patrick.net

I personally have several friends who have just started the process of short selling their homes so I know for sure home prices will be going down and not up. We're just in the middle stages not the end stage. Prices will continue to fall and fall harder. We might bottom out near the 1998 price range.

LAS VEGAS PRICE CHART ISSUES "STRONG BUY" SIGNAL

I just bought near Boise, ID. Houses frequently had offers the first day they hit the MLS. The only one's I was looking at were 3/2 SFR with a 2 car garage in the 50-60K range and distressed. For short sales the first offer got first shot to negotiate with the bank and all others are back up's. Lots of them coming up and lots of them in the sales process. I did see one that was first listed for about 45K get relisted for 55K. Prices seem to be creeping up slowly here but it is the houses well under 100K that get offers on day one.

YMMV.

larryboo says

I personally have several friends who have just started the process of short selling their homes so I know for sure home prices will be going down and not up

lol--yes, of course you're right. If you know 2 people, then it's for sure going to be a national trend.

LASVEGASWINNER says

LAS VEGAS PRICE CHART ISSUES "STRONG BUY" SIGNAL

PROFEESIONAL BUYERS AGENT - INVESTOR - SALES ASSOCIATE - PROPERTY MANAGER 35 years experience

LASVEGASWINNER is a shill & a troll realtard. You have been warned!

Check out his trulia profile http://trulia.com/profile/lasvegaswinner

In the city, I am looking to buy, it is hard to find something decent under 300K. Investors are buying everything below 250,000, and in one month you see the same property(ies) cosmetically upgraded listed $330K and above. Everything below $300K gets multiple offers in the first three days. The rents of small houses passed $2,000/month. Big houses are rented for $2,600 and more. How it is possible, in a city with median household income of $60,000/yr, the people can afford such rents? Houses, that have been on the market for more than 8 months, now are easly sold above asking price. Please, explain what triggered such a buyers activity? The inventory is very, very limited, but is this a reason to buy, just to buy, not because you really like the property?

Bay Area says

Please, explain what triggered such a buyers activity?

-The media has been pushing 2012 as the recovery date for years.
-The job market is "fixing" itself as unemployment runs out, but the numbers don't convey that average salary is much lower.

hahahaha. everyone has been calling the bottom since 2006.

It might be a smart idea to leave the guessing to the experts

http://wallstreetpit.com/76795-robert-shiller-i-am-optimistic-that-home-prices-could-fall-for-20-years

in 2006, many people including the Bernanke said home prices will remain flat and not fall

Down, down, down. Foreclosures keep rising in proportion to regular sales. What is so confusing? There is 1. sky high unemployment 2. local govts. laying off goldbricks 3. some towns bankrupt from excessive goldbricks 4. illegal alien anchor babies being pushed around 5. foreclosures rising, bubbling, inflating, practically bursting with goodness.
If over half the houses in your area are foreclosing or deeply underwater, and the people living there are unemployed or employed by Starbucks HOW can prices not fall more?

People need to learn these simple facts about bubbles:

1. Bubbles always deflate 100% or more.
2. Prices need to spend as much time below the mean trend-line as above. Otherwise, it wouldn't be called "the mean trend-line", now, would it?
3. True bottoms are not marked by frenzied overbidding and multiple offers. In fact, bottoms, are not formed because there are many desperate fence-sitters who just got off the fence. Bottoms are formed because there is nobody left to sell, not because there is all this buying demand.
4. Investors do not carry the market or have much control over pricing. Eventually, they need to find somebody to sell to.
5. Price discovery will continue.

suziclue says

Real Estate PricingCreeping up the last few months!

Nah. It is going to go down for another decade. I don't see any upward movement my area. No chance of v shaped recovery.

HousingBoom says

in 2006, many people including the Bernanke said home prices will remain flat and not fall

That is funny cuz Bernanke never thought we were in a bubble at all.

I also believe Bernanke is proping up the prices by keeping interest rate soooo low for sooooo long!

The general public is finally getting wind that housing prices may have bottom so they run out and buy a house priced at 2007 levels. It pretty amusing.

ThreeBays says

and 2.4% home price inflation

I don't think you should count on house price inflation at all.

Bad assumptions about ever-rising house prices are what caused this whole mess.

If the rent won't cover the mortgage right now, it's too risky to buy.

suziclue says

I also believe Bernanke is proping up the prices by keeping interest rate soooo low for sooooo long!

he's only creating the dollar bubble which will implode in the near future. bye bye US dollar

ThreeBays says

and 2.4% home price inflation

I don't think you should count on house price inflation at all.

Bad assumptions about ever-rising house prices are what caused this whole mess.

If the rent won't cover the mortgage right now, it's too risky to buy.

US home prices WILL fall to at least the year 2000 levels. It will most likely fall below that into the 1990's. The housing inventory is sickening and the impending collapse of the debtor nations (Europe, US, etc.) will turn this mess into a nightmare!!

Why not check graphs of 30-day rolling price averages on my data service:

http://patrick.net/housing/graphs.php

That part is free.

larryboo says

I personally have several friends who have just started the process of short selling their homes so I know for sure home prices will be going down and not up.

That's because "several" represents a large portion of the market you are talking about, I guess?

Personally I Zillow watch a 3/2 suburban house (Portland OR west burbs) we used to rent - In 2007 that house was 240k+ and the guy across the street from us put his house up for 220k - and after 3 years now, his price is still 220k. Down the block and around the corner there is now a house for sale for 135k which is identical to our old house and the one that was across the street. It has been for sale and relisted for a couple of months now and it stil wont sell. I'm guessing the real sale price of said houses is about 120k right now. Zillow just dropped their estimate of my bellweather house 7.5k in the last 30 days.

50% down and we're still cratering, especially in percentage terms, harder than we ever have - that does not strike me as a bottom.

As long as banks are allowed to carry these properties on their balance sheets AT FULL inflated 2007 pricing, the shadow inventory will continue to come out in drips ad drabs. There is a lot of evidence that banks are ignoring the houses that are deeply underwater and foreclosing quickly on those poor shlubs that have equity/put on a big down payment,

It's called Extend and Pretend and it's the only plan the status quo has to fend off collapse.

The people here tend to focus on the bay area, but this place has always been overpriced and always will be for a lot of reasons - all of which have been hashed over ad nauseum.

LASVEGASWINNER says

LAS VEGAS PRICE CHART ISSUES "STRONG BUY" SIGNAL

PROFEESIONAL BUYERS AGENT - INVESTOR - SALES ASSOCIATE - PROPERTY MANAGER 35 years experience

Well - at least he doesn't deny he's an agent..

http://www.trulia.com/profile/lasvegaswinner

larryboo says

I personally have several friends who have just started the process of short selling their homes so I know for sure home prices will be going down and not up. We're just in the middle stages not the end stage. Prices will continue to fall and fall harder. We might bottom out near the 1998 price range.

That depends upon where they are.

I think things are starting to loosen up. Sometime next year, the government will begin reporting inflation so it can start raising the rates. We can't keep three percent money.

Helloeeze says

I visited a beautiful home in Morgan Hill. It went pending a few days after the open house.

Looks like prices are still falling in Morgan Hill:

http://patrick.net/housing/graphs.php?uaddr=morgan+hill%2Cca&v=prices

rootvg says

larryboo says

I personally have several friends who have just started the process of short selling their homes so I know for sure home prices will be going down and not up. We're just in the middle stages not the end stage. Prices will continue to fall and fall harder. We might bottom out near the 1998 price range.

That depends upon where they are.

I think things are starting to loosen up. Sometime next year, the government will begin reporting inflation so it can start raising the rates. We can't keep three percent money.

That will be good if you are a buyer. Higher interest rates will mean lower house prices!

realitycheck says

That will be good if you are a buyer. Higher interest rates will mean lower house prices!

Assuming you're a cash buyer.

Yeah, I am seeing some odd stuff going on in the BA. A few friends & coworkers have been feeling out the market, and a most of them have said that they have been outbid on houses when they offer the asking price or a little more. It is anecdotal, sure, but I am now hearing the from more & more first-timers that are feeling the market out right now. All I can do is shrug. The most recent case was this afternoon and involved a house in Fremont. She said that the house went for $100k over asking a couple of weeks after they offered the asking price. Fremont, REALLY?

What is going on? Is this some seasonal thing where a lot of the pent-up demand is oozing out, or is the Bay Area just fucked beyond reason & prices here will always demand that buyers either be rich, or live in near-insolvency to have a house? This place blows my mind sometimes, and all I can do is shake my head at it.

MCMSinger says

LASVEGASWINNER says

LAS VEGAS PRICE CHART ISSUES "STRONG BUY" SIGNAL

PROFEESIONAL BUYERS AGENT - INVESTOR - SALES ASSOCIATE - PROPERTY MANAGER 35 years experience

LASVEGASWINNER is a shill & a troll realtard. You have been warned!

Check out his trulia profile http://trulia.com/profile/lasvegaswinner

Sure is a nice chart, but DQnews.com shows 8-15% price declines.

http://dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/Las-Vegas/RRCLNV120228.aspx

bmwman91 says

What is going on? Is this some seasonal thing where a lot of the pent-up demand is oozing out, or is the Bay Area just fucked beyond reason & prices here will always demand that buyers either be rich, or live in near-insolvency to have a house? This place blows my mind sometimes, and all I can do is shake my head at it.

If the observations are true for you, its true for others like your friends, something is indeed amiss Watson. Again, its the same tactic by realtors .. multiple bids that may not be there.
Im pretty sure the same is being used in Vegas and Miami.

hrhjuliet says

They are slick like oil and a dime a dozen. There are a few good honest ones, but they are super rare. We have a lot of friends underwater who bought here and the rest are barely making it - all of them convinced by "real estate experts" to buy. The numbers are artificial and are meant to scare you into more than you can afford. Be careful out there, and good luck. (:

get rid of the real estate tactics, then you have a chance ...

Helloeeze says

I visited a beautiful home in Morgan Hill. It went pending a few days after the open house. It was just slightly below 2004 price. A lot of homes in this area were selling at 2001 prices.

Dont bother with 2001 or 2004 prices.. you should be hitting at 1998 prices.. and if you can get it without adjustment for inflation all the better.

Why, because the other buyer did, so why cant you ?

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/14920-Dark-Star-Ct-Morgan-Hill-CA-95037/19851613_zpid/

Date Description Price % Chg $/sqft Source
2/24/2012 Sold $375,000 -- $174 Public Record
10/8/2011 Listing removed $375,000 -- $174 Realty World - Acclaim
9/24/2011 Price change $375,000 -2.60% $174 Realty World - Acclaim
7/23/2011 Price change $385,000 -3.50% $179 Realty World - Acclaim
7/6/2011 Price change $399,000 -2.70% $186 Realty World - Acclaim
6/19/2011 Price change $410,000 -3.50% $191 Realty World - Acclaim
5/28/2011 Price change $425,000 -5.60% $198 Realty World - Acclaim
5/5/2011 Listed for sale $450,000 20.00% $209 Realty World - Acclaim
3/15/2011 Listing removed $375,000 -- $174 Realty World - Acclaim
2/26/2011 Price change $375,000 -3.80% $174 Realty World - Acclaim
2/10/2011 Listed for sale $390,000 -13.30% $181 Realty World - Acclaim
5/30/2002 Sold $450,000 45.20% $209 Public Record
6/30/1998 Sold $310,000 -- $144 Public Record

thomas.wong1986 says

bmwman91 says

What is going on? Is this some seasonal thing where a lot of the pent-up demand is oozing out, or is the Bay Area just fucked beyond reason & prices here will always demand that buyers either be rich, or live in near-insolvency to have a house? This place blows my mind sometimes, and all I can do is shake my head at it.

If the observations are true for you, its true for others like your friends, something is indeed amiss Watson. Again, its the same tactic by realtors .. multiple bids that may not be there.

Im pretty sure the same is being used in Vegas and Miami.

I would love to chock it up to RE agent lies. However, I'd say that 4/5 people I have talked to said the property went pending at some price that was well over asking. I don't know what to make of this, but if it is even happening in the East Bay, then all hope is lost for this place. The place that I was born & raised has just become too ridiculous, and I think that I really do need to think about leaving. It makes me sad to think about it, but it seems to be the only logical choice. I'm an avid outdoorsman, and I love being able to skip out of work early to go running on trails up off of Page Mill and rock climb off of Skyline, in "winter". Alas, I can't compete with the fortune-seeking goobers that have never set foot on these awesome things that make this place worth living in, and instead spend all day every day in an office or in a car (which really makes me wonder why so many people talk-up the weather here...you have to be OUT to appreciate it).

Helloeeze says

They have raised the prices on the new homes compared to 5 months ago when I visited there.

See,the thing is I don't give a damn about what the price is. I just watch what the last sucker paid for it and then compare it to what another sucker paid for similar property 5 months ago. Now you know how to gauge the direction of the market? Aren't you an agent?

ThreeBays says

and 2.4% home price inflation

I don't think you should count on house price inflation at all.

Bad assumptions about ever-rising house prices are what caused this whole mess.

There is good data for at least 100 years that house prices tend to go up with inflation or slightly more. In Holland they traced data for several hundred years showing the same thing. It is perfectly reasonable to expect ever rising house prices when measured in terms of paper money which is printed in ever increasing quantities.

The whole mess was caused by people assuming appreciation *well in excess* of inflation.

That's not to say that there are some areas that are overvalued (or for that matter undervalued) today that may see price development different from inflation in the near term.

When making a comparison between buy and rent I think the reasonable thing to do is to assume the same rate of appreciation for both.

HousingBoom says

bye bye US dollar

...

US home prices WILL fall to at least the year 2000 levels. It will most likely fall below that into the 1990's.

HousingBoom has it occured to you that there is a certain amount of contradiction between these points. When you say prices will fall to 90s level what do you measure in? US Dollars? Ounces of gold?

drtor says

HousingBoom has it occured to you that there is a certain amount of contradiction between these points. When you say prices will fall to 90s level what do you measure in? US Dollars? Ounces of gold?

bmwman91 says

Alas, I can't compete with the fortune-seeking goobers that have never set foot on these awesome things that make this place worth living in, and instead spend all day every day in an office or in a car (which really makes me wonder why so many people talk-up the weather here...you have to be OUT to appreciate it).

Getting out in the wild, i doubt they can appreciate it.. so why overpay for it. Indeed very puzzling. Thats another reason not to overpay, so you have funds to persue your other goals, like hobbies, activies and passions you enjoy. NOW WE ARE TALKING! And we certainly did all those things decades past.

We are still at ballistic price levels, but the prices continue to correct downwards. Give it a year, before you make your decision to leave.

Helloeeze says

They were selling for 625,000 and now they are selling for 670,000 - same model of house. They haven't been built yet. So apparently there was enough interest for them to increase the price.

Did this alter your own perception of their value and desirability? Did it make you feel panicky and consider getting in before prices started to take-off even more?

I know of at least one Ebay seller who lists somewhat esoteric or otherwise collectible items (not off-the-shelf, but also not one-of-a-kind exotic heirlooms) at shockingly high prices. Despite that 99% of these items never sell, he keeps listing them over and over again, month after month in a bid to fix that crazy high price in the minds of prospective buyers -- the idea being that, over time, buyers will begin to associate or refer to that price point as a general baseline for that item.

It sounds like there's similar framing attempts going on there with your housing market.

Austinhousingbubble says

It's price histories in California like this that I find completely bizarre:

A good question to ask, if you were thinking of buying is why it was $400K last year and $284K in 2006...surely an inteligent buyer checked the prior prices... surely they didnt want to overpay... But there is sure some suckers out there..

11/02/2011 Sold $400,000 -- $228 Public Record
05/02/2006 Sold $284,400 -- $162 Public Record

Helloeeze says

That is pretty ridiculous unless there were massive upgrades to the house.

Yea! Massive as my big left toe!

If you bought a restored collectors car like a 1969 Z-28 Camero.. and it was cherried out just perfect ... dont you most likely see all the bills the owner has to justify his asking price?

Its clearly a swindle by the seller ? Buyer be aware !!