patrick.net

dunnross says

A place where people who make an average wage cannot find housing affordable, can not survive on a sustained basis... a place like this, will soon find an exodus of good jobs to other cities where housing is affordable

Well let's see, our region has seen exoduses of good jobs and entire industries decade after decade but the prices are higher each decade. Kinda like, NYC I think. They don't produce anything there anymore, and haven't for a long time. But the cost of housing keeps going up over there. Kinda like that here.

sybrib says

dunnross says

A place where people who make an average wage cannot find housing affordable, can not survive on a sustained basis… a place like this, will soon find an exodus of good jobs to other cities where housing is affordable

Well let’s see, our region has seen exoduses of good jobs and entire industries decade after decade but the prices are higher each decade. Kinda like, NYC I think. They don’t produce anything there anymore, and haven’t for a long time. But the cost of housing keeps going up over there. Kinda like that here.

That's my point. Bay Area doesn't compete for jobs with New York city, or even Chicago. In New York City, 25 year old's who work for wall street banks make in 1 year bonuses more than what it takes a San Jose techie to make in his lifetime. If you want to compare the Bay Area to another city, compare it to a city like Austin, Texas, but not to New York.

sybrib says

dunnross says

If you want to compare the Bay Area to another city, compare it to a city like Austin, Texas

I like Austin, had a good time there each time I was there; considered relocating there before, and it may happen yet. Why would a Bay Arean like me want to relocate to a place like Austin? Because it’s not like the Bay Area! Sort of like, the businesses like Apple and Applied Materials who’ve moved operations to that area.
San Francisco Bay Area more like Austin than other crowded coveted (overpriced and expensive) metropolis’ in the world? More like Austin? I wish it were so, because in that case we would have a higher standard of living. But it’s not more like Austin/

No, Bay Area has the amenities and the jobs like Austin, but, with RE prices like New York city.

haha great avatar

Syphilis says

haha great avatar

Yes, I got this one because sybrib gave me an idea of foie gras.

Oh, those are the guys from Nigeria. I know them very well. They use fake cashier's checks. You can read all about them over here:

http://www.internetscamalert.com/

not sure if you guys are aware, but with all the talk about betting which way a market goes,,,,

why not create your own market on xbet or one of the legal sites that allows you to, put your money where your mouth is

pick something like case shiller 10 city comp for feb or march, and an over under for price and make a market.

LETS GAMBLE

sybrib says

cloud13 says

logic tells me that these poor asses which are hanging on to these homes, and driving beater cars won’t be able to resist longer.

Whoa fella, don’t be so sure.
I have a beater-looking vehicles in front of my home, which I could pay off now if I wanted to (the home, not the beaters which of course are paid for).
But taking gains to pay off a 4.5% deductible loan doesnt figure in my logic.
Beater-looking cars, if they’re mechanically maintained, are a good transportation value.

sybrib says

cloud13 says

logic tells me that these poor asses which are hanging on to these homes, and driving beater cars won’t be able to resist longer.

Whoa fella, don’t be so sure.
I have a beater-looking vehicles in front of my home, which I could pay off now if I wanted to (the home, not the beaters which of course are paid for).
But taking gains to pay off a 4.5% deductible loan doesnt figure in my logic.
Beater-looking cars, if they’re mechanically maintained, are a good transportation value.

Syrib,

It wasn't directed at you personally but I'm giving you the data from the field. It's kind of a addiction to read patrick , be in as many open houses as i can from 2008 onwards. Some of the 1 million dollar homes in Los Gatos haven't been able to afford a nice LCD TV yet.

How do you explain this ?

I would dry a beamer (not a beater ) if they can.
everyone would live in Los Altos (not in san jose) if I can.
and i can go on......

Money shows in the way you live.... and I'm not even saying that rich people do it show it but It's very natural for them to live in this fashion.

So my question is , these "poor asses" who are bought into homewership to make some money or who can as well live in Gillroy or Morgan hill would be lured to sell their home for a profit and cash out.
They cannot resist the temptation or distress- either of it, that's what i mean by resisiting.

For record- I'm neither permabear nor permabull but just guaging the things without being judgemental.

By way of perspective, what goes on in California does not necessarily reflect real estate markets elsewhere. Home prices in my area never rose to the averages seen in California, meaning that mortgages are smaller here but wages are generally good. Maryland, as an example, has a far higher median household income than California.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_income

We surely have a foreclosure issue here, but it's not quite as dire as the leading foreclosure centers.

austrian_man says

theoakman,
Volatility depends on the way you look at the situation. When you value gold/silver against the fiat dollar, obviously there’s going to be volatility - because these two metals are subject to human emotion more than anything else. The point is to look at gold/silver as real money and ignore their price variations with dollar. The metals are essentially a hedge against the fiat currency collapse. If the metals price falls, that just means the purchasing power of the dollar increased, but the purchasing power of the metals stayed the same.
Market cannot figure out what they are worth, because the market is trying to value money using manipulated money!

I fully realize the volatility vs the dollar. The fact remains, gold and silver, while much more stable than fiat money in terms of prices, still fluctuate wildly. Like I said, I can now buy twice as many cars as I would like to with my Silver. Did the value of cars and everything else suddenly drop? I doubt it. Gold and Silver are more than capable of going into a bubble I won't be surprised if they do over the next 2-3 years.

I live in San Diego and I believe these are flips:

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100072589-1677_Saturn_Blvd_San_Diego_CA_92154

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100066240-8010_Beechwood_Ct_Lemon_Grove_CA_91945

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100031597-1252_16th_St_San_Diego_CA_92154

Potential Flips:

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100061676-6721_Cielo_Dr_San_Diego_CA_92114

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100057511-916_Melrose_Ave_Chula_Vista_CA_91911

NAR says in its 2010 study of buyers and sellers that 91 percent of all buyers had financing, meaning just 9 percent were all cash.

I suspect qualifying today is easier than in 2005 because rates are better than a percent lower.

mediaprofessor says

What do you guys think about home prices in the $1million price range in the Los Angeles area? Do you think this price range of homes has taken a large hit over the past few years? Do you think it will stabilize for a while?

By the time RE hits true bottom, the percentage of homes with $1M or higher price tags should be a statistical anomaly.

says

>Silicon Valley is alive and well.

Intel to Build $5 Billion Arizona Chip Plant, Hire 4,000 in U.S. This Year

Intel Corp., during a visit by President Barack Obama, announced plans to build a $5 billion microprocessor plant in Arizona and hire 4,000 employees in the U.S. this year.

The workers will focus on product development, research and design, Chief Executive Officer Paul Otellini said, as he showed Obama around an Intel plant near Portland, Oregon. The new factory will be built at the company’s existing site in Chandler, Arizona.

Intel, the world’s largest chipmaker, is expanding its factory network to meet increasing demand for chips. The company said last month that it would spend $8.7 billion to $9.3 billion on plants and equipment this year, compared with $5.2 billion in 2010. Revenue may rise 14 percent to $49.5 billion this year, the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

The company, which does manufacturing in Oregon, New Mexico and Arizona in the U.S. and Ireland, Israel and China internationally, has called on the government for tax breaks to make it cheaper to build facilities in the U.S

OurBroker says

I suspect qualifying today is easier than in 2005 because rates are better than a percent lower.

wat

cloud13 says

Some of the 1 million dollar homes in Los Gatos haven’t been able to afford a nice LCD TV yet.
How do you explain this ?

Maybe they don't want one.

I don't have a nice LCD TV "yet". Don't really sit in front of that boob tube enough hours in the day to make it worthwhile. Might be different if I live in dunross' weather paradises of Chicago (winter) or Austin (summer).

I suppose when my CRT + new tuner box dies, I'll get an LCD TV.

cloud13 says

I would dry a beamer (not a beater ) if they can.

everyone would live in Los Altos (not in san jose) if I can.

Everyone ? Or just everyone who shares those values?

Nomograph says

dunnross says

All your ideas of why the Bay Area should be a glamor city are a complete hogwash. Let’s take them, 1 at a time:

It sounds to me like you just hate the Bay Area. Fair enough, but your personal opinion as to where you want to live doesn’t drive housing markets. Most people find the Bay Area highly desirable. Very few ever leave for reasons other than family/job obligations. And yes, the BA tech job market is highly competitive which is why the worlds best end up there. Those lucrative positions at top firms don’t come easy, and even in the best of times 3rd and 4th tier keyboard jockeys will get knocked off. It’s that way in every high-skill, high-stakes profession.
dunnross says

“The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos in the Bay Area was $338,000 in January, down 9.9 percent from $375,000 in December”

MOM statistics are generally meaningless because they fluctuate wildly due to seasonal variation. YOY statistics have much more meaning, and your article states a 3.9% drop in the BA YOY. That is a modest drop, but nowhere near enough yet to approach the 2009 bottom. Thus far, the market seems to be bouncing off the bottom.
Your assertion that BA prices are falling at the rate of 10% per month is just plain silly. Free houses on the Peninsula for everyone by October!

Saying that it doesn't merit the title of a "glamor city" is not the same as "hating it". Somehow, a lot of BA residents here, seem to have this anal fixation about the BA being this "glamor" utopia. Maybe, they should get off their buts, and go travel a little more, and not only to places like Bejing and Mumbai.

dunnross says

Also people would pay for anything, even if it was overpriced, because people have this uncanny ability to fall into denial, and convince themselves, that somehow those prices are justified, just because they happen to live here, and, because they do, there is not other place better then home.

One of the tradeoffs some of us make to stay here, because of our personal choices that are as varied and different as the millions who choose to reside here, is to share the space with the influx of recent decades folks from all over the USA and all over the world that are so smart, so savvy, so Cool and Hip, so self confident, that they "know" what goes on inside the minds of others. Welcome to the Cool and Hip Bay Area. Some of the locals who I grew up with here in the region have told me it was that "influence" as much as the high cost of living that motivated them to leave. That is what I was told, I did not project my own self confidence into what really goes on inside their minds.

I dunno what is going on inside of your mind but if I take at face value what you wrote, it sounds like you could improve your life and in a very tiny incremental way improve the lives of others, by leaving.

sybrib says

dunnross says

Also people would pay for anything, even if it was overpriced, because people have this uncanny ability to fall into denial, and convince themselves, that somehow those prices are justified, just because they happen to live here, and, because they do, there is not other place better then home.

One of the tradeoffs some of us make to stay here, because of our personal choices that are as varied and different as the millions who choose to reside here, is to share the space with the influx of recent decades folks from all over the USA and all over the world that are so smart, so savvy, so Cool and Hip, so self confident, that they “know” what goes on inside the minds of others. Welcome to the Cool and Hip Bay Area. Some of the locals who I grew up with here in the region have told me it was that “influence” as much as the high cost of living that motivated them to leave. That is what I was told, I did not project my own self confidence into what really goes on inside their minds.
I dunno what is going on inside of your mind but if I take at face value what you wrote, it sounds like you could improve your life and in a very tiny incremental way improve the lives of others, by leaving.

Sybrib, you can't make any conclusion like that by simply reading my posts. My, personal reason for staying here, may have nothing to do with the overall quality of life in the BA, or whether the quality of life justifies high housing prices. For me personally, I managed to find a solution to these unjustifiably high prices in this "pseudo glamor city" by renting. I am sure that lots of other cities of patrick.net have come to the same conclusion.

Nothing wrong with renting. You dont have to buy a house. Some people happen to want to have a house here
and you're competing with a lot of deep pockets.

Anyone in the BA who's owned a house since 1995 or so is sitting on a big chuck of equity. Imagine if you sold your Los Altos house that had appreciated and "downgraded" to a 700k house in Santa Clara. Suddenly 700k doesn't look so expensive.

So being out of the market you're at a big disadvantage.

dunnross says

Sybrib, you can’t make any conclusion like that by simply reading my posts. My, personal reason for staying here, may have nothing to do with the overall quality of life in the BA, or whether the quality of life justifies high housing prices. For me personally, I managed to find a solution to these unjustifiably high prices in this “pseudo glamor city” by renting. I am sure that lots of other cities of patrick.net have come to the same conclusion.

I see, you made my point. You are not in denial, like the millions of the rest of us, you made a choice. You chose your tradeoff. The other millions of us chose ours. Maybe some of us are in denial, maybe not.

Another Cool and Hip immigrant(*) to the Cool and Hip Bay Area asserted that folks who dont have a nice LCD television is because they cannot afford it; s/he also sized up someone's financial health by the appearance of their cars.

(*) by immigrant I mean, from outside the Bay Area (could be another part of the USA or even California).

dunnross says

I can assure you that it doesn’t rain as much in Chicago, during the summer, as it does in SF during the winter.

Could be.
I don't think it snows as much in San Francisco in the winter as it does in Chicago.
Today my Bay Arean kids are enjoying snow, though, in Tahoe. And if things go according to plan, they will be back home here in the Bay Area, where it doesn't snow, in time for a (very) late dinner.

Levi's will be going up - alot.
Gas will be going up - alot.
Home prices will not be going up.
Wages will not be going up.
Hem lines can't possibly go up! My goodness some ladies are made to wear a skirt and boots! (sorry, weak moment!)
Interest rates ? I am not sure. If the dollar is still here in 5 years, then they will be higher.

Every thing is a Liberal conspiracy.

Summer of Love was just a bait and switch.

"What we wanted was breakfast in bed, but what we got was paying for the lazy asses to eat breakfast, lunch and dinner in bed. " "No More Reign!"

In Ron Paul's book "End the Fed" he's got a nice exponential graph near the beginning which illustrates that the purchasing power of gold has moved in a tenfold range. That's pretty big.

But in the time the Fed has existed, the purchasing power of a dollar is down to 1/20th of what it started out as. So the Fed is worse, and almost always works in the inflationary direction, while gold can swing either way.

dunnross says

The weather statistic .... is showing a higher precipitation for SF 4.72 vs. Chicago 4.3.

Wow ! I think we got at least those four tenths of an inch from yesterday's storm, looks like nature proved you right.

Nomograph says

dunnross says

that there are people who prefer Chicago’s weather to SF

Not many. You are the first person I have ever heard say this.

People who make money clearing roads, sidewalks and roofs of snow may prefer it. Probably people who make a living selling winter wear, and selling/service AC units may prefer that weather, too.

dunnross says

FREEZING during RAIN is almost impossible, unless you live in one of those 3/2 shacks in the Bay Area without any insulation.

Good thing it doesn't get so cold here as it does in Chicago.

People have died here because of the weather. In traffic accidents on wet roads (but not icy ones).

But it is rare to learn about people dying from the cold around here.

Or the heat.

I recall not too many years ago during a heat wave in Chicago, elderly people dying in their apartments from the heat. Local government was trying to figure out who they could help by giving away fans.

Probably some people prefer that kind of weather when they choose a place to reside, and they may take drought / firestorm earthquakes into account, too.

SF ace says

You didn’t reconcile your own fact. Name me one condo in San Jose that rents for 2K and sells for 600K - 800K. Just one.

I didn't say that there were any for 2K that sell for 600K - 800K. That was your idea. I can find you plenty of ones which sell for $430K or more, but wouldn't rent for more than $1600/mo. As I also stated before, I live in a place which costs over $850K, but only rents for $3K/mo.

dunnross says

that there are people who prefer Chicago’s weather to SF

Get on the plane and fly to Chicago. I am sure you’d find plenty who do.

God bless 'em. Maybe that's part of why they choose to live there. And the weather here, for some, (doesn't mean you), is part of the reason some folks choose to live here. Self-selected cohorts of folks. And for here, so many folks including the likes of yourself that it costs more to live here than other places.

But we save on stuff too. I don't pay for all the various and sundry stuff that goes with winter living in that area.

Don't even own a coat. Don't need a proper winter coat to live around here.

Jackets, yes, including a snowboarding jacket, sometimes rent a 4WD to take it to the snow, but that's a discretionary expense. It's not a basic necessity to survive and get to work each day.

dunnross says

I live in a place which costs over $850K, but only rents for $3K/mo.

Only !

Jeezus Kee-Rhist no wonder you are so down on the cost of living around here.

It costs about 50K a year in wages to make that kind of rent. Ouch ! I hope that residence has a lot of amenities that you can enjoy so you can get your $ worth out of the trade.

Tenouncetrout says

Summer of Love was just a bait and switch

They got you in with the promise of love, but you bought hate instead ?

It didn't have to go that way. Besides, I'm guessing it wasn't really the lazy hippies who sold you the hate.

sybrib says

dunnross says

that there are people who prefer Chicago’s weather to SF
Get on the plane and fly to Chicago. I am sure you’d find plenty who do.

God bless ‘em. Maybe that’s part of why they choose to live there. And the weather here, for some, (doesn’t mean you), is part of the reason some folks choose to live here. Self-selected cohorts of folks. And for here, so many folks including the likes of yourself that it costs more to live here than other places.
But we save on stuff too. I don’t pay for all the various and sundry stuff that goes with winter living in that area.
Don’t even own a coat. Don’t need a proper winter coat to live around here.
Jackets, yes, including a snowboarding jacket, sometimes rent a 4WD to take it to the snow, but that’s a discretionary expense. It’s not a basic necessity to survive and get to work each day.

Exactly, but does that really justify more than 3x times the ratio in house prices between the 2 cities? I can argue that the price in Chicago should be 3x times of the Bay Area, because the schools are so much better over there, but people in both Chicago and the Bay Area would probably think that that's just silly, but is it any more silly than saying that 3x times prices are justified here, because we have less rainfall?

dunnross says

Exactly, but does that really justify more than 3x times the ratio in house prices between the 2 cities?

dunnross, if you live in San Jose and work in tech, you may have noticed there's a heckuva lot of tech workers, many with PhD's, who come from a part of the world where paying such a high portion of household income for housing is normal compared to our point of view. For whatever reasons, they seem to Cling to the Coast. They have brought their normalcy of what is reasonable housing cost with them. Maybe this is part of What Makes the Bay Area Special.

When you see The Fortress approach the crowdedness of places like Mumbai and Shanghai, or see folks renting sleeping places in cages like in Hong Kong, then I agree with you that it won't be sustainable. But for the time being this is the Wide Open Spaces of the Prairie for those folks, and like SFAce says, at Bargain Prices.

sybrib says

dunnross says

Exactly, but does that really justify more than 3x times the ratio in house prices between the 2 cities?

dunnross, if you live in San Jose and work in tech, you may have noticed there’s a heckuva lot of tech workers, many with PhD’s, who come from a part of the world where paying such a high portion of household income for housing is normal compared to our point of view. For whatever reasons, they seem to Cling to the Coast. They have brought their normalcy of what is reasonable housing cost with them. Maybe this is part of What Makes the Bay Area Special.
When you see The Fortress approach the crowdedness of places like Mumbai and Shanghai, or see folks renting sleeping places in cages like in Hong Kong, then I agree with you that it won’t be sustainable. But for the time being this is the Wide Open Spaces of the Prairie for those folks, and like SFAce says, at Bargain Prices.

Well, although I have never been to China, myself, I have been to India. In India, the biggest expense which they are paying right now is food and fuel. In Bangalore, India, you could buy a luxury 2bdrm apt of approximately 1,150sq ft for $120K. An average engineer makes about 1/3 of what an equivalent engineer would make in the Bay Area, so that corresponds to about $360K in the Bay Area. However, you've got to remember, that the population density of Bangalore is about 5 times of what it is in the Bay Area. Regardless, I feel that the house prices in those countries are also in a huge bubble which is about to implode. I wouldn't be surprised to see prices correcting in many places in China and India by 80% or more. In China they have over 60M flats which are vacant. So, once the final vestiges of the bubble implode in China & India, I don't think that Bay Area prices will seem like bargains to these foreigners.

toothfairy says

Anyone in the BA who’s owned a house since 1995 or so is sitting on a big chuck of equity. Imagine if you sold your Los Altos house that had appreciated and “downgraded” to a 700k house in Santa Clara. Suddenly 700k doesn’t look so expensive.

Guess that would be me.. yes I can use that equity and get more into debt.
But that is all i or any other homeowner can do. Go to the bank and sign it over for debt.

Than go out and buy a new TV, car or long vacation. But I have my earnings for that.

Is that any kind of real wealth or as Troy correctly puts it fake wealth.

SF ace says

Here’s one for you, a rare superstar VC in Sand Hill Road makes more in bonus in one year than an Austin Techie in a lifetime as well.

VCs skim from the top of their fund as fees they get from investments and selling startups in M&A deals. They do not pull in earnings or bonus from operations but transaction deals. Its really no different than what Bernie Madoff did in some cases.

thomas.wong1986 says

Is that any kind of real wealth or as Troy correctly puts it fake wealth.

Would that be like the vapor wealth of all those unvested stock options during the dot.com? Kinda like the vapor ware they wrote about at the time? Vapor equity perhaps? The vapors that inflated the bubble?