patrick.net

With home prices falling and historically only providing a rather modest return (inflation), I seriously don't understand the investor mentality. You're buying a depreciating asset that costs serious time and money to maintain. Most other investments don't require anywhere near that type of maintenance and have higher returns.

I STILL maintain there's a real estate investment bubble that is going to pop just as soon as those with the cash realize RE is not a good investment (relative to other options) and they start putting their money elsewhere.

Steer clear of termites, that whole are is probably infested, and they will come back, don't give the realtor hints on your finances, just say it's covered or show them the paperwork you get from the bank that shows how much you can borrow.

If your staying where your at, definitely keep looking at other places, and keep saving your money.

Don't make the same mistake I did and buy junk.. Don't be afraid to rehash/rethink what you really want, and need, etc.

Your going to have to put with a realtor no matter what, don't let them stress you out, let them do all the flipflam talking and sometimes, not very often, you can learn a little something from them.

joshuatrio says

It would rent for an easy $1500-1700.

All of that work for $150 a month profit, that's if nothing goes wrong.

clambo says

Here's where I looked:

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3080-Crumpton-Ln-UNIT-8-Marina-CA-93933/19357341_zpid/

The listing agent is too lazy to take some real photos? Instead, the Realtor uses Google street view.

A quality RE professional for sure.

joshuatrio says

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3080-Crumpton-Ln-UNIT-8-Marina-CA-93933/19357341_zpid/

If it's a home for you to live in, you may as well try your luck with a low offer for one of the houses in Marina that is in the 250-275k range (or wait and save). They look a much better deal to me and prices still seem to be moving (slowly) down.

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero says

There were never any offers.

Be sure to call the abutting neighbors to this shit house and tell them the thing is a termite nest and should be burned to the ground.

Then call the realfucktard and ask what she did that was so impressive that her pimp let her keep his car.

Can I sign up for your newsletter, good sir? :)

Every time I open a thread I immediately look for your post.

Many thanks.

Rents are going to go down, too. Hold onto cash for a couple more years.

That dump will ultimately sell for 85K, if they're lucky.

karen says

That dump will ultimately sell for 85K, if they're lucky.

Then you don't know the market in this part of the world.

"The difference in 'number of offers' doesnt mean they are lying people will normally call the listing agent and say 'im gonna submit an offer tomorrow' " If someone might submit an offer tomorrow that doesn't count as an offer. An "offer" has a specific legal description in contract law. In general I have discovered it is best to assume that everything the realtwhore says is a lie. I have dealt with dozens of people in the real estate "profession" over the past 25 years and cannot think of one of them who has not made an effort to misrepresent something, hide key information, lie about submitting an offer , lie about other offers or otherwise lie in an effort to make the sale. In at least 2 cases the facts being withheld were that the property in question was ineligible for a building permit, meaning that if I had bought it based on the agents verbal representation I would have owned a $100K plus vacant lot that I could not build a house on. There was also the lakefront property that did not actually reach the lake. The Realt$#@% spent a lot of time describing where I could build a dock but failed to mention that was someone elses back yard. The fact is you can do better at finding an buying property without them because they will not show you the good stuff. Think about it. If a property is listed and offered by a Realt$#@* it means that they have already passed on the opportunity to buy it themselves at a discount (their commission) to what they want you to pay.

Salespeople are always going to do what salespeople do whether it's a used car or a home.

Realtors are doing whats best for buyers or even for the sellers either really, they're trying to maximize their own benefit so when you're a potential buyer you have to look at everybody else in the transaction with a jaundiced eye.

"I politely said "we will not be financing - if we make an offer, it will be all cash."

A "seasoned" agent would have inquired about "all cash" as to"you have $160,000 sitting in a checking or savings account today"? I would have then suggested looking at a $320,000 with 50% down since I would make twice the commission then on a $160,000 house. Sounds like the agent wasn't prepared to work with an investor

clambo says

You could buy vanguard high yield corporate fund which is paying about 7%.
$933/month wired into your checking account.

Clambo, do you do this yourself?

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero says

It's called fraud. Call the police and ask for these two to be arrested for felony misrepresentation, convicted and stuffed into a supermax for 10-40 years.

joshuatrio says

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero says

NOT THAT FAST! They must be waterboarded and shipped to YEMEN for some additional "training" to make them better agents.

There were never any offers.

I'm inclined to side with this opinion.

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero says

Then call the realfucktard and ask what she did that was so impressive that her pimp let her keep his car.

Marry me!

jvolstad says

joshuatrio says

The agent who showed us the property, easily could have been my mother (she had like 30 years on me), but spoke down to me as if she had the ball in her court. What was even funnier was that she drove up in her decked out Cadillac ... 22" chrome ghetto wheels....

What happened to all the hot young female Realtards? I want to get a Bl.w J.b at closing from a hottie.

They are waiting n line at the VD clinic for their HIV tests.

Malkovich says

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero says

There were never any offers.

Be sure to call the abutting neighbors to this shit house and tell them the thing is a termite nest and should be burned to the ground.

Then call the realfucktard and ask what she did that was so impressive that her pimp let her keep his car.

Can I sign up for your newsletter, good sir? :)

Every time I open a thread I immediately look for your post.

Many thanks.

ME THREE...! Realtards= swamp gas

ok now it sounds like these people are liars.

Its to be expected at every turn in every business I suppose.

Your only weapon is to bribe them (let them double dip commission) and get the listing agent working for you on the seller to lower the price before they accept the offer then get them to put in as much 'repair money' as you can get.

There are others way to get a lower price, other 'weapons' people use. I had a buyer come in with a chimney inspector who is supposdely known for advising every single chiimny he inspects be torn down and rebuilt. That was good for the buyers to gouge 10k off the price. But this was 2006 when they paid over 600k so the joke is on them. I know it was a lying scam and I gave in (was about to lower the price anyway, no offers coming int).
THen there is the crooked mold inspector scam, then there is the crooked home inspector scam (aluminum wiring! gotcha!), then there is the crooked termite inspector scam. Its endless.

PockyClipsNow says

2. The difference in 'number of offers' doesnt mean they are lying

Yes it does.

PockyClipsNow says

THen there is the crooked mold inspector scam, then there is the crooked home inspector scam (aluminum wiring! gotcha!), then there is the crooked termite inspector scam. Its endless.

Please elaborate on this more. Are you saying that people are claiming false defects to get out of buying houses?

Im claiming its common to hire an 'aggressive inspector' not to get of contracts but the buyers use this sometimes to get credit ($) for repairs after offer is accepted. Its well known tactic, and in most all cases the defects are real. Except for Mold and termite - i think those are mostly BS IMO based on my in the field experience. (in the case of mold i would say 100% a scam, 'toxic mold' is a scam 100% of the time IMO but you can find endless 'evidence' its real but I think its as fake as global warming, mold is natural and will grow on your bread in 2 days. But i could be wrong.)

for depaktepores I have vanguard total bond market index, vanguard high yield tax free, vanguard high yield corporate.
The biggest of the three is total bond market index admiral shares.
I would not suggest that having $150K in cash is the same as buying high yield corporate bonds however. The high yield bond fund can vary in nav (principal) so using that fund as a parking place for money is not that wise.
But, if I were a guy running around looking for "investments" and had $150K burning a hole in my pocket, I'd consider the alternative to being a landlord and look at bond funds.
A place to hold your dough while you decide might be vanguard total bond market index fund.
International bond funds also may have good yields but they have other risks depending on which countries bonds they own, and currency risks, etc.

clambo says

A place to hold your dough while you decide might be vanguad total bond market index fund.

bonds are very risky right now since rates are so low.

always good to have some bonds held via an index but it's not a great idea to overweight your portfolio with them at this time.

I am low weight in bonds when compared to my total financial assets.

Yet, an unexpected "flight to quality" caused a slight capital appreciation of my total bond market index last year.

" That dump will ultimately sell for 85K, if they're lucky."

"Then you don't know the market in this part of the world."

Maybe. However I know Silicon Valley, and there are similarities, I imagine. Most people can't imagine real crashes; they don't have a sense of historical perspective, or what happens to money in a deflationary depression. You can buy oceanfront mansions in parts of Connecticut for cheap - and I promise you they weren't always cheap. I think 85K will end up being optimistic. Funny things happen when suddenly no-one can get credit.

I grew up in eastern CT. There are areas there - Noank, Stonington, Watch Hill - that have been very, very wealthy for a very, very long time. Now - for the first time in living memory - the houses in those towns are not selling. Those owners who in any way relied on the value of their houses (and many of them did and do; the wealthy who are independent of the value of their real estate are few outside of Silicon Valley) are hurting. They are showing up at a regular get-together my dad frequents, trying to sell family heirlooms like the gun their dad carried during WWII. It's depressing. I should feel schadenfreude, given that my family is boring middle class, but I mostly don't.

why the big mystery? they are too expensive. I hear it's very hard to sell a manor house, castle or chateau in britain and france too.

Steer clear of termites

In Arizona there are two types of homes: those that have had termites, and those that will get termites. You get it treated, buy a warranty, and keep it enforce so that when you sell, you can give the new buyer a one year termite warranty.

Is that true?, if you live in AZ you will get termites no matter what?

How can I find a top agent by the number of listings they get per year?

Kingshat says

How can I find a top agent by the number of listings they get per year?

AF, any comments?

I'm trying to market a service/product to agents in my area (washington DC) and want to find out the number of listings they get on average in one year.

A listing can be on the market for six months and you go and submit an offer and quess what, there's another offer or how about two other offers. Amazing how this works with these Realtors. How I know is because I've had it happen to me.

karen says

" That dump will ultimately sell for 85K, if they're lucky."

"Then you don't know the market in this part of the world."

Maybe. However I know Silicon Valley, and there are similarities, I imagine. Most people can't imagine real crashes; they don't have a sense of historical perspective, or what happens to money in a deflationary depression. You can buy oceanfront mansions in parts of Connecticut for cheap - and I promise you they weren't always cheap. I think 85K will end up being optimistic. Funny things happen when suddenly no-one can get credit.

You are talking as if we are at the peak of the market and are about to dive off the edge. Prices in Marina have already crashed (far more than your part of the world) and may well decline further, but look at the potential income on the property compared to the cost of an 85k loan (or lower) and then tell me why you think it will go that low.

Clambo, are you talking about the waterfront mansions (which are cheap), or the costly places in e.g. Stonington (which are not, for the most part, mansions)?

The waterfront mansions - which are oceanfront, or VERY close - are cheap because the areas have gone downhill over the decades since the 1920s when they were built. E.g. New London, CT. Not a slum, but not a place where the wealthy hang out anymore. There are towns on the coast even closer to NYC which are in the same situation. These are NOT places in the middle of nowhere; the train goes right to NYC. My point is that NO-ONE would have believed that conveniently located, waterfront mansions would go for a song. here is an example: http://www.weichert.com/32358695/?cityid=35948&ptypeid=32. note that even the taxes aren't bad. New London is a four hour drive from NYC, up the scenic CT coast (no, I'm not a realtard).

re the houses in the places that are still (for the moment) very upmarket, like Stonington and Noank, they have been very expensive for many years even though they are not for the most part mansions. They are simply houses in areas that wealthy people have continued to frequent. Since I was growing up in that area (I'm 48) and for long before, these were "fancy" areas, and they did well during the last bubble, although things didn't go nuts like in CA. Suddenly, they have stopped selling. You can say that that's because they're too expensive, but that begs the point. They were selling *before* when they were too expensive.

My view is that the next domino to fall in the second great depression, is the upper middle class, and the near-rich. They have way too much of their money in real estate, and their financial sector jobs are under the axe. They are going to get crucified.

Bigsby, re your post. As Mish Shedlock puts it, there is no driver for jobs that pay well, and none in the foreseeable future. Add broke young people (college loans)(health insurance)(their broke boomer parents)(rising food and fuel costs due to Bernanke's QE which is being used to speculate on stuff people need)(outsourced jobs), who are the group that would be buying/renting starter places, and there is going to be pressure on rental costs. A whole series of landlords can buy, try to rent, give up, and sell for less (or get foreclosed on) before things settle to their final bottom.

Sorry if this is too general for you; I know I'm not making new claims. The condo we bought in Silicon Valley was on the market for five years before we bought it (it was rented out during that time, admittedly); it cost us 22 percent less than the owner paid, who had bought it many years before, and way less than it would have cost at the height of that bubble. That was a comparatively tiny bubble, and it took them five years to sell, going down the whole time.

I don't know why the link didn't work to the New London house. This is the address: 960 OCEAN AVE, New London CT

I think this should work: http://www.weichert.com/32358695/?cityid=35948&ptypeid=32

The problem karen is that it's hard to sell expensive houses today. They are too "expensive" because you can't get those giant mortgages and there are no incomes sufficient to buy them if they are too far away from manhattan by train.
Above New London as you mention is not Cos Cobb.
A waterfront mansion may be "cheap" to some but houses that cost over a million bucks are hard for people to buy, regardless they were once worth more than that a couple of years ago.
Most of those million+ dollar places were built or bought by the old timers in there for a fraction of that amount. There just aren't that many zillionaires running around ready to get a million dollar mortgage.

Karen, rents may or may not drop, but housing stock is limited in Monterey County and the developments in Marina appear to have been mothballed, so that isn't going to change any time soon. I don't have a crystal ball, but if what you are saying comes true, then current rents will have to more than half otherwise why wouldn't potential renters just buy their condos? Your imaginary 85k price would cost a grand total of about $350 month in mortgage payments. It's also $55k less than its 1991 price, so...

I must not have made myself clear, clambo, because I entirely agree with you. What you just wrote is basically the point I was trying to make.

An 85k condo will only cost $350 per month in mortgage payments if interest rates remain at their present unbelievably low rates. Bernanke wants them to - it's his big goal - but whether he will succeed is another question.

Renters don't buy condos for a couple of reasons. One, they can't come up with a down payment (many people are *broke* in this country; even those with decent incomes are often terrible at saving money). The other reason these days is foreclosures; if enough units in a complex are in foreclosure then the banks won't want to provide a buyer with a loan. That helps investor-buyers.

Let me clarify - what I mean is that I think similar units in that complex will ultimately go for 85k. maybe someone will catch a falling knife before then in re this particular unit.

Yes, yes, housing stock is always *limited* in CA. Well, in the part of SF where I dream of living but never will for various reasons of practicality (the Sunset), prices keep dropping. And they're not building any more houses there, either.

clambo - the mansion I listed was 550K, not a million. and there are others in New London for less; I just think that one is esp. huge and in great condition. Also, I keep checking Cos Cobb, and I keep seeing prices reduced there (yes, they're still too high, for the reasons you listed).