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Is Bay Area housing crash over?


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2012 Feb 27, 1:41am   94,733 views  406 comments

by fewy   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Like many of you here I have been waiting for the prices in the bay area to come falling back to earth. Over the past year, the things that I'm seeing make me believe that a huge correction will no longer happen and the prices in most area's have already corrected themselves.

The main reason why the Bay Area was spared from the large housing crash seems to come from the fact that the great recession didn't hit us as hard as other places. This let people keep their jobs and save money. Now as the U.S. is coming out of this recession, the stock market is rising, and people in the Bay Area didn't get scared of investing in housing because there was no major housing crash. We might get a good rise in housing prices. The last example that turned my opinion around is the amount of homes for sale in santa clara county. The inventory is half of what it used to be last year and it seems like the inventory that comes onto the market is quickly bought up. What do you guys think?

#housing

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245   Claire   2012 Mar 1, 11:47pm  

So, I wonder still - if housing is so robust around the fortress (Mountain View specifically) - why do realtors still manipulate the house prices? Example - mind you the only one I have ever noticed like this, but it makes you wonder if there are others - a house was up for sale for 775, I thought it was too much, sold for 685, not "such" a bad price - then when I looked at the original asking price listed it now said it was 675 - so it was sold "above" asking!!!! Not nearly 90k under - something screwy is still going on :-(

246   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Mar 2, 12:19am  

Claire says

So, I wonder still - if housing is so robust around the fortress (Mountain View specifically) - why do realtors still manipulate the house prices? Example - mind you the only one I have ever noticed like this, but it makes you wonder if there are others - a house was up for sale for 775, I thought it was too much, sold for 685, not "such" a bad price - then when I looked at the original asking price listed it now said it was 675 - so it was sold "above" asking!!!! Not nearly 90k under - something screwy is still going on :-(

This bull is definitely not a one time event. When an organization that has a conflict of interest in a market (always favors the upside) has control over the data, you can be absolutely 100% sure there is manipulation happening all the time. Human nature and the reason why we need to overhaul the whole system. Dismantle NAR, go to fixed fees for realtors, and create a free open online database for buying/selling. Lastly, make title insurance an option, not mandatory. I bought a new house in 2003 and had to pay $1200 for them to do the title search. Huh? I am the first owner idiots. If the builder can't guarantee that he actually owned the land and can sell me the house in the free and clear, then I'll just take him to court. I don't need any stinking title search. There is no back taxes on a house that was never owned. Just another money grab by an organization more corrupt and powerful than the Mofia IMHO.

247   tiny tina   2012 Mar 2, 12:47am  

Claire says

So, I wonder still - if housing is so robust around the fortress (Mountain View specifically) - why do realtors still manipulate the house prices? Example - mind you the only one I have ever noticed like this, but it makes you wonder if there are others - a house was up for sale for 775, I thought it was too much, sold for 685, not "such" a bad price - then when I looked at the original asking price listed it now said it was 675 - so it was sold "above" asking!!!! Not nearly 90k under - something screwy is still going on :-(

Here's another screwy one:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Mountain-View/697-Woburn-Ct-94040/home/647656
Sold for 1.4M in 2006, now sale pending at 1.7M. It'll probably fall through though and wind up selling for $400k.

248   rootvg   2012 Mar 2, 12:51am  

tiny tina says

Claire says

So, I wonder still - if housing is so robust around the fortress (Mountain View specifically) - why do realtors still manipulate the house prices? Example - mind you the only one I have ever noticed like this, but it makes you wonder if there are others - a house was up for sale for 775, I thought it was too much, sold for 685, not "such" a bad price - then when I looked at the original asking price listed it now said it was 675 - so it was sold "above" asking!!!! Not nearly 90k under - something screwy is still going on :-(

Here's another screwy one:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Mountain-View/697-Woburn-Ct-94040/home/647656

Sold for 1.4M in 2006, now sale pending at 1.7M. It'll probably fall through though and wind up selling for $400k.

One point seven? THAT?

I would say a foreigner will buy it or may already have.

249   bubblesitter   2012 Mar 2, 1:42am  

rootvg says

I would say a foreigner will buy it or may already have.

Uh,someone is cashing out the apple stocks bought in 2003. :)

250   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Mar 2, 1:45am  

rootvg says

Here's another screwy one:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Mountain-View/697-Woburn-Ct-94040/home/647656

Sold for 1.4M in 2006, now sale pending at 1.7M. It'll probably fall through though and wind up selling for $400k.

One point seven? THAT?

I would say a foreigner will buy it or may already have.

Didn't you see though? It came with an almost new washer and dryer. And don't get me started on the schools. We are lucky houses like this are not sold for 1/2 googleplex because of the school. Oh the schools, how good they have become since 1990. I guess everyone got a raw deal back then when houses only cost 200k or so.

251   rootvg   2012 Mar 2, 1:47am  

bubblesitter says

rootvg says

I would say a foreigner will buy it or may already have.

Uh,someone is cashing out the apple stocks bought in 2003. :)

If they're smart? Yeah, probably.

I had my issues with Jobs but nothing succeeds like success. I'll also say that Apple while supposedly having five years of product in the pipeline post Jobs is very likely to end up as "just another tech company" or more likely acquired by someone else down the road.

One of our vendors was here to take us to dinner last week and she said the Sun/IBM deal almost went through and if it had, the entire landscape of corporate computing would have changed. We're still hearing rumors about Meg cleaning up HP and getting it ready for sale.

252   edvard2   2012 Mar 2, 1:53am  

JodyChunder says

Honestly, I don't think it'd be that dramatic. Besides, this is the same mentality that rich foreigners have when moving to the Bay Area to overpay for a lifestyle out of reach of most working Bay Areans. How is that dynamic sustainable anywhere? Another thing to consider is that it isn't primarily school teachers and carpenters that are flocking to Texas, it's folks who transfer from their jobs in other states in most cases.

The East and West coasts are basically slowly emptying out their middle class populations to these areas- like TX as a result.

Where are they going to go when Texas becomes just as expensive as California, because that's the general trajectory over the long haul. If you can think a few moves ahead and figure on where that third hop might be and setup shop there, then maybe you're onto something. My personal guess is Florida. California, though, will remain peerless in many regards. It's just a beautiful chunk of country.

All I can say is that my Mom is a school teacher in NC and has been for almost 38 years. Last year her school alone had 9 students and all were from California. My parents have repeatedly run into people from Cali, NY, MA, and other expensive areas who moved on down and are tickled as punch because they can affrdo to live there and live well at that.

Also- whenever I go home and visit the amount of apparent growth is dramatic. There are many reasons the Southeast- as in NC, GA, TN, and SC are growing as they are- mostly for reasons I mentioned before. Whether its a good or bad thing most of these states have hardly any barriers when it comes to development. A homebuilder can bulldoze anything and stick in a tract of homes anywhere. As a result I'll go home and where there was once a farm there now exists a whole new batch of Mcmansions- all in the 150-200k range because unlike Cali, there are no heavy requirements to make them earthquake proof.

TX is the same. There are few if any regulations or rules to prevent companies from building new houses like crazy. What happens ANYTIME a housing development is suggested anywhere near the Bay Area? People cry foul, whine, and complain about it. So as a result no new housing gets built. Prices are high as a result. No such thing happens in TX or the other robust growth states.

Lastly, all of these states have a MASSIVE amount of land with hardly any space limitations. Thus with that in mind, therein lies the reason why housing remains cheap.

253   rootvg   2012 Mar 2, 1:53am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

rootvg says

Here's another screwy one:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Mountain-View/697-Woburn-Ct-94040/home/647656

Sold for 1.4M in 2006, now sale pending at 1.7M. It'll probably fall through though and wind up selling for $400k.

One point seven? THAT?

I would say a foreigner will buy it or may already have.

Didn't you see though? It came with an almost new washer and dryer. And don't get me started on the schools. We are lucky houses like this are not sold for 1/2 googleplex because of the school. Oh the schools, how good they have become since 1990. I guess everyone got a raw deal back then when houses only cost 200k or so.

I paid what I paid because it was Danville, and I knew that going in. The stuff we looked at in San Ramon wasn't much less and it wasn't where I wanted to live anyway. I didn't want to do Lafayette because it's expensive, liberal and "diverse" and I'm generally not an open minded person.

My father in law said the most dangerous thing in the world is a redneck with a college education. He's been gone almost fifteen years but I have to admit he was right.

254   1sfrenter   2012 Mar 2, 2:00am  

rootvg says

"diverse" and I'm generally not an open minded person.

Is this just a fancy way of saying that you are racist?

I've never heard it put quite like that. Kudos for being honest. I guess.

Glad you are not my neighbor.

255   rootvg   2012 Mar 2, 2:14am  

1sfrenter says

rootvg says

"diverse" and I'm generally not an open minded person.

Is this just a fancy way of saying that you are racist?

I've never heard it put quite like that. Kudos for being honest. I guess.

Glad you are not my neighbor.

Actually, I'm not...but what would you do about it if I was? We still have a Constitution and I still have my First Amendment rights and you can't do anything about that.

Before you answer (if you answer), keep in mind that I'm not subject to the normal Bay Area silly person pseudo intellectual mindfog techniques or shame or any of the other childish shit people do here when they want to make some sort of social statement or attract attention. I'm completely immune.

256   freak80   2012 Mar 2, 2:18am  

There's already a "race war" thread over in the Politics section...

257   rootvg   2012 Mar 2, 2:22am  

wthrfrk80 says

There's already a "race war" thread over in the Politics section...

I'm actually a big fan of Tom Tancredo, who says we need to shut the borders for awhile to let the country "heal" (his words, actually) and have all these groups assimilate as they did after previous waves of mass immigration.

258   freak80   2012 Mar 2, 2:23am  

Yikes that's a whole different thread...

259   rootvg   2012 Mar 2, 2:27am  

My father's people came from Germany in 1848, settling in central PA where most of them live today. It's funny that when you walk down the streets of that town, many of the people look alike. Seriously!

260   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Mar 2, 2:28am  

rootvg says

I paid what I paid because it was Danville, and I knew that going in. The stuff we looked at in San Ramon wasn't much less and it wasn't where I wanted to live anyway. I didn't want to do Lafayette because it's expensive, liberal and "diverse" and I'm generally not an open minded person.

My father in law said the most dangerous thing in the world is a redneck with a college education. He's been gone almost fifteen years but I have to admit he was right.

Don't see how your response has any connection to the 1.7 million dollar home in mountain view? I think you made a great call buying in Danville, over San Ramon, but an even greater call would have been to buy in 3 years IMHO. The same arguments for people buying now have been kicked around for the last 5 year. They were incorrect then and they are still incorrect in my view. Rent until it is time to realistically buy for historically average prices. When they do come back in the BA, maybe the humanity will return to this area as well. I can only hope.

261   rootvg   2012 Mar 2, 2:35am  

It was the right house at the right price and the right situation, because I didn't have to deal with some asshole Baby Boomer who thinks he's entitled to my money or screwball Asian investor playing games or using his culture to fog me or play me off against someone.

It's the same as rent. It fit our budget. We like it.

262   tiny tina   2012 Mar 2, 2:48am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

It's the same as rent. It fit our budget. We like it.

That's all that matters. I wouldn't worry about some guy on the Internet saying buying in 3 years would be better (like he knows the future). Particularly, when he ends with: "I can only hope."

263   1sfrenter   2012 Mar 2, 2:48am  

rootvg says

Actually, I'm not...but what would you do about it if I was?

Like I just wrote, I just hope and pray I don't end up being your neighbor, because my guess is that my family would fit into your description of "diverse" and I would prefer to live surrounded by people who don't judge me before they even know me.

And YES, this is a housing issue. Many of us choose to pay top dollar to live in a place like SF or NYC or Berkeley so we can be treated fairly and as equals and be safe.

If you are a queer, bi-racial couple with children, the idea that you could just move to Texas or some cheap podunk town is not really an option.

Unless of course you want bottles thrown at you from passing cars (yes, that's happened to me), your kids bullies mercilessly (yes that happens) and people generally just treating you badly or giving you the cold shoulder because you don't look like they think you should.

264   1sfrenter   2012 Mar 2, 2:52am  

rootvg says

keep in mind that I'm not subject to the normal Bay Area silly person pseudo intellectual mindfog techniques or shame or any of the other childish shit people do here when they want to make some sort of social statement or attract attention. I'm completely immune.

Another veiled way of saying, "I am part of the mainstream so need not consider anyone else's experience or point of view because everything is just peachy for me and mine."

Danville is just far away enough to be sure you don't have any blacks or fags moving in next door, huh?

265   freak80   2012 Mar 2, 2:53am  

Eh, even Houston has a "gayborhood."

266   rootvg   2012 Mar 2, 3:07am  

1sfrenter says

rootvg says

keep in mind that I'm not subject to the normal Bay Area silly person pseudo intellectual mindfog techniques or shame or any of the other childish shit people do here when they want to make some sort of social statement or attract attention. I'm completely immune.

Another veiled way of saying, "I am part of the mainstream so need not consider anyone else's experience or point of view because everything is just peachy for me and mine."

Danville is just far away enough to be sure you don't have any blacks or fags moving in next door, huh?

You said it, I didn't.

267   rootvg   2012 Mar 2, 3:16am  

wthrfrk80 says

Eh, even Houston has a "gayborhood."

Dallas (where we lived for eight years) has a large and influential gay community as well but guess what? They don't push themselves and their values on you. They don't rock the boat...but then again, the Bay Area mentality is all about boat rocking and narcissism and attracting attention.

268   freak80   2012 Mar 2, 3:52am  

rootvg says

Dallas (where we lived for eight years) has a large and influential gay community as well but guess what? They don't push themselves and their values on you.

I didn't know that was even possible. Seem like so much of the "gay community" is "in your face."

rootvg says

the Bay Area mentality is all about boat rocking and narcissism and attracting attention.

It sure seems that way, at least to this Rust Belt Boy.

269   rootvg   2012 Mar 2, 4:07am  

Gays here are in your face because so many of them seem to be angry at the world...and because many of them simply have too much money.

270   bob2356   2012 Mar 2, 4:33am  

1sfrenter says

If you are a queer, bi-racial couple with children, the idea that you could just move to Texas or some cheap podunk town is not really an option.

So what is your point? Don't move places you won't be accepted, that's not rocket science. There are places other than SF and Greenwich Village that are tolerant or even accepting that are not expensive. Options exist so don't bother playing the victim card.

271   rootvg   2012 Mar 2, 4:43am  

My wife and I, as straight white conservative Republicans, would no more attempt to move to the Castro than fly to the moon.

There are even places where we came from in NE Ohio that are more open and accepting than others. Two flaming homosexual males buying a house and raising a child in Wadsworth, Ohio would be complete fucking social suicide. Those same people moving to Lakewood (regentrified suburb on the west side of Cleveland) or Cleveland Heights (similar sort of place on the east side) would be far better off. Better yet, try the same thing in one of the neighborhoods near Kent State University about an hour to the southeast. No one would ever know they were there. That's how little it would matter.

272   freak80   2012 Mar 2, 5:41am  

Or if you want to get into the Crystal Meth business, Ashtabula is a great location.

273   rootvg   2012 Mar 2, 5:47am  

wthrfrk80 says

Or if you want to get into the Crystal Meth business, Ashtabula is a great location.

Ashtabula is another one of those places that's become an economic black hole in the wake of NAFTA and GATT. It was securely blue collar and middle class but now it's no collar and aspires to be working class. Youngstown, Ashtabula, Steubenville, Zanesville, Mansfield...the names are all different but the stories tend to be the same.

Akron's doing a little better because there's a state university there and they still have some old money but not enough to keep us there.

274   freak80   2012 Mar 2, 5:56am  

Yep, it's the same story throughout the Rust Belt.

I grew up near Butler, PA and it was a typical blue-collar middle class town. Now it's the Heroin capital of western PA.

It's not just the Far Left intellectuals that are destroying the traditional family. The Economic Right is wiping out the family economically. It's hard for mom to stay at home with the kids (assuming she wants to) if dad only makes $7/hour.

275   1sfrenter   2012 Mar 2, 5:57am  

bob2356 says

There are places other than SF and Greenwich Village that are tolerant or even accepting that are not expensive. Options exist so don't bother playing the victim card.

Don't judge until you've walked a mile in someone else''s shoes. I've lived in many places, and choose to live in a place where my family will be accepted.

If it were just me, I would have no qualms being an outspoken agent of change. But I don't think it is fair to put young children in a situation where they have to fight those kinds of battles.

Calling someone out on their bigotry is not playing victim. Keeping quiet about discrimination is playing victim.

The anonymity of the web lets people show their true colors, and the homophobia and racism on many blogs is astounding.

276   freak80   2012 Mar 2, 6:02am  

1sfrenter says

The anonymity of the web lets people show their true colors, and the homophobia and racism on many blogs is astounding.

There is no such thing as "homophobia." That word is a purely political term.

277   rootvg   2012 Mar 2, 6:06am  

Ah, yes. Another guy who knows where to find a good hoagie. When we go back there I always go to the local OIP two or three times just to raise the level of hoagieglobin in my blood so I can get a high from it.

One of my major missions in life is to find a place in the SF Bay Area that has decent italian subs (NOT made with sourdough or mayo/mustard!) like the ones back home. I may as well be Diogenes, looking for the last honest man.

Lewistown has the same problem because there's just nothing for the kids to look forward to. It's been really bad since 2000. Wadsworth, Ohio (four hours to the west, about two and a half from Butler) is a little better but it has the same problems. If you're not college bound, you go into the service or you're toast.

278   1sfrenter   2012 Mar 2, 6:29am  

Definition of HOMOPHOBIA, Mirriam Websters

ho·mo·pho·bic adjective

irrational fear of, aversion to, or discrimination against homosexuality or homosexuals

First Known Use of HOMOPHOBIA
1969

Discrimination, clear and simple.

279   1sfrenter   2012 Mar 2, 6:30am  

rootvg says

I don't like them. I think they're subhuman. They're chronically angry at the world, perpetually unstable emotionally and aspire to corrupt everything they touch. They hate middle America and everything it stands for.

big·ot
noun \ˈbi-gət\
: a person who is obstinately or intolerantly devoted to his or her own opinions and prejudices; especially : one who regards or treats the members of a group (as a racial or ethnic group) with hatred and intolerance
— big·ot·ed \-gə-təd\ adjective

280   freak80   2012 Mar 2, 6:45am  

Anyone can invent a word. If it "catches on", it might even end up in the dictionary.

The word "Santorum" has an alternate definition. Will it make it into the dictionary?

It's a good tactic. Other groups have taken notice. So we now have the term "Islamophobia." I wonder how long before that one makes it into the dictionary.

If our banker overlords were smart, they'd coin the term "Bankerphobia."

Bankers: "you can't regulate us! That's Bankerphobia!"

281   rootvg   2012 Mar 2, 6:47am  

1sfrenter says

Definition of HOMOPHOBIA, Mirriam Websters

ho·mo·pho·bic adjective

irrational fear of, aversion to, or discrimination against homosexuality or homosexuals

First Known Use of HOMOPHOBIA

1969

Discrimination, clear and simple.

First of all, I told you that when this conversation started that I wouldn't be susceptible to your or anyone else's mindscrewing. I've been posting in forums for a VERY, VERY long time. I know what I'm doing.

1969 was just about at the same time Stonewall happened and the counterculture thing started to gel. It was part of the whole sixties thing...and it was also the progressive policies of that era which provided the foundation for the fiscal nightmare we face today.

SF is loaded with aging hippies whose money and influence allow them to make yet another statement of rebellion before they die. They're still pissed off about Nixon and what he did to McGovern in 1972. That's not my problem and it's not going to be.

Why do you think KQED advertises for people to put them in their wills and trusts? Just who do you think has those kinds of resources and would leave them to a fucking public television station?

Did you also know SF was at one time a Republican town? Yes! Before the military started discharging faggots here and the whole sixties counter culture thing happened and the tech boom began in the late fifties, SF was a middle class/working class town. I doubt it will ever be that way again.

282   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Mar 2, 6:53am  

tiny tina says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

It's the same as rent. It fit our budget. We like it.

That's all that matters. I wouldn't worry about some guy on the Internet saying buying in 3 years would be better (like he knows the future). Particularly, when he ends with: "I can only hope."

Hmm. Now you are taking comments out of context. I said "I can only hope" in reference to humanity returning as the prices get adjusted back to the historical averages. I am betting my own money on that happening, so it is much stronger than hope. The humanity reference was actually with people like you in mind, that divert the topic from substance to personal attacks. It shows how little you have to substantiate any claim you make.

283   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Mar 2, 7:00am  

tiny tina says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

It's the same as rent. It fit our budget. We like it.

That's all that matters. I wouldn't worry about some guy on the Internet saying buying in 3 years would be better (like he knows the future). Particularly, when he ends with: "I can only hope."

If you really get down to it, it is not the same as rent. It has been proven many times by many people here. If someone just doesn't want to listen to the obvious then nothing we can do. The question is if you really don't care about losing savings potential in exchange for not having to be a house renter. There are small changes that happen when you rent money instead of a house, but if these changes affect you psychologically and make your life better then do it. Stop saying you did it for financial reasons (that shows you don't know how to add). Say you are doing it for perfectly valid reasons that you believe in and your life gets better because of them. Just because it costs you more for something doesn't mean it is the wrong thing.

To hammer the point home. If all of a sudden I was put in a 600k house in Danville that can only be rented for $2500/mth, I would immediately put it up for sale and take the money and run. I would rent the equivalent house down the road and be pecfectly fine doing it. Not everyone agrees, and that is fine, we need all kinds and I'm happy people overpay, it keeps the Ponzi scheme going for a while longer. While I wait, I just keep getting in a stronger and stronger financial position. Fine by me.

284   rootvg   2012 Mar 2, 7:07am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

tiny tina says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

It's the same as rent. It fit our budget. We like it.

That's all that matters. I wouldn't worry about some guy on the Internet saying buying in 3 years would be better (like he knows the future). Particularly, when he ends with: "I can only hope."

Hmm. Now you are taking comments out of context. I said "I can only hope" in reference to humanity returning as the prices get adjusted back to the historical averages. I am betting my own money on that happening, so it is much stronger than hope. The humanity reference was actually with people like you in mind, that divert the topic from substance to personal attacks. It shows how little you have to substantiate any claim you make.

During the Civil War, people said Lincoln could never put Humpty Dumpty back together again. There are still people in the south who are unhappy with the way he did it...but he did it.

During the Great Depression, people said America was over...and it wasn't. We came back to fight a world war on two fronts AND help the British save themselves from Hitler. Even today, it remains a stunning logistical achievement in world history and testament to our abilities.

During the early sixties, Nikita Khrushchev was banging his shoe on a podium and saying they would bury us. Kids were subject to drills where they would crawl under their desks in school while sirens blared around them. Today, the Soviet Union no longer exists and there's even talk of Castro's brother opening up Cuba simply because there's no Soviet sugar daddy for them to lean on anymore.

Winston Churchill said more than once that Americans always eventually do the right thing, when all other avenues have been exhausted. I still don't know if that was a compliment or backhanded insult but in either case, he was right.

I really think we're gonna be fine.

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