patrick.net

dodgerfanjohn says

Dunross, my prediction is your charts and links will be completely ignored, or explained away and dismissed as though you posted complete fluff.

If I wore a realtors hat.

The graphs posted are confusing and not conclusive. The scale is all wrong and deceptive. If you change the change the Y-axis to increments of 100K then the lines actually look flat. If you squint hard enough and tilt you head then it appears to be rising! We all know that house prices ONLY rise, so there you have it folks. They are just following the historic norm (by historic I means only the time window where it was actually rising).

The Distressed loans bar graphs are just silly. Who cares about distressed homes. They have very little, if any, effect on real house values. For every distressed house in California there is another Facebook millionaire ready to buy it. That doesn't even take into account all the Asians in Cupertino that have recently paid off their mortgage and looking for that 2nd home. The sky is the limit and distressed home volume is a joke when you look at real demand.

Realtor hat off (Jesus that hurt my head)

wthrfrk80 says

Overpriced RE will continue to lose value in real terms, even as prices remain constant in nominal terms.

Nevertheless, we needed a place to live that was safe and quiet and suited our needs. Because of the unique situation in which we bought, it'll end up being the same as rent without the nasty tax bill every Spring. My boss has a Bachelors in Computer Science, does taxes as a side business and said it helped his kids immensely when they both bought last year. My CPA said it was a good idea because of what we did and the way we did it.

We're good to go.

Here is another graph from the Dr., showing that the foreclosure inventory pipeline has grown almost 50% since 2009:

So, which particular claim from our "Realtor Distrusting" friend, haven't I proved with my data?

Just imagine if all those FC dwellers had to pay something for shelter every month. I wonder, just wonder, how much that would hurt our strong economy. Not paying their mortgage and having no accountability is great for their disposable income.

So the guy from Calculated Risk who called bottom last month is he one of these "realtors in disguise"?

toothfairy says

So the guy from Calculated Risk who called bottom last month is he one of these "realtors in disguise"?

No, Bill McBride isn't a realtor. I listened to him interviewed on a radio show recently and he believes that the "bottom" is likely in, with prices reaching their lows in Nov-Jan. He expects Case-Shiller and the other indexes will start showing gains later on this Spring and Summer (there is a reporting lag).

He also believed that national home prices are very likely at bottom, but that the more bubbly areas will probably still see more declines. And by saying prices are at bottom, he is NOT saying that he expects them to start going back up.

One of his main arguments is that inventory is very very low - and that he doesn't see the supply of homes for sale growing all that much going forward. Pricing is Supply and Demand. So, if the supply stays limited, we probably will see flat or even higher prices.

It is a fact that inventory is very low. And I am already seeing price-strength this Spring, just because there is nothing for sale. Demand is weak, but Supply is even weaker. Until there is a policy shift, or a change in social mood where lots of people start listing their homes as short sales, we will continue to have limited inventory.

Point is, even though he is discounting the enormous "shadow inventory" that's out there, it wouldn't be wise to bet against Bill McBride.

It's hard to know what will happen since the market is so distorted by things like "extend and pretend" and ultra-low interest rates.

NTR is almost ready for my Ignore list, along with AngryCloud, AngryDan, and StonedArtimusMaxtor.

Of course, NTR has changed his/her name roughly every 24 hours for the past week, so maybe the Ignore option won't work unless Patrick stops allowing users to constantly change names.

Never Trust Realtors says:

"WRONG again.

The security interest exists into perpetuity until it is satisfied."

NTR, under your theory, how is the security interest established as being perfected?

The thing with many recent immigrants/new citizens is that they are still willing to buy a house at extreme prices and not spend money on anything else. Just work and pour the money into the mortgage.

Not many other folks are still willing to do that. We will have to wait and see how this goes.

dunnross says

These are just realtor trolls, trying to use scare tactics to shore up some more business. When will they realize that their immature coercion has long been passé, and is no longer effective around here

Here here...

lostand confused says

The thing with many recent immigrants/new citizens is that they are still willing to buy a house at extreme prices and not spend money on anything else. Just work and pour the money into the mortgage.
Not many other folks are still willing to do that. We will have to wait and see how this goes.

Could you say the same for immigrants from decades past. Perhaps it not immigrants but rather migrants from the east coast.. Connecticut, New Jersey, New York. I certainly have seen and spoken to lots of new people here from the east coast.
And many wrongly believe CA prices have always been higher.

For realtors... "the end justify the means".

wthrfrk80 says

It's hard to know

I actually think it has never been an easier time "to know" where we are headed. Huge shadow inventory, very low real buyers, stagnant income levels, massive unemployment, historically huge deficits and debt, currency debasement, etc. etc. There is not one positive thing in this country that would contribute to a bull market in housing. At best we skip along avoiding another crash while our currency and savings go to hell. It is really just a transfer of wealth that is happening between two groups. The reasonable savers and greedy over-leveraged risk takers. Fairness gets kicked in the face in today's economy.

Renting for Half the Costs posts a parody and then the parody follows it up by posting the exact same thing.

Lulz.

It's not complex. Check zillow and see foreclosures v regular sales. The ratio of foreclosures keeps RISING. The median price each year keeps FALLING. You even see foreclosures rising in Carmel for god's sake.
If people are unemployed how can they save up a down payment? If they have crummy jobs how can they save up the down? If they are broke, how can they qualify for a $400K mortgage? If they studied Chicana studies at UCSC, how can they qualify for this mortgage?
I see them at Trader Joes. I look around the crowd shuffling around in there. Maybe one person in the store has the down payment for a house in his 401K. He's gonna be asked to make a fatal decision by some female someday.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

wthrfrk80 says

It's hard to know

I actually think it has never been an easier time "to know" where we are headed. Huge shadow inventory, very low real buyers, stagnant income levels, massive unemployment, historically huge deficits and debt, currency debasement, etc. etc. There is not one positive thing in this country that would contribute to a bull market in housing. At best we skip along avoiding another crash while our currency and savings go to hell. It is really just a transfer of wealth that is happening between two groups. The reasonable savers and greedy over-leveraged risk takers. Fairness gets kicked in the face in today's economy.

Martin Weiss has been screaming about savers getting kicked in the teeth at the expense of debtors for years.

Our economy has changed, unfortunately.

And as for fairness, I don't think it ever truly existed.

Here's an idea. If we want the old fashioned Democratic party back with a controlled economy protecting our markets like it did in the fifties and sixties, tell the Dems to get rid of the hard left social issues folks (filth and trash, queers, feminists, emotionally unstable personalities, people with axes to grind, environmentalists, weirdo academics running around in little beards and turtleneck sweaters riding their bikes) and just focus on getting the economy back on track. I hate to say this as a Republican but I think that would really work.

They'll never do it. Why? Because the Democratic party itself is like a grease trap in a restaurant. It collects things no one wants to deal with it. The people I mentioned above ARE the party and that's why it always seems to self destruct. That's why the Republican conventions always look like small town America and the Democratic conventions always look like the bar scene from Star Wars.

clambo says

It's not complex. Check zillow and see foreclosures v regular sales. The ratio of foreclosures keeps RISING. The median price each year keeps FALLING. You even see foreclosures rising in Carmel for god's sake.

If people are unemployed how can they save up a down payment? If they have crummy jobs how can they save up the down? If they are broke, how can they qualify for a $400K mortgage? If they studied Chicana studies at UCSC, how can they qualify for this mortgage?

I see them at Trader Joes. I look around the crowd shuffling around in there. Maybe one person in the store has the down payment for a house in his 401K. He's gonna be asked to make a fatal decision by some female someday.

Well, don't major in Chicana Studies. Don't major in Communication, Philosophy, History, Sociology or (God forbid) Social Work either.

clambo says

If they studied Chicana studies at UCSC, how can they qualify for this mortgage?

Classic! Like +1.

rootvg says

Here's an idea. If we want the old fashioned Democratic party back with a controlled economy protecting our markets like it did in the fifties and sixties, tell the Dems to get rid of the hard left social issues folks (filth and trash, queers, feminists, emotionally unstable personalities, people with axes to grind, environmentalists, weirdo academics running around in little beards and turtleneck sweaters riding their bikes) and just focus on getting the economy back on track. I hate to say this as a Republican but I think that would really work.
They'll never do it. Why? Because the Democratic party itself is like a grease trap in a restaurant. It collects things no one wants to deal with it. The people I mentioned above ARE the party and that's why it always seems to self destruct. That's why the Republican conventions always look like small town America and the Democratic conventions always look like the bar scene from Star Wars.

Yep. That's how we got the "Reagan Democrats" and the end of the New Deal Coalition. And so now we're heading back to the Robber Baron Days of a century ago. If we're not already there now.

Not that the Republican party is much better. They've been hijacked by Taliban wannabe's who think our problems are divine punishment from God rather than a fucked up economic policy.

gregpfielding says

Point is, even though he is discounting the enormous "shadow inventory" that's out there, it wouldn't be wise to bet against Bill McBride.

bill is one of the few people that make decent predictions - probably because he bases it on data and his ability to see long term trends.

having said that, there's a decent chance his bottom call is early. this housing bust is like no other.

Hysteresis says

this housing bust is like no other.

Bubble preceding this bust was just unique,hence the bust will be unique. With govt. intervention it could drag on for years. We have created phenominal debt and hence the suffering.

5. Fortress hasn't yet fallen.
6. Prices are still too high, across the board.
7. Interest rates are still too low.

dodgerfanjohn says

Renting for Half the Costs posts a parody and then the parody follows it up by posting the exact same thing.

Lulz.

I didn't know there was narration on this site. Cool.

kashif313 says

You want links or proof, look it up yourself.

I have. And I have posted them. Only they refute your "facts".

That's the bottom line.......

From that graph it looks like the high tier is still on an uward trend

If your buying in the low tier maybe prices noware the same as 2009

Your Chart says the high tier has gone from 130 to 140 since 09 which is more like 10%

dunnross says

Flag

good catch. i knew they would try to resort to these dirty tactics.

I bought a bunch of AAPL in 2009 and I'm happy with being up about 650%, and my stock funds up about 100%, but WTF, it's only money right?
Buying a rental around where I live means having tenants who are 1. Mexican illegals 2. sec. 8 weirdos 3. SSI nuts on disability (#2) 4. University students 5.assorted kooks, freaks, etc who want to fuck you out of the rent because you are the evil 1% rich.
My other dough is not in a checking account but Vanguard Bond funds, my second largest is High Yield Corporate Bond fund and it pays 6%+.
If you were rich, buying rental property is a waste of your life. If you aren't rich, you are tethering yourself to an asset that has pros and cons.
My finest "investment" so far was agreeing to take that business trip with my client to China. What was the reward? The food and the CHICKS!

Beware of realtors submitting links to their sites that include charts about how awesome the sales are in their particular area.

clambo says

Buying a rental around where I live means having tenants who are 1. Mexican illegals 2. sec. 8 weirdos 3. SSI nuts on disability (#2) 4. University students 5.assorted kooks, freaks, etc who want to fuck you out of the rent because you are the evil 1% rich.

Maybe you should consider moving to a nicer area?

thomas.wong1986 says

lostand confused says

The thing with many recent immigrants/new citizens is that they are still willing to buy a house at extreme prices and not spend money on anything else. Just work and pour the money into the mortgage.

Not many other folks are still willing to do that. We will have to wait and see how this goes.

Could you say the same for immigrants from decades past. Perhaps it not immigrants but rather migrants from the east coast.. Connecticut, New Jersey, New York. I certainly have seen and spoken to lots of new people here from the east coast.

And many wrongly believe CA prices have always been higher.

For realtors... "the end justify the means".

CA in general hasn't always been higher but northern CA, at least in our lifetime, has. Our customer engineer in Pasadena told me ten years ago that IBM always has job openings in SF/SJ that go unfilled. Most people cannot afford to live here.

rootvg says

Most people cannot afford to live here.

Many employers cannot afford to hire here.

dunnross says

And you expect us to believe that you sold it at the top. If you are so good, then show me a link, like mine, where you sold you real-estate at the top of the market in 2006 and bought gold with the money.

Boooh! That ain't gonna happen. :)

Maybe just me but it seems like most of the scare tactics are coming from people telling me not to buy a house. who are they?

bubblesitter,

it is fun to blog.

What fun is there in making someone prove himself wrong to lose his face or whatever?

We got enough of that thing going on in the national divide.

I posted the housing vs gold chart the other day. If gold is going up then housing is going up even more. Which makes sense with commodities inflation building costs will go thru the roof.

If you are really saying that buying a house in the BA in 2009 was a great idea because you think it stayed flat, then you are mistaken. All you had to do was put that down payment in gold or any reasonable stock for that matter.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/03/11/markets/sunday_lookahead/index.htm?iid=Lead

Clip taken from the above site.

"The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have more than doubled in value from bear market lows on March 9, 2009. And the Dow is up more than 97%."

You can be happy that you missed 2x of your money, but I wouldn't be. Now I have twice the down payment and houses are cheaper. It doesn't matter what you say to this, cause my position is all I care about. You keep selling to the prey, and I'll keep gaining the advantage until I feel the tide has changed.

toothfairy says

I posted the housing vs gold chart the other day. If gold is going up then housing is going up even more. Which makes sense with commodities inflation building costs will go thru the roof.

Houses are not made of gold. ;)

E-man says

So what's your hot pick for now?

BRCM (long on 1000)
PVG (long on 2000) Sell only when it equals a BA home. ;)

toothfairy says

I posted the housing vs gold chart the other day. If gold is going up then housing is going up even more. Which makes sense with commodities inflation building costs will go thru the roof.

More lessons to learn for all you housing bulls out there:

1. Gold is not a commodity. It's currency. Just because our gov't says it isn't, doesn't make it not a currency. Gold is the only honest money, so the FED can lie all they want, gold will still be money.
2. If the FED could make the gold price drop, they would have done it long time ago.
3. We are now in K-winter which is good for gold, not so much for commodities. Gold is at, or close to all-time high, where most commodities are nowhere close to the high achieved back in 2008.
4. Housing prices will not go up in inflation. In fact, inflation will kill housing, because your pay check will be spent on food and gas, not housing, and, also because interest rates will go up faster than wages.
5. This isn't like 1991 or 1979, so don't compare it to that. This is more like 1930 which you know nothing about, because you don't know anyone who lived back then.
6. Housing is not an investment. It's just a shelter.