patrick.net

Nate Silver has a good analysis. The Tea Party candidate in this race has a history of running as a Democrat, and about a third of his support came from liberals. There was also a Green candidate who got one percent. So it's unlikely this race was actually spoiled. Pretty stunning victory for a race where the Republicans would normally expect to win by 12 points in a neutral political environment with evenly matched candidates.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/25/six-months-after-midterm-disaster-hopeful-signs-for-democrats/

It's a shame that you can't touch health care in this country without the electorate taking you out to the woodshed and beating you senseless. But turnabout is fair play, I suppose.

Two hundred and thirty five members of the House voted for Ryan's bill. You can bet the Democrats are going to hammer them for their support just as mercilessly. The Senate is going to vote on it, too.

Porposing the Medicare voucher plan in the first place was a dumb idea. The Republicans knew full well that it would NEVER get 60 votes in the Senate or be signed into law by Obama.

And it is only going to get worse for the Republicans once Harry Reaid forces the Senate Republicans to vote on the Ryan budget. Scott Brown is running as fast as he can away from it, probably because he is afraid of Elizabeth Warren beating him next year and using his Medicare vote against him.

HousingWatcher says

It cut from Medicare Advantage, which is Medicare in name only. It is made up of private insurers.

ie Medicare Part C, the GOP's gift to the insurance industry when they were in the majority, 1995-2006.

Msilenus writes and says "Two hundred and thirty five members of the House voted for Ryan’s bill. You can bet the Democrats are going to hammer them for their support just as mercilessly. The Senate is going to vote on it, too."

Agreed. Here's what they didn't vote for: They didn't vote to end tax loopholes for corporations. They didn't vote to raise taxes on the rich. They didn't vote to close the tax loopholes which make the rich richer.

The Congressional Budget Office long ago said that after four years of surpluses under Clinton the deficit would be repaid by now. Then came Bush, two wars, $4.35 trillion in new deficits and lower taxes for the rich.

The real point is to hobble the government by talking about spending but not talking about taxes.

Obama or some other politician needs to come 100% clean and explain to Americans where we are and what has to be done.
I still believe the Gang of Six (err, Five) is our best hope; there are still adults in the Senate. If they ever put out a plan, it will be interesting to see if folks in Congress have the guts to vote for it.

And when the Republicans passed Part D, aka the prescription drug plan, they passed it knowing full well tha it contained a doughnut hole that woudl make it hard for peopel to afford drugs on it.

Bill Clinton responds:

WASHINGTON (CNNMoney) -- Bill Clinton had a word of warning on Wednesday for fellow Democrats: Don't get too cocky about voters' rejection of Paul Ryan's Medicare plan.

In a special election for a vacant House seat on Tuesday, a Democrat candidate upset a Republican in a GOP-stronghold in upstate New York.

The race was widely seen as a proxy on Ryan's controversial Republican proposal plan to convert Medicare into a voucher program.

Clinton, speaking at a fiscal summit sponsored by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, said the race showed that voters don't like the Republican plan. But he also told Democrats not to shy away from tackling entitlement programs.

"You shouldn't look at the New York race and think that nobody can do anything to slow Medicare costs," Clinton said.

House budget chief Ryan's proposal would convert Medicare -- the health care program for seniors -- into a voucher program in 2022. Seniors would choose from a Medicare-approved list of private insurance plans. Wealthier seniors would pay more and poorer seniors would get federal subsidies.

Debt ceiling vote will be meaningless

Ryan, who spoke after Clinton at the summit, wasn't asked directly about the New York race. But he did accuse Democrats of trying to use Medicare to scare seniors.

"Democrats are shamelessly demagoging and distorting this," Ryan said. "Trying to scare seniors and (making) these things as political weapons creates political paralysis," he said.

Clinton also weighed in on the most pressing fiscal issue facing policymakers: the debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has said the ceiling, a cap on total federal government debt, must be raised by Aug. 2 to prevent the country from defaulting on its bonds.

The former president said President Obama should consider giving a national address to educate American voters about the consequences of a failure to raise it in time.

"They never lived through it; nobody knows what will happen," Clinton said. Clinton warned that political leaders "can't be paralyzed," and that they must find a bipartisan way to raise the debt limit, even if it's unpopular.

"A lot of the most important things I did were unpopular," Clinton said.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/25/news/economy/bill_clinton/?section=money_latest

Troy says

ie Medicare Part C, the GOP’s gift to the insurance industry when they were in the majority, 1995-2006.

Just to be confusing, my grandmother said she loves medicare - she has medicare advantage and didn't even know it. Now, she has never been the brightest bulb on the bush but I don't think most senior citizens know the difference.

thunderlips11 says

And for the record, most anti-West, anti-Israel terrorism is committed by Sunni Groups, and backed by Saudi Arabians.

Everyone keeps forgetting Saudi Arabia has been the largest source of money for terrorism for at least 25 years. With friends like these.

In fairness, Coburn has at least been willing to take on some special interests, such as ethanol producers.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2011/0524/Taxes-are-off-the-table-GOP-family-feud-over-what-that-means-exactly

Easy for Coburn to oppose ethanol subsidies when his state does not exactly produce ethanol. Where did he vote on oil subsidies? Isn't Oklahoma a major oil producer? So let's see where Coburn stands on oil subsidies, which unlike ehtanol subsidies, affect his state:

Dr. Coburn Calls Big Oil Hearing Unserious and Partisan

http://coburn.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/pressreleases?ContentRecord_id=26c685dd-f28b-4fa8-a304-9322d9164242

In other words, he supports oil subsidies

Housing --

Agreed. But it's a start....

tohit76 flagged this data by Patrick as incorrect:

As of date = 2011-05-22

Apartment number

2 bedrooms

0 bathrooms

Type is SFH

Monthly home owner association fee (HOA) is $0

Square feet is

Estimated rent is $1130

Asking price is $63000

tohit76, please say what part of that data is incorrect.

Patrick, please say why you think that the data is correct.

Troy says

Tea party candidate Jack Davis took 8 percent of the vote.
Man I love the Tea Party. Maybe it’s not a GOP astroturfing but a deep-cover Democrat Party instigation.

Yes, and in this particular case, it was. A Democrat running as Tea Party candidate took 8%. The majority of those votes would have likely gone to the Republican.

What a great flanking approach: Simultaneously attack the Republican position with whatever hyperbole one can (no real criticism here - politics is politics), along with putting up a shill candidate to siphon votes! That's the spirit!

Even if the Tea Party guy did not run, the Republican would have still lost.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/25/six-months-after-midterm-disaster-hopeful-signs-for-democrats/

Most Americans are Socialists and don't realize it. The Tea Party is made up primarily of Socialists.

Chris, you do know that you are a Socialist, right? That's right, you, like everyone else in America, are a Socialist. But don't worry, therer is hope. You can take the Anti Socialism Pledge:

pledge to eliminate all government intervention in my life. I will abstain from the use of and participation in any socialist goods and services including but not limited to the following:

Social Security

Medicare/Medicaid

State Children's Health Insurance Programs (SCHIP)

Police, Fire, and Emergency Services

US Postal Service

Roads and Highways

Air Travel (regulated by the socialist FAA)

The US Railway System

Public Subways and Metro Systems

Public Bus and Lightrail Systems

Rest Areas on Highways

Sidewalks

Public Water and Sewer Services (goodbye socialist toilet, shower, dishwasher, kitchen sink, outdoor hose!)

Public and State Universities and Colleges

Public Primary and Secondary Schools

Sesame Street

Publicly Funded Anti-Drug Use Education for Children

Public Museums

Libraries

Public Parksand Beaches

State and National Parks

Public Zoos

Unemployment Insurance

Municipal Garbage and Recycling Services

Treatment at Any Hospital or Clinic That Ever Received Funding From Local, Stateor Federal Government (pretty much all of them)

Medical Services and Medications That Were Created or Derived From Any Government Grant or Research Funding (again, pretty much all of them)

Socialist Byproducts of Government Investment Such as Duct Tape and Velcro (Nazi-NASA Inventions)

Use of the Internets, email, and networked computers, as the DoD's ARPANET was the basis for subsequent computer networking

Foodstuffs, Meats, Produce and Crops That Were Grown With, Fed With, Raised With or That Contain Inputs From Crops Grown With Government Subsidies

Clothing Made from Crops (e.g. cotton) That Were Grown With or That Contain Inputs From Government Subsidies

If a veteran of the government-run socialist US military, I will forego my VA benefits and insist on paying for my own medical care

I will not tour socialist government buildings like the Capitol in Washington, D.C.

I pledge to never take myself, my family, or my children on a tour of the following types of socialist

locations, including but not limited to:

Smithsonian Museums such as the Air and Space Museum or Museum of American History

The socialist Washington, Lincoln, and Jefferson Monuments

The government-operated Statue of Liberty

The Grand Canyon

The socialist World War II and Vietnam Veterans Memorials

The government-run socialist-propaganda location known as Arlington National Cemetery

will oppose and condemn the government-funded and therefore socialist military of the United States of America.

I will boycott the products of socialist defense contractors such as GE, Lockheed-Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, Raytheon, Humana, FedEx, General Motors, Honeywell, and hundreds of others that are paid by our socialist government to produce goods for our socialist army.

Upon reaching eligible retirement age, I will tear up my socialist Social Security checks.

Upon reaching age 65, I will forego Medicare and pay for my own private health insurance until I die.

To whom do they owe the money? Windex?

FN/FR have to go. It is a giant ponzi scheme designed to benefit the wealthy bankers and builders while screwing the poor and the middle class in the process.

bgamall4 says

NAHB is joining Wells Fargo, the IMF, Bernanke, and NAR

Talk about an axis of evil. Can the Justice League even stand a chance against that magnitude of suckage?

But it's a great time to buy. That's what my Realtor says.

As AF says just abolish the mortgage, until then the evil will keep resurfacing in different ways.

bgamall4 says

Exactly, it is a cabal. The central banks will get their way regardless of whether Fannie or Freddie exist or not, which is why Chris in LA is not really getting this. He has his heart in the right place though.

they will always get their helicopter drops of money, but at least it won't be via screwing people into 30 year indentured servitude in the process.

A lot of our productivity is leveraged on the backs of Chinese and Mexican low-wages, so this is double-counting.

Their cost of labor goes up, our productivity will be negatively impacted as the increased cost of imported capital and intermediate goods reduce our margins.

China does have a coming demographic collapse, though.

vs

Currency strengthening is also problematic. The yuan doubling against the dollar will also double the Chinese nation's resource purchasing power footprint, ie. ceteris paribus they'll be able to import twice the oil they are now for the same cost. This sounds like a supply-shock to me, basically the weakening dollar is going to push up the price we have to pay for oil, proportional to the weakening, if not more.

Higher wages are the silver lining that is necessary to get some balance in this system, though unfortunately for them higher wages are just going to be sucked into higher land values ; )

Unfortunately, China has one big advantage.

Chinese red army can shot the workers if they go on strike. Thus Chinese labor force is more "cooperative" than US.

Human rights is really bad for economy and companies.

human rights are one thing, union thugs killing business is another.

twisted and disgusting, those two have no morals what so ever. Prison is too good for these people, should be flat out taken out back and shot.

ChrisLA says

human rights are one thing, union thugs killing business is another.

Truly these people:

Are much more fearsome than these:

This picture by the way puzzles most Chinese youth of today, so thoroughly has their government acted to erase all distribution of information and images of Tiananmen.

Many companies hire people pretend to be union thugs.

They throw stones at the police during picketing.
Then the police has excuses to arrest everyone.

It is really a dirty world we live in.

US manufacturing will never be competitive with chinese manufacturing, because that's not the bar. Chinese manufacturing is only chosen because it is less expensive than machines. Once chinese manufacturing exceeds the cost of the machines (which are much less expensive than Americans), manufacturing will be done in the US physically, but it won't mean jobs for US workers.

shrekgrinch says

n the end, access to strategic resources will be determined by military power.

ahah aha aha. Shrek told a funny. The Chinese and half the world with them would smash us like a bug if we started enforcing some bullshit pax americana on them.

China and India have 2.5 billion people, 10X our military population.

We need them a lot more than they need us now and if we start fucking with their trade they'll be more than happy to demonstrate it. Ships take years to build and minutes to sink so any military conflict with them will pivot on construction capability. Our oceans protect us but will also greatly limit our long-term reach into Asia. It would be a long and drawn out war but we'd be so totally in the wrong that there would be no way for us to forge any alliance to keep us in the game. Such bullshit would just push us into national irrelevancy, if not utter ruin, like Japan 1945-49.

Medicare is also not an entitlement since retirees pay about $100 per month out of their SS benefits to have access to this health insurance. And it doesn't cover dental and a host of other needs.

mikey says

Medicare is also not an entitlement since retirees pay about $100 per month out of their SS benefits to have access to this health insurance

.... which would cost them at least $500/month more on the open market.

thunderlips11 says

We could fix SS in a heartbeat by applying a 3% SS tax to all income, regardless of source. If people who make $50k/year can pay 15% of their income to SS/MC on top of taxes, somebody making $1M/year should have no problem paying just 3% on top of taxes.

Then when that pile of money runs out, we'll increase the tax. And so on and so on. We can have the longest ponzi scheme in history. Can't wait to start screwing over my great-great-great-grandchildren.

"which would cost them at least $500/month more on the open market."

Possibly. However, Medicaid would be more in keeping with the word entitlement, depending on semantics.
Some folks paid into SS for half a century and must keep paying monthly premiums to have health coverage if they choose Medicare.
Fun fact:
Medicare's drug plan covers Viagra. The plan has a monthly premium also.

thunderlips11 says

By then, the old - young ratio will be normal again. Furthermore, the SS Money was spent on big fat juicy government contracts with Haliburton, ConEd, AT&T, GM, etc. etc. so those who collect big fat dividend checks or profit distributions from those companies are only returning a little bit of what they stole from it with their bribed politicians.

You said something about pushing it off later, then something about big evil corporations. Both points ignore the problem.

thunderlips11 says

I wouldn’t want to live in a country without a basic medical insurance scheme and guaranteed pension for every person.

Everybody just needs more guarantees in life. That's what this govt was made for.

Oh That's a "Job Killer"...

Entitlements = a way to convince people that the money that they have paid into Social Security, and Medicare, actually belong to our Senators and Congress critters pet projects.

Job Killer = A new way to convince the 20% unemployed in this country why the Government refuses to pass any legislation or intact any effective policy that would actually create "JOBS". "That would be a Job killer" well what jobs? All of the jobs in danger of being lost, are already killed, you Sons of Bitches are in charge of creating new Jobs.

Transparency = Opens dialog between Government on the Federal level in closed back door meetings with the Nations corporate Elite.
Anytime "Transparency" has been used, the result was more convolution than ever before. And the Nation as a whole expects that all involved in said meetings, broke every law in the financial regulatory book. And they did, that's why they rush to Vote to retroactively cover their collective asses with in Weeks, making all of the transgressions and laws they broke legal.

Reform = This means, that Corporations have been operating in "Grey" areas, that aren't as productive for what ever reason, that these boon loop holes had previously been. They make issue out them, even though there was no public outcry to do so, as that policy had come to the end of it's productive stream anyway. I mean to say, by then any all damage that could have been done, had already been done, by time our Congress critters are making an issue out of it.
What "REFORM" really serves to do, is open up new Grey areas, that is clearly illegal and Corporations could face prosecution, if they dabble in those areas. So Washington Reforms the Dead horse, carcass that has already been picked to the bone, passing laws to make those practices illegal, while (Now pay attention because this is what "REFORM" is really all about) opening up new ways to fuck and screw people over with even greater impunity than before, in a new revenue stream. See Finance reform, a few pesky outdated financial practices were outlawed, while 10 to 1, even more disastrous if not other wise highly illegal practices are sanctioned.
Like going after a 1.00 fee a bank either may or may not charge you, but then allowing 1,000's in other fees, banks never had the authority to charge before the "REFORM" took place.

America could use a good Book burning long about now.

I'd suggest the Civics, and American Government high school books.
As they are pretty useless about now. And I doubt there's one son of a bitch in Washington that read the Goddamned thing.

state says

Seriously? There are rappers I listen to that occasionally talk about killing cops. There was the Ice-T cop killer episode years ago but the only time you hear about this stuff any more is when Fox news decides it wants to whip up its racist audience

Right.

If Bob Marley was alive and released "I Shot the Sheriff" today, that FoxNews wouldn't be giving it 24-7 outrage coverage and our "moderates" David Brooks and Tom Friedman wouldn't be saying "Freedom of expression is important - but..."

Body Count was - gasp! - 20 years ago already. Shit, I'm an old fart. Great album.

How about Heathers, though...