patrick.net

FortWayne says

We both know they won't go to 2 just like FB is unlikely to drop down to 13 in such a short time period, maybe next year they will.

Goran is the one who declared the amount and time frame, don't blame e-man.

Goran_K says

It'll hit $11-$13 by the end of the year.

There's no way any bear on this site will take e-man's bet. All talk and no action.

What about whoever is wrong stops posting on this site. E-man on one side and GoranK, Serpentor, Rentingforhalf... on the other.

tiny tina says

What about whoever is wrong stops posting on this site.

Tina,

Thanks for jumping in, but this is not a good proposal. Patrick would lose readership. Serpentor might have deep pocket, but I only have a short stack at the moment. I can afford to lose $10k without losing sleep over it because $100k of capital will be making me $10k-$12k cash on cash return a year, and that doesn't even taking into account the appreciation of the investments, which have been tremendous thanks to my lucky guess. :)

Cheers.

E-man says

I thought you're already in retirement, but only work for kicks now. :)

I will die working at my old age and just loving it.
We have alot to do, to get SV back to its mojo!
.... more now than ever!

Been busy vacationing. Only equity play was some Apple calls. I dislike FB but this doesn't translate into a burning desire to play short.

They are more safer ways to earn money, where you will at least not lose principle if the investment fails to return you a profit.

I think the chances are very good though for anyone shorting it to make a decent coin BUT...

That's if the stock doesn't get manipulated, the books don't get cooked and Fuckerberg doesn't play any funny business.

Which he is and will continue to do.

But honestly... At this point in history, you should just focus on saving money, preserving what you have and protecting your wealth along with preparing for the future gloom.

Making money today is very very VERY hard in investment. Almost impossible...

Vicente says

Been busy vacationing. Only equity play was some Apple calls. I dislike FB but this doesn't translate into a burning desire to play short.

“Eagles are dandified vultures” - Teddy Roosevelt

Nice. I don't really care for FB. I've never been on Facebook. My wife goes on there occasionally to reconnect with relatives back home. Other than that, eh.... who cares. I love RE and will stick with this hard asset play for a while.

I have to agree with E-man on this. Those who say they are sure that a company is going to have its share price drop should put their money where their mouth is...
at least short the company / sector if you are so sure.

I heard google+ is better than facebook, just currently more or less undiscovered. Facebook was founded on popularity contests, when that contest ends so does the company.

Fuckerberg made a big mistake for not selling to Google for a couple billion dollars which was a VERY VERY high offer & very generous of them.

I do not have a Facebook account (thank you very much) but any moron with one has little room to talk about it or those behind that idiotic bullshite.

E-man says

Thanks for jumping in, but this is not a good proposal. Patrick would lose readership. Serpentor might have deep pocket, but I only have a short stack at the moment. I can afford to lose $10k without losing sleep over it because $100k of capital will be making me $10k-$12k cash on cash return a year, and that doesn't even taking into account the appreciation of the investments, which have been tremendous thanks to my lucky guess. :)

These other guys don't have deep pockets, other than for pretend on the Internet. Hell, Serpentor offered to bet $100k, and then scoffed at having $100 cash these days. You would think someone willing to bet that much, might have that little lying around. I knew they would never accept a $10k bet, and now they won't accept a $0 bet. Apparently, you will have to pay them to bet you.

Facebook's model for ads is flawed. Google ads work because people use google to search. You get advertisements based on what you are searching for. People on facebook are commenting on everyone's photos in their most recent night of drinking. Google advertising actually works. An old classmate of mine pays Google 5k a month for advertisements and told me, he estimates that it generates 15k in revenue for him each month. Facebook, everyone ignores the ads.

tiny tina says

Hell, Serpentor offered to bet $100k, and then scoffed at having $100 cash these days. You would think someone willing to bet that much, might have that little lying around.

wrong. first I said I don't carry that kind of cash on me. (most people use credit cards these days) then on a later post I offered the $100k bet. are you and e-man the same person?

there's a lot of sarcasm by you and E-man regarding the FB bears, but no legit reason why you disagree. Do you own FB? why not? if you think its a good investment, why not put your money where your mouth is?

Serpent,

Betcha that you're an engineer, and they are not. I have noticed it myself, the further away from the technology that people are, the bigger "Silicon Valley" cheerleaders they become.

Heck, FB is not even a tech company. It's a media company. More like Madison Avenue than Silicon Valley.

theoakman says

Facebook's model for ads is flawed. Google ads work because people use google to search.

who cares? no one ...LOL! its all a bunch of hype over advertising nonsense.

Serpentor says

are you and e-man the same person?

That's low. I couldn't believe it came from you.

theoakman says

An old classmate of mine pays Google 5k a month for advertisements and told me, he estimates that it generates 15k in revenue for him each month.

I hope he is selling something with high margins.

Serpentor says

wrong. first I said I don't carry that kind of cash on me. (most people use credit cards these days) then on a later post I offered the $100k bet. are you and e-man the same person?

You said $100 was chickenshit and then it's too much to carry on you? To me, these points conflict, and is evidence of Internet muscles. No, I'm not e-man.

Serpentor says

there's a lot of sarcasm by you and E-man regarding the FB bears, but no legit reason why you disagree. Do you own FB? why not? if you think its a good investment, why not put your money where your mouth is?

I bought a small amount of shares at $21-ish. That's my only stake in the company. So, I guess I did put my money where my mouth is.

Are you ever going to put your money where your mouth is? You offered $100k, yet you won't accept e-man's $10k bet. Care to explain...

thomaswong.1986 says

theoakman says

Facebook's model for ads is flawed. Google ads work because people use google to search.

who cares? no one ...LOL! its all a bunch of hype over advertising nonsense.

Obviously you since you are on this thread and replying to it

Tiny Tina,

Let it go. ;)

No amount of baiting is going to make people take a bad deal.

The price point alone makes it unattractive. It's a coin toss where the "house" keeps 25%.. fuck dat .. I also don't brag about how much I made, but yes I did put my money where my mouth was and it was one of the easiest and few short term trades I've made in a long time.

Tina, I'm sorry you are losing money, you better dump that pig before the 1.4B shares flood the market. What ever possessed you to buy this POS? is this why you are interested in E-man's deal? you want someone to take a bad deal to make yourself feel better about your poor decision?

tiny tina says

You said $100 was chickenshit and then it's too much to carry on you? To me, these points conflict, and is evidence of Internet muscles. No, I'm not e-man.

yes. I don't carry cash. Welcome to the modern world.

maybe thats why you are so enamored with FB. you think its some kind of fancy innovative new tech company. LOL

Oh Tiny Tina...

Join us. Our jimmies remain steadfast against the rustling, for all eternity.

^^ bmwman, I don't get the post above. Can you explain? Yeah, English is my 2nd language so I'm a little slow sometimes.

E-man says

Tiny Tina,

Let it go. ;)

Ok. I was hoping someone would actually man up and bet you, but I guess I should have know with this bunch. It's amazing how many professional traders there are on this board who always buy at the bottom and sell at the top yet can't afford to move out of their parents' house. Oh well, good luck with your new house purchases e-man.

BMWman:

English is my 0th language and I don't understand either...

particularly the flying lawnmower gorilla one...what in the hell is that about?

E-man and swebb...

Do not allow the rustling meme to rustle your jimmies.

http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/that-really-rustled-my-jimmies

tiny tina says

Ok. I was hoping someone would actually man up and bet you, but I guess I should have know with this bunch. It's amazing how many professional traders there are on this board who always buy at the bottom and sell at the top yet can't afford to move out of their parents' house. Oh well, good luck with your new house purchases e-man.

Who DOESN'T always buy low and sell high? Not making money on stocks is for poor people.

bmwman91 says

Do not allow the rustling meme to rustle your jimmies.

http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/that-really-rustled-my-jimmies

Ahh, thanks for the translation. Does this mean I'm getting old and out of touch?

swebb says

Ahh, thanks for the translation. Does this mean I'm getting old and out of touch?

I could be wrong, but I think it just means you aren't a teenage girl.

Already down to 18.058/sh

Are people's jimmies rustled yet?

My suspicion when the next lock-up period ends...

If I had to guess, 90% or more of the available shares for shorting will be shorted, the price will not tank as expected, causing the shorters to cover and drive the price up. Then people will unload, and the price will tank just late enough that the shorters won't capitalize on it and declare, "WTF, mate?!"

Serpentor says

Are people's jimmies rustled yet?

So how do you make the lawn-mower fly again? :)

bmwman,

Based on the project growth, FB is worth around $14/share by this time next year. In a perfect world, the stock should be selling for $11.50/share now. Of course, we're not living in a perfect world. That's why it has been selling north of its value. For this reason, I'm not a buyer of FB.

On the other hand, ZNGA might be trading at $5 -$6/share this time next year based on its projected growth. I'm eyeing ZNGA now and debating on putting in a 2,000 share order for it at $2.66. Still eyeing. :)

Facebook does in fact have substantial earnings right now. It is a very profitable mid-sized corporation. The only real mistake was in how the stock was valued at IPO. I do not see them going out of business or becoming completely unprofitable.

I will be the first to admit that talking trash is good fun though. The icing on the cake is having people vehemently defend the stock price and company while having no real personal affiliation, and openly succumbing to the butt hurt.

bmwman91 says

Facebook does in fact have substantial earnings right now. It is a very profitable mid-sized corporation. The only real mistake was in how the stock was valued at IPO. I do not see them going out of business or becoming completely unprofitable.

However, the stock is over-valued. Just like AAPL has substantial earning power, but that doesn't justify the stock selling at $2,000/share now. FB will continue to tank if it doesn't increase its earnings and growth more than the projected 23% /year in the next 2-4 quarters.

bmwman91 says

I will be the first to admit that talking trash is good fun though. The icing on the cake is having people vehemently defend the stock price and company while having no real personal affiliation, and openly succumbing to the butt hurt.

Talking trash is all dandy and good, but you'd better back it up when someone called your bluff. I agree that FB has a good chance of tanking to $13, but I just disagree with the timing. That's it. At $18/share, the stock is still way too expensive compared to its earning power. Buying the stock at this price is a speculative bet. The stock is still in a downtrend and hasn't gone sideways yet.

ZNGA, on the other hand, has been going sideways for about a month now. However, it hasn't broken out of its downtrend yet. That's why I'm still waiting & debating on it.

Come on man. People has ben talking shit about the housing market on this web site. I didnt see any rules about backing it up when the bulls called. I think we pretty much agree (except for Tina) the stock is going down for the rest of the year. Any predictions on specific numbers a specific time is pure speculation. Especially when a stock is owned by so many irrational kamakazi inverters like tina.

E-Man, I have no argument with that position. Based on present earnings and what I consider likely/realistic growth, the stock price today is still too high. I have read a couple of editorial articles that say that Zuckerberg does not care about that since he still holds a very large majority of control over FB, and he is focused on the company's social mission rather than the business side. If that is the case, then the price definitely is too high right now, but investors should not be crying about it...it's sort of a "duh" thing if he has been openly stating this.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/becoming-clear-no-one-actually-read-facebook-ipo-160120121.html

In order to get in-line with the P/E ratio of the rest of NASDAQ, the FB stock price is looking at $5 per share (less when a large number of shares come on-market later this year). Will it actually go that low? I don't know, but for some reason I don't think so. I am sure that they are working on ways to cash in on mobile since that is where all of the users are going. I have no doubt that FB management is fully cognizant of this. If they are successful at that, their revenues will probably go up by a multiple or two. Time will tell though.

Serpentor says

Especially when a stock is owned by so many irrational kamakazi inverters like tina.

Bro, how can it NOT be a solid investment? I mean, even pets can have accounts! Purina pet chow ad revenue.....HELLOOOOOOO!