patrick.net

@Nomograph - 99% of all housing materials are made overseas....your cement is probably made in mexico and the siding also. bathroom fixtures and door sets...please what percentage of product sold is made in the usa.

majority of laboratory glassware is made in turkey or india....

more plywood is imported into the usa than produced here....

your windows probably are made in the usa with illegal mexicans....

your ford was made in the usa...really....what percentage of the parts were made in the usa...your ford might have been 'assembled' but probably 65% were foreign parts....

Kewaunee equipment...maybe assembled in carolina but made in singapore and bangalore....

pyrex glass tubing...all made in china...all of it....i was a glass blower and manufactured custom laboratory glassware and 30 years ago the tube/rod glass was made in america...not today

ALL OF THE FANCY MEDICAL EQUIPMENT IS ASSEMBLED IN THE USA from parts made over seas.........very few of the parts are acyually made here.

i could go on and on but....if 95% of your stuff is made in america, why do we have a trade deficit...?....get real.

tatupu70 says

709hannah says

then go long GM stock …what are you waiting for. while you are at it go long treasuries and aapl and nflx and throw in some california RE

I’m more of an index guy.
709hannah says

….good luck and remember…dont do the numbers just read the headlines….good luck

No—headlines are often misleading. I’m assuming you are being sarcastic, and if so, it’s one thing I’ll agree with you on. Unfortunately, you appear to have your mind made up before you get to the numbers..

tatupu70 - can i be clearer...do the math! if you read the headline you will be lied to and mislead. my original post states 'do the math'. these idiots go by headlines and dont have a clue how the numbers are arrived at.........

709hannah says

i could go on and on but….if 95% of your stuff is made in america, why do we have a trade deficit…?….get real.

Ever heard of oil?

709hannah says

tatupu70 - can i be clearer…do the math! if you read the headline you will be lied to and lislead. my original post states ‘do the math’. these idiots go by headlines and dont have a clue how the numbers are arrived at………

I did the math. The math told a different story than you did...

what did it tell you...?

It told me that GM had a good year.

so without the oil component. we wouldnt have a deficit...BULLSH&T....!

numbers...dont give me a 'headline'....what was good? did they pay back the gov loans....buy back all the gm stock owned by the tax payers...?

709hannah says

numbers…dont give me a ‘headline’….what was good? did they pay back the gov loans….buy back all the gm stock owned by the tax payers…?

Which numbers would you like? Total sales? Net income? Retail sales? Cash flow? ROA? ROI?

how about sales of GM cars in china....up or down? thats their big new market isnt it...?

are GM production numbers/sales up or down....?

....so are inventories up or down...?

how much money has the gov pushed to GM....?

would GM make a profit if it had to pay taxes....?...$45bil gift from uncle sam

..and why has the stock price fallen to below the IPO price if it is doing so well...?

709hannah says

so without the oil component. we wouldnt have a deficit…BULLSH&T….!

No we still would. But petroleum based products are 50%+ of our current deficit.

I say invest in Southeast Asia, particularly the Phillipines. Can't own 100 per cent of land there but you can go into partnerships.

CAT, X, AAPL, have been good for me. UPS or FDX, or some leading indicators seem smart if there is a ramp up on the consumer side.

Why would homebuilders be good? Don't we have surplus houses that lie vacant?

Maybe CAT will do even better when they need those big D9s to bulldoze Vegas and the Inland Empire?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IDF_Caterpillar_D9

I agree that it is a problem that needs to be addressed, and some of their suggestions make sense. Others are vague and also questionable ethically.

Here are two excerpts from the Hoover document that I find at odds:

The system lacks discipline. The purpose of the public pension system has shifted away from providing retirement security to public employees. Today, the pension system is regarded as deferred compensation – the perceived tradeoff of earning a lower salary in the public sector in exchange for a good retirement
package.

and this

Recommendation 1: To reduce growing pension liabilities of current public workers, state and local governments must pursue aggressive strategies on multiple fronts.

The Legislature should give state and local governments the authority to alter the future, unaccrued retirement benefits for current public employees.

They acknowledge that this was understood as deferred compensation. And then later they say the state needs to take that compensation back (essentially raiding our pensions). They don't say that this would be a last resort after trying all other recommendations. And they are very vague about what this would even mean.

So I guess they are saying that after the state lured quality people into these jobs with a promise of compensation x, that now, when these employees have committed themselves and invested themselves, and now have less employment alternatives, they will decrease their compensation from what was promised ?

Other measures such as having caps, and preventing pension spiking I agree with.

why do we have a 'dumping' case against cemex if we dont import mexican cement. i said 'your' as i dont know where your cement came from. i didnt say we probably import....we do import mexican cement....a lot of it.

cemex cement at home depot.
http://www.homedepot.com/h_d1/N-5yc1vZ1xgl/R-100321932/h_d2/ProductDisplay?langId=-1&storeId=10051&catalogId=10053

one of my oldest clients is americas largest manufacturer of residential windows and the entire floor work force is mexican.....

america cars dont have any foreign parts....maybe you need to check out the 'domestic parts content' area on the price stickers at the car dealerships...

the glass companies you listed are suppliers NOT manufacturers. they list their sources as foreign companies...

...again...why do we have such a large trade deficit if we make everything here....?

Other parts of their suggestions are somewhat transparent. They suggest future employees have a limited defined benefit pension combined with a employer matched 401k. Suggesting that the 401k be conservatively invested.

What I find fascinating about this part of their suggestion is that by reducing the amount that future employees pay in to the defined benefit pensions, they would further adversely impact the ability of the pension funds to make it through the old age of baby bloomers.

If you think about it, their plan is a transparent all out attack on California pensions. As long as they get some competent non biased actuaries looking at this, I'm not too worried. Figuring out what they are thinking here is not exactly rocket science.

Too bad they couldn't just try to make recommendations to solve the problem without the ulterior agenda.

marcus says

and now have less employment alternatives, they will decrease their compensation from what was promised

Thing is, I don't think the public is going to vote to pay for stuff like this:

"CalSTRS' formula, which is based largely on employee salary, age and longevity, tends to reward retirement at age 61½. For example, a teacher who has worked for 35 years, making $90,000 in her final year, could retire at age 62 and reap a $75,600 annual pension."

http://calpensions.com/2011/03/07/budget-busting-pensions-spark-ballot-measures/

Now that's a gold-bricked pension plan. Not going to survive in this environment, not at all.

marcus says

So I guess they are saying that after the state lured quality people into these jobs with a promise of compensation x

If you were already employed in 1999, you were not in anyway lured by the large benefit increase from SB-400. It was just a straight up giveaway.

marcus says

their plan is a transparent all out attack on California pensions.

yup. Willy Horton time. I think there is an object lesson to be learned here and that's that collective bargaining units really have to police their own ranks.

Pension spiking is impossible for teachers but the whole system is suffering from how the rules can be gamed.

Back in 1999 we got stupid. Somebody set us up the bomb.

Politically I think the anti-labor Republicans have the unions by the short hairs here. If they continue to play hardball with Brown by refusing to OK his initiatives, they can win the debate by just forcing the cuts they want.

The Republican's job now is to just watch the muther burn to the ground. Democrats haven't been able to mount a defense of the system yet.

nomo - you should go long the stock market....maybe buy some GM/NFLX/AAPL. also buy yourself some treasuries...30yr. ....... maybe also buy some R.E. in phoenix or miami........and lets look at this topic again on 03.07.2012.......and see how you've done.

remember, american manufacturing is growing at the fastest rate in 7 years.

Troy says

The Republican’s job now is to just watch the muther burn to the ground. Democrats haven’t been able to mount a defense of the system yet.

The ball is very much in the Democrats court. They hold both houses, and the Governors seat. And now that we passed prop 25 which makes a budget a simple majority, the Republicans can't block the budget like in years past.

Or course another way of thinking about is that the Dems won't be able to blame the Republicans any more. Any failure they will have to totally own.

Check out the numbers before jumping to conclusions.

Troy says

CalSTRS’ formula, which is based largely on employee salary, age and longevity, tends to reward retirement at age 61½. For example, a teacher who has worked for 35 years, making $90,000 in her final year, could retire at age 62 and reap a $75,600 annual pension.”

http://calpensions.com/2011/03/07/budget-busting-pensions-spark-ballot-measures/

Now that’s a gold-bricked pension plan. Not going to survive in this environment, not at all.

STRS formula applies to salary only, not including summer school or extra work. You would be hard pressed to find many district in California where top top pay is much over 75K. ALso it seems the multiplier used in this case would be for someone 64 years old not 61.

Usually you are a pretty thoughtful guy Troy, but you aren't basing this on the numbers.

You have heard me explain it before. But here it is using your numbers with conservative estimates.

This person with the 90K ending salary would have paid an average of somewhere around 550 per month into the pension (YES STRAIGHT OUT OF THEIR SALARY IN PLACE OF SOCIAL SECURITY)

Say the district and state paid another 650/month into the fund. Yes I know this 7800 per year, in pension benefit is SO SO MUCH. How can they afford such an extravagant benefit.

Anyway, I'm putting the numbers in to my financial calculator here and see that 1200/month invested for 35 years at a conservative 5% it would grow to $1, 363, 310.

Now let me annuitize that and pay it back out in an annuity for 24 years (again assuming 5% interest). Ahh, it would be $95, 600/ year that he would be paid from age 62 to age 86.

If I used a higher rate, say 7% it would be MUCH MUCH higher.

MAybe my numbers average contribution numbers are a little high, and the average of what he and the state paid in are a little high. At 90K he would be paying 600/ month and the district and state would be paying 750.
So the average would probably be somewhat less than what I said. But then again I used 5% (way less than how STRS has done on avg) and I had him living 24 more years, which is probably kind of high.

You look at the numbers and it's not that golden. It's 35 years of paying in.

nomo - i call that put up or shut up...; )

buy buy buy if everything is so great...debate..?...debating with you is like adding water to acid....

MarkInSF says

the Republicans can’t block the budget like in years past.

I think the situation in California is exactly like the current budget impasse in Japan. The "Democrats" there can pass the budget, but need the conservatives to agree to raise taxes to fund it.

Good report. Seems like CA is in for a big crash, it's coming. Have to say, no shock there. I've lived in this state for too long, I'm surprised it held out this much. A lot of the programs are abused, certain unions have way too many legislative friends.

Politicians just keep on shifting the problems down the future, and here are the results. This crash is well deserved in my opinion, years of self denial and legislative lies not solving problems but simply handing tax dollars away and moving on to better opportunities.

I have every reason to believe you are capable of comprehending my numbers above, in which case you realize that this kind of pension does not cost the state that much. Literally we are talking just a couple thousand per year per employee more than what they would pay as an employer paying into social security. Oh those crazy benefits state employees get.

That's our big benefit. As state employees we get to pay in to a real pension fund instead of what social security is (basically a way of temporarily funding tax cuts for the rich ).

marcus says

I have every reason to believe you are capable of comprehending my numbers above, in which case you realize that this kind of pension does not cost the state that much.

I've been crunching some numbers since my last above.

Here's what I got. . .

My starting year is 1990 since that's when the employer contribution was raised to 8.25%. Employee contribution has been 8% since 1972. I am ignoring the juicer contribution of 2-4% since that is variable.

Since the 1980s, Calstrs has been pretty aggressive investing around 80% in equities, so I am using 80% of the S&P 500 as an annual rate of return.

Taking the newly minted teacher starting out at age 25 in 1990, I assign him a $30,000 salary from which 16.25% is deducted off the top. Of course, one of the major mistakes the union has done is not have this 8.25% "employer" contribution come from you own salaries -- makes it harder for the Gordon Geckos of the world to take it from you, eh.

Giving the teacher $2000/yr raises will max out his salary at $90,000 in 2020.

In 2010, this is what the spreadsheet is saying:

Current salary: $70,000.
Total contributions: $170,000.
Investment gains: $150,000.
Total socked away: $320,000

Assuming 8% returns here on out, in 2026 the teacher will be a very old 61 and have:

Current salary: $90,000.
Total contributions: $390,000.
Investment gains: $1.1M
Total socked away: $1.5M

At continued 8% returns, the 25-yr annuity value on that cashpile would be $123,000 per year.

Of course, only Madoff got his customers 8% returns. . .

With 3% returns (the average of 1999-2009) from here on out, the total principal will be $800,000 in 2026 and the annuity value is only $44,000/yr.

Of course, any political argument you have to argue with spreadsheets is one you're going to lose, alas.

Nomograph says

709hannah says

debating with you is like adding water to acid….

Debate? You haven’t presented any facts or figures regarding US manufacturing.
You challenged everyone to find something in their home that is US-made. I gave you a long list and you simply disregard everything as being “made by illegal Mexicans”.
What kind of debate is that?

Nomo, you haven't provided any facts or figures either except your original post and that is actually a survey not fact based. You never replied to questions about how the accounting is done for items sold that have imported contents, you never provided any types of figures of actual sales, you put up as prove of your assertions a walk through your house. I also ask what kind of debate is this?

I don't know if US manufacturing is actually the largest in the world or just a largest assemblers of parts from other places in the world, but you haven't made a case of any kind.

Yes, we also passed prop 26, which blocked the only other avenue for raising revenue w/o a 2/3 vote, which essentially means voter approved only now.

It's kind of absurd. We tell the legislature to spend as much money as they want, but if you want to actually raise revenue run it by us first.

And I have a feeling that the only reason prop 25 passed - the one that made a budget just require a majority - was because it was presented as a punish-the-goverment bill in the TV ads, even though that was a minor provision of the initiative. (first sentence of the summary is "Legislature permanently forfeits daily salary and expenses until budget bill passes.") Very clever, but also very sad.

Voter approved amendments to the constitution with a simple majority vote of the population was not one of the brightest ideas ever conceived.

In LA, teachers salaries are close to maxing out in a little over 10 years, but closer to 70,000 ( if they meet requirements for a lot of additional education or training).

The fact is that it isn't as golden as you think. But you're right, I'm not going to convince you. I've argued with you before about education, to the point that I put you on ignore because you got too "know it all" about my area of expertise. I got over it. Truth is I learn a lot from you. But it's also true that you don't know how to be lose.

By the way, It's 8% plus 8.25% from the district and an additional 2 - 4% from the state.

Madoff, I think got his people 12% returns (supposedly).

MarkInSF says

Voter approved amendments to the constitution with a simple majority vote of the population was not one of the brightest ideas ever conceived.

you can blame us progressives, for that, alas.

http://bluebook.state.or.us/notable/noturen.htm

marcus says

But you’re right, I’m not going to convince you.

marcus, I think you're mostly right on this. I'm just arguing from the objective perspective, ie what's actually going to go down this year.

Pension stuff is extremely technical and variable on assumptions, contribution levels, and actual market performance and my estimates are mostly GIGO (but meant to give a rough estimate, hopefully the errors I made cancelled themselves out).

Overall the CALSTRS fund is basically set up the same as the SSTF, both are scheduled to turn into pay-as-you-go in the 2040 timeframe. Neither are in major crisis, but the optics of a schoolteacher couple retiring with $100,000+/yr in pensions for life after already earning millions of dollars from the system is pretty easy to demagogue.

This probably doesn’t apply to frisbees
How wrong you are Nomo. Didn't you get the memo? Wham-O is moving some manufacturing back the the US. And they're headquartered in the Bay Area. Use your noodle next time; we're movin' on up the value chain.

SF ace says

it is based on highest salary. So even though average is 90K, the salary range over a 35 year period is 30K-150K

Calstrs has a nice brochure out:

http://www.calstrs.com/eNewsletters/RE/Winter11/REwinter11.pdf

saying the average is now $64,156 at age 45 with 11 years of service.

EBGuy says

Wham-O is moving some manufacturing back the the US. And they’re headquartered in the Bay Area. Use your noodle next time; we’re movin’ on up the value chain.

This is good news. Dont care if its frisbees or wafers very job counts.

RayAmerica says

I totally agree. How else will the ideas of the left ever survive

...and if the 'ideas of the right' need to rely on lying in order to gain traction... well, I'm surprised even you and Syndrome don't see the problems in that one, Giggles.

IN related news Canada recently denied Fox a license to broadcast. Canada regulators announced they would reject efforts by Canada's right wing Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, to repeal a law that forbids lying on broadcast news. Canada's Radio Act requires that "a licenser may not broadcast....any false or misleading news."

So.. no lying in news broadcasts, no Fox News in Canada. In the US, no problem at all. Aren't you always complaining about the dumbing down of the US, Ray? Gosh, I wonder where the push for that is coming from?... I love this finale to a recent article on Fox vs. Canada:

"Harper's attempts to make lying legal on Canadian television is a stark admission that right wing political ideology can only dominate national debate through dishonest propaganda. Since corporate profit-taking is not an attractive vessel for populism, a political party or broadcast network that makes itself the tool of corporate and financial elites must lie to make its agenda popular with the public. In the Unites States, Fox News and talk radio, the sock puppets of billionaires and corporate robber barons have become the masters of propaganda and distortion on the public airwaves. Fox News's notoriously biased and dishonest coverage of the Wisconsin's protests is a prime example of the brand of news coverage Canada has smartly avoided."

shrekgrinch says

The main half trillion dollar gap

That actually is just right-wing spin. Look at the summary yourself on page 3:

http://siepr.stanford.edu/system/files/shared/GoingforBroke_pb.pdf

They use a statistical model to project the underfunding, and the $500B+ figure is just the highest one they projected for on the graph, giving it 12% odds. They give the probably of over a $250B shortfall at less than 50%.

And note that the probably of the funds actually showing a surplus are 30ish percent, nearly triple the odds of the $500B shortfall.

Still if it turns out to be $250B, that's would take a nice little bite out of the general budget.

I personally think statistical models for projecting investment growth are mostly bullshit, but that's a whole other topic.

SF ace says

pension is not based on average

But average can be used to understand exactly what a person pays in, and what the state and school district pays in pays in, versus what they take out (which yes, is based on highest salary). That is, if people are interested in actually understanding the approximate value/cost of the pension plan per person.

Troy says

Somebody set us up the bomb.

All your base are belong to us. You are on the way to destruction. Make your time.

Love it.

With 4.10 a gallon today for 87 I think any company that will offer an electric car and an easy way to charge it will own the markets.