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Ahh, thanks for the translation. Does this mean I'm getting old and out of touch?
I could be wrong, but I think it just means you aren't a teenage girl.
bmwman91
2012 Aug 31, 5:48pm
My suspicion when the next lock-up period ends...
If I had to guess, 90% or more of the available shares for shorting will be shorted, the price will not tank as expected, causing the shorters to cover and drive the price up. Then people will unload, and the price will tank just late enough that the shorters won't capitalize on it and declare, "WTF, mate?!"
Eman
2012 Sep 1, 9:31am
bmwman,
Based on the project growth, FB is worth around $14/share by this time next year. In a perfect world, the stock should be selling for $11.50/share now. Of course, we're not living in a perfect world. That's why it has been selling north of its value. For this reason, I'm not a buyer of FB.
On the other hand, ZNGA might be trading at $5 -$6/share this time next year based on its projected growth. I'm eyeing ZNGA now and debating on putting in a 2,000 share order for it at $2.66. Still eyeing. :)
bmwman91
2012 Sep 1, 10:48am
Facebook does in fact have substantial earnings right now. It is a very profitable mid-sized corporation. The only real mistake was in how the stock was valued at IPO. I do not see them going out of business or becoming completely unprofitable.
I will be the first to admit that talking trash is good fun though. The icing on the cake is having people vehemently defend the stock price and company while having no real personal affiliation, and openly succumbing to the butt hurt.
Eman
2012 Sep 1, 6:39pm
Facebook does in fact have substantial earnings right now. It is a very profitable mid-sized corporation. The only real mistake was in how the stock was valued at IPO. I do not see them going out of business or becoming completely unprofitable.
However, the stock is over-valued. Just like AAPL has substantial earning power, but that doesn't justify the stock selling at $2,000/share now. FB will continue to tank if it doesn't increase its earnings and growth more than the projected 23% /year in the next 2-4 quarters.
I will be the first to admit that talking trash is good fun though. The icing on the cake is having people vehemently defend the stock price and company while having no real personal affiliation, and openly succumbing to the butt hurt.
Talking trash is all dandy and good, but you'd better back it up when someone called your bluff. I agree that FB has a good chance of tanking to $13, but I just disagree with the timing. That's it. At $18/share, the stock is still way too expensive compared to its earning power. Buying the stock at this price is a speculative bet. The stock is still in a downtrend and hasn't gone sideways yet.
ZNGA, on the other hand, has been going sideways for about a month now. However, it hasn't broken out of its downtrend yet. That's why I'm still waiting & debating on it.
Serpentor
2012 Sep 2, 2:50am
Come on man. People has ben talking shit about the housing market on this web site. I didnt see any rules about backing it up when the bulls called. I think we pretty much agree (except for Tina) the stock is going down for the rest of the year. Any predictions on specific numbers a specific time is pure speculation. Especially when a stock is owned by so many irrational kamakazi inverters like tina.
bmwman91
2012 Sep 2, 2:50am
E-Man, I have no argument with that position. Based on present earnings and what I consider likely/realistic growth, the stock price today is still too high. I have read a couple of editorial articles that say that Zuckerberg does not care about that since he still holds a very large majority of control over FB, and he is focused on the company's social mission rather than the business side. If that is the case, then the price definitely is too high right now, but investors should not be crying about it...it's sort of a "duh" thing if he has been openly stating this.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/becoming-clear-no-one-actually-read-facebook-ipo-160120121.html
In order to get in-line with the P/E ratio of the rest of NASDAQ, the FB stock price is looking at $5 per share (less when a large number of shares come on-market later this year). Will it actually go that low? I don't know, but for some reason I don't think so. I am sure that they are working on ways to cash in on mobile since that is where all of the users are going. I have no doubt that FB management is fully cognizant of this. If they are successful at that, their revenues will probably go up by a multiple or two. Time will tell though.
bmwman91
2012 Sep 2, 2:52am
Especially when a stock is owned by so many irrational kamakazi inverters like tina.
Bro, how can it NOT be a solid investment? I mean, even pets can have accounts! Purina pet chow ad revenue.....HELLOOOOOOO!
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I have enjoyed watching the whole FB thing unfold, partly schadenfreude, I guess, but it's also just interesting (the RedHat IPO was the last one I watched so closely)
Anyway, there has been a lot of talk about the lockup provisions expiring and the potential for the market to get flooded by people who hold stock that has been so far held off the market.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/technology/schedule-of-when-facebook-insiders-employees-can-sell-stock/2012/08/17/8a7718dc-e883-11e1-9739-eef99c5fb285_story.html
In summary:
Up to 1.91 billion more shares could flood the stock market — more than four times the 421 million shares that had been trading since Facebook’s initial public offering in May.
IPO: 421 million
Thursday: 271 million shares held by early investors and directors
Unspecified date between Oct. 15 and Nov. 13: 243 million shares and stock
Nov. 14: 1.22 billion shares and stock options, about a third of which is controlled by Zuckerberg.
Dec. 14: 149 million shares held by early investors and others who participated in IPO, except Zuckerberg.
May 18, 2013: 47 million shares held by early investors
That seems like a lot to me. Obviously it's unlikely that everyone is going to dump all of their holdings (particularly Zuckerberg), but this doesn't seem good for the stock price.
It will be interesting to watch.