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Facebook lockup period


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2012 Aug 17, 2:48am   24,690 views  62 comments

by swebb   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

I have enjoyed watching the whole FB thing unfold, partly schadenfreude, I guess, but it's also just interesting (the RedHat IPO was the last one I watched so closely)

Anyway, there has been a lot of talk about the lockup provisions expiring and the potential for the market to get flooded by people who hold stock that has been so far held off the market.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/technology/schedule-of-when-facebook-insiders-employees-can-sell-stock/2012/08/17/8a7718dc-e883-11e1-9739-eef99c5fb285_story.html

In summary:

Up to 1.91 billion more shares could flood the stock market — more than four times the 421 million shares that had been trading since Facebook’s initial public offering in May.

IPO: 421 million
Thursday: 271 million shares held by early investors and directors
Unspecified date between Oct. 15 and Nov. 13: 243 million shares and stock
Nov. 14: 1.22 billion shares and stock options, about a third of which is controlled by Zuckerberg.
Dec. 14: 149 million shares held by early investors and others who participated in IPO, except Zuckerberg.
May 18, 2013: 47 million shares held by early investors

That seems like a lot to me. Obviously it's unlikely that everyone is going to dump all of their holdings (particularly Zuckerberg), but this doesn't seem good for the stock price.

It will be interesting to watch.

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1   Goran_K   2012 Aug 17, 2:51am  

It'll hit $11-$13 by the end of the year.

2   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Aug 17, 3:06am  

This is the damage that 271 million shares can do. Imagine what will happen when 1.2B become available.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ycharts/2012/08/14/golly-come-november-14-will-zuck-be-selling-facebook-shares-too/

I'll go so far as to say a nice dip into the single digits will happen (even it is during the intraday) before the end of the year. Probably around Nov 15 week.

3   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Aug 17, 3:06am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

This is the damage that 271 million shares can do. Imagine what will happen when 1.2B become available.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ycharts/2012/08/14/golly-come-november-14-will-zuck-be-selling-facebook-shares-too/

I'll go so far as to say a nice dip into the single digits will happen (even it is during the intraday) before the end of the year. Probably around Nov 15 week.

4   FortWayne   2012 Aug 17, 4:21pm  

Those shorting here will make out like its a highway robbery.

5   Eman   2012 Aug 17, 4:59pm  

Anyone of you three wants to put your money where your mouth is? I'm willing to bet that FB will not drop below $13/share by 12/31/2012. If you're up for the challenge, send $100 each to Patrick to keep. The winner will get $150, and Patrick will keep $50.

Disclaimer: I don't own any FB. I don't have a FB account, and I don't care if it goes to $0. :0)

6   thomaswong.1986   2012 Aug 17, 8:30pm  

Google EPS 20
Yahoo EPS 16
FaceBook EPS 66

current FB price 19.05

I say shave off 66% to 75% off current price to be in parity to be in-line with peer group.
Thats well under $10 and most likely at $5-6/share. This is all an advertising company! Lives and dies on AD dollars. This is not a tech company and shouldnt be treated like one.

7   Eman   2012 Aug 18, 12:37am  

thomaswong.1986 says

Google EPS 20

Yahoo EPS 16

FaceBook EPS 66

current FB price 19.05

I say shave off 66% to 75% off current price to be in parity to be in-line with peer group.

Thats well under $10 and most likely at $5-6/share. This is all an advertising company! Lives and dies on AD dollars. This is not a tech company and shouldnt be treated like one.

Thomas,

I am not disagreeing with your assessment about FB. Just for kicks, do u want to throw your hat in the ring? Only $100 gentleman bet, and the winner will donate $50 to Patrick. :)

8   anonymous   2012 Aug 18, 3:24am  

E-man says

Anyone of you three wants to put your money where your mouth is? I'm willing to bet that FB will not drop below $13/share by 12/31/2012. If you're up for the challenge, send $100 each to Patrick to keep. The winner will get $150, and Patrick will keep $50.

Disclaimer: I don't own any FB. I don't have a FB account, and I don't care if it goes to $0. :0)

Learn from your victory. Prosper from your failure.

You mean nobody wants to lay -200 on dec 31 FB 13$ put options? What a bunch of pussies!

9   Eman   2012 Aug 18, 4:15pm  

errc says

What a bunch of pussies!

They might be busy with family stuff. If they don't respond in a week, I'd say it's all hat, no cattle. :0)

10   zzyzzx   2012 Aug 20, 3:54am  

It's fun to watch Facebook stock drop!

11   Robber Baron Elite Scum   2012 Aug 20, 8:33am  

So funny how all of us here knew beforehand with 100% certainy that Facebook is a worthless over-hyped over-valued company... And anyone that is not cashing out is a stupid brain-dead retard.

And now investors have already lost a lot of money.

Is it me or does it seem like very intelligent people have usually less money than brain-dead morons who end up losing it?

12   bmwman91   2012 Aug 23, 11:29am  

Yeah, I have to say that for all the doom & gloom about FB stock, few in here seem to actually have the testicular fortitude to short it.

I don't because I have a good enough job and don't believe in a "sure thing" which effectively makes me a giant financial pussy lol.

13   Eman   2012 Aug 23, 2:23pm  

bmwman91 says

makes me a giant financial pussy.

What would that make them? Chicken? :)

14   Serpentor   2012 Aug 23, 2:45pm  

#1 $100 is chickenshit
#2 that is a shitty bet. Why would you place a bet where the "house" ie Patrick skims 25% off the pot.
#3 people wish to be anonmous.
#4 Patrick has not agreed to do this.
#5 Its a lot of work for bragging rights on the internez. this involves buying stamps + Envelops (who use snail mail these days?), getting a $100 bill (who carry that much cash these days?), finding Patrick's address (again he has not agreed to give out his address to do this), then driving to the post office.

15   FortWayne   2012 Aug 23, 2:54pm  

#6 I'm not a teenager, grown ups don't do things on internet for bragging rights. And I don't know how low it will go, 12 is probably hard in such short term.

But I don't see any future in that stock.

16   Serpentor   2012 Aug 23, 3:09pm  

$100,000 Facebook drops below today's price by the end of the year. Put up or STFU.

Chicken?

17   thomaswong.1986   2012 Aug 23, 3:22pm  

E-man says

Thomas,

I am not disagreeing with your assessment about FB. Just for kicks, do u want to throw your hat in the ring? Only $100 gentleman bet, and the winner will donate $50 to Patrick. :)

Lol! who you calling a gentleman... na! i dont gamble.. every nickel i earn goes to retirement.

18   Eman   2012 Aug 23, 5:25pm  

Serpentor says

#1 $100 is chickenshit

#2 that is a shitty bet. Why would you place a bet where the "house" ie Patrick skims 25% off the pot.

#3 people wish to be anonmous.

#4 Patrick has not agreed to do this.

#5 Its a lot of work for bragging rights on the internez. this involves buying stamps + Envelops (who use snail mail these days?), getting a $100 bill (who carry that much cash these days?), finding Patrick's address (again he has not agreed to give out his address to do this), then driving to the post office.

#1- I see. We can up the ante.
#2- Patrick is not skimming the pot. It's just a good gesture. You don't have to donate if you don't want to.
#3- Unless you have something to hide. I don't. I've had lunch with Patrick a couple of times already. He knows how I look like & where I live. You don't have to reveal your identity to any one other than Patrick.
#4- Well, we can ask him. It doesn't hurt to ask.
#5- I personally don't believe it's a lot of work. I believe he has his PO Box mailing address on this site.

Excuses, excuses, excuses......

19   Eman   2012 Aug 23, 5:27pm  

FortWayne says

#6 I'm not a teenager, grown ups don't do things on internet for bragging rights. And I don't know how low it will go, 12 is probably hard in such short term.

But I don't see any future in that stock.

Freedom 1789-2012

I don't know either, but I don't like it when people just keep trashing a company without having the balls to put their money where their mouth is. It's not about bragging right. It's about putting your money where your mouth is. Talk is cheap. It's your action that counts.

20   Eman   2012 Aug 23, 5:32pm  

Serpentor says

$100,000 Facebook drops below today's price by the end of the year. Put up or STFU.

Chicken?

Well, the bet is that FB will drop below $13 by the end of the year. If you're up for the challenge, let's go. A lot of my money is already tied up in real estate, but I have $10k that I can burn now. Do you want to mail a $10k check to Patrick tomorrow morning?

As I mentioned above, I don't own any FB, but I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is. Are you?

21   Eman   2012 Aug 23, 5:34pm  

thomaswong.1986 says

E-man says

Thomas,

I am not disagreeing with your assessment about FB. Just for kicks, do u want to throw your hat in the ring? Only $100 gentleman bet, and the winner will donate $50 to Patrick. :)

Lol! who you calling a gentleman... na! i dont gamble.. every nickel i earn goes to retirement.

Haha. You're pretty conservative with your money so it's totally understandable. I thought you're already in retirement, but only work for kicks now. :)

22   FortWayne   2012 Aug 24, 2:01am  

E-man says

Well, the bet is that FB will drop below $13 by the end of the year. If you're up for the challenge, let's go. A lot of my money is already tied up in real estate, but I have $10k that I can burn now. Do you want to mail a $10k check to Patrick tomorrow morning?

E-man but you are making an unrealistic bet. It's a crappy deal. How about you bet me that BOA stock will drop to $2 in next 3 weeks? We both know they won't go to 2 just like FB is unlikely to drop down to 13 in such a short time period, maybe next year they will.

23   tiny tina   2012 Aug 24, 2:11am  

FortWayne says

We both know they won't go to 2 just like FB is unlikely to drop down to 13 in such a short time period, maybe next year they will.

Goran is the one who declared the amount and time frame, don't blame e-man.

Goran_K says

It'll hit $11-$13 by the end of the year.

There's no way any bear on this site will take e-man's bet. All talk and no action.

What about whoever is wrong stops posting on this site. E-man on one side and GoranK, Serpentor, Rentingforhalf... on the other.

24   Eman   2012 Aug 24, 1:28pm  

tiny tina says

What about whoever is wrong stops posting on this site.

Tina,

Thanks for jumping in, but this is not a good proposal. Patrick would lose readership. Serpentor might have deep pocket, but I only have a short stack at the moment. I can afford to lose $10k without losing sleep over it because $100k of capital will be making me $10k-$12k cash on cash return a year, and that doesn't even taking into account the appreciation of the investments, which have been tremendous thanks to my lucky guess. :)

Cheers.

25   thomaswong.1986   2012 Aug 24, 3:13pm  

E-man says

I thought you're already in retirement, but only work for kicks now. :)

I will die working at my old age and just loving it.
We have alot to do, to get SV back to its mojo!
.... more now than ever!

26   Vicente   2012 Aug 24, 3:16pm  

Been busy vacationing. Only equity play was some Apple calls. I dislike FB but this doesn't translate into a burning desire to play short.

27   Robber Baron Elite Scum   2012 Aug 24, 7:43pm  

They are more safer ways to earn money, where you will at least not lose principle if the investment fails to return you a profit.

I think the chances are very good though for anyone shorting it to make a decent coin BUT...

That's if the stock doesn't get manipulated, the books don't get cooked and Fuckerberg doesn't play any funny business.

Which he is and will continue to do.

But honestly... At this point in history, you should just focus on saving money, preserving what you have and protecting your wealth along with preparing for the future gloom.

Making money today is very very VERY hard in investment. Almost impossible...

28   Eman   2012 Aug 25, 12:32am  

Vicente says

Been busy vacationing. Only equity play was some Apple calls. I dislike FB but this doesn't translate into a burning desire to play short.

“Eagles are dandified vultures” - Teddy Roosevelt

Nice. I don't really care for FB. I've never been on Facebook. My wife goes on there occasionally to reconnect with relatives back home. Other than that, eh.... who cares. I love RE and will stick with this hard asset play for a while.

29   American in Japan   2012 Aug 25, 12:54am  

I have to agree with E-man on this. Those who say they are sure that a company is going to have its share price drop should put their money where their mouth is...
at least short the company / sector if you are so sure.

30   everything   2012 Aug 25, 1:32am  

I heard google+ is better than facebook, just currently more or less undiscovered. Facebook was founded on popularity contests, when that contest ends so does the company.

31   Robber Baron Elite Scum   2012 Aug 25, 7:05am  

Fuckerberg made a big mistake for not selling to Google for a couple billion dollars which was a VERY VERY high offer & very generous of them.

32   37108605   2012 Aug 25, 10:04pm  

I do not have a Facebook account (thank you very much) but any moron with one has little room to talk about it or those behind that idiotic bullshite.

33   tiny tina   2012 Aug 27, 3:27am  

E-man says

Thanks for jumping in, but this is not a good proposal. Patrick would lose readership. Serpentor might have deep pocket, but I only have a short stack at the moment. I can afford to lose $10k without losing sleep over it because $100k of capital will be making me $10k-$12k cash on cash return a year, and that doesn't even taking into account the appreciation of the investments, which have been tremendous thanks to my lucky guess. :)

These other guys don't have deep pockets, other than for pretend on the Internet. Hell, Serpentor offered to bet $100k, and then scoffed at having $100 cash these days. You would think someone willing to bet that much, might have that little lying around. I knew they would never accept a $10k bet, and now they won't accept a $0 bet. Apparently, you will have to pay them to bet you.

34   theoakman   2012 Aug 27, 12:20pm  

Facebook's model for ads is flawed. Google ads work because people use google to search. You get advertisements based on what you are searching for. People on facebook are commenting on everyone's photos in their most recent night of drinking. Google advertising actually works. An old classmate of mine pays Google 5k a month for advertisements and told me, he estimates that it generates 15k in revenue for him each month. Facebook, everyone ignores the ads.

35   Serpentor   2012 Aug 27, 12:34pm  

tiny tina says

Hell, Serpentor offered to bet $100k, and then scoffed at having $100 cash these days. You would think someone willing to bet that much, might have that little lying around.

wrong. first I said I don't carry that kind of cash on me. (most people use credit cards these days) then on a later post I offered the $100k bet. are you and e-man the same person?

there's a lot of sarcasm by you and E-man regarding the FB bears, but no legit reason why you disagree. Do you own FB? why not? if you think its a good investment, why not put your money where your mouth is?

36   B.A.C.A.H.   2012 Aug 27, 3:11pm  

Serpent,

Betcha that you're an engineer, and they are not. I have noticed it myself, the further away from the technology that people are, the bigger "Silicon Valley" cheerleaders they become.

Heck, FB is not even a tech company. It's a media company. More like Madison Avenue than Silicon Valley.

37   thomaswong.1986   2012 Aug 27, 4:46pm  

theoakman says

Facebook's model for ads is flawed. Google ads work because people use google to search.

who cares? no one ...LOL! its all a bunch of hype over advertising nonsense.

38   Eman   2012 Aug 27, 4:50pm  

Serpentor says

are you and e-man the same person?

That's low. I couldn't believe it came from you.

39   swebb   2012 Aug 28, 1:51am  

theoakman says

An old classmate of mine pays Google 5k a month for advertisements and told me, he estimates that it generates 15k in revenue for him each month.

I hope he is selling something with high margins.

40   tiny tina   2012 Aug 28, 6:28am  

Serpentor says

wrong. first I said I don't carry that kind of cash on me. (most people use credit cards these days) then on a later post I offered the $100k bet. are you and e-man the same person?

You said $100 was chickenshit and then it's too much to carry on you? To me, these points conflict, and is evidence of Internet muscles. No, I'm not e-man.

Serpentor says

there's a lot of sarcasm by you and E-man regarding the FB bears, but no legit reason why you disagree. Do you own FB? why not? if you think its a good investment, why not put your money where your mouth is?

I bought a small amount of shares at $21-ish. That's my only stake in the company. So, I guess I did put my money where my mouth is.

Are you ever going to put your money where your mouth is? You offered $100k, yet you won't accept e-man's $10k bet. Care to explain...

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