patrick.net

Vicente says

On my last trip East I had to listen to people complaining about ObamaCare and out-of-control taxes, who have serious medical conditions and have been through bankruptcy and depend on various government programs.

The best are the grandmas, most of whom are entirely dependent on Social Security and Medicare. They are non-homeless largely because of government. Even if they own their own house, they got it through massive government subsidies into the housing market.

shrekgrinch says

Which means he fears the McConnell plan more so than the "ObamaCare for tax rises" plan.

Why is the McConnell plan good? I'm not asking why anyone supports or rejects it (or even who does), but rather a cohesive argument about why the McConnell plan makes sense and is good policy for America. Why is it better than alternatives which have been proposed, and why is it better than alternatives which have not yet been proposed? Please be specific.

shrekgrinch says

Which is not how Social Security works. You are paying for transfer payments today (to today's retirees and, until recently, extra to the government to blow how it saw fit). It's PAYGO, not savings.

shrekgrinch says

Yes, and the checks from SS are paid for from those SSA bonds that are to be redeemed...unless Obama deliberately redirects it elsewhere.

These two comments are inconsistent. You are both saying there is no savings and yet saying the SSA bonds exist. It's one or the other, not both. You are just throwing out talking points without caring whether they are mutually exclusive or not.

marcus says

I saw Ann Coulter on Real Time a few weeks ago, and she so much as said, social security is broke. She was referring to the fact that social security recently went to where annual outlays are greater then revenues from FICA taxes.

Is that actually true? My impression was that payouts exceeded amounts paid in (which might be all Coulter is saying), but that the trust was still getting bigger because of interest. Check out this report from the SSA located at http://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/index.html -- interest income on the trust still keeps the fund in balance until 2022, and then it will draw into the trust:

Social Security expenditures exceeded the program’s non-interest income in 2010 for the first time since 1983. The $49 billion deficit last year (excluding interest income) and $46 billion projected deficit in 2011 are in large part due to the weakened economy and to downward income adjustments that correct for excess payroll tax revenue credited to the trust funds in earlier years. This deficit is expected to shrink to about $20 billion for years 2012-2014 as the economy strengthens. After 2014, cash deficits are expected to grow rapidly as the number of beneficiaries continues to grow at a substantially faster rate than the number of covered workers. Through 2022, the annual cash deficits will be made up by redeeming trust fund assets from the General Fund of the Treasury. Because these redemptions will be less than interest earnings, trust fund balances will continue to grow. After 2022, trust fund assets will be redeemed in amounts that exceed interest earnings until trust fund reserves are exhausted in 2036, one year earlier than was projected last year. Thereafter, tax income would be sufficient to pay only about three-quarters of scheduled benefits through 2085.

In addition, note that these are long-term projections, and even a small change in initial assumptions could have a huge change in the calculations. In addition, if small changes are made -- e.g. retirement ages are slowly bumped up, or higher FICA taxes are paid -- then this could change as well.

The other thing to note is that the payouts have exceeded amounts coming in before during recessions, but only on rare occasions. For the almost all years, payouts have been less than amounts coming in.

Is there a link anywhere to proposed plans? Republicans promised to have their plans posted online for at least 3 days before they can vote. That was a promise to American people.

MY point was that Republicans are refusing to raise the debt ceiling to pay for bills they have already passed. Basically they spent the money, now they are refusing to finance their spending. It's idiotic.

A fifth of the Congress is new and that's just the GOP members. A tenth of the Senate is new and that's just the GOP too.

Are you surprised it's difficult to whip them into voting for spending that has not been passed by Congress in over 600 days?

Once again, you demonstrate how weak your grasp of the facts is.

She called Social Security and Medicare textbook ponzi schemes.

They are. Ask their architects. They knew exactly what they were creating. They guessed that population growth would continue and the job creation would trail just behind it.

They calculated poorly.

wtfcapinv says

They are. Ask their architects.

Social Security is not a "textbook Ponzi scheme" unless you have a textbook that defines it as "anything I damn well want to call a Ponzi". GOTP only reveal what complete flipping illiterate morons they are, too lazy to pick up a book and too dishonest to back down when they are shown how they are wrong.

Ponzi has a clear definition with several specifics among them it's secretive and it's marketed as an insider investment scheme. Is Social Security a limited time offer and only because you happen to have the right friends? Does it refer to itself as a clever insider investment scheme, and say it's purchasing stamps or securities that will appreciate 500% overnight meanwhile doing nothing of the sort? Or does it say it's an INSURANCE program like it's right in the flipping name OASDI (Old Age &* Survivors Disability Insurance).

The people in my office who call it a Ponzi make it easy to identify the slow witted.

They blink like my 3-year old does when he clearly doesn't understand the explanation, then repeat "well it looks like a Ponzi to me".

Social Security has a demographics bump to which there is an easy solution, just use the GOTP Death Panels to terminate enough Baby Boomers among the elderly and infirm before they over-collect to balance it out until the bump passes. There is no new baby boom so far to cause this problem again.

wtfcapinv says

She called Social Security and Medicare textbook ponzi schemes.

They are. Ask their architects. They knew exactly what they were creating. They guessed that population growth would continue and the job creation would trail just behind it.

They calculated poorly.

That's not how this works. Social Security is a taxation system based on forced savings, not a Ponzi Scheme. For the vast majority of years, it has produced a significant surplus. You're just looking at things in hindsight. I doubt you would have said 20 years ago, that Social Security is genius because it worked quite successfully for the previous 50+ years.

When Social Security was passed, people didn't live as long, for one thing. The Baby Boomer generation is another demographic factor that has affected payouts. It is politicians' unwillingness to think about these issues that has caused any potential crisis. We could quite easily solve any issues by raising retirement ages or raising the cap on taxes slightly. It has been done before.

What really happened is that WE as the continuing persons did not properly adapt the program to our changing population. It's misguided to think that the same program can apply for 70+ years without change. You're extremely naive if you think this is a flaw in the program itself. You probably can't even explain the correlation between payments and benefits -- which is fine, because most people can't. But if you look at the economic substance, it is not in itself a Ponzi scheme by the definitions of a Ponzi scheme.

Geithner has been lying the whole time and he knows it. He's a political appointee that serves at the pleasure of the President. The President can fire him any time he wants. Ergo, Timmy's lies are adopted by the President.

If it's Dow Crash Day on August 3rd, will you and Fox Business be celebrating? Or apologizing for how completely wrong you were?

I guess Regan was a liar too.

“The full consequences of a default – or even the serious prospect of default – by the United States are impossible to predict and awesome to contemplate. Denigration of the full faith and credit of the United States would have substantial effects on the domestic financial markets and the value of the dollar.”

--Ronald Reagan, 1983

I would not hold my breath waiting for Republicans to apologize. If there is a default, they will just blame Obama for not supporting their silly "Cut, Cap, and Balance" act. Of course, if Obama came out tomorrow in support of cut, cap, and balance, the Republicans would immediately oppose uit.

shrekgrinch says

If it weren't for FOX, we probably would never know of this total bullshit game Obambi is playing on the public. That's the real reason why Libruhls hate FOX so much.

That crazy kid! Where does he get those ideas?

IMF chief urges US to raise borrowing limit
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/IMF-chief-urges-US-to-raise-apf-1034813129.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

"WASHINGTON (AP) -- The impact of a failure to raise the U.S. borrowing limit could extend beyond America's borders and damage the global economy, the chief of the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday."

Oh. There.

As for the other thing, I believe your original discussion point was angled toward questioning the veracity of MediaMatters in direct comparison to Fox, not to how accurately they repeat a particular quote. And further, the shallow point was made within a thread whose entire theme was that Fox did little more than repeat talking points and quotes.

Again, honestly man, I don't know why you even bother trying.

It is only about one thing: the Tea Partiers who elected them cannot stand having a black president. Never mind that he's as white as he his black. They cannot stand it, even if they bring on something that will hurt them, they don't care. Not unlike Southerners provocation at Ft. Sumpter, Nazi sympathizers in early 1930's Weimar.

Rupert Murdoch must be turning over in his... hyperbolic chamber.

General poll data like this is worthless. It's a news organization trying to pump and dump a dead day of news.

But it sometimes supplies degenerates with some circle jerk material.

Back to batin'!

http://nationaljournal.com/columns/against-the-grain/obama-s-battleground-state-blues-20110726

Obama’s Battleground-State Blues
The president’s national poll numbers aren’t good, but they’re worse in battleground states.

The race for president isn’t a national contest. It’s a state-by-state battle to cobble an electoral vote majority. So while the national polls are useful in gauging the president’s popularity, the more instructive numbers are those from the battlegrounds.

Those polls are even more ominous for the president: In every reputable battleground state poll conducted over the past month, Obama’s support is weak. In most of them, he trails Republican front-runner Mitt Romney. For all the talk of a closely fought 2012 election, if Obama can’t turn around his fortunes in states such as Michigan and New Hampshire, next year’s presidential election could end up being a GOP landslide.

In Michigan, a reliably Democratic state that Obama carried with 57 percent of the vote, an EPIC-MRA poll conducted July 9-11 finds him trailing Romney, 46 percent to 42 percent.

In Iowa, where Republican presidential contenders are getting in their early licks against the president, his approval has taken a hit. In a Mason-Dixon poll conducted for a liberal-leaning group, Romney held a lead of 42 percent to 39 percent over the president

The July Granite State Poll pegs the president’s approval at 46 percent among New Hampshire voters, with 49 percent disapproving. A separate robo-poll conducted this month by Democratic-aligned Public Policy Polling shows him trailing Romney in the state, 46 percent to 44 percent.

If Obama is struggling in the Democratic-friendly confines of Michigan and Pennsylvania (as recent polls have indicated), it’s hard to see him over-performing again in more-traditional battlegrounds such as Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia.

Darky or Mormon ?

It is a quandary wonder which way the NASCAR demographic will go,

According to all of the polls I have seen, Obama would beat all of the declared candidates in their HOME STATE. Ouch, that has got to hurt. Romney would lose Mass. Pawlenty and Bachmann would lose Minnesota. And although they are not running, Palin would lose Alaska and Christie would lose New Jersey. Only Gary Johnson would win his home state. I will wait while you Google his name to find out who the heck he is.

Vicente says

Darky or Mormon ?

It is a quandary

Ask it a different way (in the minds of our Tea Partiers) : "Muslim or Mormon?"

WHy is everyone assuming Romney is going to be the nominee? I really don't see that happening since he is Mormon and supported ObamaCare before he opposed it.

Watcher, I'm not assuming it.

The list of folks they don't hate is probably shorter than the list of those they do hate.

I don't really see much interesting in Republican party. Ron Paul was the only interesting candidate to me, and it doesn't look like he will get the nomination.

Tea party at least in CA has been incredibly dormant.

2016 or so will be more interesting hopefully.

showing a proposed bill to a very influential public speaker is a very very very very far cry from taking marching orders from one.

EncinoMan says

Tea party at least in CA has been incredibly dormant

True, but not some of the sympathies. Just ask the no on prop-8 folks.

The divide between Northern and Southern California is a phoney construct of Bay Area news media types' envy that they are not working in the biggest media market. The real divide is between Left Coast California and The Rest of California. If you look at the election maps, takeaway the Liberal Left Coast and the district in Sac with economy mainly driven by state tax receipts, and you will see nearly solid red.

Probably the Tea Party doesn't have the appeal in Red California because of the racism element of the Tea Party. But some of the sympathies are there, latent for a non-racist Tea Party movement. Besides voting for McCain/Palin, prop-8, GW Bush, etc., Red Californians are doing something else, too: unlike Cool and HIp Liberal Left Coasters who think children are too just too icky-poo for them to "do the kid thing", Red Californians are minting new voters.

It is only a matter of time before we're in the "red" column.

bdrasin says

But he'd have no chance in the Republican primary if he ran on his actual record

You act like a voting record really matters.

Truthiness does not require boring things like remembering what happened yesterday. All you need to remember is what Fox News is telling you TODAY. If he gets the nod the troops will rally behind him and all previous offenses will have never existed.

Vicente says

bdrasin says

But he'd have no chance in the Republican primary if he ran on his actual record

You act like a voting record really matters.

Truthiness does not require boring things like remembering what happened yesterday. All you need to remember is what Fox News is telling you TODAY. If he gets the nod the troops will rally behind him and all previous offenses will have never existed.

Well, thats his game plan apparently. We'll see how well that works.

Sybrib says

It is only a matter of time before we're in the "red" column.

Yep, California is closer to being a red state that I think a lot of people realize. After all Regan was a Californian.

Sybrib says

It is only a matter of time before we're in the "red" column.

Really? Possible, but I'd like to see the data.

I did find this:

bdrasin says

hell, I might have even voted for him if he hadn't disowned virtually his whole political legacy in a mad dash to the right.

This is what really disappointed me about McCain. I may have voted for him if he, but he could not fall over fast enough presenting his ass in the air for FOX's pleasure. That of course goes hand-in-hand with choosing Palin as a running mate.

With Romney though, I don't think I can get over the fact that he wears magic underwear. Sure, a lot of people have some pretty nutty beliefs, but I just can't imagine a scenario where having the leader of the free world thinking that his underpants have magical powers is a good thing.

Vicente says

Truthiness does not require boring things like remembering what happened yesterday. All you need to remember is what Fox News is telling you TODAY. If he gets the nod the troops will rally behind him and all previous offenses will have never existed.

While this is in general totally true, I think that a lot of the core evangelical troops are still going to have a big problem with him being that anti-christ.

leoj707 says

core evangelical troops

Better dead than Red.

Better a WHITE Mormon than a .........

Vicente says

leoj707 says

core evangelical troops

Better dead than Red.

Better a WHITE Mormon than a ....

“Eagles are dandified vultures” - Teddy Roosevelt

Perhaps for some, but others think more like this:
http://www.patheos.com/Resources/Additional-Resources/Vote-for-Romney-Is-a-Vote-for-the-LDS-Church-Warren-Cole-Smith-05-24-2011.html

I think they are going to try like hell to prevent him from getting the nomination. If he does get the nomination I don't think evangelicals are going to be voting for Obama, but there will be a lot less votes/support for Romney.

Sure, a lot of people have some pretty nutty beliefs, but I just can't imagine a scenario where having the leader of the free world thinking that his underpants have magical powers is a good thing.

And the heavens will part...and the President will use his pretend powers again and again.

Yes we can. With other people's money.

Um, you don't get it. If you're in West Virginia (many other rural states as well), places like Charleston ARE the big, bad urban areas.

Republicans are imploding. McCain just woke up from a nap and called members of party of falsely raising expectations and acting "bizarre". Drudge has been reduced to whining that Obama doesn't have a plan. Speaker Boner has turned to Rush Limbaugh in desperation.

Obama is going to get on TV and invoke the 14th Amendment while saying "I told you not to call my bluff". He will then tell the American people that he supports a Balanced Budget Amendment that does not allow any cuts to entitlements and mandates tax increases on the rich if the budget isn't passed. He will stake his campaign on a Raise Jobs and Revenues Balanced Budget Amendment.

California becoming a red state? Yeah, good luck with that. Virtually all of the GOP candidates in CA in 2010 got their butts kicked... Whitman, Fiorina, etc. And the GOP just lost the special election the other week.

Oh no you didn't!

Hidden fees. High fees have been a longstanding concern about the Chilean system. Due to lack of competition among private-sector money managers that participate in the system, these management companies' profits have been much larger than profit margins in other sectors of Chile’s financial services industry, wrote U.S. Social Security Administration researcher Barbara E. Kritzer in one paper.

Though the proportion of Chileans participating in the system has varied over time, the percentage has hovered around two-thirds, a rate similar to under the pre-1981 system. This is clearly less than the nearly universal coverage provided by the U.S. Social Security system.

The ad does have a point that the Chilean system, at least if it's implemented without major differences, would likely be seen by most Americans as inferior to Social Security. The size of the coverage gaps in Chile's system, while understandable given Chile's economic situation, would be unacceptable to many, if not most, Americans.p>