patrick.net

Well if you're a rich chinese, it certainly makes sense to move down under to Australia vs Palo Alto, CA. The travel is much easier and you have reverse seasons. The Aussie economy is down to 5% unemployment and their digging up lots of raw material fueling the Asian economies. Go figure...

"While debate is healthy, restricting foreign investment will not only affect our real estate market, development industry, housing supply and our economy it may also damage how we are viewed in the world," Mr. Ashley wrote. "Personally, I'd rather live in a place that is envied and sought after by people all over the world."

Clearly Mr. Ashley doesnt know much about Japans import and foreign investment restrictions. Certainly didnt harm them in any way internationally and they have had second largest economy to the US.

Secondly, you dont want price inflation in residential markets no matter how sought out by global buyers, it doesnt work. The cost of doing business (esp. in HighTech) will kill you, and you will not be able to compete in your industry if your carrying high employee costs.

GoldenPimp says

This is not true.
The Mainland Chinese ARE buying properties. They buy by funding money to local resident relatives, buying under their names. Most likely their children.

BS. What is the guarantee that if the property in somebody's name here and will be transferred back to mainland Chinese? Pure BS.

GoldenPimp says

The Mainland Chinese ARE buying properties. They buy by funding money to local resident relatives, buying under their names. Most likely their children.

So now we're talking about things like unexplained funds, money laundering, etc.? Grasping for straws, it seems like.

GoldenPimp says

This is not true.

The Mainland Chinese ARE buying properties. They buy by funding money to local resident relatives, buying under their names. Most likely their children.

Your proof of this is????

Here are the facts on the ground as I see it, happening to be in Vancouver at the moment.

To buy a home in a nice neighborhood in Vancouver will cost you about 1.5 to over 2 million dollars, for what I would cll an "average" house. So this is about 8 thousand a month, give or take, after an an average down payment has been made. Remember that in Canada there are restrictions on what percentage the down payment must be and what maximum percentage of an income can be used to support the mortgage.

To rent a similar home in the same neighborhood will cost about 2.5 to 3.5 thousand a month. Bang.

So 8+ or 2+ per month for the same type of place?

It only makes sense to buy in this environment IF you pay cash AND think the house will appreciate faster, less taxes and insurance etc, than putting the cash into stocks. Which it has been for the past year or more.

No one who is financing a home purchase through a loan should be buying in this environment... comments?

And being here, 'on the ground', and talking to people who are looking and going to open houses, it seems very much that it is indeed foreign buyers, paying in cash, who are driving the market.

I don't know whats up with the Globe, perhaps they have an agenda of some sort, but they also ran an article on Van housing a few months ago where they managed to completely avoid even mentioning Chinese/forgeign buyers.

kentm says

It only makes sense to buy in this environment IF you pay cash AND think the house will appreciate faster, less taxes and insurance etc, than putting the cash into stocks. Which it has been for the past year or more.

No one who is financing a home purchase through a loan should be buying in this environment... comments?

That makes no sense. If it's a bubbly environment, why would you risk your own money instead of Other People's Money? If you want to take advantage of the bubble, wouldn't it be better to use leverage while you can?

And being here, 'on the ground', and talking to people who are looking and going to open houses, it seems very much that it is indeed foreign buyers, paying in cash, who are driving the market.

I've heard this stuff so many times. For example, in SF, I heard anecdotes like: "I went to a condo building's sales open house and all I heard was Chinese and French. By the way, did you see that realtor who priced the place in Euros [sic]?" Please. A few years later, for those buildings, all we see are short sales, foreclosures, and massive losses. We certainly didn't see disproportionate buyers who seemed to have been either Chinese or French or disproportionate buyers who paid cash.

We've all heard all the justifications before, certainly. Oh, these people are so rich that they don't care if prices drop by $500K. They're all money laundering by giving it to their Canadian resident kids. These rumors fly because good data on these things is hard to come by, and a lot of the people who have data are salesmen who are doing everything they can to hide it. Trend articles tend to stoke the fire.

I'll believe it when I see it. Maybe this time it's different.

corntrollio says

That makes no sense. If it's a bubbly environment, why would you risk your own money instead of Other People's Money? If you want to take advantage of the bubble, wouldn't it be better to use leverage while you can?

Its the only reason I could think of... better to get the most out of it... put your money into the house thats rising fast and then sell it off if things start looking down and go back into stocks...

For one thing, in Canada, you can't into a housing market the same way you could in the states - with almost NONE of your own money. Local laws require a decent down payment, and then that the mortgage be supported by a certain level of income, ie only a certain percentage of your income can go toward the mortgage.

So you think it IS local buyers who are trying to ride the wave?

kentm says

For one thing, in Canada, you can't into a housing market the same way you could in the states - with almost NONE of your own money. Local laws require a decent down payment, and then that the mortgage be supported by a certain level of income, ie only a certain percentage of your income can go toward the mortgage.

I not familiar with local laws in BC that would require a particular down payment or income ratio, but that wasn't my impression of how the CMHC works for mortgage insurance -- certainly lower down payments are permitted because you can get CMHC insurance for them:

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/co/moloin/moloin_003.cfm

You have to put at least 5% down and have a PITH (principal, interest, tax, and heating vs. PITI, I for insurance, in the US) ratio to income of 32% and an overall debt to income ratio of 40%.

Traditional 20% down fixed mortgages in the U.S. require a 28/36 ratio.

Even under the reforms proposed last year to cool down the housing market, I don't see too much deviation from this except that non-owner occupied is required to have 20% down:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2010/04/19/mortgage-rules-april-19.html

Can you give us a source for those local laws?

It can't be the mainland because of some other reasons as well. Socially in China (this might open a can of worms here) couples have a home BEFORE getting married. Actually it used to attract women.
http://articles.latimes.com/2010/jun/21/business/la-fi-china-bachelor-20100621

So who in their right mind would buy a home to attract a women if they had to get on a plane for 12 hours to see it? Probably not...

I've heard arguments of immigrants paying for homes with significant down payments in cash. This is explained due to the fact that not all currencies are stable, not all countries have banking insurance and not all investment opportunities exist globally. It also reminds me of selling online which is largely dependent on credit cards (visa/mastercard/amex/discover/jcb) and bank accounts (pay pal). Without access to credit cards or banks you are sol.

those myths have been in many places, they just sound really stupid so probably which is why they do not catch on.

I think it's certain group that likes to unload crapy assets start spreading rumors in order to gain advantage. It's all too common now.

EMan says

those myths have been in many places

Could be. But not in The Fortress. This is the Bay Area. It is different this time, and it is different here.

EMan says

I think it's certain group that likes to unload crapy assets start spreading rumors in order to gain advantage. It's all too common now.

Yeah, if you can gin up a rumor that the Chinese are going to buy every piece of property in existence in Vancouver, you may be able to encourage people who are sitting on the fence to "buy now or get priced out forever." Then you might also convince the Chinese to act on a herd mentality and buy low quality assets that will underperform at a terrible price. Why do people fall for this stuff?

It never surprises me when trend article writers can find stupid people to quote -- e.g. when an article about the super-conforming limit in the U.S. going from $729K in some expensive markets to $625K or lower, you can always find some moron who says that he/she wants to take advantage of his/her purchasing power before it's too late. As if that half percent extra for a jumbo will really matter that much when interest rates are already too low and when prices will commensurately have to adjust lower to the new environment.

corntrollio says

You have to put at least 5% down and have a PITH (principal, interest, tax, and heating vs. PITI, I for insurance, in the US) ratio to income of 32% and an overall debt to income ratio of 40%.

I think thats basically it... There was a time in the states when a mortgage could be had for zero down...

Whatever is driving the buying, I'd be interested to hear comments on the fact of the disparity between the rent/buy costs. Did it ever get that crazy in the states, where renting a house costs in some cases less than a third of what it takes to buy it?

GoldenPimp says

The Mainland Chinese ARE buying properties. They buy by funding money to local resident relatives, buying under their names. Most likely their children.

Forward to IRS and see how that ends! Might have to reopen Alcatraz Island to handle the prison term/deportation...

IRS could have a bonanza $$$$ in Cupertino/PA...

Good thing for them canada is another country then.

And technically that would be "元元元元"...

Funny, I'm getting the impression from some of you that the idea of buyers coming in from another country is akin to a conspiracy theory on par with atilla the Hun shot JFK... Though the substance of the replies amounts about "snort, snort, giggle...". Are any of you from Vancouver?

yuan (*4)?

kentm says

Good thing for them canada is another country then.

And technically that would be "元元元元"...

Funny, I'm getting the impression from some of you that the idea of buyers coming in from another country is akin to a conspiracy theory on par with atilla the Hun shot JFK... Though the substance of the replies amounts about "snort, snort, giggle...". Are any of you from Vancouver?

You do understand what the word "proof" means, correct?

dodgerfanjohn says

You do understand what the word "proof" means, correct?

go on...

American in Japan says

yuan (*4)?

just being silly, responding to thomas...

thomas.wong1986 says

IRS could have a bonanza $$$$ in Cupertino/PA...

adding this:

http://www.visabureau.com/canada/investor/news/19-08-2010/chinese-now-top-seekers-of-canadian-investor-immigration.aspx

and this

http://www.migrationexpert.ca/visa/canadian_immigration_news/2011/jun/0/749/canadian_immigration_attracted_more_wealthy_chinese_investors

Just asking.

So, any of you from Vancouver?

Yes, investor visas are available in plenty of countries, and the amount is dependent on the country.

Of course, the investor visa story that kentm gives doesn't square with GoldenPimp's story at all.

I'm not sure what the source is of those links that kentm provided with respect to the numbers, but it's worth noting that those numbers are given by organizations seeking to provide services to people looking to emigrate to Canada. Upon Googling, you can see there are plenty of non-registered/non-accredited "consultants" that purport to help people emigrate to Canada on investor visas, and how some of them are less than ethical.

Yes, thats good point, those are business sites. Here's a link to the CAN census info, though I don't know how much I want to bother wading through it at the moment or how specific it'll get...

My info comes from friends who live and send kids to school in the area, and others who are journalists in the area who have researched the issue...

But at this point I should probably just say that I don't really care WHERE the money comes from, whether its from China or Mars - though of course knowing that would help to understand the driving forces... What I am interested in learning more about is the mentality that drives buying a home in area where it costs 3000/mo to rent but 8000+/mo to buy.

kentm says

What I am interested in learning more about is the mentality that drives buying a home in area where it costs 3000/mo to rent but 8000+/mo to buy.

Well, to some extent that happened in parts of the Bay Area during the recent boom in the U.S. Bubble mentality can drive things like this. It's usually not sustainable because the long-term costs of housing in an area should be correlated to income in that area. Outside money upsets this curve, as did VC/dotcom money, but it can't do so forever.

corntrollio says

It's usually not sustainable because the long-term costs of housing in an area should be correlated to income in that area. Outside money upsets this curve, as did VC/dotcom money, but it can't do so forever.

And creates higher than normal cost of maintaining industries in the region. Which leads to bleeding jobs. Not good in the long run.

Alright guys, whatever the reasoning or wherever the burden of proof - I'm not going to go through a long process to support the statement - the fact is that the increase in property values in Vancouver canada is being fueled by buyers coming in from china. having been here visiting for over a month I can state that with certainty. This is after conversations with friends who are journalists, friends who live in the areas, a couple of realtors and what I can see myself.

If anyone has any info to the opposite then I'd love to hear it, but if the comment is only going to be "that's unlikely" or some such then there's no need...

It's the same crap down here is South Florida.

Yes, there are a few South American Robber Barons who buy some of the condos, but they are still not even 1-2% of all buyers.

You'd never know that from the way Realwhores and the Media talk about it though, you'd think that half of all condos sold went to rich Criollos.

thunderlips11 says

Yes, there are a few South American Robber Barons who buy some of the condos, but they are still not even 1-2% of all buyers.

A small number of buyers can result in an increase in property values because the real estate market is so illiquid and transactions happen on the margins, but that also means the market can drop rapidly too.

"I can state that with certainty."

Yeah, everyone says that. I heard the same thing in San Francisco -- blah blah, Chinese and Europeans are buying these condos. Fast forward 4 years later, and it's mostly Americans being foreclosed on. All this has happened before. All this will happen again.

I live in SF and I never had the impression ever that the market there or in most evey other US area was driven by foreign input. I think it was an accepted fact that cheap and shoddy loans were the driving force behind mostly local buyers and investors. Vancouver is a very different thing.

Why are you so seemingly resistant to the idea? Do you own property in Vancouver?

And anyway, if rich foreigners did purchase property in SF they're not likely to show up in the foreclosure stats, can you find some other metric to base your 'gut feeling' on?

kentm says

I live in SF and I never had the impression ever that the market there or in most evey other US area was driven by foreign input.

The market is not *in fact* driven by foreign input, but people made the same claims about San Francisco with respect to foreign money during the boom here, as they are now making about Vancouver. I'm not saying foreigner buyers *did* purchase here, but rather that everyone and their mother claimed that foreign buyers purchased here. Search "foreign buyer" or "rich foreigner" on a site like SocketSite -- here is just a sample, and if you look closely at 2007 threads, you will probably find more:

Here's a whole thread about it:

Considering that SF was already much cheaper than London, Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo, Shanghai and Beijing, and now the dollar has taken a nosedive, executives in these places, especially from Asia, can buy prime condos in SF for less than half what they would pay at home.

Here's someone making a prediction about 2008 in 2007:

2008: Prices start to fall in January in some established neighborhoods. The dollar also continues its plunge. Developers start exclusively advertising their properties in Europe and Asia (as has happened with many developments in NYC). Europeans and Asians flood the market with cash because "we can buy seven times as much property here as we can in . Also, this is one of the few American cities that we love to visit, because of the beauty, weather, and political views."

Another prediction:

Sales will stagnate and prices in all areas begin to fall slightly. Condo developments, as well as realty firms dealing in desirable neighborhoods will begin heavily advertising in Europe and Asia. Europeans and Asians will see the prices, and in conjunction with the plummeting dollar, see places that are pennies on the dollar to vacation places in their areas. The market will begin to flood with euros (and other currencies) which will stop price declines in all but the least desirable areas.

In two years, prices in SF will be significantly higher than SM and SC counties (which are about the same as SF now) because those counties don't have the same international appeal that SF does. SF will become more and more a place for rich young dual incomers, retired seniors, and foreign tourists looking for a vacation home.

From the same thread:

Look at ORH/Infinity already - something like 25% foreigners with very little advertising in those places. Toss some adveritising in Sky Mall about places in SF going for less than a million euros and phones will begin to ring. Doesn't have to be that many - the market in SF is so small that even 300 Europeans looking to buy would make a huge impact.

Why? Because SF is a bargain -- it's all the same justifications:

Yes San Francisco is a bargain compared with many places in the world. And yes there are foreign investors who buy here because prices per square foot are cheap and the exchange rates make it even more desirable.

Throw in Warren Buffett and you have a thesis:

Buffet and Gates saw this coming and dumped dollars for Euros almost two years ago. I think with the dollar continuing to fall, it makes real estate an ever safer investment and I would imagine foreign investors will enter the California market like they did in the early 90's after the last downturn.

More predictions, including who's moving out:

What is interesting is who is moving in, and who is moving out. I believe many with real wealth are leaving the Bay Area while those coming in are foreign born moving here to create wealth.

It's affordable!:

There are also plenty of foreign buyers who can afford to have 2nd homes in cities like SF or NY given the weakness of the US dollar compared to most foreign currencies. I think the prices here are ridiculous, but also doubt they'll drop much, if at all, from where they are now. This is a lovely area to live in, and there is just too much demand for housing, and interest rates are still incredibly low.

What's hilarious is that people were still insisting this in 2009 as the market kept dropping and dropping:

One Rincon Hill is a "luxury" condo tower -- you can see it when approaching the Bay Bridge:

My colleague lives in One Rincon Hill. As a condo owner and a resident, he was invited to the grand opening cocktail party. He was so shocked to see most of the guests are Chinese. I asked him if they are Chinese living in US(Chinese American). He said that they are all from Taiwan, Hongkong, and China and spoke no English at all. (My colleague is Chinese American and speaks Chinese as well). According to my colleague, these Chinese people are renting out their units.

Also on the same thread:

I think the point is that its quite possible that whatever market currently exists for luxury condos in downtown SF, that its primarily a speculative one driven by foreign buyers with cash on hand, and not by any fundamental homeownership demand.

Infinity is also a "luxury" condo tower -- two, actually:

As for foreign buyers, On my floor there are residents from Shanghai, France, and Iran who never seem to be here. Three other neighbors, I've never seen at all.

Still churning about "decoupling":

Foreign buyers, particularly Chinese, will be unaffected by the economy in the United States and will continue to want to own property here.

Meanwhile, the foreclosures in these overpriced "luxury" condo buildings keep increasing... People still insist this now with respect to Peninsula housing markets, even though statistics show that a huge percentages of Asians were here before 1990 and certainly before 2000.

They seemed to left out the Japanese buyers...
No wait, they got burned losing billions.. yes billions in RE.

thomas.wong1986 says

losing billions..

So, after the Chinese and Indians are done loosing theirs who is next?

Contrillo, I agree the sf market wasn't foreign driven.

Vancouver on the other hand seems to be very much so. So now then my concern is kind of with 'where' the money comes from because then my question is "IS it indeed different this time?", is the investment going to stop and if so. When?

Of course SF isn't. Wealthy foreigners covet the "public" school elite API scores in The Fortresses along the west coast. SF doesn't offer that.

kentm says

So now then my concern is kind of with 'where' the money comes from because then my question is "IS it indeed different this time?", is the investment going to stop and if so. When?

End of the day, many may well be just a bunch of common criminals. If someone is moving over $5,000 USD out of China, there is something funny going on.

kentm says

Contrillo, I agree the sf market wasn't foreign driven.

Vancouver on the other hand seems to be very much so.

Based on what? A few realtors saying so with little statistical support and inconsistent justifications? That's what happened in SF too.

What you're describing is looking at SF in hindsight and seeing that there weren't that many foreigners after all despite the huge claims and comparing it to the huge claims currently made for Vancouver. I gave you the claims about SF in 2007 -- contemporaneous claims. The claims turned out not to be true; why are these claims about Vancouver more likely to be true?

The right question is "is it indeed different this time?" but not in the way you're asking. The real question is whether the claims are true. Statistics say no and indicate a bubble.