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Eman
2013 Jul 10, 5:53pm
Ok. I'm in. Now I'm debating between 1k or 2k shares. Probably 1k shares in my account & 1k shares in wifey's account.
I'll probably stick it in PBR instead (!#$%^&@ I should have done it yesterday! Day late and a dollar short... sigh)
kt1652
2013 Jul 12, 2:05am
...you tell a good story! ...
No JCP for me, not yet anyway.
Two words - channel and resistance.
I want all 6 or so indicators to set up before buying.
There are many pretty girls at the dance.
Goran_K
2013 Jul 12, 2:23am
Sorry, don't see the upside in big box retail, but see a lot of downside, especially in JCP's situation.
Goran_K
2013 Jul 12, 2:45am
Big box retail is getting decimated by e-commerce shops right now, and the trend is only accelerating.
In 5-10 years, I could see Best Buys, Sears, JCP, and others extinct literally, or only existing with an online presence competing with the other millions of online shops out there.
Y
2013 Jul 12, 2:53am
I agree with what you say, except for stores that specialize in clothing.
Nothing like trying on stuff before purchase, putting your hands on the material, and viewing the available selections in person.
I buy most anything via e-commerce, but hardly anything clothing related...
Also, malls, where JCP's are mostly located, are as much a 'hangout' for bad weather weekends as anything else.
Big box retail is getting decimated by e-commerce shops right now, and the trend is only accelerating.
In 5-10 years, I could see Best Buys, Sears, JCP, and others extinct literally, or only existing with an online presence competing with the other millions of online shops out there.
Goran_K
2013 Jul 12, 3:15am
That's partially true, but it's also not going to save JC Penny. A growing trend for people is to visit brick and mortar stores, look at an item in person, and then using their handy 24/7 internet connected smart phone to check for the price online. Then... go and buy it online for much less. It's a reason that Best Buy decided to implement "Amazon matching", and with Amazon's overhead being half of Best Buys, you can see where that battle is going to end...
But even if you ignored that, the simple fact that JC Penny's online retail presence was the only department to not experience a massive sales revenue drop for the company tells the real story. JCP completely closed all of their catalog stores, and overall the companies sales revenue was down massively by 1/3 in 2012 YOY.
Additionally, it's commonly accepted that a 5% revenue decline, at least 50-90% of that lost cash comes directly off the bottom line – because costs don’t fall with revenues. JCP had nearly a 33% drop from 2011 to 2012, and I expect that to continue when the 2012-2013 YOY numbers come out.
The icing on the cake is JCP really has no niche when it comes to clothing retail. At least nothing that would seperate it from Macy's, Kohl's, Target, Nordstroms, American Eagle, Forever 21, GAP/Old Navy, Abercrombie, so on, and so on.
JCP stock has dropped by 50% since the pre-Ron Johnson days, and I don't see it coming back. Online retail is here to stay, and unfortunately for people invested into JCP, I don't think JCP is.
zzyzzx
2013 Jul 12, 11:18am
Big box retail is getting decimated by e-commerce shops right now, and the trend is only accelerating.
It's not just that. It's that any idiot can open up a retail store, and even when I was a little kid I noticed that they seemed to come and go with the proverbial wind.
The great recession impacted everyone including JCP. It hit JCP consumers especially hard unlike Macy’s whose customers are more upscale and wealthy. Unlike the rest that recovered from the recession, JCP sank further and is especially painful given the bull market in 2009-2013.
Most Macy's (95%) are not in upscale areas. Unlike Union Square SF Prime.. South San Jose, Sunnyvale or the many malls in SFBA can be considered upscale..
The icing on the cake is JCP really has no niche when it comes to clothing retail. At least nothing that would seperate it from Macy's, Kohl's, Target, Nordstroms, American Eagle, Forever 21, GAP/Old Navy, Abercrombie, so on, and so on.
White Front, Meryvns, Montgomery Wards... im sure there were several more.
All gone as time goes by...
casandra
2013 Jul 12, 1:27pm
I don't think they advertise to their customer base. There adds so all the same looking ladies that don't exist around the stores locations, then I go to their empty stores and see an entirely different looking customer.
Goran_K
2013 Jul 12, 3:27pm
White Front, Meryvns, Montgomery Wards... im sure there were several more.
All gone as time goes by...
Montgomery Wards was one of the ones I was thinking of when I saw this thread. Investing into big box retail is dinosaur speculating. I haven't seen one of those running around in a long time.
Y
2013 Jul 13, 6:28am
Well, we are still talking about clothes, versus gadgets.
I doubt the tactic below accounts for more than 1-2% of the sales drop. All the other big box stores suffer from this also. Not restricted to JCP.
Clothes are something people want to feel and try on, and when they find something they like, I think they are more apt to purchase it in the box store versus going home and finding it online. The shipping and handling costs from an online purchase can eat up most if not all savings anyway. And there is the risk the clothes that are shipped have some differences than the ones they had in their hands and could examine. And then there is the 'instant gratification' factor....
A growing trend for people is to visit brick and mortar stores, look at an item in person, and then using their handy 24/7 internet connected smart phone to check for the price online. Then... go and buy it online for much less. It's a reason that Best Buy decided to implement "Amazon matching", and with Amazon's overhead being half of Best Buys, you can see where that battle is going to end...
Y
2013 Jul 13, 6:31am
I think the biggest impact in the revenue drop is due to the "no cash register" model, and the demise of the unique brands like St Johns Bay. The new CEO is turning all this around....who wants to go searching for someone so you can checkout? That was a stupid idea.
Y
2013 Jul 13, 8:35am
Just came back from the mall on a sunny saturday afternoon.
Nordstroms: Packed with shoppers. displays everywhere. #1 for today.
Macys: Not as many, but a lot. Products and displays everywhere. Glittercity.
JCP: 50% less than nordstroms..almost a ghost town. They are trying to get their little stores set up...some cash registers in place...but traffic still very slow.
Displays are much more conservative and spread apart. The place looks like it has about half the selections of the other two stores...They are having sales now. some sales signs up.
Goran_K
2013 Jul 13, 11:59pm
100% inaccurate. JCP.com lost 33% vs, 25% for the store. Online was a disaster.
You are right, my info on online was outdated. In fact the JCP online store from 2011 to 2012 YOY also suffered a massive loss.
"In the past year, online was operating as a separate business, he said. And out-of-stock merchandise and website failures resulted in 33 percent decline in online sale last year to $1.02 billion."
http://www.dallasnews.com/business/retail/20130516-j.c.-penney-widens-loss-but-returning-ceo-says-its-fixable.ece
That actually makes JCP worse off than I initially thought.
Inaccurate. The catalog was discontinued in 2009 for 2010. Catalog is not the problem.
Are you making stuff up SFace? JCP continued to operate (and close) Catalog stores well into 2011 during Ron Johnson's tenure with the company. The last stores didn't close until the end of 2011 when 15 of them were sold to SB Capital Group in October of that year.
http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?section=news/business&id=7917668
http://www.sbcapitalgroup.com/news/item.cfm?id=109
Who is being inaccurate now? Anyway, my point was that the catalog stores were a big part of the JCP business model for such a long time, and that model could simply not survive because it's a dinosaur just like JCP is as a company.
SG&A are fixed, It works both way, if you can improve gross margins with the same fixed costs, the cash flow turns around easilly. That's why momentum is huge and we have seen negative momentum. Q2 is likley YOY decline, but Q3 and Q4 their big season will comp positive.
Don't disagree with this, but do disagree that suddenly JCP is going to pick up momentum in Q3 and Q4. I especially love the statement "if you can improve gross margins", ah, isn't that the trick though? :)
See the thing you don't seem to understand SFace, or seem to be obliviously walking into with your wallet unfortunately, is that the reason JCP is doing so badly is because there has been a structural change in how the population perceives retail, and it's only accelerating. It's not just about online. JCP has not managed to adapt as well as its competitors at its brick/mortar locations too. There are many volumes written about it online, but suffice to say, there's a reason why a company like K-Mart has fallen so far behind Target, even though both companies sell essentially to the same demographic and (used to) have roughly the same amount of stores.
You're investing into JCP's proposed new line of horse carriages, and the general population has moved onto automobiles. Good luck with that.
Goran_K
2013 Jul 14, 12:13am
I doubt the tactic below accounts for more than 1-2% of the sales drop.
Don't agree.
Online clothing retail alone is now a $40 billion dollar industry growing at a CAGR of 10% according to Forester. According to the same source non e-commerce is growing at 3%. So it's not a 1-2% shift/change according to the data available, it's shifting a lot faster than that.
By comparison, online sales of computers and consumer electronics, one of the biggest online segments, is a $50 billion industry.
Nordstroms: Packed with shoppers. displays everywhere. #1 for today.
Macys: Not as many, but a lot. Products and displays everywhere. Glittercity.
JCP: 50% less than nordstroms..almost a ghost town. They are trying to get their little stores set up...some cash registers in place...but traffic still very slow.
Displays are much more conservative and spread apart. The place looks like it has about half the selections of the other two stores...They are having sales now. some sales signs up.
At least you can go to a JCP store. There is literally ONE JCP in all of South Orange County, and it exist at the smallest, and least popular mall in South OC (Laguna Hills Mall). By comparison, you can get to 4-5 Macy's in the same geographical area.
The largest and most profitable mall in OC doesn't even have a JC Penney (South Coast Plaza). That's very telling IMO.
Y
2013 Jul 14, 1:12am
I was referring to the tactic of physically going to a JCP store, examining the merchandise, getting back into your car, going home, and finding the same item online, waiting for delivery instead of instant gratification, and paying shipping/handling costs which would eat up most of the savings of buying online.
Do you think most people buying online employ the above tactic?
I doubt the tactic below accounts for more than 1-2% of the sales drop.
Don't agree.
Online clothing retail alone is now a $40 billion dollar industry growing at a CAGR of 10% according to Forester. According to the same source non e-commerce is growing at 3%. So it's not a 1-2% shift/change according to the data available, it's shifting a lot faster than that.
By comparison, online sales of computers and consumer electronics, one of the biggest online segments, is a $50 billion industry.
Goran_K
2013 Jul 14, 1:31am
APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says
Bricks and mortar retailers are Amazon showrooms.
This is funny, but true.
Goran_K
2013 Jul 14, 1:34am
Do you think most people buying online employ the above tactic?
I think it happens a lot more than you think. I think "instant" gratification is a valid point, but not when the price difference is too wide.
As for shipping/handling eating up savings, that's a misnomer. American Eagle offers free shipping practically every week (I buy their jeans online since I know how their straight leg 32 waist jeans feel already since I own 4 of them). In fact, I just randomly checked right now and they have another free shipping weekend.
The margins on online e-tailing are so good, companies are willing to front the shipping charges, especially once a customer hits a certain purchase minimum.
Goran_K
2013 Jul 14, 1:36am
APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says
Amazon is going to pick it up at the firesale for pennies on the dollar from the trustees after the stock is delisted and begin attacking retailers on the ground as well as through direct delivery etail channels.
I'm going to buy a dozen JC Penney mannequins for target practice with my cross bow.
New Renter
2013 Jul 14, 1:44am
APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says
Amazon is going to pick it up at the firesale for pennies on the dollar from the trustees after the stock is delisted and begin attacking retailers on the ground as well as through direct delivery etail channels.
I'm going to buy a dozen JC Penney mannequins for target practice with my cross bow.
Good idea! AF should pick up a few hundred for his twirly gun.
Goran_K
2013 Jul 14, 1:52am
That would be a good move for JC Penney. Do you think it would improve their market viability AF?
JC Penney, the place where you can test out your ordinance on well dressed mannequins.
New Renter
2013 Jul 14, 4:14am
That would be a good move for JC Penney. Do you think it would improve their market viability AF?
JC Penney, the place where you can test out your ordinance on well dressed mannequins.
Just what is the well dressed realtor wearing these days?
@SFace Any updates on JCP? I have been following it since you posted originally, but I haven't jumped in yet. I noticed the leg down yesterday - thoughts?
B.A.C.A.H.
2013 Aug 1, 5:36am
Those stores in my region are bleak, desolute, shoddy looking places. Kinda like Detroit I suppose.
AverageBear
2013 Aug 1, 8:56am
I also hate retail stocks.
---------------------------------------
I also hate retail stocks. As I slowly build out my portfolio, the only retail stock I plan on investing in, is Walmart (WMT), w/ a decent/OK dividend of 2.4%... Not a bad deal w/ a P/E of 15.4 ........ A buy and hold proposition, especially when history tells us it doubles it dividend payout every 3-4 years....
http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/2012/08/wal-mart-stores-wmt-dividend-stock.html
...."The annual dividend payment has increased by 17.90% per year over the past decade, which is higher than to the growth in EPS."......
...."An 18% growth in distributions translates into the dividend payment doubling every four years. If we look at historical data, going as far back as 1978 we see that Wal-Mart Stores has actually managed to double its dividend every three years on average.
The dividend payout ratio has increased from 16.60% in 2003 to 32% in 2012. The expansion in the payout ratio has enabled dividend growth to be faster than EPS growth over the past decade. A lower payout is always a plus, since it leaves room for consistent dividend growth minimizing the impact of short-term fluctuations in earnings.".......
Goran_K
2013 Aug 2, 5:27am
I knew this one was a loser as soon as this thread was posted.
Where are you at e-man?
Thanks, SFace. Loaded 500 shares.
How's that anonymous forum stock advice working out for you?
CIT will not state directly if they are pulling back on JCP, but they have already stopped factoring some of JCP's suppliers, which is going to hurt Penney's in the short term on deliveries for August.
I can tell you that when CIT starts getting skittish, it is bad tea leaves for the retailer. This is exactly how things started going down last year when the Baker's chain of shoe stores filed bankruptcy and finally liquidated. CIT was the last straw that really put them out.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/31/us-jcpenney-cit-idUSBRE96U18P20130731
This article shows the PR agents are in full denial mode:
Goran_K
2013 Aug 4, 5:06am
How's that anonymous forum stock advice working out for you?
lol
E-man, where you at?
Goran_K
2013 Aug 7, 5:02am
Thank you for thinking of me. ;) I guess you could say that I avoided the disaster because I've been busy remodeling one of our recent acquisitions and had no spare time to buy stocks. I'm one of those lucky guys that god is always looking out for me. Well, at least that's how I feel.
Lucky you! God is good. Are you going to take back your high-five from SFace now or does he get to keep that?
Sitting on cash, strangely, actually seems to be a sound strategy at the moment.
I think you took SFace's post the wrong way. It was a risk and reward trade. He mentioned the potential downside is $12 with the potential upside of $30. $5/share loss for a potential gain of $13/share. It was a trade, not an investment. If things don't turn around by the end of 3rd quarter, it's time to swallow the pride and cut the losses. That's how I would do it.
Maybe. Though I never saw the potential upside (as explained by all of my previous post about big box retail stocks). The time to swallow pride and cut losses was right before he thought buying JCP was a good idea.
Eman
2013 Aug 8, 7:37am
"Are you going to take back your high-five from SFace now or does he get to keep that?"
Nope. I still give him a high five. It's way too easy to be a critic. SFace stuck his neck out there with this purchase as well as a call to double up on FB. How many critics on here, other than a few, have the balls to show their actual trades/purchases. Most are nothing, but a bunch of Monday night quarterbacks.
Goran_K
2013 Aug 8, 8:40am
Plus, he's your buddy, you can't diss him out in public right?
How many critics on here, other than a few, have the balls to show their actual trades/purchases.
Not me for sure. If I have a winner, I'd definitely not share it publicly on the board. Why would I do something like that?
Comments 1 - 40 of 111 Next » Last » Search these comments
This is a stock I have been following closely for a long time. Bought when Soros bought and sold before the last earning and made 40% in one month. I have been thinking about them a lot lately and now recommend a strong buy. Here’s a summary of my reasoning and material background.
Who’s long?
Soros and Ackman. A 25% stake held by two of the most respected investor is a good reason for me. Ackman changed my family when (I mom, brothers and close friends, in law) placed a bet on GGP when they announced bankruptcy and promptly went on for a fourty bagger in 4 years using the same reasoning applied by Ackman (real estate was worth too much). If there is a question that asks who is your favorite author, it would be Soros (albeit someone writes on his behalf)
JCP Background (Permanent of Temporary problems)?
JCP has a 100+ year background. 1,100+ department stores scattered throughout the United States and an online store via JCP.com. Over the years, they used their equity to purchase 400+ stores and own the HQ and distribution facilities. The non-owned stores are likely on long term lease with long term options and likely very favorable. In a nutshell, their cost structure is as favorable as any retailer out there. Basically at a market cap of 3.7B, you are getting Penney at less than 4M per department store and $4sale/market cap and an enterprise value above shares (if you count the true market value of real estate that is not marked-up on the balance sheet). The market is pricing Penney like it would be dead (which may or may not be the case). So obviously understanding whether Penney’s problems are permanent vs. temporary is of great interest to me.
The demise of JCP
The great recession impacted everyone including JCP. It hit JCP consumers especially hard unlike Macy’s whose customers are more upscale and wealthy. Unlike the rest that recovered from the recession, JCP sank further and is especially painful given the bull market in 2009-2013.
Long story short, Ackman kicked out Ullman and Ron Johnson was brought on board. Ron brought his own team from Apple and installed his expensive and risky vision and likely created a hostile work environoment bewteen Ullmans and Johnson's people. The strategy employed by JCP should be studied by every business school now in America as it is fascinating. (When I was in college, Dell and IBM was the study case, but now, JCP and BBRY would be my study). The huge difference between Apple retail and JCP retail is about 1M SKU’s and customers that seek the deals. Apple sells Iphone, Ipad, Ibook for the same $599, 1,099 price and sells itself. JCP is a completely different beast. Ron Johnson’s fit was a disaster and under his watch, burned through 1B in capex and burned through another 1B in operating losses and alienated customers. Revenue went from the 17B’s to 12B, practically unheard of in the retail industry to fall that far that fast. SSS was negative 25%. The financial metric was an outright disaster and the PR was a disaster. Further, Johnson got into some legal issues with Martha Stewart and Macy. If there was ever a board you want to be a fly on the wall, JCP was the one to see what the Board asks and how Johnson responded. In March, Johnson out and familiar face Ullman in. Penney was described as a disaster, mess and much worst. Soros buy.
Here was some of JCP’s problems:
•Fair and square pricing in lieu of discounts on top of discounts. This was a bad maneuver. Customers like to feel like they got a deal and there are customers that buy and not look at price tag. In the first category, you lose customers who are trained on feeling like they got a deal, in the second category, you underpriced the product and lost revenue. The retail world sells inventory in full retail price when it is fresh off the shelves and discount it to get rid of it. It is the straightforward and proven way to manage inventory. When you sell 100K different things, that is the only way to go. This is a temporary problem not a perm problem.
•Cap-ex and shop in shop. In all fairness, Johnson was either going to be a hero or a zero. The shop in shop concept is actually well deployed in places like Asia and successful, it gives branded retailers incentive and push to partner with JCP. Ullman already started with the Sephora make-up store and by all accounts, it was successful. Johnson pressed the button to cap-ex the home store, clothing store and children’s store. It’s probably one of the biggest riskiest bet for retail. (huge cap-ex, taking out floor space and sacrifice performance and you have customers that may not accept the new brands). The dumped St. John which was a basic men's category which was a huge mistake.
A lot of the cash burn and SSS was expected. That strategy is yet to be determined. I have been visiting JCP a lot lately in different areas of town and observing traffic and conversion. I went on mother’s day and father’s day to further look at foot traffic and conversions as those are key dates to department stores. It’s been mixed.
Overall, I’m a believer in the strategy. Once the home store are all in business, the Disney stores comes in for back to school and all the shops are in place for the critical holiday season, JCP may be in business and I would not be surprise they can get back from 12B – 17B. It takes 6 months of planning to deliver results as decisions are made now for the critical holiday month and JCP is as focused as it has ever been in 100 years. lol A good friend of mine works at Levi’s and they are pleased with the Levis store at JCP and am working hard to increase traffic there specifically. More so than selling more jeans to Macy's as they have more reasons to see JCP do well than Macy's.
• Win back lost customers: I don’t think consumer hold any grudge against JCP. In the end, JCP is an anchor store on one of the wing. They’ll come as long as the consumer confidence and economic environment is fine and get used to shopping by brand instead of category. bring back what works for the older shoppers and continue to engage the younger shopper it was trying to appeal to. It’s a matter of getting the right product at the right price and become cusomer focused. It’s not terribly new anyway as Macy’s have their branded stores anyway.
• Retail climate. JCP is shielded from Europe and Asia so their health is based solely on the American consumer and betting on the american middle class. Online stores have been eating everyone but I don’t think malls are going away, just need to be righsized. It helps JCP that fair market act are coming on board (possibly) and Obamacare penalty provision are delayed another year. The US tax system,(inluding locally) and policies will be generally supportive of domestic business that hires American workers.
So I’ve convinced myself to buy JCP again (thinks the big issues are temporary). It is a great risk vs. reward play. I really think by back to school and this Christmas, JCP will be clearly trending up again. They have a lot of press lately and I think they have a legit shot once all the stores, marketing, promotions, brands are finally on line at the same time (by back to school). Downside $12 by December and upside $30 if it is clear their turnaround efforts are (not)working and funds will come on board big time.
I am long @ a tad under $17. (Sold for $13 when Ackman was out) Good luck.
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