patrick.net

Goran_K says

E-man, do you have figures for SoCal?

Wow, Irvine home prices are expensive. It seems like you guys have more condos & townhomes than us here in San Jose.

Last quarter,

630 = total sales for SFH & condos/townhomes
470 = regular sales
119 = short sales
41 = bank owned sales

The last 3 months,

69 properties were foreclosed.
45 were taken back by the banks.
24 were sold to investors.

There are a total 534 properties that are in the process of foreclosure. 319 received their notice of trustee sale. 215 received a notice of default.

Your market is up about 10% YoY on the median price and 14% on average price. Your active housing inventory is about 3 months. Your market is hot, but not as hot as the Bay Area. We have just over 1 month of active housing inventory.

That's all I got. Nite nite.

E-man says

Wow, Irvine home prices are expensive. It seems like you guys have more condos & townhomes than us here in San Jose.

Last quarter,

630 = total sales for SFH & condos/townhomes
470 = regular sales
119 = short sales
41 = bank owned sales

The last 3 months,

69 properties were foreclosed.
45 were taken back by the banks.
24 were sold to investors.

There are a total 534 properties that are in the process of foreclosure. 319 received their notice of trustee sale. 215 received a notice of default.

Your market is up about 10% YoY on the median price and 14% on average price. Your active housing inventory is about 3 months. Your market is hot, but not as hot as the Bay Area. We have just over 1 month of active housing inventory.

That's all I got. Nite nite.

Thanks for the numbers E-man. Even if we don't quite agree on where the market will go, it's good to cross check, and examine all the data that is available. Cheers.

Wow, 534 properties in some process of foreclosure. Remember, Redfin only shows 381 active listings (or about 1.5 months of inventory).

Very interesting market.

Goran_K says

Very interesting market.

Indeed. It is very hard to get correct inventory snap shot. I only gauge the market by sale price of the mid to high tier(low end is highly rigged by investors/flippers) - of course by redfin data.

bubblesitter says

Indeed. It is very hard to get correct inventory snap shot. I only gauge the market by sale price of the mid to high tier(low end is highly rigged by investors/flippers) - of course by redfin data.

It's very difficult and I live a few blocks from Corelogic. :)

But E-man's numbers sort of strengthen my argument that shadow inventory isn't some fantasy, it's a legit threat to true market recovery.

War says

In fact the massive unsold empty inventory lends a boost to a market recovery.

Yeah, that's kind of what I meant. I hope they liquidate it soon.

Goran_K says

Yeah, that's kind of what I meant. I hope they liquidate it soon.

A massive spike in prices in stock market and a 1% to 2% interest rate hike could send this housing market into serious trouble - don't forget the fact that post bubble buyers are surviving by refi'ing their mortgages.