growth will do nothing to affect the average American, other than change the “Made In” tags from “China” to “Vietnam” or “Botswanna” at some point.

Dunno. Eventually the world will have to support another 500 million people who desire entry in the middle class "American" lifestyle. There's no guarantee we'll be able to create the energy or source the raw materials we need to support this growth of the middle class, and if we can't then our national position at the top of the heap will be under pressure.

The past 100 years has featured increasing production & declining costs in many commodities. This looks to be reversing in metals, energy, food, etc.

The urban Chinese are not any less free than we are.
Which ones are you referring to:
1. The ones legally in the cities, or
2. The ones who are supposed to be in the countryside.
Freedom of movement is such fundamental value that it's shocking to see that the Chinese don't have that. On the other hand, you could argue they do, and that the Hukou system is just a technicality.

kentm says

I hate the use of the word ‘peasantry’. I thought that went out the window in the middle ages or when the British stopped making shitty vampire films.

Hate it or not, is there something inaccurate about the context in which Troy used it?

shrekgrinch says

The US Navy has achieved what the British Navy of the 19th century only CLAIMED to have achieved: total dominance of all the world’s seas. If you combine all the nations’ naval assets together, the US Navy still comes out on top.
And when push does finally comes to shove on any resource wars, military force projection..particularly naval power..will be the dominant determinant of that outcome.
The Navy can shut down all traffic in both the straights of Sumatra, Malacca and Hormuz at the same time if it were ordered to do so. It could maintain those blockades despite taking heavy fire as well.

Indeed, and the Chinese know all about this, and are deeply concerned about US threat over their "sea lines of communication." The Naval War College Review has frequent articles on the matter. Our position of strength now is not a guarantee that it will remain so.

Vicente says

The GOP admiration for China is fascinating to me.

See how that works, Shrek? Make a comment simply stating that you disagree with a particular theory of a particular threat, and it is translated into "admiration for China" and it's not just you, but the entire "GOP." The fact that Vicente uses such hasty generalizations so often is one of the several reasons that I do not believe his claim that he was ever a "staunch [conservative or Republican]" (Using the word "staunch" might be another givaway)...

Tenouncetrout says

The short comings of our Democracy is, we’ve had Congressional sessions after session, either ignoring, reinterpreting, and repealing the very parts of “Our” Democratic system that Actually worked. Those Old Geezers many decades ago, knew EXACTLY, what an untethered Corporation, Bank, and Stock Market, are capable of.
People like Stalin, Lenin, Castro and the like just aren’t possible in a fair and productive society.
These people loathed Capitalism for reason enough they got whole countries of disillusioned peasants behind them.
We had it tweaked right, but it was unraveled and has turned into this middle class consuming Beast. US as a World power depends on the middle class.
The super rich has no allegiance to Americas economic prosperity, and the poor feel to disconnected to matter in what our economic and foreign policies are.

Here, Here....are you a wealth redistributionist or simply pro-middle class?

shrekgrinch says

SoCal Renter says

Gas prices will go up, no doubt. But Americans will innovate new energy sources to adapt to the limitation in oil resources.

Hehehe…not if the US Navy is called in to force oil tankers bound for China to go to the US.
The US Navy has achieved what the British Navy of the 19th century only CLAIMED to have achieved: total dominance of all the world’s seas. If you combine all the nations’ naval assets together, the US Navy still comes out on top.
And when push does finally comes to shove on any resource wars, military force projection..particularly naval power..will be the dominant determinant of that outcome.
The Navy can shut down all traffic in both the straights of Sumatra, Malacca and Hormuz at the same time if it were ordered to do so. It could maintain those blockades despite taking heavy fire as well.
So, some examples: If China invades Taiwan or dumps our Treasuries on the open market en masse, that is what will very well happen to them. China is already import-reliant on food now. Oil and industrial materials too. China Inc. would simply shut down whereas a-still-running USA Inc. could then say, “ok, we’ll let the shipping through if you pay $XX per ton for services rendered in securing your shipping from high seas piracy (in short, a de facto protection racket) since you killed our reserve currency golden goose and we thus can’t continue doing this for ‘free’.”
While I would hope we would innovate as you say, past historical experience coupled with a simple analysis of where we are strong and where China is weak doesn’t seem to support that conclusion. But then again, I’m a pessimist.

Finally, someone with a like mind. If I were pres I would destabilize the long range capabilities of thei milataries of both Russia and China...then set law that they could not develop any long range abilities.

We have more aircraft carriers, subs than any other nation in the world. To quote the stupidity of Ice Cube, here is the message we should be sending to China:

Tha world is mine nigga get back
Dont fuck with my stack the gage is racked
About to drop the bomb Iam tha motherfuckin don
Big fish in a small pond
Now tha feds wanna throw the book at the crook
but I shook they worm and they hook
Guppies hold they breath they wanna miss me
when Iam tipsey
Runnin everything WEST of the Mississippi
Its the unseen pullin strings wit my pinky ring
We got your woman so pucker up
FO we fuck her up
Bow down before I make a phone call
Got 25 niggaz runnin up on ya'll
Fo the cheese we want them keys
Everybody freeze on ya knees butt naked please
Before any of you guppies get heart
Nigga rewind my part and....(Bow Down)

Clarence 13X says

If I were pres I would destabilize the long range capabilities of thei milataries of both Russia and China…then set law that they could not develop any long range abilities.

And how exactly would you do that?

China will never achieve a standard of living on par with what is enjoyed in north america, western europe, japan, and australia.

Neither will india.

Yes, there will be more wealthy people and "well off" people in China than in the United States.

But there will also be hundreds of millions of people living in abject poverty.

China's communist regime can only survive as long as growth continues. Chinese growth is fueled entirely by their cheap exports.

Their exports are cheap for several reasons:

1. Labor costs are low due to the incredibly low standard of living.
2. China does not allow its currency to float freely
3. China does not practice fair trade (american companies are effectively prohibited from doing business in china in any industry that the chinese wish to control)
4. China does not take steps to safeguard the environment (I'm talking really basic stuff like not dumping deadly chemicals into the water supply)
5. The chinese government owns many businesses that sell products at a loss in order to destroy their foreign competition.

NONE of these things are sustainable.

Eventually, China's export market will cease to be competitive, and then people will start talking about manufacturing in Africa. Meanwhile, more and more jobs will simply be done by machines.

shrekgrinch says

They had less than a year of oil left so they felt they had everything to lose by not hitting Pearl Harbor

I was not aware that Hawaii was a major oil producing region. They attacked the East Indies for oil.

bob2356 says

shrekgrinch says

They had less than a year of oil left so they felt they had everything to lose by not hitting Pearl Harbor

I was not aware that Hawaii was a major oil producing region. They attacked the East Indies for oil.

As Shrek said, PH was done to give the Japanese some time to seize what they needed without undue interference from the USN. Plus also to establish the pattern of beat-downs the IJN expected to continue administering to us until we stopped interfering in their affairs.

but forced their backs up against the wall by cutting off 80% of their oil supply simply because they gained territory peacefully by another sovereign nation?

That's not quite the story. FDR's concern was about China proper. Manchuria 1931 was an unpleasant thing but on the order of Japan's fait accompli domination of Korea.

And moving one's troops into a country is not gaining territory peacefully, for one. The Vichy French in Hanoi and Saigon were low-hanging fruit for Japanese expansionism in 1940-41. When Japan moved into the Red River delta in 1940 it was to further blockade the Chinese resistance, and FDR responded with embargoes on strategic metals.

When Japan moved into the Saigon region it became clear they were looking at expansionism beyond French Indochina -- the airfields around Saigon could project power into the South China Sea and the Gulf of Siam, which thus threatened the British holdings of Malaysia and Singapore.

Thus the ratcheting up of the embargoes.

Paralithodes says

Clarence 13X says

If I were pres I would destabilize the long range capabilities of thei milataries of both Russia and China…then set law that they could not develop any long range abilities.

And how exactly would you do that?

Clarence 13X says

Paralithodes says

Clarence 13X says

If I were pres I would destabilize the long range capabilities of thei milataries of both Russia and China…then set law that they could not develop any long range abilities.

And how exactly would you do that?

Invade their countries with our army, navy and marines right up to the point where they threaten to use nukes. Then, I would make sure to target their leadership.

Nomograph says

Do you really think that’s the best way to bring jobs back?

Two ways to increase the participation rate: 1) add jobs or 2) get everyone killed.

Nomograph says

Clarence 13X says

Invade their countries with our army, navy and marines right up to the point where they threaten to use nukes. Then, I would make sure to target their leadership.

Do you really think that’s the best way to bring jobs back?

Probably not in near term, but from what I understand after WWII while all other economies were faltering the US was the only superpower whom did not have to contend with infrastructure issues resulting from bombs.

The theory is that with control of the sea and skies we can reduce military spending and refocus our energies on the economy. We currently control the seas, but with Russia and China having long range capabilities we continue to have to invest heavily into the next BIG military game changing technology in order to seperate ourselves from the pack.

If no other nation had long range capability we could refocus those monies/energies onto economic policy and innovation.

Troy says

Nomograph says

Do you really think that’s the best way to bring jobs back?

Two ways to increase the participation rate: 1) add jobs or 2) get everyone killed.

I am not looking at this in terms of participation, but in terms of overall dominance of other nations. We cannot remain a superpower allowing other nations to challenge our military dominance.

shrekgrinch says

That is when FDR did the blockade. No invasion was required and none happened.

FDR didn't really "do" the blockade. This was accomplished during the summer gov't shutdown of 1941 by factotums in the State Dep't.

And, nobody over here cared about it when judged by our government’s actual actions

Japan strode out of the League of Nations over this issue actually.

The Rape of Nanjing = AOK

The China Lobby was influential in the American media -- and of course Henry Luce was its primary booster. Japan's military might was not respected like Germany's, so the American people were much more given towards a truculent diplomacy with the "Japs". We began supplying Nationalist China with loans and materiel soon after the hostilities started.

Vichy signing over Vietnam = Cut off 80% of Japan’s oil supply.

Vichy didn't just "sign over" its colonial holding. They were invaded and Japan was escalating the war thereby. The time for diplomatic solutions was running out.

Churchill convinced FDR that the only solution could be war or Japan decamping from China proper. That was our final bargaining position after the proposed "modus vivendi" was withdrawn from consideration.

We were not insistent that Japan abandon Manchuria, or Korea for that matter. Just take its hooks out of China.

shrekgrinch says

Yes, they did. Vichy France took its orders from Berlin, remember?

Vichy France was not in Hanoi. The French in their Indochina holding were in no position to resist the Japanese invasion of Vietnam in 1940. And when Japanese transports started dumping infantry in Cam Ranh Bay in 1941 it was clear that losing FIC to Japan was a serious blow to the strategic position of our European friends (and ourselves, too, given the resources we received from the French colony).

Exactly. FDR’s State Dept.

I'm not entirely sure what you're arguing here -- something about FDR blindsiding the Japanese in 1941 while not caring about their prior transgressions adequately enough, but that's not an accurate picture of the diplomatic situation.

With the advance of Japans military into S Vietnam, it was clear that very aggressive economic sanctions would have to be emplaced if the US wanted to effect its policy of getting Japan back to the pre-1937 status quo.

FDR's Executive Order 8832 of late July 1941 put in place a very controlled trading environment with Japan and its trading companies, but were designed to tighten our grip on their throat without prompting them to launch war.

It was Dean Acheson and his control of a interagency committee that turned this grip into an actual chokehold that August. http://www.h-net.org/reviews/showrev.php?id=22899 for a summary of a good book about this.

Our government not doing squat when they invaded Manchuria?

The Republicans running the gov't in 1931-32 mounted some attempt at reproach but our hands were rather tied due to the global trade collapse and freezing of global capital flows removing any financial levers we once had with Japan.

Domestic issues occupied our attention in 1933-34, and at any rate the mood of the country was very isolationist.

After the resumption of hostilities in 1937 FDR responded with his Quarantine speech and began moving to put policies in gear to do more than moral suasion against the Japanese, but that didn't go anywhere until Japanese escalation with its military occupation of Vietnam that followed the fail of France. Plus its joining the Axis in late 1940 raised the stakes with us, too.

Germany's invasion of Russia also encouraged a hardening of Japan's position in 1941, as the Russian crisis of 1941-42 secured their northern flank in Asia.

By mid-1941 they had their eyes on expanding their empire into Southern Indochina, Thailand, and the British & Dutch colonies, which had become nearly orphaned due to their allies' successes in Europe and N Africa.

shrekgrinch says

Hanoi was not independent anymore than the Virgin Islands are. It was still owned by Vichy France.

My point was not every overseas possession took orders from Vichy. eg. New Caledonia.

shrekgrinch says

Uh, cutting off 80% of an industrialized nation’s oil supply constitutes not ‘prompting them to launch war’?

My point was that was not FDR's intent in July 1941, it was Acheson's implementation that August that established the embargo, and FDR allowed it to continue after he got back into DC and into the saddle in early September. Also during this time the SOS Cordell Hull -- who actually ran the nation's diplomacy -- was out of action.

We did not expect them to launch a war, no. We may have lacked understanding of their naval capabilities and stick-to-it-iveness, but our general weighing of their strategic capability against us in prolonged conflict was correct.

shrekgrinch says

We’ve gone to war for less than that. Why shouldn’t the Japanese?

"Hitler's fate was sealed. Mussolini's fate was sealed. As for the Japanese, they would be ground to powder." -- Winston Churchill

shrekgrinch says

Had the Japanese not joined the Axis, I submit to you that they could have invaded and taken Vichy France’s French Indonesian holdings by force and FDR would have been more constrained in his response.

No, even without the European dimension, like I said above Japan seizing southern Vietnam really escalated the situation. Strategically, it literally put them on the road to Cambodia, and Japanese maritime bombers based at French airbases in S Vietnam could dominate the South China Sea and the Gulf of Siam (as they did when they sunk HMS PoW at the start of the war). It was obvious that the Japanese move into S Vietnam was preparatory to their eventual move into British Malaysia and Dutch Indonesia, and that (along with the lost Indochina trade) was unacceptable given the strategic resources -- riches -- of the area.

But, also, my point was FDR's response *was* more constrained than what was actually implemented. I don't know the actual backstory, but it would be interesting. Jonathan Utley in his book said, "The freeze was designed to bring Japan to her senses, not her knees."

Opinion polls showed the freeze against Japan was a popular move. The nation wanted to save China, but of course we didn't quite know how difficult that road was going to be.

shrekgrinch says

So FDR & Morons took an action that guaranteed not only war but in such a way that the Japanese were able to fulfill those strategic directives (by eliminating our Pacific Fleet)

Our Pacific Fleet was useless as events proved and was better sunk in 40' of water than 15,000'. And at any rate we were already building a much better fleet to replace it.

shrekgrinch says

Strategically, the Japanese were justified in what they did as far as attacking our fleet at Pearl Harbor

The only justification needed for initiating a war is winning it. Anything else is poppycockry.